Blues rebuild revisited

[kodos]

http://www.stlouisgametime.com/2011/3/3 ... r-one-year

Dear St. Louis Blues.

This is an open letter to every player and member of the front office with the St. Louis Blues hockey organization. You have exactly one year.

On March 1, 2012, if this franchise is in a similar situation as this year, then we will be taking a no confidence vote in the ownership and leadership of this team. If you collectively fail that vote, be prepared for a barrage of immature, disgusting and tasteless actions to illustrate our displeasure. You may think we're bottom of the barrel now, wait until you see what we can really accomplish if we start trying.

Here's why we're doing this. When Erik Johnson was drafted with the No. 1-overall pick in the June 2006 NHL Draft, he was welcomed to the organization not by Bill Laurie, but, you, Dave Checketts, and your brand new team president, John Davidson. That will be five years ago at the end of this season. Five years seems like a decent measuring stick for judging whether or not a team can turn things around and be competitive. Plus, fans felt compelled to make excuses and give the team the benefit of the doubt several times, us included. We all know your ownership group bought a rusting hull of a franchise adrift in a sea of uncertainty and red ink. The roster had been gutted, fans stopped coming and caring. Trust me, it was dire that season, the first season of the Game Time print publication (Gallagher has an honorary doctorate in Timing, by the way). So the new owners got an automatic free pass for a while.

While the fans and the new ownership were on a honeymoon, some young kids got to play and develop, guys like David Backes, Jay McClement and Lee Stempniak. Later they were joined by Johnson, Patrik Berglund, T.J. Oshie and David Perron. With that many young guys, the future was bright, the potential intoxicating (the beer was intoxicating as well). You shocked hockey fans in 2008-09 by making the playoffs, but you bowed out without a win. That run was a house of cards. The goaltending wasn't solved. Bigger problems surfaced the next season that cost Andy Murray his job, but in turn the free pass was extended. This Davis Payne guy, he might be the one. But he can't undo the mess overnight. He's got to have a training camp and a full season. But. . . the team was still trying to find a new majority investor, so a trade for a goaltender and no free agent help is all that the front office could do during the summer. Free pass? Free, being the operative word with no money.

Now we get to this season. The team gets off to a franchise-best start. Hopes are high, expectations are higher. That free pass was about to expire. Then the injured list got really crowded in November and December. While fans tried to keep their cool, the team fell apart. You can't dissect this season without acknowledging that this roster could not keep itself afloat internally when adversity struck. The Blues were eliminated from the playoffs in December and January, not March or April. February was about waiting for the other shoe to drop, to see what the repercussions would be for failing. At least in my mind, time ran out. This rebuild had gone wrong, this core group of players was probably never going to make it. Either the leadership was wrong or the attitude was wrong or the mix of players was wrong. The bottom line, something was wrong.

Every Game Counts was the slogan for this year. So when the team didn't play that way-injuries or no-someone was going to pay the price. Those people are Erik Johnson, Jay McClement, Eric Brewer, Brad Boyes and Brad Winchester. But you know what? My response is to wish those guys good luck. Everyone left behind, you get one more free pass -- with an expiration date.

With the trades you made at the end of this season, you suddenly have some flexibility with some spare draft picks and about as much room under the salary cap anyone could imagine. This team is the waxy build-up just on top of the salary floor. You've clearly identified who the core of this team is right now. More young guys are going to get their shots. Doug Armstrong, you better not be done building this team. But you have one year, sir. This team did not go back to the drawing board. This is a retooling of the rebuild, not a demolition. Show us something, Blues players, coaches and front office, and we'll stick with you. Be back in this situation this time next year, we're talking mutiny.

You have been warned.

This sums up my feelings well.

[DaDitka]

The only part no one seems to get, they keep feeding you this line of crap and you've constantly still got sell outs, people defending Brewer, Jackman, Davidson...Yes, there is a core group of Blues fans that are pissed, but there are far more defending the team on Facebook, STL today, and worst of all....at the box office.

As a matter of fact, the team knows this, and that's why after consistently rebutting the claim of the money constants, Armstrong is now admitting it publicly. The organization is putting put there because the average casual fan (You know, the one in the Cam Janssen jersey-shirt) will feel empathy for the team and will continue to make excuses. They will continue to point at the youth. They will continue to buy tickets, buy beer, by merchandise, an cheer loudly when Cam misses a check, crashes into the boards, and makes a lot of noise.

Sadly, these dumbazz fans are the ones fuel the club and we true Hockey fans are powerless to stop them. Sure, eventually they will catch on and find some other fixation for their time and money, but until then, until the sell outs stop, the excuse making stops in the mainstream media, and even more importantly the ownership situation changes, don't expect anything to change.

