Blues rebuild revisited

[flyingnote38]

Looking at the picks in the top two rounds from 04 to 08 and classifying them as great, ok, bad, bust or incomplete and assessing if they could reasonably have been better spent on another player.

Looking at 03 for example, Shawn Belle was a total bust. But it was mostly just a case of being a bad year to be picking 30th overall as pretty much everybody taken above Belle, except Hugh Jessiman, panned out, but of the next 20 taken after Belle only Loui Eriksson (3 picks later), Patrice Bergeron (15pl), Matt Carle (17pl) and Shea Weber (19pl) stand out as players you’d feel you missed out on.

The Blues then made a great pick getting Backes at 62nd, arguably the best player left on the board even in hindsight (and really the best counter argument would be Stempniak who was taken in the 5th by the Blues or a trio of 8th round dmen Enstrom Byfuglien, and O’Brien).

04: 17th Marek Schwarz bust. 5 of the next 6 players taken became solid NHLers with Zajac, Wolski and Mezeros the top options. Mike Green taken 12 picks later.

49th Carl Soderberg incomplete. Injury led trade hasty (and bad) trade for Toivonen. Currently plays in minors in Sweden. Not much followed him in the 2nd round though,
Basically just Booth (4pl), Dubinsky (11pl) and Krejci (14pl).

05: 24th Oshie great. Criticized at the draft by the ESPN commentators for passing on Cogliano, who went next to Edmonton, hindsight says the Blues took the right guy.

37th Scott Jackson bust. 7 of the next 8 made the NHL with homegrown Paul Stastny being the best and obvious choice among them.

06: 1st Johnson bad. The best in an off year for Dmen (the next D taken was Ty Wishart at 16th) 2 through 5 Staal, Toews, Backstrom, and Kessel all superior players.

25th Berglund great. Both new Blue Chris Stewart (18th) and Berglund rank among the 15 best players taken in the first round that year and in the next 20 picks after Berglund only Foligno, Neuwirth and Kulemin quality NHLers.

Unfortunately that group includes 31st Tomas Kana bust. But not much other than Neuwirth in the 10 picks following him.

07: 13th Lars Eller ok. Props for the Blues in not taking bust Angelo Esposito or the tragic Alexei Cherepanov. Dealt for Halak.

18th Ian Cole incomplete. Brief stints in NHL so far. May pan out. Limited times I’ve seen him play left me with concerns about his speed.

26th David Perron great. Hopefully will return from concussion. Thought to be a stretch at the time, Perron has proved Blues right. Only 4 players drafted after Perron have scored 10+ NHL goals 52nd Moller 12, 55th Galiardi 25, 61st Simmonds 34, and 129th Benn 35.

39th Simon Hjalmarsson incomplete. 3rd in scoring on his Swedish Elite league team.

44th Aaron Palushaj incomplete. Playing in AHL. Dealt for Matt D’Agostini.

08: 4th Alex Pietrangelo great.

33rd Phil McRae and 34th Jake Allen Both at AHL level and look like solid picks.


So basically three major missteps, taking Johnson over Toews, Jackson over Stastny, and drafting Marek Schwarz.

[cardsfan04]

Thanks for taking the time to write that up. Interesting to see our drafts compared to people selected shortly thereafter.

I would list Johnson as incomplete or OK though, not bad. Toews is a better player right now, and may have a better career. But, as defensemen generally take longer to develop, who could turn into a better NHL'r than Toews. And, Johnson was able to bring us Stewart and Shattenkirk. I never thought about it until this moment, so I could be convinced of my ignorance, but I think I would rather have Stewart and Shattenkirk than Toews.

One thing that could be used to criticize the Blues in terms of taking Johnson over Toews is that Toews played with Oshie at North Dakota, so they presumably would have had some chemistry together already.

[ohio BLUES]

Quality post by the new guy. I learned something.

And yes, EJ is not a "bust," but at this point it qualifies as an "unfortunate pick."

[dmiles2186]

5 years from now, if EJ is the best defensemen in the league, winning Norris trophies and has led the Avs to a Cup, everyone will be saying this is the worst deal EVAR and that the pick was a home run but the deal was turrible.

Not saying it will happen, but it can be kneejerk city as soon as a former Blue starts over performing or a current Blue starts under performing.

[theohall]

5 years from now, if EJ is the best defensemen in the league, winning Norris trophies and has led the Avs to a Cup, everyone will be saying this is the worst deal EVAR and that the pick was a home run but the deal was turrible.

Not saying it will happen, but it can be kneejerk city as soon as a former Blue starts over performing or a current Blue starts under performing.

That depends on if Chris Stewart becomes the Shanahan-like player he is expected to become. That alone would make the trade worth it, regardless of how Shattenkirk develops.

