Tracking the Improbable...

[Tezmyster]

Here's why this is a silly argument.

Checketts to JD: "Why in the world are we playing so much better lately? Don't you understand that I know we won't be making the playoffs this year and that we will be better off with the third pick instead of the 14th pick?

"Go tell Andy Murray to make sure the team stops playing well."

Does anyone think that's what they're saying in the front office?

No one has suggested that this is what's going on. No one is suggesting that they try to lose.

I'm just pointing out the fact that with this team where it is in the standings and it's current talent level, it's actually BETTER for the franchise long-term to lose and continue actually building a franchise. What's also amazing is not a single person in this thread has denied that it's better for the franchise in the long run to NOT make the playoffs.

Most people agree that Pleau was going OK until Laurie wanted to win now and that's the point where the franchise really screwed itself. That's what happens when a team who doesn't have the talent or depth for a serious championship push goes for it anyway.

Like Chris Pronger said "This franchise will never be good until it's bad"

Ask yourself this:

Will you regret it when the Blues miss drafting a franchise player in the top 12 picks because they got the 13th pick?

Will making the playoffs then losing in the first round really make you happy?

I simply want the team to win the Cup. I guess it's good enough for you to just make the playoffs.

Blues came dead last last season, is there a defined length of time they should come down the bottom before they push for a cup win?

[Tezmyster]

1- The Blues will not make the playoffs this year.

I wouldn't say that, I'd say judging by recent performances they've got a pretty decent chance at making the playoffs.

How decent a chance?

I'll bet you $100 that they do not make the playoffs.

That same offer goes for everyone.

You know I'd probably take that bet if I was confident you'd honour your side.

How about thiswe'll have an escrow: I'll give the $100 to someone you trust and you do the same. Let them payout to the winner.

This same offer goes to everyone.

You know what the sad thing about this bet is, you're betting on and hoping the team will perform badly.

[OS]

No one has suggested that this is what's going on. No one is suggesting that they try to lose.

I'm just pointing out the fact that with this team where it is in the standings and it's current talent level, it's actually BETTER for the franchise long-term to lose and continue actually building a franchise. What's also amazing is not a single person in this thread has denied that it's better for the franchise in the long run to NOT make the playoffs

I have. IMO, it would be better for this organization as a whole to finish with 90 points and out of the playoffs than finish with 60 points and get the 1st overall pick in THIS YEAR'S draft. There is no Crosby in this draft, no Ovechkin, hell, not even an Erik Johnson. The organization would be better of making themselves a more attractive destination for free agents than they would by drafting someone in the top 5 vs someone in the teens this year. Just looking at the draft rankings a player is 2nd in one draft and 14th in another.

And that doesnt even touch on the fact that if they are able to sell more season tickets that ownership might be more willing to spend on one of those free agents.

[execwrite]

Here's why this is a silly argument.

Checketts to JD: "Why in the world are we playing so much better lately? Don't you understand that I know we won't be making the playoffs this year and that we will be better off with the third pick instead of the 14th pick?

"Go tell Andy Murray to make sure the team stops playing well."

Does anyone think that's what they're saying in the front office?

1) What's also amazing is not a single person in this thread has denied that it's better for the franchise in the long run to NOT make the playoffs.

2) Will you regret it when the Blues miss drafting a franchise player in the top 12 picks because they got the 13th pick?

3) I simply want the team to win the Cup. I guess it's good enough for you to just make the playoffs.

1) I deny it. You can get a franchise player in the middle of the first round.

2) You know for a fact that the 12th player in this draft will be a star and the 13th player will be a bust?

3) You think a team fails to make the playoffs five years in a row and then wins the Cup the next year? I'll pass on the Penguin Plan.

Why do the New Jersey Devils continually draft low and still win Stanley Cups and always compete?

[BringBackZezel]

Blues came dead last last season, is there a defined length of time they should come down the bottom before they push for a cup win?

