Can Ovechkin realistically break Gretzky's goal record?

[xbleed83bluex]

Ovechkin currently has 525. Gretzky 894. He needs 370 more to break Gretzky's record. Ovy is only 30 so he has about another decade or so in him.

Hypothetically, *if* Ovy manages to have 50-goal seasons from this point forward (likely not going to happen) he would break Gretzy's record in 8 years, and be the same age as Gretzky when he retired.

If Ovy scores AT LEAST 40 goals from this point forward, He'd need to play 10 more seasons to get to 400 goals - and this is only factoring in if he *only* scored 40 - in many of those seasons he'd get between 40-50 (42,43,44 here and there) which would allow him to beat the record in 9 seasons.

Now if he pulls a Jagr/Chelios and plays until his early-to-mid-40s, he'd have a great chance of beating it, even if he's only nabbing 20+ goals toward the end of his career.

[theohall]

Ovechkin may retire whenever he wins a Cup. He has suggested during interviews the past couple of years his only reason for playing in the NHL currently is to win a Cup and once that's achieved he will likely retire. Can't remember one of the exact quotes, but a former teammate has mentioned Ovie could do with or without the game and be just fine, which doesn't seem to indicate the attitude of someone who will play into their 40s. He just doesn't "love" the game like others do.

[SteveO]

I think he COULD break it if he kept playing but I also don't think he will.

[goon attack]

I don't think he has any chance. His body is bound to start breaking down real soon. He's an aggressive player.

I predict he'll play another 5-7 tops, and averages 30 goals per season during that span.

[ecbm]

I don't think he has any chance. His body is bound to start breaking down real soon. He's an aggressive player.

I predict he'll play another 5-7 tops, and averages 30 goals per season during that span.

My thoughts precisely. He's going to need to seriously modify his playing style to stick around long enough. He's not going to do that. That he has any chance of it at all is impressive. Gretzky played in one of the most (the most?) wide-open eras in NHL history.