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 Post subject: Brian Elliot Overhype
PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 10:14 am 
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I think it's great that Elliot is playing so well and i'm exited to see if he can continue this level of play, but can we take a step back from humping his leg and calling for the blues to extend him immediately?

He's not the first goalie to come to St. Louis, play amazingly for 20 or so games and turn that into a contract extension that the team regretted after he returned to mediocre play.
Save Percentage for first 14 games as a Blue:
Manny Legace's: .922, 3 shutouts and 10 wins.
Chris Mason: .918, 2 shutouts and 11 wins.
Jaroslav Halak: .922, 3 shutouts and 8 wins.

All three have save percentage and shutout/win rates well above what they did overall as Blues. The comparisons between Elliot and Halak at good, both are 9th round picks, both had hot starts for the blues. One had a 4 year deal, and i'm sure most...if not regretting it at least don't see the long deal as a bonus.

None of the three above mentioned goalies were terrible as Blues by any stretch, but they weren't worth a long-term commitment and they came back to earth after a slight hot streak in the beginning. Elliot's run is awesome and I hope it continues as long as possible, but let's not get caught up with the dreams of an over-performing goalie finally being the elite guy us fans have been dreaming about for the last 20 years. Cause odds are it's just a hot streak.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 10:32 am 
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I agree. I'm enjoying it while it lasts, but this never lasts. For any goaltender.

Goaltending in the NHL is just a weird thing. There is almost no consistency anymore. It's really a cointoss.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 1:16 pm 
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Elliot's start this year to Halak's start last year aren't really comparable at all.

While Halak put up very good numbers, he was fighting the puck, allowing too many rebounds and having trouble with his glove hand. He's fortunate to not have allowed more goals than he did to start the season.
Elliot this year is night and day better than Halak was to start last year...not even close really.

You have to look beyond the numbers and actually watch them play. Elliot has been almost perfect in all aspects of his game this year. Very few bad rebounds, he moves and tracks the puck extremely well, and anticipates like he knows what's going to happen. He looks so fundamentally sound right now it's crazy. Plus, he makes saves he has no business making (of the highlight reel variety) to win games for us when the offense only puts up one or two goals.

This has been the best run of goaltending I have ever seen in St. Louis. Sure, some guys have put up similar numbers over stretches, but I haven't witnessed a goalie here who has looked this solid for us...ever.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 1:27 pm 
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Elliot is off the charts and I do believe this is different; however, I'll go back to my statement I made in another thread. The vast odds are that this will be a flash, not the norm. It may very well even last all season, but look around. Goalies simply do not stay on top of their games. If he wants to be practical about a short term extenstion, I'm all for it......but I assume that will not be the case.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 1:46 pm 
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DaDitka wrote:
Elliot is off the charts and I do believe this is different; however, I'll go back to my statement I made in another thread. The vast odds are that this will be a flash, not the norm. It may very well even last all season, but look around. Goalies simply do not stay on top of their games. If he wants to be practical about a short term extenstion, I'm all for it......but I assume that will not be the case.


That can be said of any goalie really...as you mentioned.
Very few are on top of their game year in and year out.

However...this situation is a little different than most in that our two goalies are both playing well and are essentially splitting time. Which means there is less of a chance of a decline in play due to being overworked, overexposed, etc.

Just a thought.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 2:02 pm 
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DaDitka wrote:
Elliot is off the charts and I do believe this is different; however, I'll go back to my statement I made in another thread. The vast odds are that this will be a flash, not the norm. It may very well even last all season, but look around. Goalies simply do not stay on top of their games. If he wants to be practical about a short term extenstion, I'm all for it......but I assume that will not be the case.


I agree with this post. I'm not 100% anti-extension. But, I don't want the Blues jumping into something big based on 20ish games.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 2:04 pm 
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Another major difference in your little chart there: $$ & Expectations.

He's the bargain of the century right now, first off. None of those guys were being paid in food stamps when they were here.

