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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 10:33 am 
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Mellanby_equals_grit wrote:
Battra wrote:
JWatt (formerly PMS) wrote:
Battra wrote:
If you think he's not worth his contract, then you're not seeing what he brings to the table and you're watching with clouded eyes...that's really all I can say.

He's largely invisible, excepting when he makes a stupid mistake.


I look at things with objective eyes. Stats are objective. He has consistently allowed 3+ goals/60min TOI at even strength (that's horrible). I don't want to hear that he plays against opponents top lines. A statistician will tell you that will only skew the numbers slightly over the course of a season. Go email Tom Awad at the Puck Prospectus and get his GVT rating (a value versus replacement metric) since he's been with the Blues. That is as OBJECTIVE a rating as you can possibly get. Barret Jackman has averaged a GVT of about 3 over the past two seasons (meaning his value over a replacement translates to an increased goal differential of 3 over the entire length of the season, about the value of a #4-5 defenseman), and I guarantee you that Brewer's GVT is lower than that.

I have watched Brewer play, and my evaluation only confirms the statistical analysis. What are you basing your evaluation on?


Mine is not expecting him to be Chris Pronger.

I watch what he does. I see him objectively and I like what I see for the money he costs.


Are we supposed to put a lot of value on the opinion of a guy with multiple Curtis Sanford jerseys?



:lol:

Game worn jersey as well, if I am not mistaken.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 10:36 am 
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Battra wrote:
JWatt (formerly PMS) wrote:
Battra wrote:
If you think he's not worth his contract, then you're not seeing what he brings to the table and you're watching with clouded eyes...that's really all I can say.

He's largely invisible, excepting when he makes a stupid mistake.


I look at things with objective eyes. Stats are objective. He has consistently allowed 3+ goals/60min TOI at even strength (that's horrible). I don't want to hear that he plays against opponents top lines. A statistician will tell you that will only skew the numbers slightly over the course of a season. Go email Tom Awad at the Puck Prospectus and get his GVT rating (a value versus replacement metric) since he's been with the Blues. That is as OBJECTIVE a rating as you can possibly get. Barret Jackman has averaged a GVT of about 3 over the past two seasons (meaning his value over a replacement translates to an increased goal differential of 3 over the entire length of the season, about the value of a #4-5 defenseman), and I guarantee you that Brewer's GVT is lower than that.

I have watched Brewer play, and my evaluation only confirms the statistical analysis. What are you basing your evaluation on?


Mine is not expecting him to be Chris Pronger.

I watch what he does. I see him objectively and I like what I see for the money he costs.


That's a straw man argument. Where in my post did I say anything about Chris Pronger? I am comparing him to defensemen that make ~$4-5MM/yr.

Ryan Whitney, Dennis Wideman, Robyn Regehr, Joni Pitkanen, Tom Gilbert, Jay Boumeester, Kim Johnsson, Shea Weber, Mark Streit, Tomas Kaberle, etc.

There are several players currently on the team that outperform Brewer for the money, and they aren't even very good by NHL standards.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 10:50 am 
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Mellanby_equals_grit wrote:
Battra wrote:
JWatt (formerly PMS) wrote:
Battra wrote:
If you think he's not worth his contract, then you're not seeing what he brings to the table and you're watching with clouded eyes...that's really all I can say.

He's largely invisible, excepting when he makes a stupid mistake.


I look at things with objective eyes. Stats are objective. He has consistently allowed 3+ goals/60min TOI at even strength (that's horrible). I don't want to hear that he plays against opponents top lines. A statistician will tell you that will only skew the numbers slightly over the course of a season. Go email Tom Awad at the Puck Prospectus and get his GVT rating (a value versus replacement metric) since he's been with the Blues. That is as OBJECTIVE a rating as you can possibly get. Barret Jackman has averaged a GVT of about 3 over the past two seasons (meaning his value over a replacement translates to an increased goal differential of 3 over the entire length of the season, about the value of a #4-5 defenseman), and I guarantee you that Brewer's GVT is lower than that.

I have watched Brewer play, and my evaluation only confirms the statistical analysis. What are you basing your evaluation on?


Mine is not expecting him to be Chris Pronger.

I watch what he does. I see him objectively and I like what I see for the money he costs.


Are we supposed to put a lot of value on the opinion of a guy with multiple Curtis Sanford jerseys?

:lol:


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 10:54 am 
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Mellanby_equals_grit wrote:
Are we supposed to put a lot of value on the opinion of a guy with multiple Curtis Sanford jerseys?


