Backes emotional interview

[Kerfuffle]

Troy Brouwer's numbers will not go up. What he gave the Blues this year was best case scenario so be careful in wanting to "do what we can to keep him."

Agreed. He's a nice pickup but he's playing for a contract and his numbers will return to normal next year most likely. He was never some super stud with us and was an afterthought in our 09-10 campaign. He's a nice pickup for a 3rd line but he's definitely a #7-#12 forward.

[glen a richter]

A wicked line would be Tarasenko/Fabbri/Schwartz. I get that Lehtera has chemistry with Tarasenko from the past, but he's no top line center. No way, no how. You put together 91-15-17 as your top line and you see a bump in production from all of them.

I like Brodziak as a guy to keep around for an extra body from time to time, but I still maintain that if we want to be successful long term, and deeper in the playoffs regularly, we need a more offensively productive 4th line that can play 10 minutes a night, not sludge that averages 6 minutes a night and a guarantee that we won't be scoring in those 6 minutes. Upshall was good but seriously from that list of guys we need to re-up, I'd keep the obvious candidates: Schwartz, Backes, Brodziak and maybe Brouwer. Everyone else I'm going to free agency or the farm. Barbashev, Rattie, I've already mentioned Maceachern and Musil. Besides getting more scoring from the 4th line, the 1-3 doing have to log extra minutes which accumulate over the season.

Looking at some of the available free agents and some needs I personally think need to be addressed, I'm investigating David Schlemko. Left handed shot to spell Edmundson, if necessary, and keep Shatty on the right side when Edmundson isn't playing. You want to mercifully not bring back Ott and his ludicrous salary, any slew of FA wingers can replace him for a lot cheaper, if the intent isn't to go with someone already in the system. Parenteau in Toronto, more production, less salary. That's my two FA targets. I don't think they need to go after the big fish but they do need to address a couple of bit areas that make a difference in the big picture.

[Toasted Oates]

Troy Brouwer's numbers will not go up. What he gave the Blues this year was best case scenario so be careful in wanting to "do what we can to keep him."

Agreed. He's a nice pickup but he's playing for a contract and his numbers will return to normal next year most likely. He was never some super stud with us and was an afterthought in our 09-10 campaign. He's a nice pickup for a 3rd line but he's definitely a #7-#12 forward.

Yep, I'm with ya. Plus, he took some frustration penalties early in the WCF, but the idiotic one he took last night in a 1-0 game really soured me on this guy.

Oakland--the Sharks shook up their roster and made a coaching change. Those are chief reasons as to why they have made this run. Guys like Donskoi and Ward have been exactly what the dr ordered for them. Hertl was never part of the "old core." Thornton is still the de facto leader of that team. Their GM took his letter as a power, "look at me" sort of move. Whether him or Pavelski wears the "C" changes nothing, IMO.

Whether Backes is the captain or not matters little to me. Every good team has enough leadership to go around, no matter who wears the letters. Do I want him to stay? Sure, but it depends on the $$ and the quality of the roster with/without him. I will say, though, replacing David Backes' production will not be easy.

Tough, tough offseason for this front office. I don't envy them.

[elessar25]

Would the Oilers trade Nugent-Hopkins for Shattenkirk? He's a decently sized and talented Center.

If we get him, I'm thinking the lines could be:
1. Fabbri-Nugent Hopkins-Tarasenko
2. Steen-Stastny-Backes
3. Schwartz-Lehtera-Berglund
4. Upshall-Brodziak-Reaves
extras: Jaskin, Barbashev or Rattie

One more thing: Vladdy needs to work on a one-timer over the summer; his wrister has become way too predictable.

[glen a richter]

The Oilers would trade anything for a veteran d-man. It's THE area they're lacking sorely and all their skilled forwards are useless without a decent defense behind them.

However... this draft is real good up in the top 10. Let's say they do trade the #4 for Shattenkirk, 1 for 1 swap. Available at the #4 pick will be Dubois, Tkachuk, maybe Puljujarvi. Probably not Laine and definitely not Matthews. But, I'd be over the moon if they drafted any of those other three guys. Perfect fits who can step in now or season for a year and step in two years from now. But here's something else I'd be cool with:

Shattenkirk for the 4th
The 4th to Arizona for the 7th and the 20th (yeah, you probably need to throw in something else to sweeten that, how about the rights to Binnington). That gives you 7, 20 and I guess 28. All of a sudden this becomes possible:
Logan Brown, yes, please--huge center who can also play wing and is probably already NHL ready, Alex DeBrincat who can also play center and wing but will need to fill out his frame and won't be NHL ready for a few seasons, and then whomever they were planning to take with their own pick.

