The Offseason

[cprice12]

So now what?
The playoffs are all but out of reach now.

What do you guys want to see happen?

Who do we resign?
Who do we let walk?
What free agents do we target?
What will the goaltending look like next season?
Will Payne be retained as head coach?

List of available free agents...a lot of interesting names out there right now:
http://www.nhlnumbers.com/freeagents.php

The Blues UFA's and RFA's:
http://www.nhlnumbers.com/overview.php? ... eason=0910

[ViPeRx007]

Let all the UFA's walk; not sure about Mason or Carlo (though I see Carlo as being an odd man out with hopefully Pie and/or Junland ready to make the jump...maybe. Preferably they'd resign Carlo and trade Brewer and/or Jackman)

Resign Steen, Perron, EJ, Junland....dur.

Go hard after Kovalchuk. We desperately need the star power. Fill in the rest with players like Steen and we'd be in business; maybe these would come from the minors? I'm not sure who will be ready? Eller?

I'd give Payne a fresh season to work with. I thought he's done well with what he started with and deserves that.

[Nyghtewynd]

Again: if we think we're going to make a playoff run next year, we can't start the season with Payne. He has shown absolutely zilch since he's gotten here. Now maybe that's the fault of the current talent. Fine. Sign him to a two-year contract as one of the lowest-paid coaches in the league and let him learn. But keeping him is a sign that we're multiple years away. Again.

That said, I think it's way more important that we figure out whether JD has any clue what he's doing. The data's starting to suggest that he doesn't.

[DaDitka]

Let all the UFA's walk; not sure about Mason or Carlo (though I see Carlo as being an odd man out with hopefully Pie and/or Junland ready to make the jump...maybe. Preferably they'd resign Carlo and trade Brewer and/or Jackman)

Resign Steen, Perron, EJ, Junland....dur.

Go hard after Kovalchuk. We desperately need the star power..

So no to Mason and I realy want Carlo, but this is the way I see it.

Fill in the rest with players like Steen and we'd be in business; maybe these would come from the minors? I'm not sure who will be ready? Eller?

I haven't watched their games, but all I've read and looking at the stats.....you'll get nothing and like it.

I'd give Payne a fresh season to work with. I thought he's done well with what he started with and deserves that.

I'm still torn here. The team is scoring more under him and he's removed Brewer form the power play and given Backes an A, but this Mason thing (love affair)has got me baffled and two nights ago in his first game back Walt was rusty as hell and Payne had him out on the half boards on the PP.

I would have been great to enter this year with Payne as HC, but considering ticket increases and missing the playoffs, I'm not sure they can afford to roll the dice with him again next year. That said, if you bring in a solid #1 net minder and a top notch scoring threat.....it could work, the kids sure have played well under him and he's even made Paulie look under the age of 50 again.

[not_a_wings_fan]

So now what?
The playoffs are all but out of reach now.

What do you guys want to see happen?

Who do we resign?
Who do we let walk?
What free agents do we target?
What will the goaltending look like next season?
Will Payne be retained as head coach?

List of available free agents...a lot of interesting names out there right now:
http://www.nhlnumbers.com/freeagents.php

The Blues UFA's and RFA's:
http://www.nhlnumbers.com/overview.php? ... eason=0910

Linky

... seems like we already had this thread started, Curt.

Nice of you guys to finally figure out what I said a month ago.

[not_a_wings_fan]

Again: if we think we're going to make a playoff run next year, we can't start the season with Payne. He has shown absolutely zilch since he's gotten here. Now maybe that's the fault of the current talent. Fine. Sign him to a two-year contract as one of the lowest-paid coaches in the league and let him learn. But keeping him is a sign that we're multiple years away. Again.

That said, I think it's way more important that we figure out whether JD has any clue what he's doing. The data's starting to suggest that he doesn't.

I completely disagree. This team has played very well under payne... they have simply failed to convert the beautiful chances they create. I don't think firing the coach changes anything. The system they are playing is working really well, imo. They look so much better coming out of their zone, they are creating chances by the bucket full. They still have some work to do on understanding why they can't have three forwards and a defenseman down low ( ) and that will help stop the odd man rushes that have totally killed us.

