start of season vs making playoffs

[cardsfan04]

I saw this article linked on another st louis sports forum. I'm only quoting part of it, but I found this to be rather interesting.

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2011/0 ... eason.html

Question 1: How likely is it that a team that is in playoff position after 16 games will make the playoffs at the end of the season?

I only looked back five years ... but that was really as far back as I needed to look. The answer is: Not likely. From a quick summary after 16 or so games, only 14 of the 40 teams that eventually made the playoffs the last five years were even tied for a playoff spot. Three of the 14 were the Boston Red Sox, so that should tell you something.

Here's pretty much what you need to know: The last five years, the New York Yankees were only in playoff position once after 16 games. The year? Yep: 2008 -- the one year since the strike that the Yankees did not make the playoffs.

Teams that were in playoff position after 16 games the last five years: Baltimore (twice!), 2009 Kansas City, 2008, 2009 AND 2010 Florida, Oakland four times and so on. You might be aware that none of these teams made the playoffs.

I'm not surprised that there isn't a big correlation between first 10% and making the playoffs, but I thought it would be closer than it is.

[abc789987]

Yeah, those numbers look about right to me. 162 is a lot of games...

[dmiles2186]

You look at teams like the mid-00's Astros or the '07 Rockies who were dead in the water and then made insane runs to make the playoffs or even the World Series and its clear that the first 16 games don't matter much. That's why it's always so ridiculous for people to freak out in April about teams or players. Remember a few years back, I think it as Kevin Mench from Texas who hit 10 home runs in the first few weeks of the season? I think he was back in AAA by the end of the year. It's a grind. As long as your team is within striking distance, they've got a chance.

[thedoc]

wow this is jumping the gun

[cardsfan04]

wow this is jumping the gun

actually, exactly the opposite IMO. It basically is saying panicking or overly excited early in the season is pointless.