Blues 2022 Off-Season Thread

[theohall]

Under Contract (years remaining on contract):

Forwards:
O'Reilly (1)
Tarasenko (1)
Schenn (6)
Buchnevich (3)
Saad (4)
Kyrou (1 RFA)
Thomas 1 (RFA)
Barbashev (1)
Walker (1) - Likely goes back to the AHL
Brown (1) - needs to seriously prove something or he's back in the AHL
Toropchenko (1)

Defense:
Krug (4)
Faulk (4)
Parayko (8)
Scandella (2)
Bortuzzo (2)

Free agents:
Perron UFA - expect to re-sign. No idea for how much though.
Bozak UFA (expect him to retire)
Leddy UFA
Rosen UFA (stays on AHL 2-way contract)
Mikkola RFA
Perunovich RFA

I see 8 forwards guaranteed NHL spots solely based on contracts with 9 likely taken since Perron almost definitely re-signs on a 2-year deal.

ROR-Saad-Perron
Thomas-Tarasenko-Buchnevich
Schenn-Kyrou-Barbashev

Toropchenko may have earned a spot, but he will have to earn it again next season, along with Neighbours, Brown, Walker, Bolduc, Joshua, MacEachern, and Kostin. Neal will probably be in camp also, but I don't expect him to make the team. He's just too slow for the NHL. Yes, that's 8 forwards to fill 3 starter spots and the 2 backup roster positions.

Defense - 4 spots are set:
Krug-Faulk
Parayko-Bortuzzo

The obvious choice for the final two are Perunovich and Mikkola, but the below needs to be considered.

1) Is Scandella moved? We all hope so which would open the door for the following
1a) re-sign Leddy easily. The only challenge I see to this is someone with way more space than the Blues offering him a 6+ AAV 6+ year deal which wouldn't be a bad bet given his age and skill set. The Blues just couldn't afford that with what's coming up in 23-24 (Thomas and Kyrou) and the cap only going up 1M this off-season and 1M next off-season. Barring some major trade we don't see.
1b) leaving the 6th and 7th D positions to Perunovich and Mikkola
2) If Scandella isn't moved, he's one of the 6 defenseman, no matter how much we want that to change, leaving only two roster spots for potentially Leddy, Perunonvich and Mikkola. They could still re-sign Leddy, but there would be very little flex room in the cap.
3) What happens if Kessel stands out in camp? Kessel, at that point, would be the 8th defenseman under option 1 and 9th with option 2.

Should be an interesting summer to see what roster adjustments Armstrong makes. While this isn't really discussed any more, Tarasenko still hasn't officially pulled his trade request. Whenever asked about it, he would say nothing has changed and have the reporters move on. We'll see.

[glen a richter]

If they do move on from Tarasenko then Army can get a kings ransom which he most certainly wouldn't have gotten last season.

Two firsts just to start the conversation?

[gaijin]

It looks like they are in better shape this offseason than next. Re-sign Perron (might be due for a small raise), and the RFAs shouldn't be difficult to sign- Mikkola and Perunovich, while I expect them to be big parts of the team going forward, haven't really "proven themselves" enough to command huge salaries (yet). Bozak- retires. Thanks for everything (seriously). Leddy- moves on. He was a rental anyway. Scandella is a problem- like theo said, it would be optimal to have Perunovich and Mikkola as the 7 and 8. Of course, injuries tend to happen to the Blues' D-corps pretty frequently, so even if Scandella/Leddy stays and Perunovich/Mikkola are initially sent down, it won't be long before one or both of them are back up with the Blues.

Next year- ugh. O'Reilly, Tarasenko, Thomas, Kyrou, Barbashev due for contracts.

[theohall]

Next year- ugh. O'Reilly, Tarasenko, Thomas, Kyrou, Barbashev due for contracts.

That is why, as much as I hate to say it, Tarasenko might be moved. Do they go for one more Cup with this group or do they start working on the future cap issues now?

[glen a richter]

If they’re going to move on from Tarasenko now would be a good year to get a top 5 pick. Hello, New Jersey?

[glen a richter]

The more I sit around and think about it the more I’m in favor of a soft rebuild. There’s guys in the system ready to go and the prospect of clearing some cap space for next season makes it kind of enticing to entertain not only Tarasenko’s trade request which would almost certainly net a top 5 pick this year but also moving on from Barbashev whose value has to be at its peak after the season he had.