Personally, I will continues to enjoy the growth I see in players like Berglund and Pietrangelo, I will look forward to what we can do with a full season of Stewart and a healthy Perron, and I will dream of making the playoffs next year, but that does not change the fact that Davidson has been an epic fail and this ownership as a whole is on the verge itself.

It is possible to declare this management group a failure without 'giving' up on your team. I do love the young talent we have, but there should be more and they should have done a better job of surrounding them with established players. Whether it's been bad decisions buy Pleau and Davidson or the monetary constraints that Armstrong now faces, this organization has failed us...the fans.

[cardsfan04]

The only part no one seems to get, they keep feeding you this line of crap and you've constantly still got sell outs, people defending Brewer, Jackman, Davidson...Yes, there is a core group of Blues fans that are pissed, but there are far more defending the team on Facebook, STL today, and worst of all....at the box office.

As a matter of fact, the team knows this, and that's why after consistently rebutting the claim of the money constants, Armstrong is now admitting it publicly. The organization is putting put there because the average casual fan (You know, the one in the Cam Janssen jersey-shirt) will feel empathy for the team and will continue to make excuses. They will continue to point at the youth. They will continue to buy tickets, buy beer, by merchandise, an cheer loudly when Cam misses a check, crashes into the boards, and makes a lot of noise.

Sadly, these dumbazz fans are the ones fuel the club and we true Hockey fans are powerless to stop them. Sure, eventually they will catch on and find some other fixation for their time and money, but until then, until the sell outs stop, the excuse making stops in the mainstream media, and even more importantly the ownership situation changes, don't expect anything to change.

Personally, I will continues to enjoy the growth I see in players like Berglund and Pietrangelo, I will look forward to what we can do with a full season of Stewart and a healthy Perron, and I will dream of making the playoffs next year, but that does not change the fact that Davidson has been an epic fail and this ownership as a whole is on the verge itself.

It is possible to declare this management group a failure without 'giving' up on your team. I do love the young talent we have, but there should be more and they should have done a better job of surrounding them with established players. Whether it's been bad decisions buy Pleau and Davidson or the monetary constraints that Armstrong now faces, this organization has failed us...the fans.

You make it sound like a bad thing for people to go to games. I went to 15-20 games this year, and I'm not going to apologize for it. While I don't have near the pessimism toward our management that you do, I don't go to games to show my satisfaction with the job they do. I go because it is fun, like most people do. If they give us a good game and lose, it's still fun, just disappointing too.

I'd much rather have a team where it sells out in good and bad times, than a team that has fair-weather fans (not that that's exactly what you're describing, but pretty close).

[DaDitka]

You make it sound like a bad thing for people to go to games. I went to 15-20 games this year, and I'm not going to apologize for it. .

Me too. I'll end up going to about the same 15 to 20 this year.

My point was that while many of us are upset, the team doesn't 'know' because what they are seeing is sellouts every night.

And think about it from an investors view..

You sold out almost every game and only spent 40 million out of pocket, now you want me to spend another 10 million out of pocket so that we 'may' have 2 - 6 more home games in the playoffs?

Not going to happen.

They will not start spending money until they quit making money. I do not expect people to stay away...I still go....I was just making a point.

All the money people see, that call the shots, are full seats, positive reinforcement on Facebook and STL Today, etc.

While I really - really like the piece above, I doubt it makes a blip in the organization's radar.

[DaDitka]

You make it sound like a bad thing for people to go to games. I went to 15-20 games this year, and I'm not going to apologize for it. .

Me too. I'll end up going to about the same 15 to 20 this year.

My point was that while many of us are upset, the team doesn't 'know' because what they are seeing is sellouts every night.

And think about it from an investors view..

You sold out almost every game and only spent 40 million out of pocket, now you want me to spend another 10 million out of pocket so that we 'may' have 2 - 6 more home games in the playoffs?

Not going to happen.

They will not start spending money until they quit making money. I do not expect people to stay away...I still go....I was just making a point.

All the money people see, that call the shots, are full seats, positive reinforcement on Facebook and STL Today, etc.

While I really - really like the piece above, I doubt it makes a blip in the organization's radar.

[big d note]

A lot can happen in two years, and I like what Armstrong is doing. Making those trades was not a restart, it was a retooling. Take a look at the roster of the Hawks from 07-08 (missed the playoffs) to 08-09 (made it to the 3rd round) to 09-10 (won the Cup). They kept the young core intact, but made some drastic changes around them, and they made a huge improvement in just two years. If the Blues can get the right investors in place and give management enough money to work with, they can do the same, and they'll be better off than the Cup-winning Hawks in terms of contracts based on where they are now near the salary floor.