:grin: Yeah. Well I can get where he is coming from... I just don't understand why he thinks we should all lower our expectations for the top pairing as well. Until we can find a legitimate top pairing, I am going to always find the defense lacking in that respect.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 10:56 am 
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Mellanby_equals_grit wrote:
Battra wrote:
JWatt (formerly PMS) wrote:
Battra wrote:
If you think he's not worth his contract, then you're not seeing what he brings to the table and you're watching with clouded eyes...that's really all I can say.

He's largely invisible, excepting when he makes a stupid mistake.


I look at things with objective eyes. Stats are objective. He has consistently allowed 3+ goals/60min TOI at even strength (that's horrible). I don't want to hear that he plays against opponents top lines. A statistician will tell you that will only skew the numbers slightly over the course of a season. Go email Tom Awad at the Puck Prospectus and get his GVT rating (a value versus replacement metric) since he's been with the Blues. That is as OBJECTIVE a rating as you can possibly get. Barret Jackman has averaged a GVT of about 3 over the past two seasons (meaning his value over a replacement translates to an increased goal differential of 3 over the entire length of the season, about the value of a #4-5 defenseman), and I guarantee you that Brewer's GVT is lower than that.

I have watched Brewer play, and my evaluation only confirms the statistical analysis. What are you basing your evaluation on?


Mine is not expecting him to be Chris Pronger.

I watch what he does. I see him objectively and I like what I see for the money he costs.


Are we supposed to put a lot of value on the opinion of a guy with multiple Curtis Sanford jerseys?



What exactly does Curtis Sanford have to do with this discussion?

Oh yeah...not a damned thing...which makes that...

Oh...damn...something about...

NON-SEQUITOR!

Nice.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 10:58 am 
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JWatt (formerly PMS) wrote:
Battra wrote:
JWatt (formerly PMS) wrote:
Battra wrote:
If you think he's not worth his contract, then you're not seeing what he brings to the table and you're watching with clouded eyes...that's really all I can say.

He's largely invisible, excepting when he makes a stupid mistake.


I look at things with objective eyes. Stats are objective. He has consistently allowed 3+ goals/60min TOI at even strength (that's horrible). I don't want to hear that he plays against opponents top lines. A statistician will tell you that will only skew the numbers slightly over the course of a season. Go email Tom Awad at the Puck Prospectus and get his GVT rating (a value versus replacement metric) since he's been with the Blues. That is as OBJECTIVE a rating as you can possibly get. Barret Jackman has averaged a GVT of about 3 over the past two seasons (meaning his value over a replacement translates to an increased goal differential of 3 over the entire length of the season, about the value of a #4-5 defenseman), and I guarantee you that Brewer's GVT is lower than that.

I have watched Brewer play, and my evaluation only confirms the statistical analysis. What are you basing your evaluation on?


Mine is not expecting him to be Chris Pronger.

I watch what he does. I see him objectively and I like what I see for the money he costs.


That's a straw man argument. Where in my post did I say anything about Chris Pronger? I am comparing him to defensemen that make ~$4-5MM/yr.

Ryan Whitney, Dennis Wideman, Robyn Regehr, Joni Pitkanen, Tom Gilbert, Jay Boumeester, Kim Johnsson, Shea Weber, Mark Streit, Tomas Kaberle, etc.

There are several players currently on the team that outperform Brewer for the money, and they aren't even very good by NHL standards.


What are you basing your evaluation on? You

Mine is not expecting him to be Chris Pronger. Me

Not a strawman, my answering your question.

If they out perform Brewer, then they would have to be good by NHL standards....

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 10:59 am 
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richtedm wrote:
Mellanby_equals_grit wrote:
Are we supposed to put a lot of value on the opinion of a guy with multiple Curtis Sanford jerseys?


:grin: Yeah. Well I can get where he is coming from... I just don't understand why he thinks we should all lower our expectations for the top pairing as well. Until we can find a legitimate top pairing, I am going to always find the defense lacking in that respect.


I think you're misunderstanding what I mean.

I'm not saying anyone should lower their expectations of a top pairing...I'm just saying, comparisons to Prongs and Mac are unfair at best, as they were 2 of the best from a generation.

Very few will match up to that...Lidstrom and Niedermayer come to mind...but no one can match Niedermayer's beard.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:00 am 
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Battra wrote:
Mine is not expecting him to be Chris Pronger.