Stockpiling draft picks used to be the hallmark of a bad team trying to rebuild. But it can also be the hallmark of a team that's built so deeply that they can afford to move bodies for even more picks without sacrificing quality on the ice. Better to keep the pipeline filled and avoid ever having to rebuild. With what I see already on the team, in the system and the potential impact they can make in this draft, this team shouldn't have to rebuild for a long, long time.

Edit: Also, I would love to see Fabbri and Tarasenko on the same line. That's got Hull and Oates written all over it.

[WaukeeBlues]

http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams/STL?year=2017

Here's a breakdown.

Moving the millstone that is Jay Bouwmeester at 5.6M is critical IMHO. Lots of other talent behind him that are to be due (signficiant) raises in the next couple years.

If I'm reading this right the Blues have 15.7M to spend against the cap. They have to sign or replace:
Paajarvi (RFA)
Schwartz (RFA)
Backes (UFA)
Brodziak (UFA)
Brouwer (UFA)
Ott (UFA)
Upshall (UFA)

Sobotka if he comes back is under contract for 2.725M. Jaskin at 775K is also "inactive" in this analysis and would count against the 15.7M

It's gonna be interesting.

That's exactly right, it has to make sense.

If Backes wants $6+ there's no way the Blues can or should approach that kind of money, especially if it's anything beyond 2 seasons or so. Even his $4.5 wasn't a negligible hit to our cap space. Schwartz needs to be re-signed first and foremost. Shatty is due next offseason.

There's not enough money to go around.

This is also Backes' last payday of his professional hockey life. He's going to be looking, in all likelihood, to cash in. As well he should be. He's earned the right. The UFA market isn't exactly stocked full this year, and teams always overpay.

Backes has had a lot of long hard miles on that body with the way he's played the game. His playoff stats are performance this year is his meal ticket. The term and the money have to both make sense. If it doesn't, you have to let him go. It's the nature of the beast. And my gut tells me we've seen him play his last game in the bluenote, sad as that is.

[glen a richter]

In the salary cap era, you have to resign yourself to the fact that fan favorites won't necessarily spend their entire careers with the same team. It just is what it is. If Backes leaves, they'll find a replacement either via free agency or within the system, maybe a trade, who knows. The team will live. There's a solid foundation in place for the future that isn't dependent entirely on Backes being in the note. Will it be painful watching him skate for another team? Sure. Especially so if that team is Chicago, Nashville, Detroit, any of the usual enemies. Will it be the signal that a massive rebuild is happening? Heck no. We shouldn't have to worry about that for quite a while.

[elessar25]

No one has commented on my Nugent-Hopkins for Shattenkirk gander. Thoughts? Why trade him for a draft pick? We're not the 2015 Boston Bruins looking for some major overhauls and to load up the farm. We were in the final four! We just need a few bits to tinker around to make the overall system better. Kinda like Marian Hossa to the Hawks being the final piece.

Nugent-Hopkins's salary is $6 million. Delete Shatty and Ott and there's your $6 million.

A proven player who'd benefit from a change in scenery. Look at Justin Schultz on this year's Pens. He was a washout in Edmonton. Now he's playing a very important role.

[Kerfuffle]

No one has commented on my Nugent-Hopkins for Shattenkirk gander. Thoughts? Why trade him for a draft pick? We're not the 2015 Boston Bruins looking for some major overhauls and to load up the farm. We were in the final four! We just need a few bits to tinker around to make the overall system better. Kinda like Marian Hossa to the Hawks being the final piece.

Nugent-Hopkins's salary is $6 million. Delete Shatty and Ott and there's your $6 million.

A proven player who'd benefit from a change in scenery. Look at Justin Schultz on this year's Pens. He was a washout in Edmonton. Now he's playing a very important role.

Not an even swap - you'd have to give up a lot more than Shatty to get Nugent-Hopkins.

[elessar25]

I think you're underselling Shatty. Playoffs aside, he's one of the more premier offensive defensemen in the league.

[flyingnote38]

The Blues were able to end the "first round and out" narrative, but did they show sufficient "progress"? Falling 2 wins short of the Finals sure beats falling 2 wins short of round 2, but you could argue Elliott stole the Hawks series and Seguin's injury helped tip the Stars series our way. The last 5 periods of the Stars series, the Blues looked like legit cup contenders, but it takes more than 5 periods to win the cup. They still showed far too great a tendency to take shifts off, and periods, and games. This simply does not work in the playoffs. I think the "young core" can build on this year.


Going forward....

I figure Hitch returns.

The Blues have $58.2 M committed to next year's cap. They have all their D (actually 8 dmen) and both goalies signed for next season. Their only RFA worth mentioning is Schwartz and an injury marred season this year should keep his raise reasonable.


Steen, Berglund and Shattenkirk are in final contract years before UFA. Steen, Stastny, Berglund, and Bouw have no trade clauses.


