Let's Go Blues

I vote resign.

Yes, he will be expensive. Yes, letting him walk will free up cap space. Yes, we have several young depth that will last years to come for much cheaper.

This Blues team is no longer rebuilding. They are built. Given the Cup last year, and a President's Trophy contender this year, it's only downhill from here.

The point of prospects and young talent is not just for the financial incentive, but to see how they work out. They're a gamble. When they do, pay day and contract. When they don't, or a better offer comes along, trade and let walk.

Peitroangelo already worked out. Letting him walk reinforces the idea that we have equal or better waiting, for a cheaper mark on the salary cap. Unlike Dunn, or a fresh prospect, Peitroangelo is no longer a gamble: we know we can expect a consistent 10+ goals a season, many assists, he has the big body and long reach, and is instrumental to the Blues Power Play and the point. He's the franchise player you look for when you rebuild.

Pietrangelo is an instrumental part of the current Blue's success. He could very well be the nucleus holding the team together, along with some others. Letting him walk could derail the chemistry of the entire team.

And Pietrangelo's most productive goal seasons have been his previous 4 while still racking up the assists. He's still hot in his prime. He's on pace to get the most goals in a season this year. If we can sign him for another 4-5 years, that'd be great. However I don't think he'd take a contract like that. That puts him just short of retirement age when the contract expires; so he'd probably prefer a longer term one say 8 years which I'd be okay with. But Ideally, 4-6 would be great, that locks him up in his prime.

Now for the fanboy reason: If Pietrangelo stays with us another 5 years, at least, he will beat all defenseman in every category: games played, goals, assists, TIM, a record that will never been broken by another Blues defenseman in our lifetime.

Also:

I wouldn't even even-swap Pietroangelo with Karlsson. I think Pietro is the better overall player - at least with the Blues' system.

Karlsson makes $11.5 a year. That makes Pietro a significant steal for us right now considering Pietro is out-producing him, but we'll just say they're both relatively equal players this season.

But of course, there are exceptions. If Pietro commands more than $10 mil, don't do it. However, $10 for 1-2 seasons, yes. $10 mil for 5+, no.

I think around $9.5 mil for 4-6 years is a reasonable amount.

Trade Allen, re-sign Pietrangelo. The end. Unfortunately, that would mean going with a lesser backup on the cheap, which will cost some wins, but it solves any cap issues irt re-signing Pietrangelo and the 2020 RFAs, even though there aren't that many and they are all lower end in terms of salary, except for Dunn, who will get paid a little more, but not enough to worry about in terms of space.

With the way Allen is performing right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see him moved this season near the trade deadline.

theohall wrote:Trade Allen, re-sign Pietrangelo. The end. Unfortunately, that would mean going with a lesser backup on the cheap, which will cost some wins, but it solves any cap issues irt re-signing Pietrangelo and the 2020 RFAs, even though there aren't that many and they are all lower end in terms of salary, except for Dunn, who will get paid a little more, but not enough to worry about in terms of space.

With the way Allen is performing right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see him moved this season near the trade deadline.

I have no basis for this but I would think he would want the contract Josi got and nothing less, which is 8 years, $9.059 AAV. Longer than I would like but it's a fair number, especially considering how he's played this year and last. Trading Allen would get it done. Buying out Steen after this year would get it close (it'd free up $2.3, which would get the Blues to $8.8 for Pietro), as would trading or buying out Bozak. But there's also the matter of the Schenn and Faulk extensions kicking in.

IF the Blues keep Pietro I think 2 of those 3 are gone (Allen, Bozak, Steen), if not all 3. They're the heaviest contracts, all with 1 year left, all with significant benefit on a buyout even if a trade can't be orchestrated (Steen has a full NTC and Bozak partial).

We also thought Elliott and Hutton were “lesser backups” so I don’t really see dumping the Allen contract as a huge negative for the team.

What we’ve seen is Allen play like crap and also play very well. The difference was a coach with a good system. Any backup worthy of an NHL roster spot would probably do well enough and not cost what Jake costs. Hell even Ville Husso could be a viable #2.

As an aside, Hofer, whose taken over as the Team Canada goalie after their two supposed better goalies basically sucked in the 1st two games of the WJCs, has been tearing up the WHL this season. He was named Canada's player of the game in the Canada vs Germany game only surrendering 1 goal.

20 wins (1st)
1.81 GAA (1st)
.937 SV% (2nd)
4 shutouts (2nd)

So there is another goalie prospect on the way.

theohall wrote:Trade Allen, re-sign Pietrangelo. The end. Unfortunately, that would mean going with a lesser backup on the cheap, which will cost some wins, but it solves any cap issues irt re-signing Pietrangelo and the 2020 RFAs, even though there aren't that many and they are all lower end in terms of salary, except for Dunn, who will get paid a little more, but not enough to worry about in terms of space.