Hawks core players from 07-08 through 09-10:
Patrick Kane
Patrick Sharp
Jonathan Toews
Dustin Byfuglien
Duncan Keith
Brent Seabrook

07-08 players that were gone by 09-10:
Nikolai Khabibulin
Patrick Lalime
Martin Havlat
Tuomo Ruutu
Robert Lang
James Wisniewski

Players added between 07-08 and 09-10:
Antti Niemi
Cristobal Huet
Marian Hossa
Kris Versteeg
Ben Eager (actually picked up late in 07-08 and played 9 games)
Brian Campbell

That's quite an overhaul in just 2 years, but the key is that they kept the young core intact. Those players were some of their top scorers and were huge in the playoffs. The biggest scorer that they brought in was Hossa, and he only had 3 goals in the playoffs in 09-10. This offseason will be so critical for the Blues. Can they add a player like Hossa? Can they get a veteran defenseman? I still think Halak was a great move, but who will be his backup if he falters or is injured? Will prospects like Tarasenko be able to step in and contribute? There is a lot for Armstrong to do, but it shouldn't take another 5 years of rebuilding to turn this into a great team.

[deadcanvas]

Don't forget we've got Tarasenko, Schwartz, Cole, Junland. And we're going to be adding quite a few 2nd/3rd rounders to that. Heard this years draft wasn't the best, but maybe we can find some luck and score us a solid second rounder like a stastny or something. I agree that this team should be able to be a playoff contender next year, but for now it's fine by me to tank the shit out of this team.

Fun fact. 5 out of the last 6 games that we've lost have been by one goal. For the remainder of the season, I'll take plenty of those.

[tjk002]

And we're going to be adding quite a few 2nd/3rd rounders to that. Heard this years draft wasn't the best, but maybe we can find some luck and score us a solid second rounder like a stastny or something. .

This is sarcastic right? You expect a 2nd/3rd round player to play on an NHL team in his first year? If that happens, the Blues are in alot worse shape than anyone here can comprehend.

[northwest dave]

You make it sound like a bad thing for people to go to games. I went to 15-20 games this year, and I'm not going to apologize for it. .

Me too. I'll end up going to about the same 15 to 20 this year.

My point was that while many of us are upset, the team doesn't 'know' because what they are seeing is sellouts every night.

And think about it from an investors view..

You sold out almost every game and only spent 40 million out of pocket, now you want me to spend another 10 million out of pocket so that we 'may' have 2 - 6 more home games in the playoffs?

Not going to happen.

They will not start spending money until they quit making money. I do not expect people to stay away...I still go....I was just making a point.

All the money people see, that call the shots, are full seats, positive reinforcement on Facebook and STL Today, etc.

While I really - really like the piece above, I doubt it makes a blip in the organization's radar.

I think the ownership realizes that not winning is not a sustainable business plan. Just a few years ago attendance was low and they had to build that trust. If the team doesn't win, the trust will vanish.

However, it would be nice if fans could somehow get their disapproval heard. In the past, this was done through the paper. Maybe a nice round of boos at the end of the game (like the '94 playoffs) would send a message. I don't know..I'm pissed too and I live 2000 miles away. But I'm tired of following this team that only disappoints.

[TheoSqua]

Yeah I think people have to remember that the bulk of young guys take a while to develop, and once they develop their peak isn't that great.

There are 14 players in the NHL right now that average one or more points per game with at least 50 points this season. And they break down like this:
Anaheim: 3
Tampa/Detroit/Chicago/Vancouver: 2
Dallas/Washington/Pittsburgh/: 1

So that means 24 teams currently don't have a PPG player on thier roster.


Now look at the ages of these players when they first hit a PPG status:
Crosby: 18 (1st season) (1st overall)
Daniel Sedin: 28 (6th season) (2nd overall)
Henrik Sedin: 28 (6th season) (3rd overall)
St. Louis: 28 (5th season) (undrafted)
Pavel Datsyuk: 27 (4th season) (6th round)
Brad Richards: 25 (5th season) (3rd round)
Jonathan Towes: 22 (4th season) (3rd overall)
Patrick Kane: 22 (3rd season) (1st overall)
Corey Perry: 25 (6th season) (28th overall)
Ryan Getzlaf: 22 (3rd season) (16th overall)
Teemuu Selanne: 22 (1st season) (10th overall)
Henrik Zetterberg: 25 (3rd season) (7th round)
Alex Ovechkin: 20 (1st season) (1st overall)

