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Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 4:55 pm
by ViPeRx007
not_a_wings_fan wrote:Aode wrote:A good indication of how close we are getting is if the 1.44444 shrinks lower and lower as games go on. If the average gets above 2 at any point, we're screwed. So right now, we're...
36 games to play and up 1.43% (2pointspergame possible/pts needed per game)
if the percentage hits lower than 1%- we're f*cked...
Wow, you really worked hard on that one.. .
If the number is greater than two points per game, then you are correct, we have no shot at making that 94pt mark that seems to be nearly consensus for what is needed to get in; however, that number could go up or down depending on the overall play of the WC in the remaining games.
I have no idea what you mean about if the percentage hits lower than 1%...
There are several ways to calculate it, but if the pts needed pergame drops, it means we are making progress towards the goal. If it drops below a pt/game, then we have loses to burn. I don't think we are going to see it go below a pt/game unless we win like 25 games in a row and need just a couple of pts in the remaining 10 games or so.
My heart tells me that I think we have a shot, but my head says it is highly unlikely that we do anything other than screw ourselves out of a higher draft position.
So basically if the Blues have enough points towards the end of the season to make the playoffs, they'll make the playoffs. If not, they won't. That's easy to remember. I'm glad this has been clarified for me.
All of these other mathematical calculations involving statistical fluctuations just confuse me.
Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 5:06 pm
by cprice12
BringBackZezel wrote:frivolousz21 wrote:the Blues need 20 points in 16 games to be within 6 points at the deadline
not bad at all.
8-4-4 would do that..
9-5-2 would be close.
10-6 as well.
but Minnesota might not get as hot as everyone thinks.
the other Northwest teams might slow each other down as well
Counting on teams to falter on a team-by-team basis isn't necessarily a bad thing...
but counting on 5 or so teams to all falter between now and then isn't a safe bet.
Yeah, passing a lot of teams is the real trick.
But to be honest, with the way the Blues are playing...those teams don't really have to falter. We just don't want any of those teams to get hot.
I wish Phoenix would knock it off and start losing a bit.
Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 5:13 pm
by SteveO
not_a_wings_fan wrote:My heart tells me that I think we have a shot, but my head says it is highly unlikely that we do anything other than screw ourselves out of a higher draft position.
This is what I'm most worried about.
Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 5:15 pm
by illownyou
At 17-21-8, now 12th in the conference, it's really nice (strange almost) to see three teams below us in the West.
I agree with what has been said in regards to worrying about .500 first, then looking forward. Once we reach .500, provided its sometime in February, its Go Time to begin the fight for an 8 seed.
There is no reason given the pace we are at, if we were to continue, that we shouldn't at least battle for an 8 spot in the end.
And if we squeak in...I'd go as far to say that we would be a team to watch in the playoffs...
because its arguably harder to go from dead last to a playoff spot than it is to win a Stanley Cup. Well...maybe equalish.
Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 5:18 pm
by illownyou
Prngr44 wrote:not_a_wings_fan wrote:My heart tells me that I think we have a shot, but my head says it is highly unlikely that we do anything other than screw ourselves out of a higher draft position.
This is what I'm most worried about.
I think it is an over-rated concern.
I'd rather have a young team with confidence next year and a fanbase that is also behind the team, than what we would have had we continued or return to our prior losing ways.
Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 5:21 pm
by cprice12
not_a_wings_fan wrote:Aode wrote:A good indication of how close we are getting is if the 1.44444 shrinks lower and lower as games go on. If the average gets above 2 at any point, we're screwed. So right now, we're...
36 games to play and up 1.43% (2pointspergame possible/pts needed per game)
if the percentage hits lower than 1%- we're f*cked...
My heart tells me that I think we have a shot, but my head says it is highly unlikely that we do anything other than screw ourselves out of a higher draft position.
Boy, talk about looking at the glass as half empty...
If the Blues play well and at least make a run at the playoffs and get close, which they are in the process of slowly doing...they'll do a lot more than just lose a higher draft pick.
