Tracking the Improbable...

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Postby SMS Bleeds Blue » Tue Dec 26, 2006 12:26 am

OPTIMEGUS wrote:************************************
****THE MOST REALISTIC SCENARIO:****
************************************

Suppose the Blues can go 0.600 the rest of the season. That is, they win, say 29 of the 47 games remaining. That measn 84 points for the season and would only need 6 overtime losses.



Problem #1: As soon as you count points for the OTLs, the actual "winning percentage" (the ratio of points earned to points possible) creeps above .600. The only way to get 64 points in 47 games is with a winning percentage of .681 or better. Doesn't matter how you slide the wins and OTLs, you've got to get more than 2 out of every 3 possible points for the rest of the season.

Problem #2: Our "target" of 90 points would have been good for a 10th-place finish in last year's Western Conference. Edmonton needed 95 points to slip in as the #8 seed. The Blues would need a winning percentage of .734 (earning three out of every four possible points) to get to the 95-point plateau.

The "most realistic scenario" is to forget about the playoffs, and enjoy the rejuvenated Blues for what they're now bringing to the ice. They're proving once again that in the ultimate team sport, superior teamwork can overpower superior talent. If this team can fulfill JD's preseason promise, and spend the next 47 games outworking their opponents... they'll go a long way toward restoring the image of the franchise among St. Louis sports fans. And that is more important than the 2007 playoffs.
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Postby ledzeppelinfan1 » Tue Dec 26, 2006 9:54 pm

3-0-3

9 of 12 points .750 +5.8%
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Postby bluenotebacker » Tue Dec 26, 2006 10:20 pm

[/quote]

The "most realistic scenario" is to forget about the playoffs, and enjoy the rejuvenated Blues for what they're now bringing to the ice. They're proving once again that in the ultimate team sport, superior teamwork can overpower superior talent. If this team can fulfill JD's preseason promise, and spend the next 47 games outworking their opponents... they'll go a long way toward restoring the image of the franchise among St. Louis sports fans. And that is more important than the 2007 playoffs.[/quote]


Couldn't have said it any better. Nicely put SMS. I actually have fun watching the games now and I'll take that for now, playoffs or no playoffs.
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Re: Tracking the Improbable...

Postby ledzeppelinfan1 » Wed Dec 27, 2006 10:16 pm

ledzeppelinfan1 wrote:With the recent 3 game winning streak, 5-game unbeaten in regulation streak, the Blues have moved to 10-19-6 as of December 23rd, 2006...completely turning into a different team upon the hiring of Andy Murray.

5 games ago the Blues were 7-19-4 with just 18 points in 30 games, good for last in the NHL. If the Blues were to miraculously make the playoffs, they would need to collect 90 points to even have a chance...which would mean collecting 72 points over the last 52 games, or a .692 winning percentage. Remember...this is as of the 30 game marker.

The Blues since the 30 game marker are 3-0-2, good for an .800 winning percentage...+11.8% over the margin necessary.

This thread will track the team and their post-30 game winning percentage as they turn the worst team in the NHL into an entertaining product once again...and maybe even, a playoff bound club.

The odds are against us, but stranger things have happened.

Post 30 Game Record

3-0-3 .750 +5.8%

*This thread will continue till the topic is rediculous to discuss, or even ponder.


I don't see how this post can be so blatantly laced with realism, yet seen as "homeristic"...

Do you guys READ posts or just scan them??? Seriously, its freakin' annoying.
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Postby rebelmusic » Wed Dec 27, 2006 11:17 pm

Keep it up LZ...

Frank the other guys. Thanks for teh effort.
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Postby _Gassoff » Thu Dec 28, 2006 1:49 am

Right now, the team is still 15th in the Western Conference.

What you do, is not focus on playoffs or win percentage, but rather the team above you.

Phoenix is in 14th place, only one point ahead of the Blues with 28 points this moment. You focus on getting ahead of Phoenix, and then going after L.A. and Columbus.

One step at a time.
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Postby OS » Thu Dec 28, 2006 9:42 am

Agreed... it seems completely impossible when you look at winning percentage, so there's no really no point in tracking it that way. If it happens, it happens.
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Postby ledzeppelinfan1 » Sat Dec 30, 2006 9:25 am

4-0-3 .786 +9.4%
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Postby Aode » Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:05 am

_Gassoff wrote:Right now, the team is still 15th in the Western Conference.

What you do, is not focus on playoffs or win percentage, but rather the team above you.

Phoenix is in 14th place, only one point ahead of the Blues with 28 points this moment. You focus on getting ahead of Phoenix, and then going after L.A. and Columbus.

One step at a time.


I would say avoid looking at the rankings altogether (for the players anyway) just focus on "tonights game" day in and day out and pull down the victories... and then when its all over take a step back and see how you did...
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Postby execwrite » Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:41 am

Aode wrote:
_Gassoff wrote:Right now, the team is still 15th in the Western Conference.