[flyingnote38]

Johnson is not a 'bad' player, but I think the pick was 'bad'. Toews has been the captain of a cup winning team and won the Conn Smythe, so Johnson has alot of catching up to do.

He may blossom offensively, but I don't see the tenacity (or meaness) that will turn him into a Pronger type player.

As for Dmen developing more slowly, in the season Pronger turned 23 (as Johnson will this season), he posted a +/- rating of +47.

I would agree that the deal for Stewart mitigates the initial mistake some.

Toews, McClement and a 1st or Stewart, Shattenkirk and a 2nd.

[theohall]

As for Dmen developing more slowly, in the season Pronger turned 23 (as Johnson will this season), he posted a +/- rating of +47.

When Pronger was 22 was the beginning of the breakout - 11G, 24A including 4 PPG and 11 PPA along with the 143 PIMs. I doubt we ever see a combination like that from Johnson. He just isn't mean enough.

[WaukeeBlues]

I know it's hindsight but I was even saying it at the time: Shoulda picked Toews.

Granted, a lot way made of the fact you pick the best player available. I get that. But in the exact same phrase- when you have a top overall pick- you're thinking about a need to have fulfilled right away because they are going to step in very soon. Granted, the 05-06 Blues needed everything. But offense was non-existent and everyone was getting traded or dropped with even a speck of offensive ability. We needed offense. Toews was having a great year in UND, that type of forward we needed to step in and get to work on our offense. My feelings at the time was that defense was secondary and we were better there than at forward and Toews was the one guy in the top 5 that most scouts were saying had those types of skills.

It is what it is. We drafted the basically unanimous choice for first overall and (for us) it didn't work out. We got essentially two very good players out of it, one of whom may posses the offensive prowess that Toews does. Hopefully next year some of the sting will be gone. But as far as this year goes, the long shot just got longer.

[fargoblues]

I know it's hindsight but I was even saying it at the time: Shoulda picked Toews.

Granted, a lot way made of the fact you pick the best player available. I get that. But in the exact same phrase- when you have a top overall pick- you're thinking about a need to have fulfilled right away because they are going to step in very soon. Granted, the 05-06 Blues needed everything. But offense was non-existent and everyone was getting traded or dropped with even a speck of offensive ability. We needed offense. Toews was having a great year in UND, that type of forward we needed to step in and get to work on our offense. My feelings at the time was that defense was secondary and we were better there than at forward and Toews was the one guy in the top 5 that most scouts were saying had those types of skills.

It is what it is. We drafted the basically unanimous choice for first overall and (for us) it didn't work out. We got essentially two very good players out of it, one of whom may posses the offensive prowess that Toews does. Hopefully next year some of the sting will be gone. But as far as this year goes, the long shot just got longer.

Food for thought: Oshie and Toews were on the same line at UND.

[purple_haze]

I know it's hindsight but I was even saying it at the time: Shoulda picked Toews.

Granted, a lot way made of the fact you pick the best player available. I get that. But in the exact same phrase- when you have a top overall pick- you're thinking about a need to have fulfilled right away because they are going to step in very soon. Granted, the 05-06 Blues needed everything. But offense was non-existent and everyone was getting traded or dropped with even a speck of offensive ability. We needed offense. Toews was having a great year in UND, that type of forward we needed to step in and get to work on our offense. My feelings at the time was that defense was secondary and we were better there than at forward and Toews was the one guy in the top 5 that most scouts were saying had those types of skills.

It is what it is. We drafted the basically unanimous choice for first overall and (for us) it didn't work out. We got essentially two very good players out of it, one of whom may posses the offensive prowess that Toews does. Hopefully next year some of the sting will be gone. But as far as this year goes, the long shot just got longer.

Food for thought: Oshie and Toews were on the same line at UND.

i wonder how different things would be if we had both those 2

[dmiles2186]

I know it's hindsight but I was even saying it at the time: Shoulda picked Toews.

Granted, a lot way made of the fact you pick the best player available. I get that. But in the exact same phrase- when you have a top overall pick- you're thinking about a need to have fulfilled right away because they are going to step in very soon. Granted, the 05-06 Blues needed everything. But offense was non-existent and everyone was getting traded or dropped with even a speck of offensive ability. We needed offense. Toews was having a great year in UND, that type of forward we needed to step in and get to work on our offense. My feelings at the time was that defense was secondary and we were better there than at forward and Toews was the one guy in the top 5 that most scouts were saying had those types of skills.

It is what it is. We drafted the basically unanimous choice for first overall and (for us) it didn't work out. We got essentially two very good players out of it, one of whom may posses the offensive prowess that Toews does. Hopefully next year some of the sting will be gone. But as far as this year goes, the long shot just got longer.