[theohall]

The only issue with a soft rebuild is how will fans react to essentially giving the Avs the playoffs next season. Colorado should be able to keep most of their current roster for 22-23. They are going to have to make hard decisions in 23-24. Doing the soft rebuild now could better prepare the Blues to address needs in 23-24 and jump past Colorado. Fans would just have to deal with this being a rebuild season which won't go over well for most if Tarasenko is traded. I get the need to do something now, because the Blues simply weren't competitive enough vs Colorado without a puck handling goalie and slightly faster defenseman.

[glen a richter]

I know the casual fan wants to win every season and expects that but big picture says clear cap space. I wouldn’t take issue if we were looking at Bozak/Barbashev out, Alexandrov/Neighbours in plus trading 91 and getting, likely, a damn good prospect in the draft. It doesn’t have to be a soul crushing rebuild but the window is closing and Colorado’s is wide open. Make the moves now to be competitive when theirs closes or watch some other team leap frog into the opening when that time comes.

[theohall]

The Avs window is closer to being limited than most think given the lack of cap increase over the next two seasons. Look at who Colorado has to pay in 23-24. It makes the Blues situation look tame.

[ComradeT]

Even this post-season may be tough for them with Burakovski and Kadri hitting the UFA market with $4.9mm and $4.5mm, each up for a raise. Nichushkin, Helm and Cogliano are smaller bits but will also need to be replaced. That's pretty much two lines they need to bring back for the next season, and all of these guys contributed heavily. And that's not to mention Kemper. His play was a factor despite the goals he let in. They may seek to improve on him, but either way, it's going to cost them.

[theohall]

They've got 26M in cap space this off-season. The issue is going to be length of contracts which will impact next season when they have to pay much higher end players.

[ComradeT]

In my mind, it's a different challenge this year but a challenge nonetheless. $26mm can evaporate quickly if you have 10 or more roster spots to fill.

[goon attack]

I would never in a million years trade Tarasenko for a top 5 draft pick. With Tarasenko you know you're going to get 30 to 40 goals per season. A draft pick is a roll of the dice.

[theohall]

Reading the Athletic article with post-season press interviews, looks like Armstrong is going to try to keep the band together and deal with the cap in 23-24. It also reads like an ROR extension is done, but it can't officially be announced until July 13th.

[glen a richter]

Obviously Army is the expert on the matter and my opinion is worth less than a warm bucket of piss but I think that's a very shortsighted decision.

Kyrou + Thomas have the makings of a long term dynamic duo that will more than make up for trading Vlad now while his stock is way up. Same for Barbashev, it's possible that he'll replicate his output from this season but I'd argue that his stock is as high as it'll ever be. Getting Neighbours/Alexandrov a full year in the soft rebuild would be perfectly fine with me and I don't know necessarily that Barbashev would get a huge haul but maybe a later first round pick. We've seen Army get amazing returns for very little cost, I don't see any reason why they couldn't get, maybe, one of Arizona's three first rounders.

This team has organizational needs that I'm sure will be discussed in the eventual draft thread but a lot of pieces are already in the system that make it ripe for doing a soft rebuild and making it much easier to sign the guys who definitely need to be re-signed next season. Going into battle with the same band this year just seems like a bad decision, getting rid of a couple of contracts (in the case of Tarasenko getting something now instead of losing him for nothing) won't hopelessly cripple the club. I can see New Jersey being a trade partner, they've already said they'll entertain offers for the 2nd pick and they're very close to being competitive that it wouldn't be the worst trade for them.

[theohall]

Not sure Alexandrov is ready to be bumped up. There are better options in Springfield for a bottom 6 forward role: Joshua (still), Anas, Peca, Bitten or McGing, in that order, should all get looks ahead of Alexandrov. Consider Bitten almost produced as much as Alexandrov in 20+ fewer games solely with the T-Birds. Give Alexandrov a 2nd full year in the AHL.

If the band stays together, none of them are moving up with Neighbours taking one of the forward roles. And Brown is going to find himself back in the AHL.

[glen a richter]

I like McGing but his size concerns me, especially given the role he'd be playing in.

I find myself very irritated that Brown played enough games to negate the condition on the 4th rounder they would have gotten from Ottawa.

