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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:40 am 
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theohall wrote:
Oaklandblue wrote:
theohall wrote:
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Now, if he shoots .920-.940 and we lose in the first round


So you are going to hold Allen to a standard Elliott managed once in his playoff career - last year at .921.

That seems real generous of you.

Elliot playoff SV%
09-10 .853
11-12 .904
12-13 .919
14-15 .857
15-16 .921

Sure glad there is absolutely no bias in how you judge goaltenders.



Until Elliott posts a .920-.940 save percentage this season in the playoffs, Elliott sucks as a playoff goalie. 1 time past the 2nd round and he's THE ANSWER for the Blues over Allen, seriously??? Statistics tell stories far better than opinions with little fact behind them. Facts are Elliott is 1-2, 4-4, 4-4 in his first three series as a starter, getting completely knocked out in his 1st series start, and swept in the 2nd round in his next two. It wasn't until his 4th go as the starter at Age 30 he even won a 2nd round game.

But OMG, the Blues traded Elliott. We are screwed with Allen - is such a ridiculous narrative when one considers all the facts, it's hard to believe anyone swallows the BS around it.

So let's see how many 2nd round games Allen wins by Age 30 (Elliott's was 0 at age 29) before throwing him under the bus based on the contract - which, as I brought up before - is actually fitting in both term and salary for what he's providing this team. Why term? Husso, at best, will be ready in the 2nd to last year of the contract. That's your argument, that it should have been a bridge to Husso. While it isn't a bridge deal, the length is pretty much exactly right for a bridge to Husso. Assuming Allen doesn't improve and force Husso to fight for the job. Financially, he's being paid what goalies at his age tend to make when they are 50+ game quality starters.


1. With the team lacking Offense and assuming that without Backes and Brouwer that the team may have serious issues generating Offense in the Offseason (especially with the team not replacing Backes and Brouwer's playoff production), in order for them to win a series they WILL need the D and netminder to be stellar, period, point-blank which was why I quoted the GAA as high as I did. Meaning Jake Allen will need to shoot for the moon. As one of you pointed out, he's rolling .942 since February. If he continues this, we will win a playoff series. We are not going to buy or trade for first line scorers anytime soon and if we do, it will leave a hole somewhere else on the roster. So these are the cards that the team has been dealt with and it CAN work, if Defense stays solid and goaltender rides high. How you do that is have two options in net that can carry the heavy weight.

Jake Allen and Brian Elliott TOGETHER looked very dominating together. I was not a proponent for getting rid of Jake, I wanted both to stay together to see what Jake had in him as well as have depth in that position until Husso was ready to come up. Letting Elliott walk before a contract year to sign a goalie with even -less- experience than your newly-minted starter on a team fresh from the WCF is very, very risky, especially if Allen gets injured and we're relying on Hutton to take over. Again, it would have costed us nothing to give Elliott the title of Starter (He was still under contract) and if he blew it, Allen takes over. We know what we have in Elliott and what he is and what he isn't. Can we say the same if Hutton had to be put in a crucial Playoff game?


Trading off Elliott may help us out in the long-term (It sure looks like it will), but if the Flames go deep and we bust, one has to wonder if Elliott may have made the difference. I don't like thinking like that and the last time we made a trade to the Flames akin to that, they won the Cup. That thought, as silly as it sounds, keeps replaying itself in the back of my mind. We got lucky last year, why couldn't the Flames get luckier? That should be us, not them.

As for " OMG, the Blues traded Elliott. We are screwed with Allen - is such a ridiculous narrative when one considers all the facts", you're speaking a great deal in possible future performance. If you look at Jake Allen's numbers in the playoffs, there isn't much there to base this weird perception of "Jake is the Man" on any level. There's regular season promise there, sure, and to me it's guranteed him the position of regular season Starter, but there's an odd and pretty concerning trend that both he and Elliott post similar numbers, even apart. You can't predict the future and people who have tried to predict the Blues future in a positive way have had it blown back in their face, time and time again. Don't jinx this team like that.