They will regain fan interest and the younger players will gain more confidence, which is a lot more important, imo, than a few spots in the draft. This team right now, looks to be on the rise, which is more appealing to free agents as well.
And assuming this team does make the playoffs, then we get to watch a red hot team take on a higher seeded team. Remember Edmonton?
I dunno. I just see so many positive things coming out of the Blues playing well, and the only negative is the crappier draft pick....which may end up being a better player after all is said and done...you just never know.
Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 5:51 pm
by not_a_wings_fan
cprice12 wrote:not_a_wings_fan wrote:Aode wrote:A good indication of how close we are getting is if the 1.44444 shrinks lower and lower as games go on. If the average gets above 2 at any point, we're screwed. So right now, we're...
36 games to play and up 1.43% (2pointspergame possible/pts needed per game)
if the percentage hits lower than 1%- we're f*cked...
My heart tells me that I think we have a shot, but my head says it is highly unlikely that we do anything other than screw ourselves out of a higher draft position.
Boy, talk about looking at the glass as half empty...
If the Blues play well and at least make a run at the playoffs and get close, which they are in the process of slowly doing...they'll do a lot more than just lose a higher draft pick.
They will regain fan interest and the younger players will gain more confidence, which is a lot more important, imo, than a few spots in the draft. This team right now, looks to be on the rise, which is more appealing to free agents as well.
And assuming this team does make the playoffs, then we get to watch a red hot team take on a higher seeded team. Remember Edmonton?
I dunno. I just see so many positive things coming out of the Blues playing well, and the only negative is the crappier draft pick....which may end up being a better player after all is said and done...you just never know.
Let me clarify: I ain't bitchin' about the current turnaround! I'm all for watching this team play hard and stay in tough games...and win.
I'm just saying, if you can get solid value for anything that isn't nailed down at the trade deadline and you don't because of a playoff hope, then I think that's bad business. We may make it, we may not, but if we put all our eggs in the playoff basket and miss out on getting top returns then we are screwing future success for current success. That plan got us to where we were last year, iirc. It's a tough call to make for sure, but I don't don't think realistically that this team is a real Cup Contender by a longshot, which isn't to say they can't or won't win the cup.
I'm just pointing out that we could really do some good for the team down the line if we are sellers at the deadline this year no matter what our playoff hopes are.
Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 5:57 pm
by bluenotebacker
Here's what I see as needing to happen. The Blues need to continue to play aggressive, sound, hard nosed, FUN TO WATCH hockey. That's it, that's all. If they do, the wins & points will take care of themselves. Sheesh.
Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 6:03 pm
by execwrite
bluenotebacker wrote:Here's what I see as needing to happen. The Blues need to continue to play aggressive, sound, hard nosed, FUN TO WATCH hockey. That's it, that's all. If they do, the wins & points will take care of themselves. Sheesh.
Amen brother.
Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 10:21 pm
by Aode
bluenotebacker wrote:Here's what I see as needing to happen. The Blues need to continue to play aggressive, sound, hard nosed, FUN TO WATCH hockey. That's it, that's all. If they do, the wins & points will take care of themselves. Sheesh.
This is exactly why the players themselves ought NOT to be doing what we are doing- doing the math and constantly looking at the standings.
Go out there- play hockey- have some fun and pull down some games... worry about where you're at at the trade deadline
Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 11:39 pm
by cprice12
not_a_wings_fan wrote:cprice12 wrote:not_a_wings_fan wrote:Aode wrote:A good indication of how close we are getting is if the 1.44444 shrinks lower and lower as games go on. If the average gets above 2 at any point, we're screwed. So right now, we're...
36 games to play and up 1.43% (2pointspergame possible/pts needed per game)
if the percentage hits lower than 1%- we're f*cked...
My heart tells me that I think we have a shot, but my head says it is highly unlikely that we do anything other than screw ourselves out of a higher draft position.
Boy, talk about looking at the glass as half empty...
If the Blues play well and at least make a run at the playoffs and get close, which they are in the process of slowly doing...they'll do a lot more than just lose a higher draft pick.
They will regain fan interest and the younger players will gain more confidence, which is a lot more important, imo, than a few spots in the draft. This team right now, looks to be on the rise, which is more appealing to free agents as well.