With the way Allen is performing right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see him moved this season near the trade deadline.

Well that would be an obvious choice but I assumed Allen had very little trade value after being the poor-performing backup to Binnington curing the cup year. The only reason he's even on the team now is due to his contract. No one wanted to pick up a $4.25 million poor performing backup goaltender at the time.

We were just forced to have an expensive backup goaltender (on the plus side, he's arguably the best backup goaltender in the league.) But even though he's been doing well this season, his salary might be too high for anyone to take him as a backup. He'd probably want to be a number 1 somewhere else. But the good thing is he has some trade value now.

It's easy to say get rid of the Steens, Browuers, Allens, and Bowmeesters. If we resign Pietrangelo, it may be at the disposal of one of our hot young fan favorite players, like Parayko, Blaise, Dunn, Thomas, Sanford.

Pietrangelo is a big tall defenseman and a 4th overall pick. Big defenseman are always drafted early. With the Blues being cup contenders now, they're not going to get those big defenseman. They're hard to come by. It's theoretically easy to replace a Dunn, not so easy to replace a Pietrangelo. While we have one we should hold on to him. Unless he requires some crazy deal like over $11.5 mil.

[quote}I have no basis for this but I would think he would want the contract Josi got and nothing less, which is 8 years, $9.059 AAV[/quote]

I would be 100% ok with this. This is reasonable.

I don't see Parayko or Thomas going anywhere. Parayko, for the reason you mentioned - big, tall, right shot defenseman which the Blues are only going to find by getting lucky later in the draft again. Thomas for obvious reasons. All the rest - Dunn, Blais, Sanford - replaceable. Heck, they are already proving Blais and Sanford can be replaced. Perunovich is a natural fit to replace Dunn if he leaves college this season. The only question mark is him being 2 inches shorter, which is a concern when it comes to what type of defenseman the Blues organization prefers. Perunovich makes up for that size with excellent skating which is what Reinke lacks and why Perunovich is more likely to make an NHL roster than Reinke.

I couldn’t give less of a flying eff if Sanford didn’t stay with the team. Dunn and Blais I’d like to see stick around.

As far as Allen’s trade value, it’s definitely up from where he was if they tried to move him in the offseason. Just kind of going off some wild guesses as to who might bite for him, I’m thinking a team like Columbus, Ottawa, Chicago if they were so inclined to trade with the enemy. How about Allen to Detroit for Fabbri?

At some point we will have cap problems, but hopefully its after our second or third cup.

You go hard for the guys who aren't easily replaced. Petro is one of those guys. His salary will hurt 4-5 years down the road, but he keeps the window open. You might lose a Dunn eventually, and he's good, but not all world. You also go hard to keep Parayko. If we resign Petro, I see us basically giving Allen away in the offseason. If he continues to play well, someone will take a late round pick flier on him as a starter. As a starter, his salary is reasonable. We're stuck with Steen and Bozak through the end of their contracts. No one wants to pay $5m+ and give up assets for those guys. I'd hate to buy Steen out, because then the cap hit, while smaller, is a second year.

If we can find a way to get through next year, then almost $17m comes off the books in Steen, Bozak, Gunny and Allen. Should be enough for raises for kids (Barbashev, Thomas and Kyrou) and Schwartz and Binner to get raises. The following year Perron is done and Parayko is up for a new deal. You probably lose a Sanfrod or someone(s) like that who is useful, but replaceable.

Then again, a lot can happen in a couple of years. Who saw the Faulk trade and extension coming?

I was thinking about this a lot while the forum was down... Mikkola. He’s doing pretty damn good and it looks to me like he might have nudged Gunnarsson out of the picture. If he can hang onto his spot in the lineup would it be far fetched to assume they may shop Carl for a pick or whatever and either not re-sign Bouw or he retires? The saved money more than pays for Pie.

Mikkola playing his way into the lineup was inevitable. Pie, Faulk, Parayko, Dunn, Mikkola and Bortuzzo as the top 6 doesn’t seem too bad to me.

Who is the #7 defenseman. The Blues always carry 7. None of the remaining defenseman in San Antonio are NHL level. Sure, fill-in for a game or 2, but not the carry 10-15 games when Bortuzzo is inevitably injured or someone to be even half as good as Parayko if he's out. I get it that Mikkola should stay, but I don't see sending Gunnarson away with his small salary as a solution to re-signing Petro.

Even still, just by not bringing back Bouw that should clear up the necessary money for Pie, wouldn't it?