I watch what he does. I see him objectively and I like what I see for the money he costs.


Some fans might expect him to be Chris Pronger, there's no doubt about it. Those people aren't on this board. The people here are generally more intelligent than that.

That said... my issues with Brewer are largley expectation based. Brewer has played well in a Blues jersey at times. I expect a player that is making $4.5M per year to do that all the time, not for 6 weeks a season. And, IMO of course, the difference between his good play and his horrid play is almost exclusively bad decision making. The guy has skill and can even be very good at times in his own zone, he just hasn't been able to do it consistently.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:02 am 
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This thread still sucks..

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:08 am 
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section319 wrote:
This thread still sucks..


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:10 am 
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Battra wrote:
richtedm wrote:
Mellanby_equals_grit wrote:
Are we supposed to put a lot of value on the opinion of a guy with multiple Curtis Sanford jerseys?


:grin: Yeah. Well I can get where he is coming from... I just don't understand why he thinks we should all lower our expectations for the top pairing as well. Until we can find a legitimate top pairing, I am going to always find the defense lacking in that respect.


I think you're misunderstanding what I mean.

I'm not saying anyone should lower their expectations of a top pairing...I'm just saying, comparisons to Prongs and Mac are unfair at best, as they were 2 of the best from a generation.

Very few will match up to that...Lidstrom and Niedermayer come to mind...but no one can match Niedermayer's beard.


I agree very few will be able to match up to that. But thats not to say there aren't more than a few who fall in the area between Brewer and a HOF pair of players. I would rather have those players in the #1 spot. I think Brewer would be a valuable player on a good team with a legitimate top pair. I just don't feel comfortable with him in that spot.


All this discussion... but whats the word on his back? I have heard anywhere from not serious to career threatening.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:19 am 
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Battra wrote:
What are you basing your evaluation on? You

Mine is not expecting him to be Chris Pronger. Me

Not a strawman, my answering your question.

If they out perform Brewer, then they would have to be good by NHL standards....


I'm basing my opinion on advanced statistics (from Behind the Net and Puck Prospectus) as well as my hockey experience (I've played since I was 5 and coached some) and superior intellect (we'll just say I'm smart and leave it at that).


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:21 am 
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richtedm wrote:
All this discussion... but whats the word on his back? I have heard anywhere from not serious to career threatening.


He had surgery and it still hasn't healed up to a point where he can skate without pain. I would say it is at least career limiting at this point.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:25 am 
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OS wrote:
Battra wrote:
Mine is not expecting him to be Chris Pronger.

I watch what he does. I see him objectively and I like what I see for the money he costs.


Some fans might expect him to be Chris Pronger, there's no doubt about it. Those people aren't on this board. The people here are generally more intelligent than that.

That said... my issues with Brewer are largley expectation based. Brewer has played well in a Blues jersey at times. I expect a player that is making $4.5M per year to do that all the time, not for 6 weeks a season. And, IMO of course, the difference between his good play and his horrid play is almost exclusively bad decision making. The guy has skill and can even be very good at times in his own zone, he just hasn't been able to do it consistently.


Why is it you switch back and forth from thinking adult to adhominem attacker? Why can't you be consistent?

I think the biggest issue is what he's asked to do, based on who he's paired with. When he's not comfortable with his D partner, all hell breaks loose in his mind, then watch out.

When he's comfortable with his D partner, think Salvie and Polak, he's a very, VERY strong defender, good on the transition, largely by skating and not passing...which sucks...and is good at manning the point, just not shooting...and he'll put in his 30-40 points each year.

When he's uncomfortable with his D partner, he tries to do way too much, and screws everything up.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:27 am 
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richtedm wrote:
Battra wrote:
richtedm wrote:
Mellanby_equals_grit wrote:
Are we supposed to put a lot of value on the opinion of a guy with multiple Curtis Sanford jerseys?


:grin: Yeah. Well I can get where he is coming from... I just don't understand why he thinks we should all lower our expectations for the top pairing as well. Until we can find a legitimate top pairing, I am going to always find the defense lacking in that respect.


I think you're misunderstanding what I mean.

I'm not saying anyone should lower their expectations of a top pairing...I'm just saying, comparisons to Prongs and Mac are unfair at best, as they were 2 of the best from a generation.

Very few will match up to that...Lidstrom and Niedermayer come to mind...but no one can match Niedermayer's beard.


