29. St. Louis Blues (29): They went 8-2-1 in their last 11 games, but gained precious little ground in the playoff race. Though Blues fans might not want to give up on the season just yet, an early fire sale should yield huge dividends for 2007-08 and beyond, especially if the Coyotes remain in the playoff hunt.
The pros get it.
The "Pros" ranked the Blues 29th when they had the 2nd best record in the NHL over those 11 games.
Nobody is saying we have a good shot at making the playoffs.
It's just interesting to discuss.
I think everyone knows it would be extremely difficult. They'd have to play extremely well for the rest of the season and they would need some teams to struggle a bit ahead of them (and a few of the teams ahead of them are struggling).
If they keep up their pace over the last 13 games, they will finish the season with 94 pts. That should be good enough to be right there at the end.
Do I think it will happen? No...probably not.
Is it possible? Absolutely.
Is it good for the franchise? Absolutely not.
BBZ, that is your opinion, I think the more money they make this year, the more buzz they generate with the casual fans the better off they will be. If after the trade deadline when there are still around 20 or 25 games they go in the tank, they will go back to losing money the same way they were at the beginning of the season. Even if they dont make the playoffs but keep the house pretty much packed to the end of the season, it is better for them financially. They have to find a balance between long term planning and short term profits, making a run at the playoffs is the best thing for the franchise. Asses in seats is the name of the game, everyone wants to win the Cup, but the Blues have to say solvent.
If by some miracle they make the playoffs, then they may be able to recoup the money they lost while the team was playing like ass (and we are talking rosanne barr ass not jessica biel ass).
The bottom line is money it is a business first, and they cant sustain the losses Bill Laurie could.
I've heard the "financial benefits" arguement before, and it always ignores a few things:
1. the theoretical gains by the team possibly making the playoffs will be partially offset by the loss of financial obligations to the players traded away for future assets.
2. It doesn't account for the value of the savings of the players aquired from trading away UFAs and drafting higher.
Let me explain that last part:
Let's say they make the playoffs
-Attendance will gradually rise. Sellouts aren't really likely until the last month of the season, which is about how long it'll take the team to get into 8th place.
-If they play well enough to get 3 home games in the 1st round, that's another $3M in income. To expect more than that is pretty unrealitic.
In total, it could mean as much as an additional $10M in income for the Blues.
Let's say they don't plan on making the playoffs
-They trade away Guerin, Tkachuk, Brewer, and a couple others at the deadline. They save probably around $3M.
-They get a better draft pick, which increases the likelihood that they'll get an NHL regular who will have restricted pay for 5-8 seasons. (Sidney Crosby is the ultimate example. He's making $850K per season. How much would it cost to get like production out of another player? $5M? $7M? That's real savings....)
-They'll pick up additional draft picks/prospects from the deals, and all of those players will have restricted pay for 5-8 seasons.
-They'll be closer to building a team who can actually compete in the playoffs, meaning they could host as many as 16 playoff games per season, as opposed to the 3 they can hope for at most this season.
When you account for everything, there's much
more money to be made (saved) by not making the playoffs.