[WaukeeBlues]

Free agents:
Perron UFA - expect to re-sign. No idea for how much though.
Bozak UFA (expect him to retire)
Leddy UFA
Rosen UFA (stays on AHL 2-way contract)
Mikkola RFA
Perunovich RFA

The cap is everything.

Projected cap space: $9,012,500 (with Rosen re-signed calculated in as 6th defenseman)
(Would've been 10 but Bozak hit 3 of his 4 performance bonuses to the tune of $1.1 million that carry over to '22-'23, good for him).

Perron is more of a wild card than I think Blues fans want to think he is. He deserves a raise based on his play. He's earned it. It's not a perfect comparison but Pavelski was 10 days shy of his 35th birthday when he signed for 3 years at $7 AAV on July 1, 2019. He had been remarkably healthy to that point in his career, and although points don't say everything Pavelski was at .83 points per game his previous 3 seasons.

Perron just turned 34, has missed way more games than Pavelski did, and he's at .90 points per game his last 3 seasons. If I represent Perron I start with Army at Pavelski's contract: we'll take a 3 year deal at $7 AAV. Army presumably balks, says we'll give you a 2 year deal at $3.5 AAV (or something like that) and away we go. Army is going to try to save every penny he can, tug on every heart string he can with Perron, and Perron is looking for his last contract, just having finished a deal where he was drastically underpaid the entire time. Yea I know Perron loves it here and Army wants him back but I don't think this is as clear cut as we think it'll be. Does Army go a 3rd year on a deal to get the AAV down? Does Perron get alienated if Army low-balls him for too long (Not that Army would ever do that)?

IF Perron signs for somewhere around $5 AAV you've got roughly $4 million for Leddy, Mikkola, Perunovich and Husso. Woof.

Personally I think there's very little chance Leddy resigns. He's got his cup rings, I just wonder if he wants as much term and money as he can get at this stage of his career. If that's true, then someone else is going to be able to offer him way more of both than the Blues can. I'd like to have him back but I fear the term and dollars aren't going to work. Even if we trade Scandella.

Husso it's purely his desires. If he wants paid now, he's gone, IMO. If he's willing to gamble on himself on a 1 or 2 year deal to increase his value while putting some money in his pocket, maybe he stays. But what he wants is going to dictate that.

Today on June 2, 2022 if I was at a table in Vegas putting money on it I would say "Perron re-signs for more AAV and term than people thought, Leddy and Husso walk, and after Mikkola and Perunovich are taken care of we got about $1.5 to $2 million in cap space pending trades.

Even if Army is just tweaking the roster it might be a more interesting summer than we think.

[glen a richter]

I would let Husso walk, not necessarily on account of his crummy post season, but like Theo said he is already 27 and there's a glut of goaltending in the system that's either younger/more experienced/deserving of a shot/so on and so forth... whether Lindgren or Hofer back up Binnington, Ellis and the one not backing up Binner in the AHL, Cranley in the ECHL, Zherenko with his ELC. Husso will want $$ based on his regular season and he can go ahead and get that elsewhere. I'd put money on Edmonton as a destination, goaltending is a weak spot for them and Smith is 40 (I think) so Husso is an upgrade on a team that's pretty damn close as it is.

I do think it would be prudent to draft another goalie for way way down the line.

[flyingnote38]

biggest issue we face is if Binnington is going to be the 2022 playoff version or the 2022 regular season version going forward. if he's not better than mediocre, we aren't going anywhere

barring moving binner (he has a NTC; the Leafs are potentially interested?), we can't afford to keep Husso and should we deal Binner, I'm not sure I'm convinced Husso would be a solid investment as the #1 going forward. Lindgren likely comes back if we think him and hofer are sufficient back ups

barring a tarasenko trade (which would only occur if he still is requesting one), we can likely afford one of Perron or Leddy. obviously it would be Perron although, leddy would probably make more sense. Rutherford tossed out 2 years at 3.5 M for Perron. if that's true, Leddy or a different UFA Dman (Chariot?) becomes more realistic

armie has pulled a couple unexpected trades/moves out of his hat the past couple offseasons, so a big move if it happens may be something we don't see coming (saw a rumor about Tkachuk and a package centered on Kyrou fwiw)