Goaltenders and future playoff performance

[theohall]

Jake Allen (Age 26) has played in 11 playoff games, started 8, was named the starter at the beginning of one series and lost in 6 to the Wild when the Blues scored a whopping 2, 4, 0, 6, 1, and 1 goal. But somehow that lack of scoring in 4 of 6 games was Jake Allen's fault and equates to Allen being incapable of winning a playoff series. Interestingly, given the Blues current lack of even-strength scoring, the same situation will likely arise in the playoffs.

Since someone claims Allen is incapable of winning a series in the playoffs based on that 11 game 8 start sample size (a completely ludicrous assertion), let's play a game. Using the standard of 8 playoff starts by which to judge future performance of a goaltender, which of these goalies would you refuse to extend?

Code: Select all

Goalie   GAA   SV% W L
Player 1 2.87 .895 4 4  
Player 2 2.27 .925 3 5 
Player 3 2.91 .908 3 5 
Player 4 2.65 .910 3 5 
Player 5 2.96 .920 4 4 
Player 6 2.70 .901 5 2 (no decision in one start due to being pulled)

Allen    2.56 .897 3 5 (for comparison - only the 8 starts)

I'll wait a little bit for replies before revealing the names

[Oaklandblue]

Jake Allen (Age 26) has played in 11 playoff games, started 8, was named the starter at the beginning of one series and lost in 6 to the Wild when the Blues scored a whopping 2, 4, 0, 6, 1, and 1 goal. But somehow that lack of scoring in 4 of 6 games was Jake Allen's fault and equates to Allen being incapable of winning a playoff series. Interestingly, given the Blues current lack of even-strength scoring, the same situation will likely arise in the playoffs.

Since someone claims Allen is incapable of winning a series in the playoffs based on that 11 game 8 start sample size (a completely ludicrous assertion), let's play a game. Using the standard of 8 playoff starts by which to judge future performance of a goaltender, which of these goalies would you refuse to extend?

Code: Select all

Goalie   GAA   SV% W L
Player 1 2.87 .895 4 4  
Player 2 2.27 .925 3 5 
Player 3 2.91 .908 3 5 
Player 4 2.65 .910 3 5 
Player 5 2.96 .920 4 4 
Player 6 2.70 .901 5 2 (no decision in one start due to being pulled)

Allen    2.56 .897 3 5 (for comparison - only the 8 starts)

I'll wait a little bit for replies before revealing the names

To date, Jake Allen hasn't won a playoff series. I haven't said not to re-sign Jake, I've always had the stance to bridge/extend his contract (Along with Elliott) and if he continued to play well or improved, to pay him with the next contract with the main emphasis being to prepare Husso to be moved up to the NHL and take over the reins.

If either really fell apart they would be cost-controlled and it would be easier to move them than it would if they fell apart and made 4m a year. The Isles are having that very problem with Halak's contract and I didn't want us to be in that same position.

As to this list, is this a list of netminders in the past 10-15 years or more current than that? A netminder from 20 years ago could roll an .880 and win the Vezina; equipment was much smaller and if I recall (Correct me if I'm wrong), there was a lot more scoring than there is now. And are these goaltenders in question in line with Allen in terms of age and sample size? There have been netminders younger than Allen who other teams would have dropped back into the minor if they ran a sub .900 and given them time to grow. Others well... trade off Hasek in a situation akin to like we did Bishop.

Long post made longer in an attempt to make it short: I need more information before I can answer this.

[theohall]

These are all active goaltenders under post-lockout rules. The youngest goalie on this list was Age 24 when they had completed their 8th playoff start.

Had I pulled up older goalies under different rules, the statistics are insane in what goalies did with teams being allowed to hook, hold, interfere, etc.

And guess how many goalies on the list above had won a series in their 1st 8 starts? This is the standard you are applying to Allen. 8 starts, the starter for 1 playoff series. One series loss. No way he can win in the playoffs, ever.

Husso won't be here next season. At the earliest, he's a backup in 2018-19 assuming he develops faster than normal. Allen's numbers warrant the contract he received based on what other goalies are being paid and Allen's Age. There are quite a few performing quite worse being paid significantly more.

