Just finished it.
I think it's really hard to be convinced of guilt beyond a reasonable doubt when hearing a story in this format. So, pretty much by default, I'm not sure I could vote guilty if I was using the legal burden.
But, I think he's guilty for 2 reasons:
1. There's something about his demeanor that I just don't trust. That's a kinda thin reason to think somebody is guilty, but the status quo here is that he's been convicted. He reminds me of people I know, even friends, that I get along with, but take things with a grain of salt. I can't put my finger on exactly what it is, but there's something about him that reminds me of people like that. I wish I could be more specific, but not sure how to be. And, while that's thin, it's pretty much a he-said/he-said. When you distrust one of the "he's" it pushes you to the other side. I don't necessarily trust Jay either though, so I dunno.
2. The distrust makes me lean toward thinking he's guilty. What really pushes me more than just kinda leaning that way is something they touched on in the last episode. If he's innocent, he's the unluckiest guy in the world. It's really convenient to not have a memory of the specific time in question, especially when the person pointing the finger at you has at least some corroboration to his story. The butt dial thing is really thin, especially with a 1999 phone. I don't recall butt dialing people until I had a smart phone.
The DNA evidence could be interesting. It seems to maybe open a door for him. I guess it gives me some hope that he's innocent (which I guess I hope is true). But, that seems unlikely to go anywhere. Can't say for certain, but I think he's guilty.
I tend to agree with a lot of what you said. For me, Jay was the guy all along until about the last 2-3 episodes. The 'unluckiness' is a big factor in my shift. There's just too much there for Adnan not to be involved...right? Even if he, say, hired or convinced Jay to kill Hae, for example. I think Jay was involved somehow as well, even more so than he helped bury the body, or whatever. I think he saw his chance, ratted out Adnan, and got the reduced sentence and has been scott free ever since.
At the same time, there's no way I could convict Adnan as a jury member, not as things stand currently. I'm interested to see if anything more comes out with the DNA evidence.
So question: do you think the podcast worked? Or do you think it was a 'waste of time' like the Deadspin article?
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