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 Post subject: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:39 am 
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Expansion and Entry Drafts are coming up, so figured we could use a thread for them. Blues protected list isn't very surprising. Only thing noteworthy is that Perron was left unprotected.




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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:05 am 
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Hopefully Armie has a deal with vegas to take Lehtera.
of the exposed players, left to my own devices (as vegas), I'd probably take Bortuzzo or Jaskin.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 2:13 pm 
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What is the fascination with Jaskin? I don't get it. He's a 3rd/4th line grinder and has never shown to be anything more.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 2:45 pm 
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Unless there's a deal in place, I'd be shocked if they don't take Perron.

I mentioned it in another thread, I am opposed to giving up a 1st round pick to lose Lehtera. I'd give up something, but a 1st round pick is a lot to shed 1 year of a bad contract.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:31 pm 
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That they felt the need to protect Reaves speaks volumes about the sad state of affairs that is the 3rd and 4th lines.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 7:54 pm 
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I like Reaves and all but friggin a. Rutherford tweeted they don't have a replacement for him and that's why they protected him. Huh? You could replace Reaves with just about anyone.

I get you're trying to open up some cap space but judging from Doug's history in that regard, this all a little frightening. Not surprising, though. Should be a gong show of a week.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:58 pm 
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theohall wrote:
What is the fascination with Jaskin? I don't get it. He's a 3rd/4th line grinder and has never shown to be anything more.

He's got "untapped potential" - or, that thing that has doomed a number of coaches and GMs in sports across the years.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:36 pm 
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Irish Blues wrote:
theohall wrote:
What is the fascination with Jaskin? I don't get it. He's a 3rd/4th line grinder and has never shown to be anything more.

He's got "untapped potential" - or, that thing that has doomed a number of coaches and GMs in sports across the years.


Considering he's already 24 and been in the NHL for 3 full seasons, the potential is already determined and he's regressing, not improving. He's not going to magically blossom into a 20 goal scorer or even a 20 point per season player. Looked like he had potential his 1st full NHL season, but that's faded.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:19 am 
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Some commentators have said the Blues could've played a little game theory action and left Stastny exposed on the theory there's no way in heck Vegas is going to grab a declining center with a $7 mill cap hit for one year prior to UFA.

More I thought about it the more it made sense but alas.

Also surprised by the Perron exposure. Talent wise he's probably the most talented hockey player of the group left exposed but for Vegas it's obviously more complicated than just picking the top 30 talented hockey players available. Cap hit, remaining contract, projections, etc all matter obviously. Maybe they don't take him and opt for someone younger with a lower cap hit.

I think the Jaskin thing is the theory that he hasn't reached his potential and that he's now buried in the Blues system and will never be afforded even the opportunity to play top line minutes to even see if a rejuvenation is possible.

Sounds like Vegas also has big deals in place with each of the Ducks and Jackets that include first round picks to avoid players or even groups of players. With teams lining up trying to entice Vegas to take on some bad contracts it really wouldn't shock me in the slightest if by the time Vegas gets to the Blues (and I don't think for a second we need to swing ANY kind of a deal with Vegas. Just let them pick a player and we'll move on. There's no risk of serious loss here and any positive gain to be had from them taking on a bad contract will net a max of two year benefit) they won't be interested in taking on any more crap contracts.

There are teams far more desperate to unload bad contracts and I'm sure that comes with a premium price tag.

We're good. Just let Vegas pick a player and we'll adjust accordingly.

If absolutely nothing else if Perron gets picked up we get $3.75 in cap space a year early to maybe do some shopping this summer. He's a good depth forward to have but I'm particularly troubled by him being invisible in the playoffs. Apparently Blues brass really feels like Reaves is a good enough blend of various talents that doesn't make him easy to replace. He's also a cheap cap hit which makes him more enticing to Vegas, especially if the Golden Knights are taking on some big cap hits from Clarkson, etc.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:08 am 
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WaukeeBlues wrote:
Apparently Blues brass really feels like Reaves is a good enough blend of various talents that doesn't make him easy to replace. He's also a cheap cap hit which makes him more enticing to Vegas, especially if the Golden Knights are taking on some big cap hits from Clarkson, etc.


