Let's Go Blues

The draft is finally happening, tomorrow and Wednesday. Took long enough but I'm glad it's happening at last.

Assuming no further trades, the Blues are picking seven times, twice in the 3rd round and twice in the 5th, no 2nd rounder and no 6th rounder,.

I see areas of immediate organizational need as RHD, RHD and RHD. High upside scoring can also be addressed but LHD and G aren't major priorities. This team is swimming in LHD depth and between Husso, Fitzpatrick, Hofer, Ellis and Zherenko, I think that drafting any goalies would be creating an unnecessary log jam. So, without further adieu here's my carefully crafted mock draft which will probably go oh-for-seven in accuracy.

Round 1/Pick 26: Justin Barron (RHD)
Round 3/Pick 86: Simon Kubichek (RHD)
Round 3/Pick 87: Daniel Torgersson (RW)
Round 4/Pick 118: Igor Sokolov (LW)
Round 5/Pick 145: Jake Ratzlaff (RHD)
Round 5/Pick 149: Tyrel Bauer (RHD)
Round 7/Pick 202: Glebs Prohorenkovs (C)

Anything after round 1 is obviously a total crap shoot. Barron is intriguing at 26 if he's still on the board, he had a blood clot issue and missed some time but he's a well rounded prospect who only dropped because of that medical concern. He could drop way down so it's an issue of how his tests came back, is he healthy and do the Blues want to take a chance on a guy with a shaky possible condition?

The blues have tended to have "their guy" in mind when they're drafting in the first round and we've seen them shuffle around their draft place to get them (Bokk, Tage Thompson) so wouldn't shock me in the slightest to see the Blues move up a few spots and send one of those two 3rd round picks to whoever they're trading with.

I just want the Blues to get some more players in the pipeline. With the Faulk and O'Reilly (totally worth it) trades we've now lost some significant depth as far as prospects go. This draft is as good a time as any to start to right the ship.

I don't care who they take, I just don't want them to go "off the board" and pick some kid that was forecast to be picked in the mid to late 2nd round and then shocker he flops.

I could see dumping a pick as a means of trading a contract to get into a better cap situation. I'm not a fan of that idea. The pipeline is woefully thin on RHD and they need to address that.

Avs took Barron at 25 so my mock draft is shot. I'm switching my pick from Barron to Helge Grans, also a RHD. We'll know soon.

Jake Neighbours, LW. Well what the hell? I don't get not taking a RHD but ok.

glen a richter wrote: ↑

Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:13 pm

Jake Neighbours, LW. Well what the hell? I don't get not taking a RHD but ok.

He's something like Brayden Schenn, but needs to work on his skating. If he can improve it as much as David Backes did, this will be an excellent pick. If he doesn't improve it much, this will have been a mediocre pick, one that could have been better used.

Grans is still on the board and I wouldn't object to Army sending the two 3rd rounders to move back into the 2nd round and pick him... but he'll be gone early so that might not be enough.

After a night to sleep on it I'm still perplexed by the Neighbours pick, just too much uncertainty like Robb said about his skating and such to spend a first rounder when there was a guy sitting right there to address a clear organizational need. Maybe the plan is to have Neighbours ultimately replace Schwartz cheaply to make cap space for someone else later on, I don't know. What I do know is that every single top defensive prospect in the system is LH.

No matter I guess, they've found high quality defensemen later in the draft in the past, so hopefully day two yields a couple of high ceiling kids.

Leo Loof is baffling to me. He’s a fuggin LHD who’s suspect on his skills at actually playing D. Hey Army, RHD please.

picking defenseman in the first round is usually a bad idea

there are exceptions of course.

glen a richter wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:00 pm

Leo Loof is baffling to me. He’s a fuggin LHD who’s suspect on his skills at actually playing D. Hey Army, RHD please.

I think he's an excellent pick at 88! Lööf is tall (6:02), but light at 176 lb. But has lots of room to fill out. He's an excellent skater and moves the puck up ice very well. He's got great hockey sense. He's an excellent passer, and plays well in all 3 zones. When he fills out, and gets used to the added weight, he should be a solid defender who can help significantly on offence as well. Remember, there are less points scored in The SL than in North America(especially by defencemen), as they almost never award 2nd assists. As far as what I've read and seen, Lööf has good offensive skills.

The issue is there is an organizational need for RHD. A HUGE one.... especially if Petro walks.

I get the 1st rounder not necessarily being RHD, because 1st rounders should always be best player available.

After that - better start looking at needs and not wishes.

Who replaced Bill Armstrong? He was basically the Blues top scouting guy for the past decade.

At 163 The Blues take Will Cranley, a 6-4 Goalie who moves very well. Could become a steal after he fills out!

With pick 194 Blues pick Noah Beck, a 6 Ft 3 in. 195lb LD.

