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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:27 am 
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Woooohoooo! :D

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:33 am 
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WOOOHOOOOO!!!!!!! yes!!!! It's aboot f'n time!!!!:D :D :D :D :letsgoblues: :banana: :carrot: :banana: :carrot: :banana: :carrot:

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:37 am 
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Anyone have confirmation about how the draft will work? Is everyone going to get a shot at Crosby, will it be weighted lottery? Are we going to have to wait until after this thing is ratified to find out?


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:38 am 
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Well OS it looks like you got your wish for a semi weighted draft. Its as close to acomprimise of our arguement as you can get.

Here is a colloection of posts from hf with analysis: (im Not sying they are right, but im sure they are close.) Sorry no link to a solid evidence.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
McKenzie: DRAFT LOTTERY FINAL
Each team starts with 3 balls.

Eah playoff appearance in last 3 yrs = lose 1 ball.

Minus 1 ball for any #1 pick in last 4 years (FLA's pick traded counts vs. FLA).

Minimum 1 ball per team.

7 round snake draft.

Next Thursday, Jul. 21.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Buf 3
CBJ 3
NYR 3
Pit 3
Ana 2
Atl 2
Cgy 2
Car 2
Chi 2
Edm 2
LAK 2
Min 2
Nsh 2
Phx 2
Bos 1
Col 1
Dal 1
Det 1
Fla 1
Mtl 1
NJD 1
NYI 1
Ott 1
Phi 1
Stl 1
SJS 1
Tam 1
Tor 1
Van 1
Wsh 1

48 balls total

------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Some quick odds, using Steadfast's calculations for number of balls per team:

Best chance any team has at Crosby: 6.3%
Least chance any team has at Crosby: 2.1%
Chance of Crosby going to a Canadian team: 16.8%
Chance of Crosby going to a US team: 83.2%
Chance of Crosby going to a team that's won the Cup since 2000: 8.3%
Chance of Crosby going to a team that's had a #1 overall pick (including via trade) since 2000: 20.8%
Chance of Crosby going to a team that finished in the top 10 in 2003-04: 20.8%


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Using those parmeters and the Pecahed draft simulator:

Draft Order:
1. Dal ( 2.0%) 2. Col ( 2.1%) 3. Phi ( 2.1%) 4. SJS ( 2.2%) 5. Chi ( 4.4%) 6. Buf ( 7.0%) 7. NYR ( 7.5%) 8. Mtl ( 2.7%) 9. Ott ( 2.8%)10. CBJ ( 8.6%)11. Atl ( 9.4%)12. Ana ( 6.9%)13. Bos ( 3.7%)14. Phx ( 7.7%)15. Cgy ( 8.3%)16. Car ( 9.1%)17. Wsh ( 5.0%)18. Min ( 10.5%)19. Stl ( 5.9%)20. NYI ( 6.3%)21. LAK ( 13.3%)22. Van ( 7.7%)23. NJD ( 8.3%)24. Tor ( 9.1%)25. Pit ( 30.0%)26. Tam ( 14.3%)27. Edm ( 33.3%)28. Nsh ( 50.0%)29. Det ( 50.0%)30. Fla (100.0%))




I liked this post not for the percentages behind the teams.



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So most teams have a 1 in 48 chance of landing a the top pick.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:38 am 
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WindyCityBluesFan wrote:
Anyone have confirmation about how the draft will work? Is everyone going to get a shot at Crosby, will it be weighted lottery? Are we going to have to wait until after this thing is ratified to find out?



Wow ask and you shall receive. Im really no that fast :lol:


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:41 am 
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I know that for the sake of the league as a whole, it would be good if Crosby goes to the Rangers, but, if he does, I'm going to throw up.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:42 am 
BringBackZezel wrote:
007 wrote:
good


HE LIVES!!!!!!! :!: :!: :!: 1 :!: 1 :!: one1!

++!!!!

oh, and (Frank) YEAH!


