Tracking the Improbable...

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Hollywood

Post by Hollywood »

ledzeppelinfan1 wrote:
BringBackZezel wrote:
ledzeppelinfan1 wrote:
BringBackZezel wrote:
ledzeppelinfan1 wrote:(8-2-3 .731 +3.9%)

We're doing just fine.
If you have to pick and choose your sampling to make your case, then it's not a very good case to begin with.
Read the first post in the thread. I started at what pace they would need from the 30 game marker going forward to reach a given amount of points (90)...and we are ahead of that pace. Why not start when they STARTED to play well and move from there, seems to me that a sampling that did not include ALL of their solid play would be a weak sample.
Or you could just take their body of work as a whole, and not only the part you like to make your point. Are you trying to make the case the the first 30 games of the season didn't count?
Why would I take into account the first 30 games when trying to see how well they would need to play after a coaching change had made such a difference?

Why do things only have to be looked at one way? Yours? Or do you dislike that when using my model this team is right on track for a probable playoff birth?

Even though I too doubt we will actually make it, I made this model which put our chances in the most positive light.

So, now what? And don't not answer me.
Yeah BBZ, don't not answer him.

Hey Strom Thurmond, the first 30 games count the same as the last 10 games.

Washington has won 3 of their last 4. They are on pace to finish the season with well over 100 points and will probably second in the East.

Anaheim on the other hand is a terrible team. They have lost 4 of their last 6. They should finish the year at about 85 points. Guess they will come just short of the playoffs.

Nashville on the other hand is going to set a record. They have won 4 of their last 4. They are on pace to accumulate 80 more points this year and finish the season with close to 150.

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Post by BringBackZezel »

ledzeppelinfan1 wrote: Why would I take into account the first 30 games when trying to see how well they would need to play after a coaching change had made such a difference?
Which do you think is more indicitave of the talent this team has: the 28 games before the coaching change or the 16 games since?

Also, why do you use a record of "8-2-3 .731" when their record since the coaching chance is 9-4-3? That comes out to a pace of 1.3125 points per game, which if they could continue that pace, would put them to finish the season at 88.875 (89) points, or less than your set number of 90 points.

Also, why do you think 90 points will make it? Did you know that one WC team has made the playoffs with 90 points since 2000...and that was the 2000-01 Canucks.
ledzeppelinfan1 wrote:Why do things only have to be looked at one way? Yours? Or do you dislike that when using my model this team is right on track for a probable playoff birth?
It doesn't have to be looked at one way. Look at it however you'd like, but ultimately be realistic. If you want to look at the team post coaching change, they're not on pace to make the playoffs. If you want to look at the team overall, they're not on pace to make the playoffs.

Furthermore, if you really want to pitch the idea that it's possible, please find me one example of a team who had 18 points or less 28 games into the season that ultimately made the playoffs.
ledzeppelinfan1 wrote:Even though I too doubt we will actually make it, I made this model which put our chances in the most positive light.

So, now what? And don't not answer me.
The most positive light you can put on this season is if it's not wasted. They're not going to make the playoffs. You know that, any I'd also bet that 98% of the posters here know that too. It's not a bad thing to cheer on the team, but when the last horn sounds on the Blues season, they won't be in the playoffs, then your "positive light" will be the source of your disappointment.

Instead look at the good that can come out of this season: They can dump players, free up salary and stock their farm system so that instead of needing to win 75% of their remaining games to be an 8 seed we can look forward to them actually winning the Cup.