I think we need a true #1 center, and a couple of bonafide top line wings - not a new coach. We don't have any elite scoring talent on this team - none. That game last night should have been a blow out - but at least three posts and missed open nets/not elevating the puck on the weak side tip in cost us dearly. Contrast that with Colorado who buried their sparse chances.

[Krigloch the Furious]

I dont have a problem with the coaching. It's the players that are sucking it up.

Boyes, Kariya, Jackman...
Brewer has actually been alot better under Payne.
Need more talent, less grinding

[philco_3]

Payne has been the turn point for the team this season. With out him I don't believe the team would be scoring, and hitting out there like they are doing it right now. Brewer hasn't been playing as bad, and Jackman, well Jackman is Jackman.

Let Walt, Kariya and Mason go. Resign Carlo, Steen, Perron, and EJ.

And this team has to go hard for Kovalchuk.

[WaukeeBlues]

#1- JD's gotta make a move. These negligable roster changes aren't getting it done (clearly). The kids are getting better and it's definitely exciting to see, but I would not be opposed to a decent shuffling this offseason. At all.

#2- Kovalchuk. Odd that no extension has been signed yet. Sign of things to come? If he makes it to UFA status that would be a small miracle in and of itself, let alone the Blues signing him. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't hesitate two seconds to drop one of those 12 year, $7 mill/cap hit $5 mill deals on him... I just don't think Kovy would want to come here. Patrik Marleau would be awesome.

#3- Goaltending. Nobody young(ish) is hitting UFA this year and I'm iffy on Mason. If the money is right I wouldn't be opposed to re-signing him. If not, it looks like the Blues got some options: My vote would be for Nabokov or possibly Toskala.

[not_a_wings_fan]

Patrik Marleau would be awesome..

Marleau would be complete fail unless you bring his current center with him. Marleau is good, but he's going to want #1 winger money after his recent play, and he's just not worth it. At all. No. I don't want him anywhere near this team. You think kariya and boyes have under performed on this team? Marleau would be an epic fail deal.

[Wulfen]

Coach: Sign Payne as the Head Coach. I like the fact that he is a rookie coach. Let him grow as a coach as the players grow so you have a familiarity between them.

Forwards: If Walt wants to play sign him 1 yr at 1.5 mil. Kariya Id resign for 1 yr at 2 mil, any more hes gone. Resign Steen, Perron and King. Say good by to Winchester, Armstrong, and Cam. Resign D'agostini for Peoria.

Defense: Resign EJ, Strachen, Junland and Weaver. Let Carlo and Sydor walk. Hope Pietrangelo is NHL ready.

Goal: Bit the bullet and let Mason walk.

FA signings:
Forwards: Prospal is the only UFA center that looks appealing. Backstrom from WAS and Pavelski from SJ are to RFAs to take a run at. LW Kovalchuk obviously but we cant afford. Frolov could be a solid UFA sign. Wolski and Moulson are RFAs. RW Stempniak is UFA, Wheeler and Ryan RFAs

Defense: I think we are good. But wouldnt mind seeing Joe Corvo come to town.

goal: Halak and Harding are RFAs so a sign and trade could be worked out.

[TheoSqua]

That said, I think it's way more important that we figure out whether JD has any clue what he's doing. The data's starting to suggest that he doesn't.

I just don't understand the criticism for JD. He hasn't even been here for three years and the team has been in competition for a playoff spot all three years in one of the most competitive environments the nhl has basically ever seen.

This year 13 teams are within 10 points of a playoff spot, last season it was 12 (14 teams were in it 'till the end), season before that 14 teams were within 11 points. The league isn't like years past when there would be a 10-15 point gap between the 7 and 8 spots and there would be five bad teams you could beat up on.

On top of that, JD didn't take over a team like Colorado that had a lot of talent that could quickly rebound, he took over a team with little talent and no credibility. In 3 seasons he's turned around the talent dramatically, given the Blues quality marketing and fan support, and for all the criticism he gets for the defense the Blues aren't in bad shape cap wise.

And paying Brewer/Jackman 9m/season isn't what's hurting this team. Look at Chicago, they're paying Campbell/Johnsson a combined 12million a season and are the best team in the league. Our veteran defensemen are valuable to have if they're supplemented with younger talent. The Blues have that in Johnson/Polak/Pietrangelo/Junland etc., it's just taking time for them to develop.