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:43 am 
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007 wrote:
good


It's ALIVE!!!!! ALIVE!!!

I haven't seen that dancing avatar in awhile.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:46 am 
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still not the best deal they got way back when

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:46 am 
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Once the NHL's new collective bargaining agreement is ratified, the 'wildest' offseason in league history will take place. All 30 teams will be scrambling to sign players and fill out the rosters for when the puck drops in October.

That sense of urgency will also carry over into the NHL Entry Draft- scheduled for July 30 in Ottawa. For the last few years, the league's lottery system included 14 non-playoff teams, with only one team that could move up and improve its position. That will all change this summer, as all 30 teams - with no 2004-2005 standings to back them up - will be thrown into the hat for a chance at grabbing the first overall selection.

The lottery formula is as follows - each team begins with three balls. For every playoff appearance in the last three years or No. 1 overall pick over the last four years, a team loses one ball. But each team will still be guaranteed to have one ball in the lottery. The first round will go with teams picking 1 through 30, with the 30th team picking 31st and the draft order 'snaking' back and forth in a seven round draft.
Take a peek at how each team fared in the selection order over the last three years.

Note: The order shown reflects each team's position based on the final standings and does not reflect trades made or lotteries won. However, draft lottery winners are noted (*), as are Stanley Cup champions (**), who pick last regardless of regular season finish.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:51 am 
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Topshelf331 wrote:
Well OS it looks like you got your wish for a semi weighted draft. Its as close to acomprimise of our arguement as you can get.

Here is a colloection of posts from hf with analysis: (im Not sying they are right, but im sure they are close.) Sorry no link to a solid evidence.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
McKenzie: DRAFT LOTTERY FINAL
Each team starts with 3 balls.

Eah playoff appearance in last 3 yrs = lose 1 ball.

Minus 1 ball for any #1 pick in last 4 years (FLA's pick traded counts vs. FLA).

Minimum 1 ball per team.

7 round snake draft.

Next Thursday, Jul. 21.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Stl 1

48 balls total

------------------------------------------------------------------------------




"What are the chances that a guy like you, and a girl like me could end up together?"

"Not good."

"Not good like 1 in 100?"

"More like 1 in a million."

"So your telling me there's a chance!"

Man I wish we had a better shot at Crosby. Still 1 ball out of 48 is better than none.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:54 am 
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As much as I hate to think about it, the best thing for the NHL might be for Crosby to go to the Rangers. Where New York goes, the country follows.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:56 am 
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What about if Crosby goes to the Red Wings? :shock:

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:00 pm 
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Jackman_the_Iceman wrote:
What about if Crosby goes to the Red Wings? :shock:


I'd rather see that than watch him put on a Rangers jersey.

Thats the Blues fan in me speaking....

The nhl fan in me, knows that the league is probably better off with Crosby going to the stinking Rangers.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:03 pm 
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barnburner wrote:
Jackman_the_Iceman wrote:
What about if Crosby goes to the Red Wings? :shock:


I'd rather see that than watch him put on a Rangers jersey.

Thats the Blues fan in me speaking....

The nhl fan in me, knows that the league is probably better off with Crosby going to the stinking Rangers.


How is that the Blues fan in you speaking? I'd much rather him go to the Rangers than the Wings.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:09 pm 
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barnburner wrote:
Jackman_the_Iceman wrote:
What about if Crosby goes to the Red Wings? :shock:


I'd rather see that than watch him put on a Rangers jersey.

Thats the Blues fan in me speaking....


I'd rather set my head on fire while watching a fourgy involving Gary Thorne, Cris Collinsworth, Kirk Maltby, and Adam Vinatieri than see anything beneficial happen to the Wings. :)


Last edited by Blueline29 on Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:10 pm 
fourgy?


ew.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:10 pm 
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Hollywood wrote:
fourgy?


ew.


Exactly.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:11 pm 
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Now where am I gonna get my Brass Bonanza fix?

;)


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:15 pm 
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This thread title needs more exclamation points.

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