If you can't view things that way, then go back to your question of "Why do things only have to be looked at one way?" except realize that I'm simply viewing the Blues misfortunes the last few seasons as part of the greater good.
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Post by OS »

Why are you sticking up for BBZ when he's so obviously out to lunch here? There's nothing wrong with tracking how the Blues have done since they started playing better...
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Post by BringBackZezel »

OS wrote:Why are you sticking up for BBZ when he's so obviously out to lunch here? There's nothing wrong with tracking how the Blues have done since they started playing better...
I would appreciate it if you'd simply leave me alone. You and I don't agree on things. That doesn't mean either one of us are "out to lunch".
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Post by ledzeppelinfan1 »

OS wrote:Why are you sticking up for BBZ when he's so obviously out to lunch here? There's nothing wrong with tracking how the Blues have done since they started playing better...
Because he doesn't like me...


















that, and they are ghey butt buddies. You know how lovers are. :lol:

Hollywood

Post by Hollywood »

OS wrote:Why are you sticking up for BBZ when he's so obviously out to lunch here? There's nothing wrong with tracking how the Blues have done since they started playing better...
How exactly is he out to lunch? It seems to me that he is the only person backing his argument up with real facts. Seems everyone else is awarding us the Cup. (exaggerated sarcasm...please tell me you picked up on that)

You want to pick 13 instead of 3rd. Ok. I don't. Neither does BBZ. Why wouldn;t I stick up for him when we share the same view point? The difference in picking 3rd and 13th? In one senario you don't get a choice of the best 12 prospects. In the other, you don't get a choice of the best 2 prospects. You miss the playoffs in both. You are a bad team in both. One senario helps you rebuild almost immediately, one you have to wait a year or two before it pays off.

I know which one I want.

Hollywood

Post by Hollywood »

ledzeppelinfan1 wrote:
OS wrote:Why are you sticking up for BBZ when he's so obviously out to lunch here? There's nothing wrong with tracking how the Blues have done since they started playing better...
Because he doesn't like me...



that, and they are ghey butt buddies. You know how lovers are. :lol:

He is right on both accounts.

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Post by OS »

Hollywood wrote:How exactly is he out to lunch? It seems to me that he is the only person backing his argument up with real facts. Seems everyone else is awarding us the Cup. (exaggerated sarcasm...please tell me you picked up on that)

You want to pick 13 instead of 3rd. Ok. I don't. Neither does BBZ. Why wouldn;t I stick up for him when we share the same view point? The difference in picking 3rd and 13th? In one senario you don't get a choice of the best 12 prospects. In the other, you don't get a choice of the best 2 prospects. You miss the playoffs in both. You are a bad team in both. One senario helps you rebuild almost immediately, one you have to wait a year or two before it pays off.

I know which one I want.
I want the one that's going to win us a Cup sooner.
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Post by Sudsy11 »

Wanted to throw my 2 cents into the discussion. I've been assuming all along that the Blues won't be in realistic contention to make the playoffs come trade deadline time. I still believe that will be the case but each victory gives me more doubt. I sure hope the Blues keep winning and prove me wrong. If the Blues are in contention, no way can they be sellers IMO. Even if the Stanley Cup is only a dream for this year you play the games to win and try to make the playoffs. Selling at that point would be demoralizing to the players and fans.
However, if they are out or only have faint hopes, I believe they should sell. The core of young players will be fine for the remaining weeks after the deadline until the end of the season. These guys endured over a year of cluelessness under Kitchen and have recovered. It may even spark some renewed intensity and/or interest in the team for more kids to play for several weeks. Either way it's worth possibly losing a little momentum at the end of the year to strengthen the cupboard IMO. As far as attendance goes, once the Blues get eliminated from the playoffs and the Redbird spring training begins many fans will lose interest anyway. I believe offseason acquisitions and the additions of EJ and possibly Oshie will spark plenty of fan interest for next year. And I think next year is the year the Blues will make a legitimate playoff push.
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Post by ledzeppelinfan1 »

Hollywood wrote:
ledzeppelinfan1 wrote:
OS wrote:Why are you sticking up for BBZ when he's so obviously out to lunch here? There's nothing wrong with tracking how the Blues have done since they started playing better...
Because he doesn't like me...



that, and they are ghey butt buddies. You know how lovers are. :lol:

He is right on both accounts.
Well played. When all else fails and you have nothing to say...

just agree. I used to laugh at myself too, then I grew some balls.