Another is obviously expectations. Those three guys were/are starters. We expected them to play 60-75% of our games and keep us in the season. EXPECTED them to.

As far as I'm concerned: Elliott is nothing but gravy. We expected essentially nothing more than respectable spot duty and instead received a human brick wall with a hot streak normally associated with temperatures existing in volcanoes. I would be willing to argue that- output for payment- he's the most cost-effective NHL player in the last decade if not longer. You'd really have to dig in the NHL archives to find a single player being paid less and having a greater output.

He's just icing on the cake. He keeps it going as long as he keeps it going and the Blues will adjust accordingly. For the time being he's riding the wave, his team is playing very well for him (most nights) so hell, keep chugging. And if he eventually falls off the map, so what? That's another major difference if Elliott collapses vs the collapse of Legace and Mason: we had to go shopping for a new goalie when the play turned south. With Elliott, we won't even have to, or at least not to the same panicked degree as we did with Legace, Mason, etc.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 2:30 pm 
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We have Elliot for one year at $600K. If he keeps this up then after the All-Star game we can talk about re-signing him. If the money was right I would love to see him do a 2 year extension until Allen is ready to come up...kinda like the Cards did with Furcal.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 2:35 pm 
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imo, we ought to just stfu about it and let him play hockey. As soon as you spend a thread debating it he will go to shit and the answer will be evident.

He's playing great. He looks really solid and stoic. I like it, and want it to continue.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 9:18 pm 
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Halak is the one who is Overhyped, not to mention Overpaid and Underachivening and requiring Hitch to set him straight on his position within the organization.

Elliott, on the other hand, along with Hitch, Langenbrunner, a healthy Perron, a producing Backes, and Arnott are the missing pieces to our puzzle, along with people like Stew and Bergs getting off their duff and producing offensive firepower.

Elliotts style of play is anything but overhyped. His record and GAA is not overhyped, its a FACT.

Seriously, is the OP a real Blues fan or not? You never question when you get something excellent in your hands, you just run with it and ride it for as long as you can. Has fans in the STL really gotten to the point where they're that negative about the team winning due to past issues?

Everyone believed in Habs Halak even me, truth is, he has never played like that since. Eliott walked in and suddenly we're alive. Hitch walked in and we're surging. These are no accidents. This is our time.

Why question it?
Fact is our #1 WEARS #1 and Halak is pretty much being forced to work hard and to show he's the #1. He's had good plays and he's had some good saves, he's also costed us games. Is he surging at sucking with some of the worst goal giveaways I've ever seen?

You tell me.

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PostPosted: Mon Dec 12, 2011 10:58 pm 
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lol you're an idiot.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 12:11 am 
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TheoSqua wrote:
lol you're an idiot.


AT LEAST HES A REAL BLUES FAN!!

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 2:02 am 
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I'm an idiot? Well, let's look at your post:

I think it's great that Elliot is playing so well and i'm exited to see if he can continue this level of play, but can we take a step back from humping his leg and calling for the blues to extend him immediately?

He's not the first goalie to come to St. Louis, play amazingly for 20 or so games and turn that into a contract extension that the team regretted after he returned to mediocre play.

HOW do you know he's going to be like the others? You got some magic crystal ball made by the Wirtz family that tells you this?

Save Percentage for first 14 games as a Blue:

Brian Elliott: .947, 4 shutouts and 12 wins
Manny Legace's: .922, 3 shutouts and 10 wins.
Chris Mason: .918, 2 shutouts and 11 wins.
Jaroslav Halak: .922, 3 shutouts and 8 wins.

Added Elliott in just to show you that his stats, like his play, are above the rest by far. Elliott does NOT have a contract extension, in fact he's on a 2 way deal for 600K. He is the exception to the rule of the rest of these others:

* Halak's numbers generally have him, with exception, at near or just above even money. 18-14, 10-6, 27-21 etc. I'm surprised the front office (and a lot of fans) didn't look at his overall numbers or the fact that this guy was the Habs BACKUP netminder before making the deal. I feel if we didn't give him 4m and paid him more like Elliott to start with, he might have been a major ball of fire, but YMMV.