As for big names like Kovalchuk, I just don't see the Blues developing to be the sort of team that is anchored around a big star. I see them more along the lines of Phoenix or Colorado, a couple strong offensive players surrounded by 3 lines that can all potentially score and solid defense/goaltending. You look at Phoenix, they've scored the same amount of goals as St. Louis this year, big difference is their goals allowed is 23 less than St. Louis. Phoenix is on pace for a 50 goal drop in goals allowed from last season and from what I can tell they haven't made many significant changes. A new coach, their goalie is playing lights out, and a new defenseman.

I'd try to get a solid goaltender, Mason just isn't consistent enough to merit full-time work. He constantly has games like last night where he'll let in two-three soft goals that just kill a young team like St. Louis. Maybe a trade for Josh Harding or signing Nabokov. I wouldn't mind Kariya being resigned if he'd take 2/m a season or less. I think you have to try to resign Steen, he's just been too good this year to not see what he can do. I wouldn't mind seeing some offensive depth player signed like Demitra/Jokinen that could push someone like Crombeen/Winchester off the team as well. Then call up Eller, work on a better approach to the Power Play, give Johnson/Polak the bulk of the defensive minutes, hope the kids grow into contributing more and get into the playoffs again next year.

[dmiles2186]

That said, I think it's way more important that we figure out whether JD has any clue what he's doing. The data's starting to suggest that he doesn't.

I just don't understand the criticism for JD. He hasn't even been here for three years and the team has been in competition for a playoff spot all three years in one of the most competitive environments the nhl has basically ever seen.

This year 13 teams are within 10 points of a playoff spot, last season it was 12 (14 teams were in it 'till the end), season before that 14 teams were within 11 points. The league isn't like years past when there would be a 10-15 point gap between the 7 and 8 spots and there would be five bad teams you could beat up on.

On top of that, JD didn't take over a team like Colorado that had a lot of talent that could quickly rebound, he took over a team with little talent and no credibility. In 3 seasons he's turned around the talent dramatically, given the Blues quality marketing and fan support, and for all the criticism he gets for the defense the Blues aren't in bad shape cap wise.

And paying Brewer/Jackman 9m/season isn't what's hurting this team. Look at Chicago, they're paying Campbell/Johnsson a combined 12million a season and are the best team in the league. Our veteran defensemen are valuable to have if they're supplemented with younger talent. The Blues have that in Johnson/Polak/Pietrangelo/Junland etc., it's just taking time for them to develop.

As for big names like Kovalchuk, I just don't see the Blues developing to be the sort of team that is anchored around a big star. I see them more along the lines of Phoenix or Colorado, a couple strong offensive players surrounded by 3 lines that can all potentially score and solid defense/goaltending. You look at Phoenix, they've scored the same amount of goals as St. Louis this year, big difference is their goals allowed is 23 less than St. Louis. Phoenix is on pace for a 50 goal drop in goals allowed from last season and from what I can tell they haven't made many significant changes. A new coach, their goalie is playing lights out, and a new defenseman.

I'd try to get a solid goaltender, Mason just isn't consistent enough to merit full-time work. He constantly has games like last night where he'll let in two-three soft goals that just kill a young team like St. Louis. Maybe a trade for Josh Harding or signing Nabokov. I wouldn't mind Kariya being resigned if he'd take 2/m a season or less. I think you have to try to resign Steen, he's just been too good this year to not see what he can do. I wouldn't mind seeing some offensive depth player signed like Demitra/Jokinen that could push someone like Crombeen/Winchester off the team as well. Then call up Eller, work on a better approach to the Power Play, give Johnson/Polak the bulk of the defensive minutes, hope the kids grow into contributing more and get into the playoffs again next year.

A-effing-men to every single word. People calling for JD's head---I just find it ridiculous (no offense Nyghtewynd). This team was a mess. This turnaround job he's done has taken much quicker than most. Sure, they aren't a Cup contender, but teams like the Blackhawks and the Coyotes, etc. were terrible for YEARS, really for the better part of a decade. This allowed them to accumulate the talent that eventually turned (the Blackhawks at least) into bona-fide contenders.