Obviously Army knows more than I do about how to build a hockey team but I’m so confused by this draft. Maybe these guys turn into bonafide stars or at least very good players at the NHL level but LHD is not an organizational need by any stretch and RHD is. Goalie is also not a organizational need. I was fully expecting a draft focused on RHD and secondary scoring with top 6 potential but man was I ever wrong. Unless Neighbours is going to replace Schwartz so they don’t have to pay him and Loof replaces god knows who for the same reason. But in the case of Loof let me introduce you to Perunovich, Tucker, Walman and Mikkola who are all much further along. How many freaking LHD do you need in the pipeline? They’re set for years on that side of the blue line.

glen a richter wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:53 pm

Obviously Army knows more than I do about how to build a hockey team but I’m so confused by this draft. Maybe these guys turn into bonafide stars or at least very good players at the NHL level but LHD is not an organizational need by any stretch and RHD is. Goalie is also not a organizational need. I was fully expecting a draft focused on RHD and secondary scoring with top 6 potential but man was I ever wrong. Unless Neighbours is going to replace Schwartz so they don’t have to pay him and Loof replaces god knows who for the same reason. But in the case of Loof let me introduce you to Perunovich, Tucker, Walman and Mikkola who are all much further along. How many freaking LHD do you need in the pipeline? They’re set for years on that side of the blue line.

Outside of the 1st round (and you can even argue the 2nd round) I basically don't put any stock in what positions these guys play. It's not the NFL or NBA draft obviously where any of these guys are going to be walking into the league when you're picking in rounds 3-7. I also wonder how many of these players that GM's pick they actually know a whole lot about? There's just so many players and not enough hours in the day I've always wondered that. I guess my point is that it basically doesn't matter: odds are we don't sign any of these guys to contracts anyway and their rights just lapse after 4 years anyhow. Maybe that's just me. But I get your point: at some level you at least want to have them in the pipeline at ALL to even have a CHANCE at one of them panning out. Free agency? ha

Rounds 3-7 and to some extent round 2 if you're in the latter half, is where scouts earn their money. Generally speaking the Blues have been abysmal in these later rounds. There's obvious exceptions: Parayko, Binnington, Blais.

Looking at the last 10 drafts, I pulled out some gems the Blues have grabbed in these later rounds. Stop me when I reach a FHOF'er...

2010: Max Gardiner, Jani Hakanpaa--both taken before Dallas took John Klingberg, and then Cody Beach who went a few picks later to the Blues not too long before Montreal took Brendan Gallagher and Stephan MacCaulay a handful of picks before Ottawa took Mark Stone--in the 6th round.

2011: Yannick Veilleaux who went two picks before Johnny Gaudreau in the 4th round and Niklas Lundstrom who went a handful of picks before Andrew Shaw. Teemu Eronen, a 7th round pick who went a handful of picks before Ondrej Palat.

2012: This was a good one, grabbing MacEachern and Parayko in the 3rd round. If you want to argue in favor of more goalie prospects in the system, Blues took Nick Walters towards the end of round 4 and the Jets took Connor Hellebuyck towards the beginning of round 5.

After that obviously the pickings get slim because these later round picks often don't pan out or just become bit pieces on teams or just haven't been polished enough to crack an NHL roster yet, but even if you get a bunch of guys who can be serviceable call ups for depth or hit on a diamond in the rough now and again--like the Blues admittedly have done--I'm sure the scouting department is doing their due diligence on most if not all of the prospects who are draft eligible. I doubt they're picking guys by throwing a dart at a list of names come the later rounds--that would be dereliction of duty for sure. I just have serious concerns as to why they didn't want to address the one glaring organizational need. Matthew Kessel, I think he's RHD which makes him the only one they took in this draft. Leo Loof and Noah Beck are both LHD and relegated to being stuck behind a number of guys who could stay with the team for a very long time.

Wheeler from The Athletic on the Blues' 2-7 rounds:

Dylan Peterson’s a worthwhile project whose tools grade out higher than his production does. I have no issues with that pick.

But none of the five picks that followed were ever in the conversation for my top-100 ranking. The Blues had the most perplexing draft of the weekend for me and if you came here expecting more on their choices, I’m sorry!

Anyone know how Arizona did.... Maybe Bill Armstrong kept all the good stuff to himself and snuck it out the door.

theohall wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 08, 2020 5:26 pm

Anyone know how Arizona did.... Maybe Bill Armstrong kept all the good stuff to himself and snuck it out the door.

Well there was technically some non-disclosure agreement or mandate when the Coyotes hired him that he couldn't participate or help with them in their draft.

Technically.

A built-in fail safe is that the Coyotes didn't draft until the 4th round: 111th overall was their first selection. Not sure how much good your "insider" would be at that point anyway.

WaukeeBlues wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:47 am

Wheeler from The Athletic on the Blues' 2-7 rounds:

Dylan Peterson’s a worthwhile project whose tools grade out higher than his production does. I have no issues with that pick.

But none of the five picks that followed were ever in the conversation for my top-100 ranking. The Blues had the most perplexing draft of the weekend for me and if you came here expecting more on their choices, I’m sorry!

This is pretty much what I've seen elsewhere:
Our first round pick rated as mid to late second rounder
our first third round pick a potential steal
not much enthusiasm for any of the others