No

[BringBackZezel]

You know what the sad thing about this bet is, you're betting on and hoping the team will perform badly.

Simply not true. I can cheer on the Blues for every second of every game and I'll still win the bet.

[BringBackZezel]

No one has suggested that this is what's going on. No one is suggesting that they try to lose.

I'm just pointing out the fact that with this team where it is in the standings and it's current talent level, it's actually BETTER for the franchise long-term to lose and continue actually building a franchise. What's also amazing is not a single person in this thread has denied that it's better for the franchise in the long run to NOT make the playoffs

I have. IMO, it would be better for this organization as a whole to finish with 90 points and out of the playoffs than finish with 60 points and get the 1st overall pick in THIS YEAR'S draft. There is no Crosby in this draft, no Ovechkin, hell, not even an Erik Johnson. The organization would be better of making themselves a more attractive destination for free agents than they would by drafting someone in the top 5 vs someone in the teens this year. Just looking at the draft rankings a player is 2nd in one draft and 14th in another.

And that doesnt even touch on the fact that if they are able to sell more season tickets that ownership might be more willing to spend on one of those free agents.

The difference between 1st and 13th is not just 12 positions....it's 12 picks in every round. That's signifigant.

The difference is that it gives your front office the best chance at drafting the players they like in each round. Yes, there is a chance for a bust. There's always that chance, but you're more likely to pick a bust at 13 than you are at 1 simply because at 1 you have more options.

If the Blues finish with 50 points or 90 points, if they're not in the playoffs, they will not increase season ticket sales signifigantly and they will not bring in UFAs without paying them above what it would take from a Cup contender.

Even if they make the playoffs, they will still have to pay UFAs more than what they would have to pay if they were a contender.

And you an I both know that season ticket sales and willingness to spend aren't related. You would hope they are, but especially now that there's a new ownership group who doesn't have deep pockets, it's hopeful at best to think that extra sales would equal extra spending.

[Tezmyster]

Blues came dead last last season, is there a defined length of time they should come down the bottom before they push for a cup win?

No

You know what the sad thing about this bet is, you're betting on and hoping the team will perform badly.

Simply not true. I can cheer on the Blues for every second of every game and I'll still win the bet.

Then stop your whinging about how the Blues should be aiming to get a low draft pick and cheer them on. As OS has already pointed out there is a lot more to winning then just getting a #1 draft pick, getting heads in the door and $'s in the bank is just as if not more important and that's exactly what the Blues are doing now.

[Hollywood]

Why are you sticking up for BBZ when he's so obviously out to lunch here? There's nothing wrong with tracking how the Blues have done since they started playing better...

Because he doesn't like me...



that, and they are ghey butt buddies. You know how lovers are.

He is right on both accounts.

Well played. When all else fails and you have nothing to say...

just agree. I used to laugh at myself too, then I grew some balls.

Oh and by the f'ing way, this thread is named...

"Tracking the...

I-M-P-R-O-B-A-B-L-E."

Which pretty much set the precedent from the get go that this team will most likely NOT make the playoffs...whether we want them to or not, because that obviously does not matter...as the loss of any or all of us as fans would not effect this franchise in the least.

It is not that I don't have anything to say, I just really don't like you. You are a racist, POS, douchebag, pussy. I don't like racist, POS,doucheba, pusssies.

[Hollywood]

BBZ-?

do you even know what your reading.

the poster clearly said he is tracking the games from the 30 game mark..not the coaching change.

the record shows as of the 30 game mark the blues are on pace to make the playoffs as of now...as long as they are positive on his chart they have a chance...infact id say 85 to 88 will make it..alot of the teams in teh west are going to beat on each other..and its up to the blues to take advantage of that.

Try reading the whole thread. BBZ has actually pointed out that they are further from the playoffs than they were before this little session of winning ways started.

85-88? Why do you think that? So this year will be different than the last 6 years huh? You just have a feeling? Tell me why you think that even though no team has made the playoffs in the last 6 years with that few of points (sans Vancouver in 01) that they will this year.