With the contract ending in 20-21, the salary drops to 4M that season - barring strange occurrences, that's when Husso likely becomes a full-time part of the Blues roster. Allen is being paid as a starter for what is likely the time it will take for Husso to be ready.

Husso - 21 right now.
Allen played 15 games with the Blues when he was 22 as an emergency recall.
He didn't officially take over as backup until he was 24.

So in 3 years Husso will be 24 - oh, that's the 20/21 season - the last year of Allen's contract, when Husso should be ready to be a full-time part of the Blues. And this is normal for most goaltenders who reach the NHL and stay - right around age 24. There are exceptions in terms of goalies being ready sooner, but not many of them.

But go ahead and berate the contract without considering all context - as you've done with the entire Elliott situation.

[theohall]

Just because....

Since Feb 1 - following Blues coaching change...

Code: Select all

Name	   GP	W	L	GAA	 SV%	  SO
Allen	  14	9	5	1.80	0.941	2
Elliott	15	12  2	1.93	0.935	2

Elliott had one no decision when he only played the 3rd period in a loss.

In Allen's 5 losses, the Blues scored 7 goals total. Clearly this was due to not keeping Elliott.

[theohall]

And let's take this one step further. Much is being made of Elliott's current ability to step up his game in Feb-March-April. So let's look at his 1st four regular seasons in Feb-Mar-Apr and compare it to Allen, who is currently in his fourth.

Code: Select all

Player	   GP	 W	 L	Win %	GAA	SV%	 SO
Allen	    58	34	18	58.62%	2.19	0.922	6
Elliott	  78	35	35	44.87%	2.71	0.906	7

And yet the Blues shouldn't have extended Allen to his current contract, kept Elliott as the #1, and had two unhappy goaltenders. As bad as Elliott had been prior to joining the Blues, he did improve. So who says Allen won't be better given he has already been better at the same stage of his career. Allen is proving to be just as capable at stepping up his game and he's only 26 compared to Elliott's 31 and Elliott didn't start having these great Feb-Mar-Apr runs until he was 28.

If one wants to argue playoffs - Elliott wound up being pulled in his 4th start and completely from the series after going 1-2 in 4 starts after being deemed the Senators best option to win in the playoffs and handed the #1 role.

[Oaklandblue]

Just because....

Since Feb 1 - following Blues coaching change...

Code: Select all

Name	   GP	W	L	GAA	 SV%	  SO
Allen	  14	9	5	1.80	0.941	2
Elliott	15	12  2	1.93	0.935	2

Elliott had one no decision when he only played the 3rd period in a loss.

In Allen's 5 losses, the Blues scored 7 goals total. Clearly this was due to not keeping Elliott.

After the post-season, we will discuss this. We can sit here and talk about where a netminder is at at ANY period of time with any stat selection to prove ANY point we're trying to make. The one I want to see is how Allen handles the playoffs. If he shoots for the moon or shows up, I'll withdraw my concern with him because at that point he'll have earned my faith.

I don't care about the regular season as much as you and many of you seem to. As it stands, Allen is a mirror of Elliott in the sense that he gets hot then shits the bed; so far Allen does much less the later than the afore so he's got potential to be a solid starter, unlike Elliott.

Where they differ is in the post season. Allen has NEVER had any success in the post season in any level of his career, look it up. He gets in, he chokes and it's over. People said that Elliott and Allen are a product of the Hitchcock System and what we're seeing is that both netminders succeed in spite of it, not because of it. After the post-season, if Allen is able to help the Blues go deep, he'll have earned my faith. As it stands, he has some fairly big shoes to fill, but if he stays the course as he is and the team in front of him continues as they are, I see no reason why he can't succeed. I'm not a big Allen supporter, but I'll give him that much.

[theohall]

Where they differ is in the post season. Allen has NEVER had any success in the post season in any level of his career, look it up. He gets in, he chokes and it's over. People said that Elliott and Allen are a product of the Hitchcock System and what we're seeing is that both netminders succeed in spite of it, not because of it. After the post-season, if Allen is able to help the Blues go deep, he'll have earned my faith. As it stands, he has some fairly big shoes to fill, but if he stays the course as he is and the team in front of him continues as they are, I see no reason why he can't succeed. I'm not a big Allen supporter, but I'll give him that much.

