Tracking the Improbable...

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Tracking the Improbable...

Postby ledzeppelinfan1 » Sat Dec 23, 2006 9:51 pm

With the recent 3 game winning streak, 5-game unbeaten in regulation streak, the Blues have moved to 10-19-6 as of December 23rd, 2006...completely turning into a different team upon the hiring of Andy Murray.

5 games ago the Blues were 7-19-4 with just 18 points in 30 games, good for last in the NHL. If the Blues were to miraculously make the playoffs, they would need to collect 90 points to even have a chance...which would mean collecting 72 points over the last 52 games, or a .692 winning percentage. Remember...this is as of the 30 game marker.

The Blues since the 30 game marker are 3-0-2, good for an .800 winning percentage...+11.8% over the margin necessary.

This thread will track the team and their post-30 game winning percentage as they turn the worst team in the NHL into an entertaining product once again...and maybe even, a playoff bound club.

The odds are against us, but stranger things have happened.

Post 30 Game Record

8-2-3 .731 +3.9%


*This thread will continue till the topic is rediculous to discuss, or even ponder.
Last edited by ledzeppelinfan1 on Sat Jan 13, 2007 7:41 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Postby blues to cup » Sat Dec 23, 2006 9:54 pm

Like I posted its still possible.

Backn in 2000-2001 when the Blues went to the WCF they won 28 games the first half of the season, but injuries and bad goaltending ect only won 15 games the entire second half, yet was able to finish 4th. If the Blues can do the same in the second half this season they can still very easily make playoffs.
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Postby Aode » Sat Dec 23, 2006 10:04 pm

Especially for the players, they can't be thinking the long term ramifications of who they would pass in the standings if this happened or if that happened- they just need to go out, play hockey games, have some fun, and pull down some games (especially those that we weren't "supposed" to win, like tonight :D )
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Postby FloPoErich » Sat Dec 23, 2006 10:14 pm

I'm not sure that an .800 win pct is all that likely to continue.. Boy do i hope that it does, however i'm just not thinking that it will.. sorry to be the downer... LETS GO BLUES!!!!!!! :letsgoblues: :letsgoblues: :letsgoblues: :letsgoblues:
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Postby ledzeppelinfan1 » Sat Dec 23, 2006 10:20 pm

FloPoErich wrote:I'm not sure that an .800 win pct is all that likely to continue.. Boy do i hope that it does, however i'm just not thinking that it will.. sorry to be the downer... LETS GO BLUES!!!!!!! :letsgoblues: :letsgoblues: :letsgoblues: :letsgoblues:


Uh...we don't NEED an .800 percentage...reread...i refuse to explain this over again.
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Postby FloPoErich » Sat Dec 23, 2006 10:26 pm

I was simply using the 800 as an example of the torrid pace their on...
i refuse to explain this over again. :D
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Postby Jeffro » Sat Dec 23, 2006 10:30 pm

(Frank) chirst thid is a good night to Be a Blues fan
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Postby strocklen083 » Sun Dec 24, 2006 12:20 am

Jeffro wrote:(motherfranking) chirst thid is a good night to Be a Blues fan


i totally concur. this is probably the biggest victory this team has accomplished in years. (judge by Dougie's reaction after the goal)

BUT. . . we can't get ahead of ourselves. Especially not the team! This 3 game streak is something to build on, but still not enough to show a complete turnaround. They're still working out the kinks, but i honestly believe this team, (and the franchise) in general has finally turned the corner they were hoping to turn back at the beginning of the season.

I mean, Weight/Guerin are looking like the 2000 season all over again. It's amazing to watch, especially that goal tonight. It was a special moment to take down the top team in the Eastern Conference like that. Especially when you're dead last in your own conference. I can't wait til we play Detroit (and even Nashville) again. This team is totally buying into AM's system and it's going to be a good rest of the season!
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Postby Aode » Sun Dec 24, 2006 12:57 am

Jeffro wrote:(motherfranking) chirst thid is a good night to Be a Blues fan


:letsgoblues: :plusplus: :plusplus: :goblues:
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Postby Winning Unlimited » Sun Dec 24, 2006 9:31 am

The Blues, who now have 26 points with 47 games left for the season, would need 64 points to reach the coveted 90 point margin.

That yields an expected value of 1.36 points per game. These points can come in wins (2) or overtime losses (1). Unfortunately, an overtime loss will only increase the expected value of points per game. However, it is still better than a loss! To quote Gordon Bombay, "A tie isn't good for us, we need the win!"

The Blues need a minimum of 17 wins in the 47 games assuming that every other game is an overtime loss. However, this does not include that every opponent would get the 2 points from the overtime win. Also, this is not realistic.