[BringBackZezel]

1) I deny it. You can get a franchise player in the middle of the first round.

Yes you can. You can get them in any round...but the higher you pick, the greater the chance that you let your scouting department pick the players they like best. That's not an opinion...that's undebatable mathmatical fact.

2) You know for a fact that the 12th player in this draft will be a star and the 13th player will be a bust?

Nope, but if your front office and scouting department has higher picks in every round, you are simply giving them a better chance in each round to pick that star player.

3) You think a team fails to make the playoffs five years in a row and then wins the Cup the next year? I'll pass on the Penguin Plan.

No one has said it works 100% of the time. It's about giving your franchise the best chance to win the cup....and the reason this method is better than trying to win the cup this year and letting assets walk is because of the rules of the CBA. You control the rights of your young signed players for years and you have salary control of them too. That means that you're talent level can be maintained at a higher level for a longer time. The longer you can maintain a high talent level and be withint the cap, the more chances you will have at winning the cup.

Why do the New Jersey Devils continually draft low and still win Stanley Cups and always compete?

They scout and draft well...and if you'd let their scouts pick at the top of each round for a few years, they would do even better. In addition, they don't shy away from trading away players for the long-term betterment of the franchise.

Trading away Tkachuk, Guerin, and other UFAs to be will result in more wins for the franchise than it will cost this one season.

[Hollywood]

1- The Blues will not make the playoffs this year.

I wouldn't say that, I'd say judging by recent performances they've got a pretty decent chance at making the playoffs.

How decent a chance?

I'll bet you $100 that they do not make the playoffs.

That same offer goes for everyone.

You know I'd probably take that bet if I was confident you'd honour your side.

Don't use that as your cop out.

[BringBackZezel]

Blues came dead last last season, is there a defined length of time they should come down the bottom before they push for a cup win?

No

You know what the sad thing about this bet is, you're betting on and hoping the team will perform badly.

Simply not true. I can cheer on the Blues for every second of every game and I'll still win the bet.

Then stop your whinging about how the Blues should be aiming to get a low draft pick and cheer them on. As OS has already pointed out there is a lot more to winning then just getting a #1 draft pick, getting heads in the door and $'s in the bank is just as if not more important and that's exactly what the Blues are doing now.

So you won't take the bet? Just as I thought.

Honestly, why do people care about money? It's not coming out of your pocket. I want the franchise to win a cup...and the more talent they get, the better the chances are of that. I could care less if they draw no-one this year. It just means I can keep sitting on the glass everytime I'm there.

Even if you do care about the franchise's money:
Wins sell seats, and the extra assets that will be aquired by picking 12 places higher in every round as well as the extra assets aquired by trading away assets that will walk at season's end will give the franchise MORE wins than they would lose in this one season.

[Hollywood]

Why are you sticking up for BBZ when he's so obviously out to lunch here? There's nothing wrong with tracking how the Blues have done since they started playing better...

How exactly is he out to lunch? It seems to me that he is the only person backing his argument up with real facts. Seems everyone else is awarding us the Cup. (exaggerated sarcasm...please tell me you picked up on that)

You want to pick 13 instead of 3rd. Ok. I don't. Neither does BBZ. Why wouldn;t I stick up for him when we share the same view point? The difference in picking 3rd and 13th? In one senario you don't get a choice of the best 12 prospects. In the other, you don't get a choice of the best 2 prospects. You miss the playoffs in both. You are a bad team in both. One senario helps you rebuild almost immediately, one you have to wait a year or two before it pays off.

I know which one I want.

Many people were liking the Brewer for Hemsky rumors a few days ago. Upon looking over the past drafts...Hemsky was drafted 13th in 2001...and you know who was drafted #3 that year? Alexandr Svitov....who has only played in 103 games and has 6 goals.

I'd have rather had the 13th pick instead of the 3rd pick that year.