In 2008, Allen won a gold medal for Canada in the U-18 World Championships winning MVP of the tournament while posting a 1.43 GAA, 2 SO, and .948 SV%
In 2009, He went 4-1 for Canada getting Silver in the World Jr Championships.

That one loss in the 2009 Gold Medal game is Allen's only loss in International Tournament play.

His last year of junior play, Allen led his team to the Conference Finals.

Elliott had one NCAA championship and a Hobey Baker nomination (not win), in comparison to Allen's success at the U-18s and World Jrs., while Elliott completely shit the bed in his first chance as a NHL playoff starter. But you seem to keep ignoring Elliott completely shitting the bed in that series. How many Conference Finals, World Jr Championships, or U18 Championships has Elliott played??

So, maybe fact-checking a little more might help on your part.

[Oaklandblue]

Where they differ is in the post season. Allen has NEVER had any success in the post season in any level of his career, look it up. He gets in, he chokes and it's over. People said that Elliott and Allen are a product of the Hitchcock System and what we're seeing is that both netminders succeed in spite of it, not because of it. After the post-season, if Allen is able to help the Blues go deep, he'll have earned my faith. As it stands, he has some fairly big shoes to fill, but if he stays the course as he is and the team in front of him continues as they are, I see no reason why he can't succeed. I'm not a big Allen supporter, but I'll give him that much.

In 2008, Allen won a gold medal for Canada in the U-18 World Championships winning MVP of the tournament while posting a 1.43 GAA, 2 SO, and .948 SV%
In 2009, He went 4-1 for Canada getting Silver in the World Jr Championships.

That one loss in the 2009 Gold Medal game is Allen's only loss in International Tournament play.

His last year of junior play, Allen led his team to the Conference Finals.

Elliott had one NCAA championship and a Hobey Baker nomination (not win), in comparison to Allen's success at the U-18s and World Jrs., while Elliott completely shit the bed in his first chance as a NHL playoff starter. But you seem to keep ignoring Elliott completely shitting the bed in that series. How many Conference Finals, World Jr Championships, or U18 Championships has Elliott played??

So, maybe fact-checking a little more might help on your part.

You related to Jake Allen or something? You seem to love the guy as much as I love Elliott

Regardless, touche, I stand corrected. Good stuff to know.

Jake Allen will have earned my faith When and IF he wins a playoff series for us. Now, if he shoots .920-.940 and we lose in the first round, I'll have his back. Regardless he needs to show up and we can sit here and go back and forth on this all day and all night long but the fact is Elliott has proven alot more in Blue than Allen. Then again, he's had more time than Jake, so we'll give him time.


You can say what you like about my liking Brian Elliott, but the bottom line is, while with the Blues he's won hardware (The Jennings with Halak), was an All-Star and the first goaltender since 2001-2002 to win playoff series for the Blues, something Miller nor Allen accomplished (Halak got injured so I don't count him). Elliott also holds the Franchise record for lowest GAA, Save % and Shutouts.

You want to argue that or do you want to wait until Jake Allen has accomplished something in the NHL first?

[theohall]

You are seriously counting the William Jennings trophy that was shared with Halak?? That's a reach.

I'll take a Gold Medal MVP (individual award) in a tournament over a regular season shared award since this is about tournament style performance, right?

How many tournament/playoff awards has Elliott won? What's that??? None.... Oh....

Are you related to Elliott or what? You keep mentioning playoffs, but other than one NCAA championship, Elliott has been beyond the 2nd round in tournament style format once in his career. Hell, he went 0-4 the first time he reached the 2nd round of the playoffs. But, clearly, Elliott is this way better playoff performer based on reaching the Conference Finals once in 9 years????

And while using the NCAA Championship thing, that only takes 4 wins - a far cry from what is necessary to even reach Conference Finals in even Junior level play.

What do I want? A realistic look at Elliott's career and capabilities vice this over-statement of his abilities in comparison to Allen, whose just getting started with 5 years less experience, but a stronger resume in terms of tournament style play - which regular season awards and all-star appearances have nothing to do with. Being selected to Team Canada usually means you are the best goaltender in Canada and Allen was selected to that role twice. But I guess Elliott's Jennings award and All-Star appearance make him so much better than a goalie 6 years younger.