I could see Vegas taking someone like Reaves (if we had left him unprotected). New teams, especially in a place like Vegas, want to generate excitement and energy. Reaves is that type of guy. His style of play and personality would make him an instant fan favorite.

When you are trying to get over the hump of winning a Cup, he might not have as much value to you. If, however, you are trying to establish a fan base from scratch and create a name for your team by giving people something to talk about by adding colorful personalities, I could see how Reaves would foot the bill.

On a semi-related note, Greg Wyshynski of Puck Daddy feels about how we do about the Blues' protected list: https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl-expansion-draft-12-biggest-surprises-vegas-protected-lists-164649994.html

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Whatever the Blues are doing

The Blues’ protection list is a real curiosity. If Ottawa thinks the Knights lay off Ryan’s salary, why did the Blues think they’d take on $7 million of Paul Stastny for a year? Because he’s a center? Why on earth are they protecting Ryan Reaves, and leaving David Perron exposed? Is Vlad Sobotka infinitely more important than Carl Gunnarsson and Robert Bortuzzo on defense?

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:47 am 
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gaijin wrote:
WaukeeBlues wrote:
Apparently Blues brass really feels like Reaves is a good enough blend of various talents that doesn't make him easy to replace. He's also a cheap cap hit which makes him more enticing to Vegas, especially if the Golden Knights are taking on some big cap hits from Clarkson, etc.


I could see Vegas taking someone like Reaves (if we had left him unprotected). New teams, especially in a place like Vegas, want to generate excitement and energy. Reaves is that type of guy. His style of play and personality would make him an instant fan favorite.

When you are trying to get over the hump of winning a Cup, he might not have as much value to you. If, however, you are trying to establish a fan base from scratch and create a name for your team by giving people something to talk about by adding colorful personalities, I could see how Reaves would foot the bill.

On a semi-related note, Greg Wyshynski of Puck Daddy feels about how we do about the Blues' protected list: https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl-expansion-draft-12-biggest-surprises-vegas-protected-lists-164649994.html

Quote:
Whatever the Blues are doing

The Blues’ protection list is a real curiosity. If Ottawa thinks the Knights lay off Ryan’s salary, why did the Blues think they’d take on $7 million of Paul Stastny for a year? Because he’s a center? Why on earth are they protecting Ryan Reaves, and leaving David Perron exposed? Is Vlad Sobotka infinitely more important than Carl Gunnarsson and Robert Bortuzzo on defense?


Agreed on Reaves. I really emphasize the cap hit situation too because although, yea, Vegas has a "clear" team their cap space isn't unlimited and there's only so many dead weight contracts they can take on. They have to get their younger, cap friendly players from somewhere and Reaves would fit that bill and, as you say, generate some excitement and fan interaction.

As to the Puck Daddy article: Yup, that's where I got the $7 million cap hit thing from.

I think Ottawa's strategy is going to backfire, I think Vegas would be thrilled to get a guy like Ryan. Yea it's a large cap hit but you also need some first line talent out there and I know Ryan has declined here in recent years but as the playoffs showed he is still a darn good talent. You're overpaying a bit, sure, but you have to score some goals out there. I think Vegas takes him. Stastny is slightly older, less talented, and only one year left on that deal. Would make far less sense for Vegas to take him as opposed to Ryan.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:57 am 
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Reaves does have value, if the 90's calls and says they need some players. We can put him in a time machine and launch him back to when his style of play was important in the NHL.

I could cobble together a 4th line that's at least as effective as our current 4th line, and probably more so in terms of both the anticipated TOI and points they would generate, using only guys who are currently in the system. a 4th liner who fights but contributes scant offense and can only be counted on to play maybe 7 or 8 minutes a night is not a guy who belongs on an NHL roster in 2017. No disrespect to Reaves, but his game is outdated, and the fact that Armstrong truly believes Reaves, Brodziak, Upshall, Jaskin, Lehtera and a short burst of quality out of Paajarvi are just what the doctor ordered for a team that can barely score as it is is quite frankly insulting.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:00 am 
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For whatever it's worth, I've done the TSN "Draft the Knights" simulator a few times and time after time I'm pushing the 100% mark on the salary cap, which was surprising to me.