The Blues have only picked in the top 10 a few times. Most of their young players (Oshie, Berglund, Perron, Polak, etc) were drafted in the late first round, and in Polak's case, later on in the draft. These guys were not top level talents when drafted. They were players with raw ability that needed time to blossom. People forget this. They assume that as soon as they make the league, BOOM, they should be up there with the Pat Kane's and the Steve Stamkos' of the world.

People also forget, in regards to JD, that a lot of the things they are doing are part of an overall plan that he, Pleau and Checketts came up with. The ticket prices being raised? That was in the plan. When they took the team over, they said they were going to gut prices before eventually raising them so they can eventually break even (which they did after the playoffs last year) on the purchase of the team. They also said that they wanted to build from within, making smart trades, pick ups and draft choices before making a run at an elite player (possibly this summer?). Why people forget all of this, I'm not sure. It's all there in print, in black and white. They've said it in the papers, on TV, at fan events...they've asked us to remain patient and most of us have. This team, in my opinion, is a fresh facelift away from being a contender.

They don't need an overhaul, they just need to get rid of a few unproductive veterans, keep the young core intact, and then bring in an elite or close-to-elite player who can score. Or, they need to sign a top 10 goalie who can be counted on to steal games. They'll have some open cap space, they've got a more appealing free agent location than they did when the McKee's of the world signed. It's only a matter of time.

[richtedm]

Couldn't agree more with the last two posts... took the words right out of my mouth. Its easy and understandable to lose patience as Blues fans (See: The History of the St. Louis Blues Franchise). But in this case I'm not ready to do it. If by next year they aren't legitimate playoff contenders then I will start to question it. But throwing out last years miraculous run to the playoffs, this is about where I expected the team would be when they started their rebuild. I am not saying I am happy being a team that finishes just out of the playoffs, but looking at what I see to be the big picture I can live with it.

I think the way the young players have ALL responded under Payne is a good sign. I am good with keeping Payne unless there is a candidate that is just CLEARLY better for the job.

[WaukeeBlues]

Couldn't agree more with the last two posts... took the words right out of my mouth.

Very good posts dmiles and TheoSqua

[TheoSqua]

As for wether or not Payne should come back next season, here's a bunch of stats comparing the team now vs when Murray was coaching:

Player - Goals Per Game / Points Per Game (Payne) - Goals Per Game / Points Per Game (Murray)
T.J. Oshie - .27/.79 - .19/.52 (+.08/+.27)
David Backes - .23/.77 - .23/.50 (+.01/+.27)
Alex Steen - .45/.83 - .27/.54 (+.18/+.29)
Patrik Berglund - .25/.43 - .18/.35 (+.07/+.08)
David Perron - .24/.52 - .28/.55 (-.03/-.03)
Paul Kariya - .28/.68 - .21/.5 (+.07/+.18)
Brad Boyes - .10/.34 - .23/.70 (-.12/-0.36)
Andy McDonald - .29/.68 - .34/.68 (-.06/0.0)
Kieth Tkachuk - .16/.26 - .24/.61 (-.08/-.34)

Record With Payne: 15 - 11 - 3 (1.13 Points Per Game... aka 93 point season)
Record With Murray: 17 - 17 - 6 (1.0 Points Per Game...aka 82 point season)
Goals Per Game - Payne: 2.89 (84) - Murray: 2.62(105) (+6 Goal Differential with Payne)
Goals Against Per Game: 2.68(78) - 2.88(115) (-10 Goal Differential with Murray)

So Payne has managed to increase production in four young players (Backes/Steen/Oshie/Berglund) while maintaining/increasing the production of Perron, Kariya & McDonald. The only drop in points has been Tkachuk (injury & reduced role) and Boyes (spending the bulk of time with Crombeen/Winchester)

I attribute a lot of that to just developing line consistency. And I'm giving Berglund an increase due to his recent performance, which shows he's being much better utilitzed and his confidence is growing because of it.

Offensively we're scoring .21 more goals per game, which is about 22 goals over an 82 game season, and giving up .2 goals less per game which is 17 goals less over the course of a season.

Reversing the Goals given/Goals allowed doesn't seem like a whole lot, but if this team were to have had Paynes stats all season our goal differential would currently be +15, good for 11th in the league. The 5 teams right now with a goal differential between +20 and +10 have an average of 85 points, so that slight difference is huge over the course of a full season.