UFAs:
Ott - for the love of God, please, gone!
Brouwer - would welcome him back but likely won't have the cap space
Upshall - worth keeping at the price
Brodziak - ditto or someone similar
Backes- here is the (first) big decision of the off season.


Backes is currently 32 which is the age at which offensive talent starts to go into decline. Therefore, the more you pay Backes and the longer the term, the greater the likelihood of it becoming a 'bad contract.' Talk during the season was of a Blues offer of $5+ mill per for 3 years. Didn't strike me as a great idea for a team likely to be struggling to stay below the cap; conversely, Backes allegedly considered it an 'insult.'

I suspect the Blues will likely re-sign him for $6+ and 4 or 5 years and I suspect in the long run we will regret this. It will however avoid other bad outcomes like Backes signing below market value with the Hawks because "he wants a chance to win the Cup." That sort of defection would incense the fans and crush the veteran core's fragile psyche.

So Backes and Schwartz likely eat the bulk of your free cap space. Any further additions would require cap neutral to cap reducing deals.

The goalies constitute a bargain and constitute a competitive advantage(Dallas would swap theirs for ours in a heartbeat).

Our top D pair has done a pretty solid job of making a case that they are overpaid. They are unlikely to be moved especially given Bouw's ntc. Shattenkirk's name was in the trade rumor sections all season. He appears the likeliest asset to be moved this offseason.

On offense, somewhat from cap necessity, further youth will likely be served. Jaskin, Rattie, MacEarchen, Barbashev, etc will get looks.

[cardsfan04]

JR thinks Schwartz is going to get at least $6MM. I was thinking more along the lines of $4.5MM. 2.7MM==>6MM after a season in which he missed a considerable amount of time with injury seems like a huge jump to me. I hope he's wrong.

[glen a richter]

I think you guys know I follow the prospects real closely. I was spot on about Parayko and I'm positive about Maceachern too. Whether he starts in Chicago or st. Louis, I see him as a great secondary scorer who will pot probably 15 a season. At worst, he'll be a better Berglund which is why I want to see him on the 3rd line and Berglund to move to the 4th. It instantly improves both lines productivity.

[glen a richter]

It's looking like Sobotka will probably be back.

As far as Lehtera, this team can easily live without him. If someone had to be thrown in to sweeten a trade, I'd offer him up. Dude isn't even close to 1st or 2nd line center material. Sobotka in, Lehtera out, I wouldn't be heartbroken about that.

[glen a richter]

http://www.stlouisgametime.com/2016/5/2 ... or-is-real

Agreed. Lehtera could be the worst contract on the team considering his role, productivity and current potential threat to retaining other areas of need. I expected a lot better, given his supposed amazing chemistry with Tarasenko. Give 91 an NHL caliber center, he maybe scores 50-60.

Any teams out there looking to reach the cap floor want Jori?

[Oaklandblue]

http://www.stlouisgametime.com/2016/5/2 ... or-is-real

Agreed. Lehtera could be the worst contract on the team considering his role, productivity and current potential threat to retaining other areas of need. I expected a lot better, given his supposed amazing chemistry with Tarasenko. Give 91 an NHL caliber center, he maybe scores 50-60.

Any teams out there looking to reach the cap floor want Jori?

He had a pretty bad year last year and I wouldn't read anything into it give the coach we have or the fact he's only been in the league for two years.

[StL Dan]

I'm just now watching some of Petro's post season comments (the pain is real).

https://www.nhl.com/blues/video/pietran ... c-44094703

2:53...."I'm gonna smash his (Backes) cell phone.".

[elessar25]

I kinda agree that Lehtera may be a tad overpaid, but he's shown enough passing skill for me to see his value. You guys also seem to forget that he scored two goals in the Sharks series, which matches Tarasenko and beats Stastny. Sobotka isn't nearly as talented as Lehtera. I agree that he's not a first line center a la Bergeron or Kopitar, but he's definitely 2nd line material.

[Toasted Oates]

^ I'd love for the guy to blow up as much as anyone, but let's face it: he had 34 points in 79 games. A lot of that time, he played on a line with a guy who potted 40 goals. What's that tell you?

Sure, he buried a couple in a series where the Blues were shut out twice. That's all well and good, but if a center who can only muster 34 points with a stud on his right wing is considered a 2nd liner....we've gotta raise our standards around here.

[glen a richter]

Fabbri, Backes and Stastny are all natural centers. Lehtera is a huge step behind all three, and all three would serve Tarasenko better in one way or another either by giving him great set ups or opening up shooting lanes for him. I'm a big proponent of Schwartz/Fabbri/Tarasenko because I think that line could just go nuts on a nightly basis. Lehtera, to me, is trade bait, a throw in, a guy that gets the salary even in a deal. He came for the chemistry with Tarasenko and that hasn't really manifested itself on the scoresheet.