A few that consistently are in PPG status:
Dany Heatly: 23 (2nd season) (2nd overall)
Joe Thornton: 24 (6th season) (1st overall)
Ilya Kovalchuk: 20 (3rd season) (1st overall)
Jason Spezza: 22 (3rd season) (2nd overall)
Daniel Alfredsson: 27 (5th season) (6th round)
Jarome Iginla:24 (6th season) (11th overall)
Evgeni Malkin: 20 (1st season) (2nd overall)
Marian Hossa: 24 (6th season) (12th overall)
Marian Gaborik: 23 (5th season) (3rd overall)
Vincent Lecavalier: 26 (8th season) (1st overall)


And that's about it...24 players...If I keep going it's players like Patrik Elias and Alex Tanguay who are very good top3 forwards, but not PPG players.

You'll notice they go into two categories:
A top 3 pick: 14 of 24 (58%)
Took at least 5 seasons or their late 20s to become a ppg player: 11 of 24 (45.8%)

That leaves four players: Ryan Getzlaf, Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, and Teemu Selanne.

Only one team scouted Datsyuk (a second team, St. Louis, sent a scout to watch his team and the plane was cancelled due to a storm....go figure), period. And Zetterberg/Teemu fell due to signability concerns (similar to Tarasenko) .

So that leaves one player: Ryan Getzlaf. Out of the thousands of players drafted exactly ONE doesn't fall into one of those two/three categories. And even Getzlaf was taken 19th overall.

Number of top 3 picks we have: Zero
Number of developing players we have with at least 5 seasons: Zero

Point is the young players the Blues have just aren't far along enough yet in their development process to say they won't put it all together and become one of the top scorers in the league.

If they were talented enough to become a PPG player without lots of painful development they wouldn't have fallen as far into the later rounds as they did.

[gaijin]

...and once they develop their peak isn't that great.

This is my greatest fear about the Blues' future. For a number of years now, we've been tossing around the phrases "lots of young talent" and "once the young guys have another year to develop."

What happens when not a single one of our "young" players turns into a point-per-game player, like TheoSqua mentioned? What good is having a deep well of young talent when none of it turns out to be all that good?

I'll quit channeling kodos now.

[kodos]

I don't think any of our young guys will... except maybe Stewart.

I do think we are looking at having 4 or 5 young guys all capable of hitting 25/30 goals and 60/70 points though. If even half can maintain that peak with any consistancy we can be successful.

[JWatt (formerly PMS)]

07: 13th Lars Eller ok. Props for the Blues in not taking bust Angelo Esposito or the tragic Alexei Cherepanov. Dealt for Halak.

I just wanted to point out that we had the 9th overall pick and traded it to San Jose for picks and with that pick, they drafted Logan Couture (62gp/25g/19a/44pts). We traded a few of those picks back to move up a couple spots and pick Ian Cole. I would have rather had Couture than either Eller or Cole.

[flyingnote38]

07: 13th Lars Eller ok. Props for the Blues in not taking bust Angelo Esposito or the tragic Alexei Cherepanov. Dealt for Halak.

I just wanted to point out that we had the 9th overall pick and traded it to San Jose for picks and with that pick, they drafted Logan Couture (62gp/25g/19a/44pts). We traded a few of those picks back to move up a couple spots and pick Ian Cole. I would have rather had Couture than either Eller or Cole.

We made many deals in that first round. Here's the one you are citing:
Traded 2007 first round pick (#13-Lars Eller), 2007 second round pick (#44-Aaron Palushaj), 2008 third round pick (#87-Ian Schultz) to Blues for 2007 first round pick (#9-Logan Couture) on 2007-06-22

Pulashaj was dealt for D'Agostino. Conveniently, the Blues dealt Eller and Schultz for Halak. This makes your choice Couture or Halak and D'Agostino

Traded 2007 first round pick (#24-Mikael Backlund), 2007 third round pick (#70-John Negrin) to Flames for 2007 first round pick (#18-Ian Cole) on 2007-06-22

Hard to say. Not sold yet on Cole, but he's at least got some potential.

And the deadline deals that set this up.

Traded Keith Tkachuk to Thrashers for Glen Metropolit, 2007 first round pick (#24-Mikael Backlund), 2007 third round pick (#85-Brett Sonne), 2008 conditional first round pick (if Thrashers re-sign Tkachuk for 2007-08) (not exercised), 2008 second round pick (#33-Philip McRae) on 2007-02-25

So Tkachuk got us Cole and McRae.........and Tkachuk back.

