start of season vs making playoffs
Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 1:57 pm
I saw this article linked on another st louis sports forum. I'm only quoting part of it, but I found this to be rather interesting.
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2011/0 ... eason.html
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2011/0 ... eason.html
I'm not surprised that there isn't a big correlation between first 10% and making the playoffs, but I thought it would be closer than it is.Question 1: How likely is it that a team that is in playoff position after 16 games will make the playoffs at the end of the season?
I only looked back five years ... but that was really as far back as I needed to look. The answer is: Not likely. From a quick summary after 16 or so games, only 14 of the 40 teams that eventually made the playoffs the last five years were even tied for a playoff spot. Three of the 14 were the Boston Red Sox, so that should tell you something.
Here's pretty much what you need to know: The last five years, the New York Yankees were only in playoff position once after 16 games. The year? Yep: 2008 -- the one year since the strike that the Yankees did not make the playoffs.
Teams that were in playoff position after 16 games the last five years: Baltimore (twice!), 2009 Kansas City, 2008, 2009 AND 2010 Florida, Oakland four times and so on. You might be aware that none of these teams made the playoffs.