[Oaklandblue]

You are seriously counting the William Jennings trophy that was shared with Halak?? That's a reach.

I'll take a Gold Medal MVP (individual award) in a tournament over a regular season shared award since this is about tournament style performance, right?

How many tournament/playoff awards has Elliott won? What's that??? None.... Oh....

Are you related to Elliott or what? You keep mentioning playoffs, but other than one NCAA championship, Elliott has been beyond the 2nd round in tournament style format once in his career. Hell, he went 0-4 the first time he reached the 2nd round of the playoffs. But, clearly, Elliott is this way better playoff performer based on reaching the Conference Finals once in 9 years????

And while using the NCAA Championship thing, that only takes 4 wins - a far cry from what is necessary to even reach Conference Finals in even Junior level play.

What do I want? A realistic look at Elliott's career and capabilities vice this over-statement of his abilities in comparison to Allen, whose just getting started with 5 years less experience, but a stronger resume in terms of tournament style play - which regular season awards and all-star appearances have nothing to do with. Being selected to Team Canada usually means you are the best goaltender in Canada and Allen was selected to that role twice. But I guess Elliott's Jennings award and All-Star appearance make him so much better than a goalie 6 years younger.

.940, 1.56 ends a lot of arguments. His share of the Jennings Trophy was earned. Last I looked it IS an NHL trophy, so it counts.

What he has accomplished as a Blue (Franchise records, Playoff series wins) makes him, at this point and time, better than Allen or at least his legacy as a Blue is better than Allen's and I can't see how anyone at this point and time can argue that.

This doesn't mean Jake Allen is trash, right now I haven't seen enough to put the kind of faith and confidence in him that others have and his contract's dollar amount is a far, far reach, regardless the rationale, based on the time he's played in the STL. Doesn't mean he won't win a Vezina, doesn't mean he'll never win a Cup or won't carry us to one, means at this point and time Elliott has proven more and that's what I want on from a franchise that's full of promise but hasn't gone all the way. Proof. Show me we can do this, show me we can win. Elliott hasn't won it all, but he has won series, and that's the first step to winning it all and you build from that. Granted this isn't entirely on Allen, in fact, it's management more than anything else. I just want to see proof that Allen is part of the puzzle in the playoffs. Show me that and I've got his back.

[theohall]

Now, if he shoots .920-.940 and we lose in the first round

So you are going to hold Allen to a standard Elliott managed once in his playoff career - last year at .921.

That seems real generous of you.

Elliot playoff SV%
09-10 .853
11-12 .904
12-13 .919
14-15 .857
15-16 .921

Sure glad there is absolutely no bias in how you judge goaltenders.

[Oaklandblue]

Now, if he shoots .920-.940 and we lose in the first round

So you are going to hold Allen to a standard Elliott managed once in his playoff career - last year at .921.

That seems real generous of you.

Elliot playoff SV%
09-10 .853
11-12 .904
12-13 .919
14-15 .857
15-16 .921

Sure glad there is absolutely no bias in how you judge goaltenders.

Until Allen proves something in the NHL, you don't have much a leg to stand on. We have both agreed that Allen needs time and he's got a multiyear contract, so he'll get the time. AFTER he proves something, then say something. I don't think anyone here cares what he's done anywhere else but in the NHL with STL. I've conceded that he's showing promise as a Starter and if he continues as he is, he'll put my concerns to rest but he needs to prove it. Whether you agree/disagree with me about Elliott is a non-issue. I don't want to talk about what Jake can do, I want to see him do it.

You want to continue throwing up stats like above at this point, don't expect a response from me. I've said all I will on the subject and hope Allen proves me wrong.

[glen a richter]

Elliott is a fine 1B goalie, but he's not #1 material. He can have hot stretches, but he can also righteously suck at times. You know who else can have hot stretches but also suck at times? Every damn goalie in the league. The difference is follow up. Elliott, while with the Blues, was playing so poorly at one time that he was sent back to the AHL for a stretch.