Traded Bill Guerin to Sharks for Ville Nieminen, Jay Barriball, 2007 first round pick (#26-David Perron) on 2007-02-27

Guerin got us Perron.

[goon attack]

You act like there is a formula that, if followed, translates into a successful team. That is ludicrous. We've had some bad luck and some players who didn't pan out. BFD. 29 teams fail each and every season.

Blues fans are increasingly more bitch-like

[deadcanvas]

You act like there is a formula that, if followed, translates into a successful team. That is ludicrous. We've had some bad luck and some players who didn't pan out. BFD. 29 teams fail each and every season.

Blues fans are increasingly more bitch-like

Edit: The Blues are increasingly more bitch-like.

[WaukeeBlues]

Perron will get there. You can see it. I just pray this concussion or brain aneurysm or whatever the hell it is that happened to him this season doesn't de-rail him. I'm also real excited for Stewart too.

I gotta agree with gaijin, my fear is the exact same, that the young guys that we have our future invested in just simply will not be all we hope they will. So far though, not bad, not bad at all. Perron is going to be a beast, I'm fully confident of this. Oshie is a fan favorite and has tons of skill: hasn't translated into points per game and maybe never will but the guy can play. Berglund is getting there. I just hope he doesn't suffer from the Boyes virus and falls too far off the confidence wagon.

And if EJ develops into a stud in Colorado... well then he does. Management here didn't think he would or maybe more appropriately, saw an opportunity to get a guy that simply do NOT come around all that often (Stewart) for a commodity that is easier to replace. We'll see about Shattenkirk.

I'm kind of at a loss about this season. As always, high expectations but this time it wasn't unrealistically so. Things were falling into place, this was really supposed to be when things came together. The problem we banked on the young kids bouncing back and picking up the slack they showed last season. They either didn't or got hurt while trying and the depth wasn't there to compensate, if you want my opinion of it.

Coach Payne has said often that they don't want to make Perron and Oshie being out for a lot of the year being an excuse but I mean come on! With McDonald, you're talking about your entire top line (essentially) not playing. NO team shrugs that off. It doesn't happen.

As for the epic fail that has been going on in the last 7 of 8... I'm at a loss. Goaltending? Guys not jelling? Eveyone just giving up? Could be a combination and from Payne's comments after today's Isles loss, it seems more like a variety of things than anything singular. Hopefully the Blues end the season with something to make us optimistic for next season. SOMETHING. As always, I'm excited for this team, but terribly bummed out about this year

And seriously contemplating re-selling my April 6 tix for the Blues/Hawks games @ the United Center

[goon attack]

You act like there is a formula that, if followed, translates into a successful team. That is ludicrous. We've had some bad luck and some players who didn't pan out. BFD. 29 teams fail each and every season.

Blues fans are increasingly more bitch-like

Edit: The Blues are increasingly more bitch-like.

they are indeed playing like a bunch of (Franking) pansies. is there any (Franking) leadership on this team or what? maybe a few of them need their asses kicked in the locker room

[not_a_wings_fan]

Just a quick note on perron - I am convinced the severity of the injury is related to how the Blues handled the situation on the night it happened. There is no way you are out cold on the ice and don't have a concussion. I don't care what tests a player passes in the locker room, when they are unresponsive for a noticeable amount of time, they are going to sit for the rest of the game. By playing the remainder of hte game, he very likely did additional damage and contributed to the trauma - the exact reason they won't let him play or work out now. Totally irresponsible imo, and grounds to fire a training/medical staff. (this does not apply to cam or king or guys who don't think much to start with, btw)

And our young guys will be who they are. I think this team is close to being competitive, but I will wait and see what the ownership does to improve the team in the off season.

[glen a richter]

Just a quick note on perron - I am convinced the severity of the injury is related to how the Blues handled the situation on the night it happened. There is no way you are out cold on the ice and don't have a concussion. I don't care what tests a player passes in the locker room, when they are unresponsive for a noticeable amount of time, they are going to sit for the rest of the game. By playing the remainder of hte game, he very likely did additional damage and contributed to the trauma - the exact reason they won't let him play or work out now. Totally irresponsible imo, and grounds to fire a training/medical staff. (this does not apply to cam or king or guys who don't think much to start with, btw)

And our young guys will be who they are. I think this team is close to being competitive, but I will wait and see what the ownership does to improve the team in the off season.

As soon as Perron went down, this team went down. The spiral of players falling apart that followed was icing on the cake, but even when all the rest of the major injuries returned, this team continued to suck, in spite of the moves that were made to supposedly improve the club. At the end of the day, it could actually be that Perron is the most important cog on this team.