The Blues would need to win 32 of the 47 remaining (no overtime losses) to reach 90. This could happen, but highly unlikely. (32-15-0)

Suppose the Blues can go 0.500 the rest of the season. That is, they win, say 24 of the 47 games remaining. That means 74 points from wins. They would need go go (24-7-17) to make the playoffs.

************************************
****THE MOST REALISTIC SCENARIO:****
************************************

Suppose the Blues can go 0.600 the rest of the season. That is, they win, say 29 of the 47 games remaining. That measn 84 points for the season and would only need 6 overtime losses.

Of course, we will have to reevaluate this after watching the current winning streak unfolds itself. Also, injuries, trades, and even the possibility of recalling EJ and Oshie.

Maybe Backes, Oshie, Stempniak can save us all!
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Postby Mayersfan21 » Sun Dec 24, 2006 10:07 am

Little heavy on the Kool Aid boys.





I'm looking forward to some 500 hockey but Playoffs are a pipe dream.

For an interesting perspective I wore my 02-03 playoff hat yesterday that they gave away at the game. When I was handed that hat I just thought "Hey, we get one of these every year" and just took it for granted.

When I donned the hat yesterday it was a much different thought process.



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Re: Tracking the Improbable...

Postby BringBackZezel » Sun Dec 24, 2006 12:48 pm

ledzeppelinfan1 wrote:*This thread will continue till the topic is rediculous to discuss, or even ponder.


It's already there.
[Aode] 10:34 pm: well, if I find cornhole anywhere, I'll try it and let you know
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Postby dmiles2186 » Sun Dec 24, 2006 1:08 pm

Yeah, the playoffs probably won't happen.

However, the "improbable" that IS possible is gaining some respectability around the league.
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Re: Tracking the Improbable...

Postby the knob » Sun Dec 24, 2006 1:27 pm

BringBackZezel wrote:
ledzeppelinfan1 wrote:*This thread will continue till the topic is rediculous to discuss, or even ponder.


It's already there.


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Postby execwrite » Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:09 pm

The Blues are 10-19 now.

Looking at the schedule, 19-10 in the future is possible.

That gets back to .500. That could happen.
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Postby Winning Unlimited » Mon Dec 25, 2006 5:38 pm

execwrite wrote:The Blues are 10-19 now.

Looking at the schedule, 19-10 in the future is possible.

That gets back to .500. That could happen.


0.500 still doesn't make the playoffs, but it is a great start. We'd have played 58 games at that point. With 24 games left, we'd have to go at a faster pace. Come March/April, teams might give a damn when they play us!
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Postby amusiac » Mon Dec 25, 2006 6:51 pm

Mayersfan21 wrote:Little heavy on the Kool Aid boys.


++

There's no telling what the next few games will hold, let alone the next few months. Yes, the team's playing well under Murray, but most teams do well for a new coach for a little while, because the fire returns. The question is how the team will react to a loss, or even a complete blowout. If they can continue to do reasonably well after they lose (hypothetically) 8-0 to the Blue Jackets, then I'll be intrigued.

Playoffs? Doesn't really matter (to me) at this point. I want to see a team that acts like a team. I want to see a team that gets me excited, consistently excited, for the future. The past few games have shown a glimmer of that excitement, and that's fun.

On the other hand, I am a stats junkie, and hypthetical situations like this are always fun to think about.
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Postby Winning Unlimited » Mon Dec 25, 2006 8:20 pm

amusiac wrote:I am a stats junkie


Me too, but I think I got it worse than you... so badly so, I bet I could cure you.
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Postby execwrite » Mon Dec 25, 2006 8:56 pm

amusiac wrote:
Mayersfan21 wrote:Little heavy on the Kool Aid boys.


Playoffs? Doesn't really matter (to me) at this point. I want to see a team that acts like a team. I want to see a team that gets me excited, consistently excited, for the future. The past few games have shown a glimmer of that excitement, and that's fun.

On the other hand, I am a stats junkie, and hypthetical situations like this are always fun to think about.


I've completely reversed field. Forget getting high draft pick by finishing last. It would be a great statement finish strong. Making the playoffs would be very important. Still don't see it happening.
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Postby cprice12 » Tue Dec 26, 2006 12:01 am

There's nothing wrong with discussing the possibility of the playoffs.

It's a long shot and the Blues will have to play quite well the rest of the season to get in...but teams have gone on better stretches over the same amount of time. So you never know.

If the Blues win a few more in a row, the negative-ninnies better get ready for a lot of playoff optimism. :wink:

Anyway, the next week or two could be huge. Should the Blues continue to play well over the next handfull of games, they could pass three teams and jump into 12th in the conference quite easily. Only three points seperates 12th from 15th right now.
...If that happens, then they are looking up at the 8th-11th place teams that are only currently seperated by 3 pts (assuming teams don't jump around in the standings too much between now and then, should the Blues catch them).

Anyway...it's just fun to talk about.

Carry on.
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