Best Case Scenario/Worst Case Scenario

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Best Case Scenario/Worst Case Scenario

Postby dmiles2186 » Tue Apr 03, 2012 7:30 am

We're a day away from our defending champs' first game of the season. Like last year, instead of GDT's I'll probably do series threads and try to stay on top of those if I can. I know this forum doesn't have a whole lot of activity, but still fun to talk Cardinals' baseball.

In this thread, I thought we could play a game of Best Case/Worst Case Scenario for the 2012 Cardinals. Then at the end of the season we can all look back and see how close we were. So here goes...

Best Case: On a team loaded with potential injury risks, the veterans stay healthy and the Cardinals battle all season with the Reds for the division title. The Cardinals take the title, but fall just short of a 2nd straight World Series appearance, losing in the NLCS.

Worst Case: Injuries hit like the plague, and while playing near .500 ball in July, they call up Shelby Miller, play some of the other call up's, but miss the playoffs in Matheny's maiden voyage as skipper.
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Re: Best Case Scenario/Worst Case Scenario

Postby cardsfan04 » Tue Apr 03, 2012 7:43 am

Best case: I think we clearly have the talent to win a World Series. Not predicting it, but I think that's our best case. Our lineup is very comparable to last year. Our rotation is pretty solid. Our bullpen is weaker than October, but if Carpenter pushes Lynn back to the pen and Sanchez fixes his delivery it can move from a question mark to a strength.

Worst case: Our other injury prone players get injured and we miss the playoffs. Injuries is my biggest concern this year.
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Re: Best Case Scenario/Worst Case Scenario

Postby DaDitka » Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:22 am

No matter how you twist it I think this is a much better club then last year. The Locker Room is much better, Matt is healthy, David is healthy, and we will be far more aggressive on the base paths.

Under Tony this team was screwed when the bats would go cold. This team should be far better at manufacturing runs (I don't want to hear about Tony's hit-and-runs). Maybe if we let guys actually steel second from time to time in front of Albert he couldn't have hit into so many double plays.
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Re: Best Case Scenario/Worst Case Scenario

Postby cardsfan04 » Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:46 am

We might see an increase in stealing, but I don't think it will happen a ton either. Conventional wisdom on stealing has changed in the past 20 years. If you're not successful 70% of the time, you're hurting the team by ever trying (oversimplifying, but essentially). I think Greene and Beltran might be the only two that can be successful 70%. Maybe Komatsu too as he's super fast.
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Re: Best Case Scenario/Worst Case Scenario

Postby DaDitka » Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:54 am

cardsfan04 wrote:We might see an increase in stealing, but I don't think it will happen a ton either. Conventional wisdom on stealing has changed in the past 20 years. If you're not successful 70% of the time, you're hurting the team by ever trying (oversimplifying, but essentially). I think Greene and Beltran might be the only two that can be successful 70%. Maybe Komatsu too as he's super fast.



By no means am I saying we are going to lead the league in steels, but we will manufacture more runs, we will hit into far less double plays, and the pitcher will actually have to be at least somewhat concerned with the threat of a steel. How often did opposing pitchers not even have to concern himself with the runners because Albert was either up or on deck and he know there was no chance of a steal?

Spreading the pitcher's concentration between the batter and base runners will influence his execution. A walk here, a wild throw to first there, and an occasional pitch that get's hung up in the zone and knocked out of the park are some of the many advantages we will see this year.
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Re: Best Case Scenario/Worst Case Scenario

Postby cardsfan04 » Tue Apr 03, 2012 10:53 am

DaDitka wrote:
cardsfan04 wrote:We might see an increase in stealing, but I don't think it will happen a ton either. Conventional wisdom on stealing has changed in the past 20 years. If you're not successful 70% of the time, you're hurting the team by ever trying (oversimplifying, but essentially). I think Greene and Beltran might be the only two that can be successful 70%. Maybe Komatsu too as he's super fast.



By no means am I saying we are going to lead the league in steels, but we will manufacture more runs, we will hit into far less double plays, and the pitcher will actually have to be at least somewhat concerned with the threat of a steel. How often did opposing pitchers not even have to concern himself with the runners because Albert was either up or on deck and he know there was no chance of a steal?

Spreading the pitcher's concentration between the batter and base runners will influence his execution. A walk here, a wild throw to first there, and an occasional pitch that get's hung up in the zone and knocked out of the park are some of the many advantages we will see this year.


Good points.
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Re: Best Case Scenario/Worst Case Scenario

Postby dmiles2186 » Tue Apr 03, 2012 12:17 pm

Man, I hope we see more stealing. I'm 26, for the better part of my life, the Cardinals have been a slow, plodding, home run hitting team. Not that they didn't have speed guys from time to time, but overall, the Cardinals have always been one of the slowest teams (in terms of steals) in the leagues. I love the small ball stuff and that's largely been missing since Albert came up.
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