And assuming this team does make the playoffs, then we get to watch a red hot team take on a higher seeded team. Remember Edmonton?
I dunno. I just see so many positive things coming out of the Blues playing well, and the only negative is the crappier draft pick....which may end up being a better player after all is said and done...you just never know.
Let me clarify: I ain't bitchin' about the current turnaround! I'm all for watching this team play hard and stay in tough games...and win.
I'm just saying, if you can get solid value for anything that isn't nailed down at the trade deadline and you don't because of a playoff hope, then I think that's bad business. We may make it, we may not, but if we put all our eggs in the playoff basket and miss out on getting top returns then we are screwing future success for current success.
That plan got us to where we were last year, iirc. It's a tough call to make for sure, but I don't don't think realistically that this team is a real Cup Contender by a longshot, which isn't to say they can't or won't win the cup.
I'm just pointing out that we could really do some good for the team down the line if we are sellers at the deadline this year no matter what our playoff hopes are.
I agree with you up to a point.
And
"That plan got us to where we were last year" comment, isn't really accurate. Last year's ineptness was mainly due to Laurie trading Pronger for scraps, not signing any impact players from the massive free agent pool after the lockout, and having a coach that didn't know what the hell he was doing.
That's the way I see it anyway.
Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 11:42 pm
by ViPeRx007
not_a_wings_fan wrote:Let me clarify: I ain't bitchin' about the current turnaround! I'm all for watching this team play hard and stay in tough games...and win.
I'm just saying, if you can get solid value for anything that isn't nailed down at the trade deadline and you don't because of a playoff hope, then I think that's bad business. We may make it, we may not, but if we put all our eggs in the playoff basket and miss out on getting top returns then we are screwing future success for current success. That plan got us to where we were last year, iirc. It's a tough call to make for sure, but I don't don't think realistically that this team is a real Cup Contender by a longshot, which isn't to say they can't or won't win the cup.
I'm just pointing out that we could really do some good for the team down the line if we are sellers at the deadline this year no matter what our playoff hopes are.
I agree with you 100%
Sure, I've seen mediocre teams in every sport make an improbable run but sometimes you have to just go with the odds. Most likely the Blues aren't going to win the cup this season, it's that simple.
Let's just hope JD and company aren't in Cinderella Mode and afraid to make any changes...
Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 11:54 pm
by cprice12
ViPeRx007 wrote:not_a_wings_fan wrote:Let me clarify: I ain't bitchin' about the current turnaround! I'm all for watching this team play hard and stay in tough games...and win.
I'm just saying, if you can get solid value for anything that isn't nailed down at the trade deadline and you don't because of a playoff hope, then I think that's bad business. We may make it, we may not, but if we put all our eggs in the playoff basket and miss out on getting top returns then we are screwing future success for current success. That plan got us to where we were last year, iirc. It's a tough call to make for sure, but I don't don't think realistically that this team is a real Cup Contender by a longshot, which isn't to say they can't or won't win the cup.
I'm just pointing out that we could really do some good for the team down the line if we are sellers at the deadline this year no matter what our playoff hopes are.
I agree with you 100%
Sure, I've seen mediocre teams in every sport make an improbable run but sometimes you have to just go with the odds. Most likely the Blues aren't going to win the cup this season, it's that simple.
Let's just hope JD and company aren't in Cinderella Mode and afraid to make any changes...
To be fair, right now you could say that "most likely" 90% of the teams in the league won't win the cup this season. But they all can't take on the role of seller at the deadline.
Do you think Edmonton is thinking, "Man...we sure do wish we had traded a bunch of vets at the deadline last year since we didn't win the cup."?
Trade a player or two at the deadline? Absolutely.
Have a firesale at the deadline? No friggin' way.
I guess I halfway agree with you guys.
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 7:20 am
by Hollywood
Trade a player or two at the deadline? Absolutely.
Have a firesale at the deadline? No friggin' way.
So don't commit either way.