What you do, is not focus on playoffs or win percentage, but rather the team above you.

Phoenix is in 14th place, only one point ahead of the Blues with 28 points this moment. You focus on getting ahead of Phoenix, and then going after L.A. and Columbus.

One step at a time.


I would say avoid looking at the rankings altogether (for the players anyway) just focus on "tonights game" day in and day out and pull down the victories... and then when its all over take a step back and see how you did...


I agree - ignore the other teams and the playoff race.

Get back to .500 and then start from there.
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Postby Winning Unlimited » Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:53 am

I motion to change the name of this thread from "Tracking the Improbable..." to "Tracking teh Inevitable, Bitches!"
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Postby rebelmusic » Sat Dec 30, 2006 1:15 pm

OPTIMEGUS wrote:I motion to change the name of this thread from "Tracking the Improbable..." to "Tracking teh Inevitable, Bitches!"


Frank yeah!
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Postby Aode » Sat Dec 30, 2006 9:46 pm

rebelmusic wrote:
OPTIMEGUS wrote:I motion to change the name of this thread from "Tracking the Improbable..." to "Tracking teh Inevitable, Bitches!"


Frank yeah!


IF they keep this up...

IF

but yea, im excited too, aint gonna lie!! :D
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Postby ledzeppelinfan1 » Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:38 pm

5-0-3 .813 +12.1% 1.63PPG
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Postby TC » Fri Jan 05, 2007 12:52 pm

this week's Inside Hockey power rankings wrote:29. St. Louis Blues (29): Speculation that the Blues might climb
back into the playoff hunt is misguided. Like the Coyotes, this
team is a fire sale waiting to happen. And with goaltender Manny
Legace starting to heat up, teams on the bubble will begin
conjuring visions of him becoming this season's "Dwayne Roloson."
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Postby ksbluesfan » Fri Jan 05, 2007 1:03 pm

TC wrote:
this week's Inside Hockey power rankings wrote:29. St. Louis Blues (29): Speculation that the Blues might climb
back into the playoff hunt is misguided. Like the Coyotes, this
team is a fire sale waiting to happen. And with goaltender Manny
Legace starting to heat up, teams on the bubble will begin
conjuring visions of him becoming this season's "Dwayne Roloson."


A first and a third round pick for Legace? Sold!!!

:D
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Postby BringBackZezel » Fri Jan 05, 2007 1:28 pm

I was thinking that Legace was probably worth a 2nd round pick right now and if he keeps playing well he could move up to the 1st round pick neighborhood.

We'll see.
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Postby ksbluesfan » Fri Jan 05, 2007 1:38 pm

In the past 10 games, no team has lost fewer games than the Blues. The could pass Columbus in the standings by next Wednesday.
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Postby strocklen083 » Fri Jan 05, 2007 1:44 pm

enough with the fire sale talk! This team is improved dramatically and they're starting to finally gel together. Why would you want to break that up by trading for a bunch of picks that won't be anything for at least another three years minimum.

I know i'm beating the dead horse here, but it just makes no sense at all! The only guy i'd be willing to trade is Brewer that is based on his pending free agency along with the arrival of EJ and the log jam we already have at the defensive position.

those guys at Inside Hockey don't have a clue what they're talking about. You know these guys aren't sitting down watching an entire Blues game. They're speculating based on stats sheets they read at nights end. Trading Manny at this point is the most absurd thing ever. why, after years of goaltending struggles would you trade a guy who over the past month has been one of the top 3 goalies in the league?

this is all nonsense. if we keep putting up performances like we have the past two weeks, we'll be right in the thick of this playoff race and considering the weakness of the division, we should have a better shot to leap frog all the guys out west that keep flip-flopping wins with each other

(note: i realize we're doing the same thing with Chicago, but Tuesday's game should have been a win. We all saw how 3 bad minutes can ruin a teams; effort. We should have gained 4 points on the Hawks, but i think this is all part of the growing process for this club)
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Postby BringBackZezel » Fri Jan 05, 2007 1:49 pm

Some of you may read my quick statistical analysis of the Blues playoff chances posted here on December 20th:

http://www.letsgoblues.com/phpBB/viewto ... 897#412897

I decided to up date this since they've been hot recently.

Here are the results:

To be in the top 8 in the WC @ the trade deadline, they need to pick up an average of 1.727 points per game...which is more than what they had to average on Dec. 20 (1.62)

To be in the top 8 in the WC at the end of game 82, they need to pick up an average of 1.33 points per game. That is slightly less than the Dec. 20 average needed of 1.39....but still severely behind their current average of .825 points per game.

In short, they are further from being in the playoff picture as of the trade deadline, and only slightly closer overall.


What more is even if they win their next 10 consecutive games, they still would not be on pace to make the playoffs.
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