Wether or not the slight increases in production by the Blues since Murray left is attributed to Payne being added or Murray being detracted is up to debate. Fact is, the players that this team needs to improve have been improving under Payne, and the stats support that this team would be in the top 8 if you project out Payne's games over a full season.

Payne may not be the best coach, but the Blues can definitely win under him.

[theohall]

Payne seems to understand offense and how to get the players to enter the zone properly, vice the mostly dump, chase, and forecheck boring offense seen under Murray.

I hate doing this but seeing a lot of Caps games due to being in VA, Payne has the Blues forwards doing the same thing I've seen the Caps doing all year. Spacing, spacing, spacing.

If the team enters the zone and spreads out, the defense has two options - go after the puck and defend the passing lane or defend the players. Both have rewards and risks for the defense, but it gives the offensive team more options than the dump and chase nonsense. Yes, dump and chase has it's place when good defense takes away the zone entry. But the Blues under Murray didn't seem to work enough on zone entry and control as they entered the zone. I've seen considerably more of this under Payne and the NHL rules changes the last few decade support this style of play more-so than the dump and chase style.

Give him another season and see what he can do with a team he's had a whole training camp to work with vice the 2 week Olympic break. The Blues looked like an offensive juggernaut after that break.

[Nyghtewynd]

John Davidson took over for the Blues on June 30, 2006.

Team results: I don't think we need to belabor this. Safe to say, the Blues have not won one playoff game under Davidson.

Drafts:
2007:
1st--Lars Ellar (still not in NHL)
David Perron (good pick, especially late in first round)
Simon Hjalmarsson (zilch), Aaron Palushaj (traded for a bit player), Brett Sonne (not in NHL), etc.

2008:
1st-- Alex Pietrangelo (two cups of coffee in NHL, mixed reviews in juniors)
Early for most of these guys, a couple (Anthony Nigro, for instance) showing potential, no one else in NHL.

2009:
1st--David Rundblad (no indication he's coming over, but it's early), still VERY early for most of these guys.

Result: If you're going to consider JD to be a good leader, you can't really use the draft. There's not enough data there, and what is there isn't exactly screaming "genius".

Signings:
Weight (OK)
Guerin (bust)
Hinote (blargh)
Brewer (blargh)
McClement (OK)
Rucinsky (blargh)
Legace (OK, being charitable)
Trade: Boyes for Wideman (pretty good)
Walt post-Atlanta (OK, again charitable)
Kariya (terrible)
Stempy (good at least for the time)
Trade: McDonald for Weight et. al (good)
Trade: Janssen for Salvador (lol)
Backes (good)
Winchester (blargh)
Weaver (...)
Strachan (OK, for money)
Crombeen (I guess you have to say OK for as much as he plays)
Trade: Steen/Cocacola for Stempy (good)
McDonald resign (blank)
Conklin (?)
Sydor (blargh)

Result: Again, maybe average. But the truth is that there's nothing there that screams "top-half administrator". Most of the high-money guys were busts.

So what is it that I'm missing? Does he get bonus points for fist-pumps?

[richtedm]

John Davidson took over for the Blues on June 30, 2006.

Team results: I don't think we need to belabor this. Safe to say, the Blues have not won one playoff game under Davidson.

Drafts:
2007:
1st--Lars Ellar (still not in NHL)
David Perron (good pick, especially late in first round)
Simon Hjalmarsson (zilch), Aaron Palushaj (traded for a bit player), Brett Sonne (not in NHL), etc.

2008:
1st-- Alex Pietrangelo (two cups of coffee in NHL, mixed reviews in juniors)
Early for most of these guys, a couple (Anthony Nigro, for instance) showing potential, no one else in NHL.

2009:
1st--David Rundblad (no indication he's coming over, but it's early), still VERY early for most of these guys.

Result: If you're going to consider JD to be a good leader, you can't really use the draft. There's not enough data there, and what is there isn't exactly screaming "genius".