Oh and by the f'ing way, this thread is named...

"Tracking the...

I-M-P-R-O-B-A-B-L-E."

Which pretty much set the precedent from the get go that this team will most likely NOT make the playoffs...whether we want them to or not, because that obviously does not matter...as the loss of any or all of us as fans would not effect this franchise in the least.

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Post by execwrite »

If they use kids in the lineup next year, they will take a step back instead of forward. Don't think they will do that. The kids will have to earn their way into the lineup one at a time over a few years.

I now expect them to re-sign these vets or go get others. This ownership is into winning, not on-the-job training.

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Post by frivolousz21 »

BBZ-?

do you even know what your reading.

the poster clearly said he is tracking the games from the 30 game mark..not the coaching change.

the record shows as of the 30 game mark the blues are on pace to make the playoffs as of now...as long as they are positive on his chart they have a chance...infact id say 85 to 88 will make it..alot of the teams in teh west are going to beat on each other..and its up to the blues to take advantage of that.
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Post by ledzeppelinfan1 »

frivolousz21 wrote:BBZ-?

do you even know what your reading.

the poster clearly said he is tracking the games from the 30 game mark..not the coaching change.

the record shows as of the 30 game mark the blues are on pace to make the playoffs as of now...as long as they are positive on his chart they have a chance...infact id say 85 to 88 will make it..alot of the teams in teh west are going to beat on each other..and its up to the blues to take advantage of that.
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Post by rizzobluefan »

My 2 cents. I think that the youth that we have playing with the team to date, Bakes, Wideman, Stemppy, etc would benefit more from learning how to win. How would any player benefit from learning to lose? I do not know if we will make the playoffs, but I think that the overall benefit of winning more then losing would do our current youth (prospects) more use. Even if we are still waiting for certain prospects (ie EJ, Sodenberg) do we want them learning the NHL from players that only know how to lose.


Thus, I would rather pick high teens, then in the top five.

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Post by Tezmyster »

BringBackZezel wrote:
Tezmyster wrote:
Hollywood wrote:1- The Blues will not make the playoffs this year.
I wouldn't say that, I'd say judging by recent performances they've got a pretty decent chance at making the playoffs.
How decent a chance?

I'll bet you $100 that they do not make the playoffs.

That same offer goes for everyone.
You know I'd probably take that bet if I was confident you'd honour your side.

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Post by cprice12 »

Hollywood wrote:
ledzeppelinfan1 wrote:
BringBackZezel wrote:
ledzeppelinfan1 wrote:
BringBackZezel wrote:
ledzeppelinfan1 wrote:(8-2-3 .731 +3.9%)

We're doing just fine.
If you have to pick and choose your sampling to make your case, then it's not a very good case to begin with.
Read the first post in the thread. I started at what pace they would need from the 30 game marker going forward to reach a given amount of points (90)...and we are ahead of that pace. Why not start when they STARTED to play well and move from there, seems to me that a sampling that did not include ALL of their solid play would be a weak sample.
Or you could just take their body of work as a whole, and not only the part you like to make your point. Are you trying to make the case the the first 30 games of the season didn't count?
Why would I take into account the first 30 games when trying to see how well they would need to play after a coaching change had made such a difference?

Why do things only have to be looked at one way? Yours? Or do you dislike that when using my model this team is right on track for a probable playoff birth?

Even though I too doubt we will actually make it, I made this model which put our chances in the most positive light.

So, now what? And don't not answer me.
Yeah BBZ, don't not answer him.

Hey Strom Thurmond, the first 30 games count the same as the last 10 games.

Washington has won 3 of their last 4. They are on pace to finish the season with well over 100 points and will probably second in the East.

Anaheim on the other hand is a terrible team. They have lost 4 of their last 6. They should finish the year at about 85 points. Guess they will come just short of the playoffs.