The last thing I will note is how much you speak of Elliott in the singular; Elliott this, Elliott that. When Allen comes up, you bring up the team and try to make it sound like Allen could shoot for the moon or suck but it's because of the team, not him and that's an unfair and silly situation. If you do believe this, please explain 05-06 Patrick Lalime to me, because that excuse should sit with him too, and that is where your pov on that is horribly, horribly wrong.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:58 am 
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Let's consider other facts too. This upcoming offseason is not a normal one. Someone from the Blues will be playing in Vegas next season. Trading Elliott, who was asking for a trade anyway, and getting any type of asset in return, was smart simply because if he put up similar numbers this season then it would be a very real possibility he would be the one going in the expansion draft. They couldn't protect both goalies, but now they can protect Allen and leave Hutton who will probably not be the Knights choice given who else I think will be exposed. And if Hutton is the one who's taken, we're just back to needing a backup for Allen who could very well be unrestricted free agent Brian Elliott. I would also not be against Chad Johnson, Keith Kincaid or Peter Budaj if the need arose for a new backup goalie.

Again, goaltending is not our pressing need. As Kerfuffle pointed out very clearly, a world class goalie is not paramount to a Stanley Cup run. Plenty of mediocre goalies have won the Cup because they had a great team playing in front of them. Our need is more contribution from the offense which is a system problem, not a Jake Allen/Carter Hutton/Brian Elliott/Whoever problem. Frankly, I think Brodeur has Allen moving in the right direction, so once again the problem is Yeo's offensive system. You can take the word offensive in either way that you choose. Neither is Allen's fault.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:19 am 
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Exactly, glen. All context, not the limited context of just keeping Elliott and Allen together which was not a real serious option considering what Elliott was demanding. But let's ignore the context related to Elliott's individual demands, what's required in the upcoming expansion draft, Elliott's potentially pending UFA status (he damn well wasn't going to re-sign with the Blues if not handed the #1 role) and all that context and just claim the Blues should have kept them together. Riiiiggghhhhtttt...

And these are all the guys, except one, given the same context, losing a first round playoff series, Oakland would doubt - the same way he's doubting Allen can win a playoff series while discounting all of his World Jr. and Jr level play.


Goalie GAA SV% W L
Player 1 2.87 .895 4 4 Henrik Lundqvist (Age 25)
Player 2 2.27 .925 3 5 Corey Crawford (Age 27)
Player 3 2.91 .908 3 5 Jonathan Quick (Age 25)
Player 4 2.65 .910 3 5 Pekka Rinne (Age 28)
Player 5 2.96 .920 4 4 Jaroslave Halak (Age 24)
Player 6 2.70 .901 5 2 Brian Elliott (Age 26) (no decision in one start due to being pulled)

Allen 2.56 .897 3 5 (for comparison - only the 8 starts) Age 25 on the 8th start.

All but one of them, Halak, lost their first series in the playoffs as the starter. Throw in Mike Liut, too. Guess we should bring back Halak. He's proven he can reach the Conference Finals, just like Elliott did once.

So clearly, Allen can't be trusted to win a playoff series :roll:

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:45 am 
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theohall wrote:
Exactly, glen. All context, not the limited context of just keeping Elliott and Allen together which was not a real serious option considering what Elliott was demanding. But let's ignore the context related to Elliott's individual demands, what's required in the upcoming expansion draft, Elliott's potentially pending UFA status (he damn well wasn't going to re-sign with the Blues if not handed the #1 role) and all that context and just claim the Blues should have kept them together. Riiiiggghhhhtttt...

And these are all the guys, except one, given the same context, losing a first round playoff series, Oakland would doubt - the same way he's doubting Allen can win a playoff series while discounting all of his World Jr. and Jr level play.


Goalie GAA SV% W L
Player 1 2.87 .895 4 4 Henrik Lundqvist (Age 25)
Player 2 2.27 .925 3 5 Corey Crawford (Age 27)
Player 3 2.91 .908 3 5 Jonathan Quick (Age 25)
Player 4 2.65 .910 3 5 Pekka Rinne (Age 28)
Player 5 2.96 .920 4 4 Jaroslave Halak (Age 24)
Player 6 2.70 .901 5 2 Brian Elliott (Age 26) (no decision in one start due to being pulled)

Allen 2.56 .897 3 5 (for comparison - only the 8 starts) Age 25 on the 8th start.

All but one of them, Halak, lost their first series in the playoffs as the starter. Throw in Mike Liut, too. Guess we should bring back Halak. He's proven he can reach the Conference Finals, just like Elliott did once.

So clearly, Allen can't be trusted to win a playoff series :roll:


You don't listen. Elliott was still under contract and wanted a trade IF we didn't name him the Starter. So why not just name him, let him blow out and that puts the issue to rest? Everyone seems to think he wanted a trade and he didn't. He wanted an opportunity, we said no and honored his request for the alternative.

If you drop Elliott's no-decision, it signifigantly raises his GAA.