And if I remember correctly...Brewer was a top 5 pick in 1997....so we'd be trading #5 pick for a #13 pick. Hmmmm...

Hmmmm.....what? You want me to point out all the other years that the opposite was true?

You know, Datsyuk was drafted in the 6th round....we should just trade all of our picks for 6th rounders. If you want to live by the exception to the rule, go ahead. I'd rather go with the odds.

[BringBackZezel]

Hmmmm.....what? You want me to point out all the other years that the opposite was true?

You know, Datsyuk was drafted in the 6th round....we should just trade all of our picks for 6th rounders. If you want to live by the exception to the rule, go ahead. I'd rather go with the odds.

No shit.

Martin St. Louis was undrafted and he's not only a MVP but a Cup winner also. I guess everyone wants to trade away all the Blues draft picks.

[Tezmyster]

Don't use that as your cop out.

So you won't take the bet? Just as I thought.

At what point did I say I wasn't going to take it? I actually said all I wanted was guarantee you'd pay up. Fine then, you're on.

[ledzeppelinfan1]

So...whatever then. I'll keep tracking this thread, but the discussion within has resulted in two camps holding on to their side of the debate with zero to little chance of comprimise which has in turn given spawn to nothing but a waste of time.

I want this team to win...and if...a big F'n IF...they make the playoffs, why would a Stanley Cup be out of the question at that point, IF they were to pull off such a feat?

It wouldn't, because this is hockey and crazy things happen.

But I won't even think of holding my breath for that.

The original intent was to mark what kind of sucess the team would need from the 30 game marker to wind up with a chance at the 8 spot. And you know what...a month later they are still at it.

Should be interesting.

[Hollywood]

Here's why this is a silly argument.

Checketts to JD: "Why in the world are we playing so much better lately? Don't you understand that I know we won't be making the playoffs this year and that we will be better off with the third pick instead of the 14th pick?

"Go tell Andy Murray to make sure the team stops playing well."

Does anyone think that's what they're saying in the front office?

Who has said that? That's horse sh[/]it. No one has said they should lose or stop trying. If you were to read the whole posts you would realize the main thing that BBZ and I are condoning is trading the aging vets at the deadline for the greater good of the franchise. You keep on rooting for the Guerins, Tkachuks, Weights, and Drakes of the team. I'll keep rooting for the team.


You'll pass on the penguin plan? I'd take the penguins team right now in a heartbeat. How did they get that team? You keep wishing and wanting for that first round playoff loss. In the mean time, I'll continue to hope they build a team that has a good chance at the cup for many years.

[BringBackZezel]

Don't use that as your cop out.

So you won't take the bet? Just as I thought.

At what point did I say I wasn't going to take it? I actually said all I wanted was guarantee you'd pay up. Fine then, you're on.

Sounds good. I've got $100 that says the Blues will not make the playoffs. You have $100 that says they will.

From now until the end of the season, they need to average at least 1.342 points per game to make the playoffs.

A record of 25-12-1 over the final 38 games would get them to 90 points...but even that wouldn't guarantee the playoffs. They need to pass 5 teams, meaning none of those 5 can hit a hot streak between now and then also.

The bet is on.

[BoxCar]

It would have been better for the Cardinals to miss the playoffs. I'm just saying for the long-term benefit of the team, the higher pick was the better option.

Winning is the best thing this franchise can do. It is the best thing any franchise can do. To argue anything else is irrational. Yes, a lower pick means a better chance of a great player, but doesn't this turn-around make you think that our drafting recently has helped? That the team is already moving in the right direction without EJ and other picks? That our youngsters and signings are helping? I will keep rooting for that first round playoff appearance even if its a sweep because it is good for the fans. And none of you can say that you won't be glued to your tv for Game 1 of Round 1 if the Blues pull it off somehow.

I'll take the 15th or 14th overall pick and a fun season over watching our young "talent" and "wasted signings" fail. OS is right on on this one. And if the Blues scouting staff is improved or top shelf, then they can find good talent at lower picks.