Frankly I don't know what the point of this whole argument is anyway. Elliott asked to be traded, he was traded, and we got a damn good sleeper prospect as a result. If you're going to argue that Elliott got us to the conference finals last year, I'll counter-argue that we got that far on shear luck. We won the Chicago series because one of their defenders was in an inopportune position and the puck deflected off his skate on a pass into the net. If I'm not mistaken, there were also a couple of double posts that could have tilted the series to Chicago. We then went on to barely survive against Dallas who was without Tyler Seguin the entire series. Make no mistake, if he's healthy that series goes on a dramatic tilt the other way. And then we shit the bed against San Jose to the point that Elliott loses his job to Allen. Had we managed to get past San Jose there was no worldly way we were beating Pittsburgh in a 7 game series. Last years playoffs were an anomoly and not a domination. Suggesting Elliott is the greatest thing since sliced bread because he got us to the conference finals is misleading at best. Roman Turek did the same thing and you guys crucify him on a regular basis.

[Toasted Oates]

Just to pile on for the hell of it:

Elliott's career high for starts in a season is 51 (2010-11 w/ Sens and Avs).

Allen is up to 49 starts this year w/ 17 games left.

Elliott's career high for wins in a season is 29 (2009-10 w/ Sens).

Allen has 26 this year w/, again, 17 games left.

In terms of regular season play, which matters, Allen has already surpassed Elliott if we look @ where the latter was @ 26 years old.

What I agree with Oakland on is that players, especially goalies, make their name in the playoffs. Elliott has had one memorable playoff run and he had it @ age 30. We'll see what he does this year and what that yields in free agency .

To succeed in postseason play, though, you have to have the opportunity and Elliott has had more in that regard simply because he's been in the league longer.

Then again, as Glen suggests, why should we care? Elliott is gone, was always going to be gone, and they got a good looking prospect for him. I'm sure we're all appreciative of Elliott's contributions, but that's history.

But if Jake falls on his face, by all means dust the Kermit memes off and pat yourself on the back.

[theohall]

Now, if he shoots .920-.940 and we lose in the first round

So you are going to hold Allen to a standard Elliott managed once in his playoff career - last year at .921.

That seems real generous of you.

Elliot playoff SV%
09-10 .853
11-12 .904
12-13 .919
14-15 .857
15-16 .921

Sure glad there is absolutely no bias in how you judge goaltenders.

Until Elliott posts a .920-.940 save percentage this season in the playoffs, Elliott sucks as a playoff goalie. 1 time past the 2nd round and he's THE ANSWER for the Blues over Allen, seriously??? Statistics tell stories far better than opinions with little fact behind them. Facts are Elliott is 1-2, 4-4, 4-4 in his first three series as a starter, getting completely knocked out in his 1st series start, and swept in the 2nd round in his next two. It wasn't until his 4th go as the starter at Age 30 he even won a 2nd round game.

But OMG, the Blues traded Elliott. We are screwed with Allen - is such a ridiculous narrative when one considers all the facts, it's hard to believe anyone swallows the BS around it.

So let's see how many 2nd round games Allen wins by Age 30 (Elliott's was 0 at age 29) before throwing him under the bus based on the contract - which, as I brought up before - is actually fitting in both term and salary for what he's providing this team. Why term? Husso, at best, will be ready in the 2nd to last year of the contract. That's your argument, that it should have been a bridge to Husso. While it isn't a bridge deal, the length is pretty much exactly right for a bridge to Husso. Assuming Allen doesn't improve and force Husso to fight for the job. Financially, he's being paid what goalies at his age tend to make when they are 50+ game quality starters.

[glen a richter]

Let's not lose sight of the fact that not a single goalie in the history of the St. Louis Blues organization has ever led their team to the Cup. None, nada. Aside from the first three seasons where someone from the expansion 6 had to be represented in the finals, the furthest we've ever gotten in the playoffs was a platoon effort in '86, Roman Turek in 2001 and then Elliott (for the most part) in 2016. Not overly comforting knowing that, ultimately, our most successful goaltending has been that.

[Toasted Oates]

Let's not lose sight of the fact that not a single goalie in the history of the St. Louis Blues organization has ever led their team to the Cup. None, nada. Aside from the first three seasons where someone from the expansion 6 had to be represented in the finals, the furthest we've ever gotten in the playoffs was a platoon effort in '86, Roman Turek in 2001 and then Elliott (for the most part) in 2016. Not overly comforting knowing that, ultimately, our most successful goaltending has been that.

