Central Division Playoff Watch

gaijin · Post by **gaijin** » Wed Apr 06, 2016 8:01 am

Great battles for position here in the Central with only a couple games left to play, and many different potential outcomes in the standings. Here's the way things currently stand as of Wednesday, 6 Apr:

1st: Dallas, 105 pts, 46 ROW, 2 games to play
2nd: St. Louis, 105 pts, 43 ROW, 2 games to play
3rd: Chicago, 101 pts, 46 ROW, 2 games to play
Nashville has locked up the 1st Wild Card spot and will play the 1st seed in the Pacific, Minnesota has locked up the 2nd Wild Card and will play the 1st seed in the Central. Neither team can change their positions before the season ends, win or lose.

First, if things stay in this current order, Dallas faces Minnesota, St. Louis (with home ice) faces Chicago in Round 1.

Next, the unlikely- Chicago can still win the Division, provided they win both remaining games (at least 1 in regulation or overtime) and both Dallas AND St. Louis lose both their remaining games. As we play Chicago tomorrow and finish the season against the President's Trophy winner, this scenario is not impossible from the Blues' perspective (especially as Chicago plays Columbus for their final game). However, Dallas plays Colorado and Nashville (both in Dallas), and is extremely likely to get at least one point out of those games.

For Chicago to pass St. Louis and get home ice for Round 1, they must win both against the Blues tomorrow (in regulation) and Columbus on Saturday. If the Blues get at least 1 point from either of the last two games, Chicago remains in 3rd place.

For St. Louis to win the Central, we need help from Dallas. They hold the tiebreaker (ROW), so the Blues have to outright beat them in points. St. Louis has the more difficult schedule, playing Chicago and Washington, both good teams. Dallas plays Colorado and Nashville, not bad teams, but a non-playoff team and a Wild Card.

So, take from it what you will. All three teams (Dallas, St. Louis, Chicago) play tomorrow, so that may be the most critical night in determining playoff position. Unless, of course, Dallas loses and Chicago beats the Blues. That would leave Dallas with 105, St. Louis with 105, Chicago with 103 with one game to play.

Good stuff!

dmiles2186 · Post by **dmiles2186** » Wed Apr 06, 2016 11:02 am

Tomorrow and Saturday feels like the last match day in the EPL. All teams are going to be playing around similar times and the scoreboard watching will be entertaining. Granted, the Blues/Hawks play each other tomorrow, but you catch my drift. It's insane the number of scenarios that can shake out.

Kerfuffle · Post by **Kerfuffle** » Wed Apr 06, 2016 2:31 pm

Anaheim is still alive and could end up with 105 pts. I'm not sure who holds the tie breaker in that case on winning the conference. But if it is Anaheim that takes the conference and the Blues win the division then you guys would get either Nashville or San Jose. These are longshots but who knows.

Frusciante · Post by **Frusciante** » Wed Apr 06, 2016 3:26 pm

Kerfuffle wrote:Anaheim is still alive and could end up with 105 pts. I'm not sure who holds the tie breaker in that case on winning the conference. But if it is Anaheim that takes the conference and the Blues win the division then you guys would get either Nashville or San Jose. These are longshots but who knows.

That would be impossible since the only way we could win the division is by assembling at least 106 points.

Toasted Oates · Post by **Toasted Oates** » Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:01 am

Frusciante wrote:
Kerfuffle wrote:Anaheim is still alive and could end up with 105 pts. I'm not sure who holds the tie breaker in that case on winning the conference. But if it is Anaheim that takes the conference and the Blues win the division then you guys would get either Nashville or San Jose. These are longshots but who knows.
That would be impossible since the only way we could win the division is by assembling at least 106 points.

Yep and San Jose can't be a wild card either. They're locked in a top 3 Pacific spot. It'll be either Chicago or Minnesota. Gaijin is on the money.

YouTube · Post by **cprice12** » Thu Apr 07, 2016 7:15 am

On KMOX this morning, during the sports at 7:45, they said if Dallas wins tonight they finish 1st.

That is 100% wrong.
2 games left for CHI, STL & DAL.
STL & DAL are tied at 105 pts...DAL holds the tiebreaker.
CHI is 4 pts. out and has the same ROW as DAL.

If DAL wins tonight...
- DAL clinches 1st if we lose in regulation to CHI.
- CHI is eliminated from contention for the division & conference crown

If STL gets 1pt. tonight...
- DAL can not clinch 1st tonight.
- CHI can not catch STL for 2nd place.

gaijin · Post by **gaijin** » Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:45 pm

So after tonight's results:

Chicago finishes 3rd in the Central and will play the 2nd place team.

St. Louis and Dallas are again tied for points, and 1st place comes down to the last game of the season for both teams.
-Dallas wins the Central (and plays Minnesota in Round 1) if they win their last game, period.
-St. Louis can win the Central with a win and a Dallas loss or OTL, or if St. Louis gets an OTL and Dallas loses in regulation.

If the Blues finish 1st: St. Louis vs. Minnesota, Dallas vs. Chicago
If the Blues finish 2nd: St. Louis vs. Chicago, Dallas vs. Minnesota

flyingnote38 · Post by **flyingnote38** » Sat Apr 09, 2016 10:34 am

I thought it was interesting that the first playoff position to be 'locked in' in the West was Nashville clinching the 7th seed. Seems to indicate a clear break point between the top 7 teams in the conference and the bottom 7 with the possibility of a 10 point gap between 7th and 8th place. Theoretically should make Minnesota the 'easy' first round opponent, but we all know how that worked out for us last season.

Looking at goal differential, Minn (+11) is more comparable to Nashville(+14) and they exist in a middle ground between the top six (ranging from +22 to +36) and the bottom six (from -22 on down).

Today's games are meaningless for both the Preds and Caps. Caps have to play a makeup game on Sunday as well. Stars playing for their first division title in a decade vs an unmotivated opponent. Blues need to be 1 point better than the Stars today to win the conference and the division. It would be interesting if both games go to shoot outs at the same time. ("the Stars have just lost in the shoot out, so we go to round 18 with Ryan Reaves with the chance to win and clinch the first seed...")

Looking at our two possible first round opponents:
Minnesota: no excuse not to win this one. period.

Chicago: currently both have gd +27. Rank #1 and #2 in team save percentage. Both among the league's best (at least of late) in special teams. Should be a very even series. Likely to come down to health, confidence, and fluky bounces.

thekortehaus · Post by **thekortehaus** » Sat Apr 09, 2016 1:02 pm

flyingnote38 wrote:Likely to come down to health, confidence, and fluky bounces.

And coaching. Shit.

gaijin · Post by **gaijin** » Sat Apr 09, 2016 9:48 pm

Dallas beats Nashville so our game against the Caps being moot and we can forget how badly we played.

Round 1
Dallas vs. Minnesota
St. Louis vs. Chicago

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Sun Apr 10, 2016 12:16 am

gaijin wrote:Dallas beats Nashville so our game against the Caps being moot and we can forget how badly we played.

Round 1
Dallas vs. Minnesota
St. Louis vs. Chicago

Dallas beat Nashville 3-2 on a Spezza natural hat trick with the 3rd goal coming with 1:00 left in the game. Really close to going to OT and the Blues would've been kicking themselves for that pitiful effort had Dallas not gotten the late game-winner or lost in OT/SO.

Let's Go Blues