* Legace posted 23-15-5 with us before having issues with the front office and getting an attitude. Went Tandem with Chris Mason before we threw him out on Waivers.

* Chris Mason helped carry us to the playoffs. He was essentially our 'Habs' Halak for that period of time.

Elliott walks in with a positive attitude and it's infectious. That and there isn't any prima donna contract on him. He's being paid how we should pay someone coming in. He was signed as a backup, so we paid him as one. Halak's always been a backup, yet we signed him as a #1. See the problem?


All three have save percentage and shutout/win rates well above what they did overall as Blues. The comparisons between Elliot and Halak at good, both are 9th round picks, both had hot starts for the blues. One had a 4 year deal, and i'm sure most...if not regretting it at least don't see the long deal as a bonus.

600K and something to prove can move mountains.

None of the three above mentioned goalies were terrible as Blues by any stretch, but they weren't worth a long-term commitment and they came back to earth after a slight hot streak in the beginning. Elliot's run is awesome and I hope it continues as long as possible, but let's not get caught up with the dreams of an over-performing goalie finally being the elite guy us fans have been dreaming about for the last 20 years. Cause odds are it's just a hot streak.

The fans, as you put it, are NOT dreaming for hot netminding or fast forwards. We're dreaming for this -> :cup: .

Seriously, where have you been?

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:58 am 
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The fact is that Elliott's .947 save percentage is .041 above his career average of .906%. The only time he came even relatively close to putting up these numbers was in 08-09 when he had a .930 save percentage.. in the AHL.

It's not irrational to question whether or not he can keep these numbers, as it would be the best season for a goalie...ever.


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 6:59 am 
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And what kind of teams were playing in front of Elliott? The Senators were terrible and the Avalanche were terrible. Unless there's a total team effort to fold up like a cheap tent, I think Elliott (and Halak) will put up numbers above their career average. And to think that they'll have such an epic collapse this shortly into Hitchcock's tenure is ludicrous. The man has won* a cup before and managed to get Brett Hull to play defense. Anyone who can pull that off certainly knows what they're doing, and I think the players know it and respect that.

Am I saying the Blues won't ever lose two games in a row again? Of course not. But they'll be in more games than they'll be out of games and shouldn't really have much of a struggle finishing towards the top/middle of the conference (or higher), unless of course the injury bug comes around again. And Elliott will be a big part of that. Imagine two relatively fresh and reasonably reliable goalies heading into the playoffs... Another second round disappointment can't be far behind.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 9:01 am 
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glen a richter wrote:
And what kind of teams were playing in front of Elliott? The Senators were terrible and the Avalanche were terrible.

:okman:
Plus he is making those timely saves when our defense has a mess up.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 9:36 am 
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Oaklandblue wrote:
Lot's of rambles and bold fonts


Elliot may very well turn out to be one of those rare HoF goalies who suck/is mediocre for 5-6 years before turning into Tim Thomas. Heck Tim Thomas did it. I really hope that's the case.

But the odds are this is a hot streak. The Blues defense is playing great and Elliot is playing great, the combined is over-inflated statistics. I'll even agree with what Cprice and others have mentioned that it's not just the statistics, it's also the fundamentals of how Elliot has played.

But that still doesn't guarantee that he's going to continue to be this good. Really it doesn't even make it probable. The most likely scenario is that this is a hot streak and he's going to regress. Look at Halak. He may have been a backup in Montreal but you can't deny that he got his team deep into the playoffs by standing on his head and playing far better than just "fundamentally sound". The Blues traded for the hot hand, almost every fan of the Blues loved it. I loved it.

And yet here we are with him being inconsistent and fans debating if he's good enough to be an anchor at net, and then in the same paragraph some fans are suggesting that Elliot should be extended.