Signings:
Weight (OK)
Guerin (bust)
Hinote (blargh)
Brewer (blargh)
McClement (OK)
Rucinsky (blargh)
Legace (OK, being charitable)
Trade: Boyes for Wideman (pretty good)
Walt post-Atlanta (OK, again charitable)
Kariya (terrible)
Stempy (good at least for the time)
Trade: McDonald for Weight et. al (good)
Trade: Janssen for Salvador (lol)
Backes (good)
Winchester (blargh)
Weaver (...)
Strachan (OK, for money)
Crombeen (I guess you have to say OK for as much as he plays)
Trade: Steen/Cocacola for Stempy (good)
McDonald resign (blank)
Conklin (?)
Sydor (blargh)

Result: Again, maybe average. But the truth is that there's nothing there that screams "top-half administrator". Most of the high-money guys were busts.

So what is it that I'm missing? Does he get bonus points for fist-pumps?

If the Blues had any semblance of talent when he took over... I would agree with your assessment. Face it, he took the most dog-shit time in the league and made it competitive.

Your view on the draft results is harsh considering they are still widely considered to have among the best prospects in the league, in large part due to those drafts. If he has done a ho-hum job, then NOBODY is doing well in the draft. And AP is STILL a young defenseman, not even old enough to play in the AHL. How can we judge him? He's still considered among the best of the best of the prospects still to come.

His free agent signings have been conservative in my opinion because this team doesn't need to break the bank right now. They aren't one or two smart FA's signings away from scaring the rest of the NHL. They are developing their prospects and signing guys here and there to remain competitive while they build the core from within.

Kariya was an exception to that so they could sell tickets.... though I DO think if he had been like the Kariya of old you would have seen them be more aggressive and hurry the thing along.

[TheoSqua]

You do realize that the NHL is not the NFL, right? In years past with the unbalanced schedule, rampant free agency, and a few solid drafts a team in the NFL could go from worst to first in a year or two, like Atlanta did the year before this one. In the NHL, that doesn't happen often and the teams that do, ala Colorado, generally have a superior talent base to start with.

For instance you list 3 drafts. I don't know how you can possibly call any of the drafts good or bad considering none of the players drafted have even attempted to play regularly in the NHL. You also fail to acknowledge draft position and strategy when you criticize how the Blues have drafted.

When St. Louis had the #1 pick there was no Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin available, not even a Stamokos/Kane. The Blues were unfortunate in that aspect, but still took the best player available in Erik Johnson. The team was even more unfortunate when he missed an entire year to a knee injury. Beyond that, the Blues have drafted lower in the first round. The closest they've been to a #1 pick was Pietrangelo, who was widely considered the most raw talented defenseman in the draft. It's why he fell to St. Louis in the #7 spot.

Also, the Blues have taken a long-term approach to drafting. A lot of our big prospects have been defensemen, they develop slowly. I applaud JD for allowing the best player in the draft to be taken when our spot was available, but now the team has to play the cards they've been dealt and work around players that are more raw and take longer to develop than other teams have had the opportunity with.

As for signing free agents, Kariya was not a bad signing. At the time he was great, and regardless of his performance since he was signed more to establish credibility than for talent, same for Jay McKee. Besides, who else should St. Louis have signed? High-end scoring talent rarely makes it to the free agent field. When it does, they're either grossly overpaid (Gaborik) or choose to go to teams that can win(Hossa), not rebuilding teams.

I just feel you have to take into consideration the circumstances that are in place when judging performance by someone in JD's position. It's easy to say "oh! he needs to go sign a top-notch lock-down goalie that will steal games for us!" but that's not exactly easy to do. There's only 10 top-10 goalies in the NHL, and there's 19 other teams looking for one besides St. Louis. The teams been trying to get a top-flight goalie for the better part of 20 years.

The things that JD can control he's done well with. He's taken advantage of trades that benefit the Blues (McDonald for Weight, Steen/Colaicovo for Stempniak, Tkachuck for rape in Atlanta), he's drafted the best players available which helps long term. He's established credbility for St. Louis, which should help when it comes to persuing free agents and has obviously helped restore faith in the fan base.

Yeah, it'd be nice if this team could magically become a presidents trophy contender and trade for Ovechkin/Luongo/Crosby/Malkin and dominate for 10 years. But just because you can force trades in your Be a GM mode doesn't mean JD can do the same. Rebuilding from the position that St. Louis was in takes more than a few years, and so far I feel that JD has done a very good job with the aspects of management they can control.