I hate that it's 4-6 weeks (and I heard that it's more likely to be 6 than 4). But there are a few silver linings:
- breaks heal more cleanly than sprains, so there is less likely to be a lingering effect.
- he had most of his strength still after the collision on Sunday.
- there is no bone displacement, just a small fracture
- it is his forearm, not his wrist.
Obviously, losing him sucks. But, this could be a lot worse.
Not to mention, no matter how you twist it, this does help lower his asking price simply because it basically means there is no way he get's his average up to 300 or gets to 30 hrs. He's only going to have 40 - 50 games left when he get's back.
I think it lowers his asking price, but I think 30HR and .300 are both within reach still. 100RBI is a lost cause though.
If he returns with full power.. perhaps, but now the team is saying he will miss closer to 8 weeks.
Let's say he plays in 40 more games, he's averaged 3.8 AB per game this year so that 152 ABs.
Even after his super hot June, he's hitting a home run once every 16.5 ABs so 152/16.5 = 9.2 so right about 26 home runs.
I'm not arguing with you, I just think this is a huge threshold in negotiations.
As for the batting average, basing it again on the 152 ABs he'll need to bat 355 the rest of the way.
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