You simply don't sign a player with south of 100 games to a big contract unless they're the guy and Allen's stats haven't proven that. Working with Brodeur (and maybe Conklin, but people don't bring that name up alot) seems to have helped his game. He's 26, I don't expect a great deal more out of him than what I've seen, but netminders are funny like that and I'll even admit that. But did Allen's output so far really merit what, 4 years at 4m? I know we're talking in hindsight, but at the time, was that absolutely necessary? Be honest about that. I know I'm being nitpicky, but that's Halak money and the Isles are having a hard time dealing with that contract. Fans here look at a player doing well as if they will always do that well or will only get better. That's how we got Lehtera's contract.

Look, we can sit here and ponder what Allen can and can not do. I am speaking from what I have SEEN of him in the playoffs so far from stats YOU posted, and it doesn't paint a good picture. Doesn't mean he won't be amazing, but with the roster we have, to win we will need to have a bulletproof defense and a netminder who can steal games in the playoffs. So far, that isn't Allen and unless you can predict the future, you can't sit here and predict what Allen can be and can't be. I'm speaking of stats, regardless if it's a big or small sample size. You're predicting.

And no, the majority of this isn't Allen's fault, in all honesty, a lot of netminders in the NHL wouldn't be able to help the Blues all the way. We would need a legitimate elite netminder and that's simply not Allen and that's not his fault. On a stacked offense, Allen would be wonderful. We don't have that and management, as it stands, is not going to go out and buy the players we need. Army is incapable and I don't believe Stillman has the background or experience to help either.

Like I've said a few times now, we should wait until after the post-season and then discuss this again because we'll have a better understanding on where Allen sits. We can sit here and give small sample sizes all we like; since February Allen's done this, this guy's done that kind of thing. What can he do in an entire season? So far he's definitely regular season material. What is he in the playoffs, when it really matters?

We'll find out in a few months and while I'm not his biggest fan, I do hope he shoots for the moon and hits it. I'd table my issues with him to see the team go all the way.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:58 am 
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They extended him when they did to get a jump on the market. Allen would have been a restricted free agent after this year. He had shown progression every season, giving the organization optimism about his future (rightfully so). If Allen goes to the negotiating table without a contract after a nice season as a full time starter, he could have demanded more than what he got (again, rightfully so). He did the Blues a favor signing that contract when he did.

Hindsight is what it is (he had a rough 3 weeks and panic had struck) but do yourself a favor and look up the cap hits of starting goalies in the NHL. We're not talking about platoon guys, either. Allen is no longer a platoon guy.

Would we all like to see him make an all star game or get included in offseason award conversations? Sure, and that's what is meant by saying he has work to do to merit the extension. Even so, this is what the market dictates.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:11 pm 
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Interesting...6 of your last 13 games are against Colorado and Arizona - that's a good time to move up in the standings. 10 of the 13 are against non-playoff teams - so the schedule is in your favor down the stretch here.


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:15 pm 
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Toasted Oates wrote:
They extended him when they did to get a jump on the market. Allen would have been a restricted free agent after this year. He had shown progression every season, giving the organization optimism about his future (rightfully so). If Allen goes to the negotiating table without a contract after a nice season as a full time starter, he could have demanded more than what he got (again, rightfully so). He did the Blues a favor signing that contract when he did.

Hindsight is what it is (he had a rough 3 weeks and panic had struck) but do yourself a favor and look up the cap hits of starting goalies in the NHL. We're not talking about platoon guys, either. Allen is no longer a platoon guy.

Would we all like to see him make an all star game or get included in offseason award conversations? Sure, and that's what is meant by saying he has work to do to merit the extension. Even so, this is what the market dictates.

:plusplus:

Which again emphasizes Oakland's continued lack of understanding of all context in relation to the situation.

I still haven't seen a significant reply to the fact Husso likely won't be a major factor for the Blues until the 2nd to last season, at the earliest, of Allen's contract. The argument was they should have bridged Allen until Husso was ready. Well... that's the length of Allen's contract, although not a true bridge deal.

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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:39 pm 
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Husso isn't even starting in Chicago lately. Binnington has grabbed the reins, which I guess is interesting considering Husso has a better GAA and save % in his limited starts. We'll see what happens next year, but I'm inclined to believe a decision has to be made on Binnington too. Luke Opilka is playing like garbage in Kitchener, so I'm going to assume he's out of the picture and Evan Fitzpatrick, I'm still scratching my head wondering why they drafted him in the first place.

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