
ESPN.com asked six of their "experts" to predict the outcomes of the first round matchups.
In the St. Louis / Vancouver series, two of the six "experts" said it would be over in five games. Three said six games and one had it going the distance. And all six of them had Vancouver winning the series.
I can understand some of them picking Vancouver, or even most of them (it is ESPN afterall). Vancouver had a very good season and finished 3rd overall in the west and had an outstanding record since January 1st. So kudos to them on their season. But all six picking Vancouver? Come on. This isn't a #1 seed vs. a #8 seed scenerio here.
And speaking of records since January 1st...you know who had an even better record than the Canucks since the first of the year? Hmmm...who was it...let me think...I think it was...THE ST. LOUIS BLUES. As a matter of fact, the Blues had the BEST RECORD in the NHL since January 1st.
Vancouver. All six of them, eh?
Hmmm...
If you look around the different sports sites and blogs, almost nobody is picking St. Louis to win their first round series. Does that make sense to you? So let me get this straight... the best, number one, numero uno, king of the hill team in the NHL over the entire 2nd half of the season (and to tell you the truth, going into the playoffs I'd rather have the best record in the NHL over the 2nd half instead of the 1st half) is all of a sudden going to get beaten soundly and decisively?
I don't see it.
Maybe it's because the experts intently watched the regular season matchups between Vancouver and St. Louis and that's how they formed their opinions. So let's look at the regular season matchups.
Jan. 9th @ VancouverBlues - 6 ... Canucks - 4The Blues outshot Vancouver, 36-22
The Blues won the faceoff battle, 34-23
St. Louis was 1 for 5 on the PP
Vancouver was 1 for 2 on the PP
Feb. 10th @ St. LouisCanucks - 6 ... Blues - 4Vancouver outshot St. Louis 30-28
Vancouver won the faceoff battle, 42-32
St. Louis was 2 for 3 on the PP
Vancouver was 2 for 5 on the PP
Mar. 19th @ VancouverSt. Louis - 0 ... Vancouver - 3St. Louis outshot Vancouver, 30-21
Vancouver won the faceoff battle, 30-28
St. Louis was 0 for 5 on the PP
Vancouver was 0 for 3 on the PP
Mar. 26th @ St. LouisVancouver - 2 ... St. Louis - 4St. Louis outshot Vancouver, 32-23
Vancouver won the faceoff battle, 29-22
St. Louis was 2 for 6 on the PP.
Vancouver was 0 for 5 on the PP.
Head to head for the season:They split the season series, 2-2.
St. Louis outshot Vancouver - 126-105
Vancouver outscored St. Louis 15-14
St. Louis was 5 for 19 on the PP (26%)
Vancouver was 3 for 15 on the PP (20%)
Vancouver Save %: .889
St. Louis Save %: .857
More often than not, whoever wins a playoff series will boil down to who has the better goaltending and special teams play. Vancouver has a world class goaltender in Roberto Luongo, but St. Louis has the hottest goalie in the league since he took over for Manny Legace in mid-January. So who does that give an edge to? Most people are saying Vancouver has the edge in net, but not if you look at the stats. Luongo and Mason's stats are almost identical for the season. So Vancouver gets the edge in net because of Luongo's "superman" reputation?
Hogwash.
I could understand it if Luongo had a Stanley Cup or two under his belt already and had tons of playoff experience. But he doesn't...and he doesn't. He has one playoff series win to his name...one. So let's not designate him as Patrick Roy just yet.
So yeah, I'm going to say it...goaltending is a PUSH. Wanna fight about it?
So that leaves special teams as the other main area that can easily win a series.
Power Play:St. Louis: 20.5% (4th overall in the conference)
Vancouver: 18.8% (8th overall in the conference)
Penalty Kill:St. Louis: 83.8% (2nd overall in the conference)
Vancouver: 81.4% (8th overall in the conference)
Again, even though the Blues finished much higher than Vancouver on the PP an PK, the actual percentages are pretty close. But, the Blues have to like their special teams in this series considering their power play stats against Vancouver (26%) are better than their #4 in the conference season average (20.4%).
St. Louis has been playing in high-pressure, playoff-like games for over two months which has seen them charge out of the basement of the Western conference. And when the smoke had cleared and the regular season was over, the Blues were sitting in 6th place. The fact that this young team was able to play so well for so long in stressfull, "must win" type of situations, says a lot about the makeup of this team. They should be prepared for the playoffs.
Contrary to what most of the "experts" are implying in their predictions, this Blues team is not a bad team that got hot over the last couple weeks and snuck into the playoffs. St. Louis has been on fire for 40 games...which is half of the season. The formula was simple. A goaltending change was made, they got a few key guys back from injuries, and the young players started to develop. A lot of Blues fans felt the Blues would challenge for a playoff spot this season, but a ridiculous amount of injuries and some inconsistent goaltending from Manny Legace (sorry Manny, but you were playing poorly) was at the root of the Blues' troubles and caused them to sink to last place in the conference in January.
This Blues team is a completely different team than the one you saw in December.
Prediction:St. Louis is the harder working team and their forecheck can be relentless. If the Blues continue their red hot play and continue to get good goaltending from Mason, I think the edge in special teams will see the Blues taking this series in six games. That's not a knock on Vancouver. They are a very good team, but they are going up against the best team in the NHL since January 1st and the Canucks will have their hands full. Luongo is certainly capable of winning this series on his own...but then again...based on how Mason has played this year, he could very well steal the series for St. Louis.
May the best team win.
Go Blues.