And just because you're stating your words with bold font and capital letters doesn't make me less of a fan. I just don't want to see the team make the same mistake they did with Halak: Taking a hot goalie and expecting them to repeat unsustainable results.

And I see extending Elliot right now as repeating the same mistake that happened with Halak. And, really, Halak hasn't been terrible. He isn't an elite goaltender we hoped we were getting, but it's not like he's singlehandedly ruining our playoff chances like goalies have in the past.


I'm ecstatic about Elliot. I hope he continues to play this way and then signs for a really bargain price for the next few years and transforms into the franchise goalie this team has lacked for years. It's the sort of stroke of luck that this team deserves to get. I'm just not willing to dive into it after repeated examples of goalies coming in, getting hot (and notedly not as hot as Elliot is right now) to earn the starter job in some facet or another, then cooling off and being a dissapointment until they're displayed by the next hot hand.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:11 am 
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I think there's very little doubt that this is a hot streak. The question is how much does he drop off when he's not this hot? It's possible for this to both be a hot streak AND for him to be a legit number 1. I don't know if that's the case, and only time will tell. But, I think it's pretty clear he's hotter than his actual ability.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:26 am 
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Elliott is doing great right now, yes, but what's lost in all of this is that Halak is playing some pretty dern good hockey himself. I know it's easy to overlook that, but it's the truth. Right now, we've got a stellar tandem and that's a good problem to have. I think people are looking for Halak to fail (see the GDT's where early Halak goals are treated like the wheels falling off), whereas Elliott has been such a surprise/revelation that it's easy to appreciate his numbers and effort. Bottom line, we don't need to sell high and trade Elliott now, and we don't need to extend him now. Let them play this out. It's early in the season and our defense and goaltending is winning games.

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PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:41 am 
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So we're really left with two theories- either Elliot is really this good (meaning we can expect similar results consistently over time), or he's on a hot streak. I'd like to think Elliot is hitting his stride at the right time and that he is fulfilling his potential and not just having a hot streak. But is there evidence to support this? I don't really think so.

His numbers have been fantastic, yes. So which theory does this support- are his GAA and SV% conclusive evidence that he is that good, or that he is riding a hot streak? Since he has only been putting up these numbers for a short length of time (as opposed to his entire career so far), this particular piece of evidence seems to support the "hot streak" theory, though admittedly not conclusively- he could just be getting better as his career progresses.

Reference has been made to the suckiness of his former teams. Now that he plays for the Blues, which theory does this support- is he really that good, or on a hot streak? It seems to be equivalent as to which theory this supports, but perhaps this leans slightly more in favor of the "he's really that good" theory. But again, not conclusively.

Also take into account that goalies tend to have flashes of brilliance that can last for up to a whole season, then look positively average at best afterwards. This is fairly common with NHL goalies. Remember Steve Mason? Dude was unbeatable for a while, and look at him now. So is he really that good and just in a current slump (the people in Columbus certainly hope so), or was he on an extended "hot streak" that year? Ryan Miller in the Olympics? Hot streak or really that good? This stuff happens all the time with goalies. Halak? Much more rare is the goalie who puts up those numbers over the course of a career- a Roy, Brodeur, or (vomits a little in my mouth) Belfour. Is Elliot in the category as those guys? I think all of us can agree he is not (or at least not yet).

It seems that the only evidence that will conclusively prove that Elliot is really that good and not just the current Steve Mason is long-term performance over multiple seasons. If he finishes this season the same way he started it, it is an indicator that he may be capable of such long-term performance, but does not prove it. Should we give him a contract extension based on his play so far? I think the evidence is weak. But weak evidence can still turn out to be indicative of the truth. That's why it's called a risk. You risk wasting long-term money on a hot streak, or you risk letting a potential franchise goalie walk to another team. Which does the current evidence indicate we are facing?

Conclusion: STFU and enjoy the wins.

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