Food for thought: Oshie and Toews were on the same line at UND.

i wonder how different things would be if we had both those 2

Your avatar would not be possible.

[fargoblues]

I know it's hindsight but I was even saying it at the time: Shoulda picked Toews.

Granted, a lot way made of the fact you pick the best player available. I get that. But in the exact same phrase- when you have a top overall pick- you're thinking about a need to have fulfilled right away because they are going to step in very soon. Granted, the 05-06 Blues needed everything. But offense was non-existent and everyone was getting traded or dropped with even a speck of offensive ability. We needed offense. Toews was having a great year in UND, that type of forward we needed to step in and get to work on our offense. My feelings at the time was that defense was secondary and we were better there than at forward and Toews was the one guy in the top 5 that most scouts were saying had those types of skills.

It is what it is. We drafted the basically unanimous choice for first overall and (for us) it didn't work out. We got essentially two very good players out of it, one of whom may posses the offensive prowess that Toews does. Hopefully next year some of the sting will be gone. But as far as this year goes, the long shot just got longer.

Food for thought: Oshie and Toews were on the same line at UND.

i wonder how different things would be if we had both those 2

Your avatar would not be possible.

Actually, it would, you would just have to go back further into history. Captain America had some awesome battles with Oshie/Toews when in college at Minnesota State-Mankato.

[goon attack]

Pretty franking hilarious how he Hawks announcer spins the beatdown. Backes is "much bigger" than Toews?

1 inch and 10 pounds... yeah, okay....

[youtube][/youtube]

[The Bob Essensa Xperience]

So basically three major missteps, taking Johnson over Toews, Jackson over Stastny, and drafting Marek Schwarz.

This is a great post, and thanks so much for doing the research!

I think it's important to note, though, that JD didn't come until after the 06 draft and Armstrong until after the 08 draft, so if in revisiting the rebuild we mean to look at the current administrative staff, (Armstrong, JD) you can really only look at their first two drafts right now - both of which appear at this point to be wins. Going any further back is more looking into Jarmo and Larry, both of whom are now gone. The development of Tarasenko, Schwarz and Ponich (and Rundblad for pure "picking ability") will tell us a lot.

[flyingnote38]

Perhaps my last line made it look like I was being critical of the recent drafts. I actually think the overall draft record has been very good.

I would agree the last 2 years look even better.

[glen a richter]

07, Blues draft Brett Sonne 85th overall, Sonne is pedestrian through his first few seasons, then lights up the world with a 100 point campaign on the 59-9 Calgary Hitmen, coached by Dave Lowry. Lowry leaves to become an assistant w/ Calgary, Sonne joins Peoria. Hitmen drop to 52-17, Sonne drops to terrible, continues said drop this season.

Moral of the story: Dave Lowry would obviously be an offensive mind either as a head coach (Peoria) or assistant in St. Louis, or even a head coach in St. Louis. Pry him away from Calgary yesterday! It shouldn't be horribly difficult, it's not like he doesn't have ties to the Blues. Get him back together with Sonne and suddenly Sonne isn't a bust anymore.

[theohall]

07, Blues draft Brett Sonne 85th overall, Sonne is pedestrian through his first few seasons, then lights up the world with a 100 point campaign on the 59-9 Calgary Hitmen, coached by Dave Lowry. Lowry leaves to become an assistant w/ Calgary, Sonne joins Peoria. Hitmen drop to 52-17, Sonne drops to terrible, continues said drop this season.

Moral of the story: Dave Lowry would obviously be an offensive mind either as a head coach (Peoria) or assistant in St. Louis, or even a head coach in St. Louis. Pry him away from Calgary yesterday! It shouldn't be horribly difficult, it's not like he doesn't have ties to the Blues. Get him back together with Sonne and suddenly Sonne isn't a bust anymore.

That Hitmen team had 6 guys score more than 20 goals. Interestingly, only 4 of them have been drafted, and Sonne is the only one drafted before round 6. However, they had D prospects drafted in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd round from that team. Is Peoria getting 40+ goals per game from their defense? That Hitmen team had a 20 goal scorers playing D. Rare combination of talent wound up on that team and Lowry let it loose.

Kind of surprised Kyle Bortis hasn't been drafted.

While having Dave Lowry would be nice, Calgary is grooming him to be their future head coach. And we have Payne who I think is doing a fine job considering the limitations this team has faced due to injuries. Recent losses were mostly on goaltending - due to Halak being hurt - and the f'ed up scheduling.

[WestCoastWingsFan]

I said before the draft that year that the Blues should take Staal over EJ, and no one agreed with me.

[kodos]

I'd still have rather have EJ then Staal, so I still don't agree with you.

[DaDitka]

I'd still have rather have EJ then Staal, so I still don't agree with you.

I'd still rather have Stewart....oh wait.....we do