An argument to assume Tarasenko is LTIR

[WaukeeBlues]

Hear me out.

Armstrong announced on August 26 that Tarasenko will undergo an additional shoulder surgery and will be re-evaluated in 5 months. That puts us at tentatively January 26, 2021 for re-evaluation.

This last season, Tank had shoulder surgery October 29, 2019. He was days away from getting back into the lineup when the season paused on March 11, 2020. Let's say he was four (4) days away from being back in the lineup to be conservative. That means from the day of surgery to being back in the lineup, Tarasenko was out 4.5 months total.

One of the main questions we all have as fans is "how significant is this injury"? Tarasenko himself indicated in his instagram post that it was more akin to a "clean up" surgery to fix something they found that was wrong or hadn't healed correctly (he didn't really say) than a 'new' problem or 're-injury' problem. Regardless, at a 5 month timeframe to re-evaluate, that actually EXCEEDS the total time he was out last year, had the season continued unabated. Therefore, regardless of the word speak from Tarasenko, we can assume this is a major surgery, his 3rd in 18 months.

As a final note, "re-evaluated" need not mean play. Maybe he heals faster (doubtful, in my opinion), but the far more likely scenario is that the Blues managements recognize this for what it is: a career threatening problem. We should all expect they will be crazy careful with Tarasenko and really put him through the ringer in practice before he gets back into an NHL game.

The last, and biggest, variable to throw in here is the NHL schedule for the 2020-2021 season. The last any of us heard, the NHL still wants to do an 82 game slate, with an estimated start date of December 1, 2020. I personally think this is a pipe dream but let's assume it happens. They would have to eat into June and probably wrap up in July of 2021 if that's the case and our start date is December 1.

If we knew ahead of time that this was a 48 game season or a 70 game season, whatever, I think it's a safe assumption Tarasenko will not be ready to play in any part of the NHL season in 2020-2021 and you assume you have that LTIR extra space to re-sign Pietrangelo. As it is, we don't know that, and it could be a full year. I still think you assume Tarasenko is out the whole regular season. Why?

The Blues can stagger close to the deadline without him and clear cap space then to bring him back into the fold if need be.

I think the variance on Tarasenko playing again is far more volatile than the variance of the NHL schedule. Put another way: I think it's a higher percentage chance Tank doesn't play this season than it is that he'll be healed and ready and regular season games are still going to be played when we need him.

I bet like hell Armstrong wishes he had a crystal ball and he knew exactly how long the NHL season was going to be in 2020-21. Regardless, I think you assume Tarasenko is out for the whole year, and if he isn't then you deal with it at that point and use his $7.5 cap hit towards Pietrangelo this offseason when you know you'll have it for at LEAST 3 months of the next NHL season.

Maybe this is a better way to put it: I'll be pissed if Pietrangelo walks for a difference of $1 million or $2 million AAV, and then 4 months into the season when Tarasenko's career is possibly over and he's still not playing and we have $4 million in extra cap space just sitting there watching Petro playing in a different jersey. We can make it work down the line if Tank comes back. If Petro is gone, he's gone.

[WaukeeBlues]

Not a half hour after I wrote this, ESPN came out with a full article on what 2020-2021 looks like. Nothing I read here changes my analysis I don't think. Other than team execs seem to agree 82 games is simply not going to happen.

ESPN Article]

[glen a richter]

I don't know, I mean this year was this year. It was weird, it was what it was. But they're effectively no longer defending champs and how long do you want to hold onto the past (and at what financial expense) when you can be looking forward to securing a good future.

Pietrangelo is (and/or was) an integral part of the team and yes, he captained them to the first ever Cup championship, but will his salary hamstring the team when it comes time to pay others? The club is hardly devoid of defensive depth plus we have the draft in October where I expect them to go D in the 1st round. Perunovich, Walman, Mikkola, Tucker, let's go get these kids in there and get the next party started.

[WaukeeBlues]

I don't know, I mean this year was this year. It was weird, it was what it was. But they're effectively no longer defending champs and how long do you want to hold onto the past (and at what financial expense) when you can be looking forward to securing a good future.

Pietrangelo is (and/or was) an integral part of the team and yes, he captained them to the first ever Cup championship, but will his salary hamstring the team when it comes time to pay others? The club is hardly devoid of defensive depth plus we have the draft in October where I expect them to go D in the 1st round. Perunovich, Walman, Mikkola, Tucker, let's go get these kids in there and get the next party started.

I get the sense that Petro is walking. Nothing tangible, just my spidey sense. Well, like I said in another post in another thread, there's a legitimate argument as well to just letting him go.

[glen a richter]

What I'd like to see, whether Pietrangelo comes back or not, and this depends on a lot of things: retiring which I fully expect, health and desire---I'd like to see Bouw stay with the club to work with the young D and get them off on the right foot/skate.

I do think also that they need to address RD in the draft. All the prospects I mentioned are LD which is something else to consider if they end up letting Pietrangelo walk.

[JCShutout]

I have a sneaking suspicion that tank will go in ltir, and with the Allen trade, that gets petro in. I can’t play around with cap friendly atm, but tank plus allen minus $1.5m for replacements should get the blues pretty close to where they need to be if they want petro

[theohall]

Blues cap space after the Allen Trade per CapFriendly:
$6,397,501

So were Tank to be out for the season on LTIR (7.5M AAV), yes, they could comfortably re-sign Pietrangelo and Dunn.

Still have to account for a backup goalie - whomever it will be.