To magnify this point: right now Allen sits at 83 career wins, all with the Blues of course. Liut is the Blues' all time leader with 151, CuJo is 2nd with 137, Fuhr 3rd with 108. Allen will likely pass Fuhr on that list next year if he stays healthy. 2017-18 will be his 5th NHL season, not all of them as the starter. "Not overly comforting" indeed.

[theohall]

Interesting fact: In 1980-81 Liut finished 2nd in Hart Trophy voting to Gretzky, but wasn't the best goaltender statistically that season. Mario Lessard of the Kings had 2 more wins and a lower GAA, but finished 11th in Hart Trophy voting thanks to Marcel Dionne drawing 3rd. Liut only missed winning the Hart Trophy over Gretzky by 6 votes (5 votes would have been a tie).

Liut - yet another goaltender who lost his first series in the playoffs as the starter - swept 0-3. If one counts his WHA days (season immediately before joining the Blues), it's his first two playoff series and he was 0-6 - swept in both of them. But Jake Allen supposedly won't be able to overcome losing his first series in the playoffs as the starter.

[Kerfuffle]

Let's not lose sight of the fact that not a single goalie in the history of the St. Louis Blues organization has ever led their team to the Cup. None, nada. Aside from the first three seasons where someone from the expansion 6 had to be represented in the finals, the furthest we've ever gotten in the playoffs was a platoon effort in '86, Roman Turek in 2001 and then Elliott (for the most part) in 2016. Not overly comforting knowing that, ultimately, our most successful goaltending has been that.

Glen in all fairness I used to think the same about my Blackhawks - if only we had a better goaltender (I always wanted a Patrick Roy-type) in goal we could win - that we just never had the right goaltender. I've changed my opinion on that with our 3 cups cause neither Neimi in 2010 nor Crawford in 2013 and 2015 were ever an elite goalie. Rather they were just 'good enough' and I believe that's all that's needed to win in goal. The key is the defensemen and the forwards backchecking - it took me a long time to see that's what was won our cups and not who we had in net. Having said that I don't believe Allen is good enough at this point but also I have not seen the Blues forwards come to help out enough on the backcheck this year. There was a different chemistry last year on the Blues and the team played really well - they helped Elliot out with stellar defense from both the blueliners and forwards were there mucking up the middle of the ice and causing us problems. Our recent game at end of February I saw huge gaps of open space and openings for us to shoot that we didn't have last year.

[theohall]

The key is the defensemen and the forwards backchecking - it took me a long time to see that's what was won our cups and not who we had in net. Having said that I don't believe Allen is good enough at this point but also I have not seen the Blues forwards come to help out enough on the backcheck this year. There was a different chemistry last year on the Blues and the team played really well - they helped Elliot out with stellar defense from both the blueliners and forwards were there mucking up the middle of the ice and causing us problems. Our recent game at end of February I saw huge gaps of open space and openings for us to shoot that we didn't have last year.

This is exactly what the Blues problem was BEFORE Yeo took over. Since then, the Blues forwards have been outstanding in terms of defensive support. Under Hitchcock, the Blues wingers very rarely did any work below the top of the circles this season. They would float between the top of the circle and the blueline attempting to defend the points, which they did poorly. Under Yeo, they actually help below the circles to the point Blues defenseman are, again, like last season, leading rushes into the offensive zone, because a forward, often one of the wingers, helped out behind them. In the Kings game, Tarasenko wound up back-checking a Kings player right at the side of the Blues net in an even strength situation. That wasn't happening under Hitchcock this season. 15 of 18 games under Yeo the Blues have given up 2 goals or less. Allen has a .942 Save% since Feb 1st. Hot goaltending and strong defense, both of which the Blues have right now, can beat any team in the playoffs. If one wants to mention Allen's losses under Yeo, the Blues scored 7 goals in 5 games in those losses. What goaltender wins with that lack of offensive support?

The issue for the Blues now is scoring. Under Yeo, 2.11 even strength goals/game. 2.66 total goals/game. No Fabbri who was outstanding in the playoffs and there doesn't seem to be anyone on the roster to replace what Fabbri did last year. That's where the question mark lies. Can the Blues score enough to allow their strong defense and goaltending to win in the playoffs and can someone step up and perform beyond their current level like Fabbri?