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 7:54 am
by Aode
I'm just saying, if you can get solid value for anything that isn't nailed down at the trade deadline and you don't because of a playoff hope, then I think that's bad business.
Bad business is owning a hockey team that doesn't win.
I understand what you're saying, but picking up some names at the deadline and making a rush and missing it isn't the worse thing ever- teams do it year after year who are close. Making the push and missing will NOT break the financial back of this franchise and might even fill more seats and bring back even MORE fans instead of having the last roughly two months of games drift by without effort, cause HEY, "we might as well get the #1 pick."
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 8:13 am
by BringBackZezel
Aode wrote: I'm just saying, if you can get solid value for anything that isn't nailed down at the trade deadline and you don't because of a playoff hope, then I think that's bad business.
Bad business is owning a hockey team that doesn't win.
I understand what you're saying, but picking up some names at the deadline and making a rush and missing it isn't the worse thing ever- teams do it year after year who are close. Making the push and missing will NOT break the financial back of this franchise and might even fill more seats and bring back even MORE fans instead of having the last roughly two months of games drift by without effort, cause HEY, "we might as well get the #1 pick."
Bad business is owning a hockey team that doesn't win cups.
You don't win cups by mortgaging the future for a shot at the 8th seed in the playoffs.
When you do that, a franchise gets stuck in this rut of constantly moving assets to be good enough to appear competetive, but never good enough to be competetive.
As a Blues fan, you should know this...it's the ONLY thing the franchise has ever done.
Now that we know was bad business is, let's move onto something else:
Stupid is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
It's time for a change. It's time to make the franchise better by building it from the ground up. It's time to dump departing players for assets that can help in the future.
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 8:33 am
by Winning Unlimited
Even if the Blues continue their current play under Murray the rest of the season, they may not make the playoffs!
The Post Dispatch reported today that the Blues would need an estimated 93 points to make the playoffs, or 51 points in the next 35 games.
The bad news:
That means an average of 1.457 points per game for the rest of the season.
Under Murray, the Blues are 10-4-4, for 24 points in 18 games, which is 1.333 points per game. Also consider that many teams will be firing on cylindars when the playoffs come around.
The good news:
There seems to be more paridy in the league. For proof, observe, the Northwest division. All five teams are within 5 points of each other. Somehow, if the Blues can reach the .500 mark, they may be able to sneak into the middle of the pack, and then who knows!
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 9:54 am
by cprice12
BringBackZezel wrote:Aode wrote: I'm just saying, if you can get solid value for anything that isn't nailed down at the trade deadline and you don't because of a playoff hope, then I think that's bad business.
Bad business is owning a hockey team that doesn't win.
I understand what you're saying, but picking up some names at the deadline and making a rush and missing it isn't the worse thing ever- teams do it year after year who are close. Making the push and missing will NOT break the financial back of this franchise and might even fill more seats and bring back even MORE fans instead of having the last roughly two months of games drift by without effort, cause HEY, "we might as well get the #1 pick."
Bad business is owning a hockey team that doesn't win cups.
Toronto is the most profitable team in the NHL, and they haven't won a cup in 40 years.
While winning a cup is the ultimate goal, it's not necessarily "bad for business" to not have won a cup in a while.
You don't win cups by mortgaging the future for a shot at the 8th seed in the playoffs.
They aren't going to "mortgage the future" for a chance at the playoffs this year....no matter what Aode says.
I say they still sell a player or two, even if they are close to making the playoffs...and I doubt they acquire anyone to help with the playoff push that would cost us anything of value...maybe a third liner or something like that.
It's time for a change. It's time to make the franchise better by building it from the ground up.
They've already started doing that to some degree.
It's time to dump departing players for assets that can help in the future.
If you're looking for a firesale, it's just not going to happen (nor should it happen) unless the Blues start to tank soon.
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:14 am
by bamabluesfan
Bad business is continually losing money.
Winning Cups, from a business standpoint is not the ultimate goal, profitability and solvency is what they are looking at.
Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:35 am
by Hollywood
If you're looking for a firesale, it's just not going to happen (nor should it happen) unless the Blues start to tank soon.
Thanks Mr Davidson.