Nashville on the other hand is going to set a record. They have won 4 of their last 4. They are on pace to accumulate 80 more points this year and finish the season with close to 150.
Am I the only one that gets this?
The thread was started at the 30 game mark, correct?
At that point, it was guessed what the Blues would have to do to make the playoffs and it is being tracked from there on out.

Pretty simple.

Actually, right now...I don't care about any of the past games...it's all about winning the next one.
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Post by cprice12 »

Hollywood wrote:
OS wrote:Why are you sticking up for BBZ when he's so obviously out to lunch here? There's nothing wrong with tracking how the Blues have done since they started playing better...
How exactly is he out to lunch? It seems to me that he is the only person backing his argument up with real facts. Seems everyone else is awarding us the Cup. (exaggerated sarcasm...please tell me you picked up on that)

You want to pick 13 instead of 3rd. Ok. I don't. Neither does BBZ. Why wouldn;t I stick up for him when we share the same view point? The difference in picking 3rd and 13th? In one senario you don't get a choice of the best 12 prospects. In the other, you don't get a choice of the best 2 prospects. You miss the playoffs in both. You are a bad team in both. One senario helps you rebuild almost immediately, one you have to wait a year or two before it pays off.

I know which one I want.

Many people were liking the Brewer for Hemsky rumors a few days ago. Upon looking over the past drafts...Hemsky was drafted 13th in 2001...and you know who was drafted #3 that year? Alexandr Svitov....who has only played in 103 games and has 6 goals.

I'd have rather had the 13th pick instead of the 3rd pick that year.

And if I remember correctly...Brewer was a top 5 pick in 1997....so we'd be trading #5 pick for a #13 pick. Hmmmm...
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Post by execwrite »

Here's why this is a silly argument.

Checketts to JD: "Why in the world are we playing so much better lately? Don't you understand that I know we won't be making the playoffs this year and that we will be better off with the third pick instead of the 14th pick?

"Go tell Andy Murray to make sure the team stops playing well."

Does anyone think that's what they're saying in the front office?

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Post by BringBackZezel »

Tezmyster wrote:
BringBackZezel wrote:
Tezmyster wrote:
Hollywood wrote:1- The Blues will not make the playoffs this year.
I wouldn't say that, I'd say judging by recent performances they've got a pretty decent chance at making the playoffs.
How decent a chance?

I'll bet you $100 that they do not make the playoffs.

That same offer goes for everyone.
You know I'd probably take that bet if I was confident you'd honour your side.
How about thiswe'll have an escrow: I'll give the $100 to someone you trust and you do the same. Let them payout to the winner.

This same offer goes to everyone.
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Post by BringBackZezel »

execwrite wrote:Here's why this is a silly argument.

Checketts to JD: "Why in the world are we playing so much better lately? Don't you understand that I know we won't be making the playoffs this year and that we will be better off with the third pick instead of the 14th pick?

"Go tell Andy Murray to make sure the team stops playing well."

Does anyone think that's what they're saying in the front office?
No one has suggested that this is what's going on. No one is suggesting that they try to lose.

I'm just pointing out the fact that with this team where it is in the standings and it's current talent level, it's actually BETTER for the franchise long-term to lose and continue actually building a franchise. What's also amazing is not a single person in this thread has denied that it's better for the franchise in the long run to NOT make the playoffs.

Most people agree that Pleau was going OK until Laurie wanted to win now and that's the point where the franchise really screwed itself. That's what happens when a team who doesn't have the talent or depth for a serious championship push goes for it anyway.

Like Chris Pronger said "This franchise will never be good until it's bad"

Ask yourself this:

Will you regret it when the Blues miss drafting a franchise player in the top 12 picks because they got the 13th pick?

Will making the playoffs then losing in the first round really make you happy?

I simply want the team to win the Cup. I guess it's good enough for you to just make the playoffs.
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