Blues current estimated cap space for next season (without accounting for whatever cap increase happens)

7.2M. That number does not include bringing back Bouwmeester or Brouwer. Pietrangelo is the only UFA who should be re-signed. But there are the following RFAs: Dunn, Mikkola, De La Rose, MacEachern and Blais. So 7.2M for 6 players with one of them being Pietrangelo. If the cap goes up the minimum, it'd be about 9M.

theohall wrote:Blues current estimated cap space for next season (without accounting for whatever cap increase happens)

7.2M. That number does not include bringing back Bouwmeester or Brouwer. Pietrangelo is the only UFA who should be re-signed. But there are the following RFAs: Dunn, Mikkola, De La Rose, MacEachern and Blais. So 7.2M for 6 players with one of them being Pietrangelo. If the cap goes up the minimum, it'd be about 9M.

Dunn will cost a decent amount, but Mikkola, Mac and Blais won't and I could live without De La Rose.

We had Jeremy Rutherford on Lets Go Blues Radio last night...if you missed it, you should check it out.
We talked about his Yeo article a lot...and I also asked him about Petro and if he felt the Blues would be able to resign him.
He said he felt they would be able to, and that he'd sign in the $8.25M per range....and it might be an 8yr deal. He also said he could be 100% wrong about that...just speculation on his part.
Petro makes $6.5M per now.
I speculated before this season that I thought a $7.5 per, for 6 years would be a good deal for STL and I wouldn't value him at much more than that.
However...
I also said that if he turns in a Norris caliber season, his value would obviously go up...and he's currently doing that.
So... if the Blues want him at $7.5-$8+M per, I think they'll have to go 8 years on term. Having Schenn, Faulk & Petro on crazy long contracts that puts them in their late 30's at the end of them wouldn't be a good look in years 6, 7 & 8 of those contracts...but with the Blues Stanley Cup window being right now, to be able to afford the key components of this team and keep them together for hopefully multiple runs at Stanley Cups...that's the trade off. And I'm fine with that.
If Petro becomes a FA, I'm sure someone would give him $10M...but they couldn't give him the term we could. So that's the leverage we have.
I hope he signs here...and I hope it's at a dollar figure that doesn't tie our hands too much when it comes time to sign Thomas, Dunn, Parayko, Blais, Schwartz, etc...not that I expect all of those guys to resign here, but you know what I'm saying.

glen a richter wrote:I was thinking about this a lot while the forum was down... Mikkola. He’s doing pretty damn good and it looks to me like he might have nudged Gunnarsson out of the picture. If he can hang onto his spot in the lineup would it be far fetched to assume they may shop Carl for a pick or whatever and either not re-sign Bouw or he retires? The saved money more than pays for Pie.

Mikkola playing his way into the lineup was inevitable. Pie, Faulk, Parayko, Dunn, Mikkola and Bortuzzo as the top 6 doesn’t seem too bad to me.

Mikkola is working towards taking JayBo's spot next year imo. Unless Jay comes back at Gunnarson money, the Blues will likely (again, IMO) move on from Bou to better pay others.

Gunnarson, unlike when he was making almost double what he is now, is making a fine amount for what he provides when healthy. If you moved him, you'd lose a piece you know fits your system and really only save a million or possibly less. (his replacement would make at least $750k I'm guessing.)

Anyone have an idea what Dunn makes next year? Gunnarson money? (I hope but severely doubt) Sundqvist money? (I'm guessing is the neighborhood)

JCShutout wrote:

glen a richter wrote:I was thinking about this a lot while the forum was down... Mikkola. He’s doing pretty damn good and it looks to me like he might have nudged Gunnarsson out of the picture. If he can hang onto his spot in the lineup would it be far fetched to assume they may shop Carl for a pick or whatever and either not re-sign Bouw or he retires? The saved money more than pays for Pie.

Mikkola playing his way into the lineup was inevitable. Pie, Faulk, Parayko, Dunn, Mikkola and Bortuzzo as the top 6 doesn’t seem too bad to me.

Mikkola is working towards taking JayBo's spot next year imo. Unless Jay comes back at Gunnarson money, the Blues will likely (again, IMO) move on from Bou to better pay others.

Gunnarson, unlike when he was making almost double what he is now, is making a fine amount for what he provides when healthy. If you moved him, you'd lose a piece you know fits your system and really only save a million or possibly less. (his replacement would make at least $750k I'm guessing.)

Anyone have an idea what Dunn makes next year? Gunnarson money? (I hope but severely doubt) Sundqvist money? (I'm guessing is the neighborhood)

I hope he gets Gunnarson money. I think he's worth more though...probably in the $2.25M range.
Dunn is also tied with Steen for the team lead in +/-...which I'm sure is shocking to some.

That plus/minus thing is partially because Dunn is being protected. Fewest defensive zone starts from defenseman not named Pouliot, Mikkola, or Walman