For all their cap space Vegas is really going to have to make hard valuations per team on taking a player than may contribute right now but has a medium to high cap hit vs. early 20's "prospect" still developing in the pro's.

It'll be interesting to see, that's for sure.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:25 am 
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I saw the Stastny idea on Puck Daddy too, but I think it's a bad idea. Stastny is overpaid, but we are really dependent on him right now. We don't have anybody to fill his shoes. We have some intriguing centers in our system right now, but none of them will be ready to replace Stastny this year. So, to me, the risk is huge. But, the reward is only forcing them to take Jaskin instead of Perron. Risk/reward just doesn't add up to me.

As for Perron/Reaves, I was a little surprised by it, but I don't think it's terrible. Most of the criticism that I've seen on it has been that Armstrong overvalues Reaves. Maybe true, although I think there is value in having somebody that's big and physical. But, the reasoning could be that Armstrong wants the cap space back for Perron in order to make another deal. I don't know if that's the case, but I think it would justify it.

It's hard for me to imagine them taking anybody but Perron. He's a decent 3rd liner and it seems that he always has trade value at the deadline. If I'm LV, I take him and consider flipping him for a pick/prospect.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:47 pm 
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theohall wrote:
What is the fascination with Jaskin? I don't get it. He's a 3rd/4th line grinder and has never shown to be anything more.


Wouldn't describe it as fascination. I listed two guys that are cheap, serviceable, and might have some upside. The one thing I like about Jaskin, that might translate into some production if given more icetime and a more offensive role, is the way he drives the net when he has the puck in the offensive zone.


cardsfan04 wrote:
It's hard for me to imagine them taking anybody but Perron. He's a decent 3rd liner and it seems that he always has trade value at the deadline. If I'm LV, I take him and consider flipping him for a pick/prospect.


Vegas has the benefit of being able to judge the potential future trade market (maybe as near term future as immediately post expansion draft) prior to making their picks. So, they could have a feel for what Perron would net them in advance. It wouldn't be a bad idea to take him and try to move him at the deadline, but they are likely to be drafting a lot of players with the intent of flipping them.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 5:34 pm 
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flyingnote38 wrote:
Vegas has the benefit of being able to judge the potential future trade market (maybe as near term future as immediately post expansion draft) prior to making their picks. So, they could have a feel for what Perron would net them in advance. It wouldn't be a bad idea to take him and try to move him at the deadline, but they are likely to be drafting a lot of players with the intent of flipping them.

Considering there are at least 5 "franchise" type players in the 2018 draft, vice the 2 this season, I'd be planning to flip players also. With the opportunity to acquire 1st round picks Vegas has, they could potentially have 3 in the top 5 for 2018, barring weird lottery results like this season, and acquire their future core in that draft.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:26 pm 
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Never ending talk about Vegas taking Marc Andre Fleury... not the route I'd go in goaltending when you consider who's been exposed. I'd be going the Grubauer, Mrazek, Malcolm Subban route, personally.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:43 pm 
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Latest mock draft at mynhldraft.com has us going with Kostin at 20 and Jason Robertson at 27. Read up on Robertson a little, seems like he'd be a good pick, lot of upside. After what Theo posted about Kostin though... I think it was Theo, I'm not on board with picking him at all.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:12 pm 
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I wouldn't touch Malcom Subban... He may be doing "ok" at the AHL level, certainly not lighting it up, but his 2 NHL starts were both disasters...12th, not even top 20, and 15th in SV% his last 3 AHL seasons. Pheonix Copley has been a better AHL level netminder, but you took Grubauer...:)

The arguments as to why Kostin had a bad year was a shoulder injury - but that didn't happen until mid-January, so it doesn't explain the lack of production up until then, or the attitude of "I want to play in North America, just not for that CHL team which drafted me, so I will stay in Russia, instead." Supposedly, his dream is to play for Tampa.

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 Post subject: Re: The Drafts Thread
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:23 pm 
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Can't really blame the kid, I mean what Russian wouldn't want to leave the perpetually frozen tundra for the year round balminess of Tampa Bay?

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