I agree very few will be able to match up to that. But thats not to say there aren't more than a few who fall in the area between Brewer and a HOF pair of players. I would rather have those players in the #1 spot. I think Brewer would be a valuable player on a good team with a legitimate top pair. I just don't feel comfortable with him in that spot.


All this discussion... but whats the word on his back? I have heard anywhere from not serious to career threatening.


There are many players I'd RATHER have than him in that spot...no doubt about that, but I'm comfortable with him being there.

No idea...last I'd heard was that maybe career threatening...at which point all of this is academic.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:29 am 
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Battra wrote:
OS wrote:
Battra wrote:
Mine is not expecting him to be Chris Pronger.

I watch what he does. I see him objectively and I like what I see for the money he costs.


Some fans might expect him to be Chris Pronger, there's no doubt about it. Those people aren't on this board. The people here are generally more intelligent than that.

That said... my issues with Brewer are largley expectation based. Brewer has played well in a Blues jersey at times. I expect a player that is making $4.5M per year to do that all the time, not for 6 weeks a season. And, IMO of course, the difference between his good play and his horrid play is almost exclusively bad decision making. The guy has skill and can even be very good at times in his own zone, he just hasn't been able to do it consistently.


Why is it you switch back and forth from thinking adult to adhominem attacker? Why can't you be consistent?

I think the biggest issue is what he's asked to do, based on who he's paired with. When he's not comfortable with his D partner, all hell breaks loose in his mind, then watch out.

When he's comfortable with his D partner, think Salvie and Polak, he's a very, VERY strong defender, good on the transition, largely by skating and not passing...which sucks...and is good at manning the point, just not shooting...and he'll put in his 30-40 points each year.

When he's uncomfortable with his D partner, he tries to do way too much, and screws everything up.



So, basically when he is paired with a good defensive defenseman he is good and when he isn't, he isn't good.

And I don't think anyone here argues that Brewer is completely worthless, I think the point is that he isn't a legitimate #1. Just because he plays as our #1 doesn't mean that he is a legitimate NHL #1 d-man.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:33 am 
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I thought this thread was supposed to be about Jackman?

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:36 am 
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section319 wrote:
Battra wrote:
OS wrote:
Battra wrote:
Mine is not expecting him to be Chris Pronger.

I watch what he does. I see him objectively and I like what I see for the money he costs.


Some fans might expect him to be Chris Pronger, there's no doubt about it. Those people aren't on this board. The people here are generally more intelligent than that.

That said... my issues with Brewer are largley expectation based. Brewer has played well in a Blues jersey at times. I expect a player that is making $4.5M per year to do that all the time, not for 6 weeks a season. And, IMO of course, the difference between his good play and his horrid play is almost exclusively bad decision making. The guy has skill and can even be very good at times in his own zone, he just hasn't been able to do it consistently.


Why is it you switch back and forth from thinking adult to adhominem attacker? Why can't you be consistent?

I think the biggest issue is what he's asked to do, based on who he's paired with. When he's not comfortable with his D partner, all hell breaks loose in his mind, then watch out.

When he's comfortable with his D partner, think Salvie and Polak, he's a very, VERY strong defender, good on the transition, largely by skating and not passing...which sucks...and is good at manning the point, just not shooting...and he'll put in his 30-40 points each year.

When he's uncomfortable with his D partner, he tries to do way too much, and screws everything up.



So, basically when he is paired with a good defensive defenseman he is good and when he isn't, he isn't good.

And I don't think anyone here argues that Brewer is completely worthless, I think the point is that he isn't a legitimate #1. Just because he plays as our #1 doesn't mean that he is a legitimate NHL #1 d-man.


No...you see...to mean what you said I meant...I'd have had to have said that.

I would say that Colaiacovo is a good defenesemen, and I think they'd make a horrid pair.

I would say that Johnson is a good defensemen, and I think they'd make a horrid pair.

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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:46 am 
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The only thing that would explain your stance is that Brewer is a defensive liability and needs to be paired with a defenseman that is strong enough defensively to bail him out and keep his goals allowed stats down.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 24, 2009 11:53 am 
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JWatt (formerly PMS) wrote:
The only thing that would explain your stance is that Brewer is a defensive liability and needs to be paired with a defenseman that is strong enough defensively to bail him out and keep his goals allowed stats down.


No...

How many defensemen do we have that are capable of covering the entire back end?

He needs somebody who he knows well enough to know where they're going to be. His transition strength is his skating...so if he's with a jump up on the play defensemen...they're both going to be at the opponent's goal....

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