For those that think it's too early to worry about the Birds

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For those that think it's too early to worry about the Birds

Postby DaDitka » Tue Apr 05, 2011 2:47 pm

Even slow starts after four games can foretell failure
04:04 PM

How realistic should Baltimore fans be about seeing the playoffs return to Camden Yards this season? Do the defending World Series champion Giants have reason to be worried?


CAPTIONBy John Ehlke, AP
Entering Tuesday's games, nine major league teams were either 4-0, 3-0 or 3-1 and nine were either 0-4, 0-3 or 1-3.

Some of the starts could be considered surprises, including those of the Orioles (4-0), Royals (3-1), Pirates (3-1), Brewers (0-4), Giants (1-3) and Cardinals (1-3).

According to data provided by the Elias Sports Bureau, it appears you're far worse off in the Brewers', Giants' or Cardinals' position.

Since 1995, the beginning of the wild-card era, only two of the 25 teams (8%) that have started 0-4 have made the playoffs that year: the 1999 Diamondbacks (100-62) and 1995 Reds (85-59 during a season shortened by the 1994 strike). Seven of 51 teams (14%) began 0-3 and made the postseason, while 16 of 104 (15%) started 1-3 and got there.

On the other side, only 20 teams have started off 4-0 since 1995, and 12 of them (60%) have made the playoffs. Twenty-four of 54 (44%) reached the postseason after starting 3-0, while 43 of 113 (38%) did so after beginning 3-1. Incidentally, even 62 of the 187 teams (33%) that started out 2-1 got to the playoffs.

Of course, there's an obvious caveat here because we're three or four games into a 162-game season. Affirmation of how erroneous small sample sizes can be comes in the Rays' 0-3 record to start the season. The Rays lost 91 or more games the first 10 seasons of their existence, yet never began a year 0-3 before 2011.

At least in the Orioles' case, a different, larger sample size can be considered. Including their 4-0 start, the Orioles are 38-23 under new manager Buck Showalter, who took over in August.

According to The Washington Post's Dave Sheinin, over that same stretch, only the Phillies have a better record.

"So this isn't necessarily a four-day phenomenon," Sheinin writes.

However, history proves four-day phenomena can't be completely discounted.
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Re: For those that think it's too early to worry about the Birds

Postby cardsfan04 » Tue Apr 05, 2011 4:16 pm

meh, that doesn't mean much to me tbh. Only ~25% of the teams make the playoffs anyway, so of course the number is going to be super low. Let's say we win 3 in a row and get to 4-3. I'm sure that puts our playoff chances significantly higher according to Elias. But, at the end of the year, if that happens and we make the playoffs, are we really going to look back to a 3 game winning streak in April?

The article even unintentionally pokes a hole in its validity. It says it's a surprise that we are 1-3. That implies that we are one of the better teams to ever start 1-3. So, we should have a higher % chance of making the playoffs than your average 1-3 team. I'm not saying we will make the playoffs for sure. But, the 1-3 start isn't that much of a concern to me.
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Re: For those that think it's too early to worry about the Birds

Postby DaDitka » Wed Apr 06, 2011 6:46 am

cardsfan04 wrote:meh, that doesn't mean much to me tbh. Only ~25% of the teams make the playoffs anyway, so of course the number is going to be super low. Let's say we win 3 in a row and get to 4-3. I'm sure that puts our playoff chances significantly higher according to Elias. But, at the end of the year, if that happens and we make the playoffs, are we really going to look back to a 3 game winning streak in April?

The article even unintentionally pokes a hole in its validity. It says it's a surprise that we are 1-3. That implies that we are one of the better teams to ever start 1-3. So, we should have a higher % chance of making the playoffs than your average 1-3 team. I'm not saying we will make the playoffs for sure. But, the 1-3 start isn't that much of a concern to me.



It's surely not the end all be all by any means. I just thought it was interesting.

However, if you think we are one of the better teams to ever start 1-3......this is easily the worst team we've field in quite some time. And this isn't overreaction, I've believed this all spring. This team does not have one single strength. Our starting pitching is questionable, our bullpen is questionable. Our fielding is terrible. Our base running is terrible. Even the line up is full of holes and needs everything to go great to be better then average, even the most mediocre of pitching staffs can pitch around two batters.

I'll enjoy watching (mostly listening on the radio) the entire season, but I think 84 wins is probably the high water mark for this club.
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