Why Miller and not Moulson?

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Why Miller and not Moulson?

Postby evil roy » Thu Feb 06, 2014 2:39 pm

Am I the only one who remembers that the Blues finished 17th in GF and 7th in GA last year? Or that in 6 playoff games vs LA we managed a mere 10 goals while allowing only 12? (2.00 GAA and 1.67 GFA) Am I the only one who was baffled when Armstrong elected to go after defensemen at the trade deadline instead of a scoring forward? What was there to indicate that defense was our weak point but offense was fine? What is there now??

Consider the following:

In '12-'13 the Blues GPG was 2.58, their GAA was 2.38. Through the first 41 games of this season, the Blues were scoring at a pace of 3.56 gpg while their team GAA was 2.27. In the last 14 games however, scoring has dropped to 2.64 gpg while still allowing only 2.43. In other words over the first 41 games of this season the Blues were scoring nearly ONE MORE GOAL PER GAME (while GAA remained nearly unchanged. None of the above stats count shootout goals).

These stats beg the question--are the Blues in a slump or are they finally finding their level? Given the dearth of PROVEN NHL-level scoring talent on this team and the resemblance of the "last-14" stats to last season's, the latter certainly seems more likely. To think that we are nearly leading the league in scoring with guys named Backes, Oshie, Berglund, Tarasenko, Schwartz and Steen seems nigh on a miracle--especially to those of us who have heard over and over how Petterson\Felsner\Campbell\Cajanek\Hecht\Perron\, etc were going to be the nucleus of the "Next Great Blues Championship Team". It is not a stretch to say that not just some Blues, but THE Blues are having a career year; which is just another way of saying this is as good as it's likely to get. I can hear the hisses and catcalls already but be honest--how many of you think this team AS IT STANDS will have a better shot at the Cup next year than this year?

So whether the Blues are a flash in the pan or a Team of Destiny--I say now is NOT the time to stand pat. We have waited nearly half a century for a team like this to come along and I'm tired of hearing fans talk about "The Future"--the future is NOW and I say we put the pieces in place to win NOW. Because for the first time in a long time I truly believe that the Blues could actually win it all. And frankly if that means missing the franking playoffs next year--I'm good with that.

Chances like this don't come along often (less so if you're a Blues fan)--you need to be ready when they do.
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Re: Why Miller and not Moulson?

Postby not_a_wings_fan » Thu Feb 06, 2014 5:15 pm

I don't trust the scoring output either.

I would love to see us add someone that can consistently pot 30+ goals a season but those guys don't come cheap, don't grow on trees, and are going to have a difficult time working with our cap number unless serious salary is moving the other way.

Vanek would be interesting, but the package they want is pretty steep - similar to what they paid for him just this season.

But your point is well taken - would we be better served getting more scoring or getting more defense against scoring? It's a tough call, imo.
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Re: Why Miller and not Moulson?

Postby cardsfan04 » Thu Feb 06, 2014 6:12 pm

Whether to get more scoring or better goaltending depends on the cost of each. Whichever is a better value. Neither is a big hole, so you make the best improvement in terms of cost and sustainability (thinking beyond this season).
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Re: Why Miller and not Moulson?

Postby not_a_wings_fan » Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:34 pm

I wouldn't be opposed to getting Moulson. He's had three 30+ seasons and is still doing respectable for being on such a shitty team.

I don't know enough about his two-way play to know if he fits here, but we could use someone that can snipe on the wing.

So maybe we should rename the thread what about Miller AND Moulson?
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Re: Why Miller and not Moulson?

Postby Oaklandblue » Mon Feb 24, 2014 7:35 pm

Both sound like rentals to me.

Are the Sabres going to blow up the team and hope they get enough picks to start from square one and rebuild or are they looking for more? If we can get away with giving them picks and players like Halak and Stewart and acquire both Moulson and Miller for just the year, we really should consider doing it. Otherwise, I for one don't see the point because my line of thinking is, if we acquire say, just Moulson and we ship out someone like Stewart for it, after this year Moulson's going to ask for big money. Is this something we can afford without giving up additional roster players?

What is Buffalo's plan because it's like they don't have one and are waiting for The Deal, which in their position is really risky.
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Re: Why Miller and not Moulson?

Postby cardsfan04 » Mon Feb 24, 2014 10:18 pm

Buffalo is already at square one. They might be worse than the Blues were ~5 years ago. I'm sure they would be eager to acquire picks. Stewart is probably close to young enough that they would take him, but I doubt he would be their target.

I don't think we would trade for Miller if he only is a rental. The only reason trading for him makes any sense to me is to have re-sign him to mentor Allen.
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Re: Why Miller and not Moulson?

Postby drwoland » Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:41 pm

I still haven't heard a credible argument explaining "Why Miller and not Halak?"

:okman:
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Re: Why Miller and not Moulson?

Postby Oaklandblue » Wed Feb 26, 2014 1:57 am

drwoland wrote:I still haven't heard a credible argument explaining "Why Miller and not Halak?"

:okman:


Considering both are expensive UFAs (All three are UFAs, including Elliott), so technically that question is invalid, at least to me. After this season the only netminder we're left with on contract is Jake Allen and the front office has not been in any hurry to sign either Halak or Elliott which speaks louder than words.

But if we could choose one or the other with the cost being somewhere in the neighborhood of a pick:

* Miller is 15-22-3 with a .923 and 2.72 with 1,303 Saves and 108 GA
* Halak is 24-8-4 with a .915 and 2.26 with 885 Saves and 82 GA

That tells the tale.
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Re: Why Miller and not Moulson?

Postby not_a_wings_fan » Wed Feb 26, 2014 9:51 am

Oaklandblue wrote:
drwoland wrote:I still haven't heard a credible argument explaining "Why Miller and not Halak?"

:okman:


Considering both are expensive UFAs (All three are UFAs, including Elliott), so technically that question is invalid, at least to me. After this season the only netminder we're left with on contract is Jake Allen and the front office has not been in any hurry to sign either Halak or Elliott which speaks louder than words.

But if we could choose one or the other with the cost being somewhere in the neighborhood of a pick:

* Miller is 15-22-3 with a .923 and 2.72 with 1,303 Saves and 108 GA
* Halak is 24-8-4 with a .915 and 2.26 with 885 Saves and 82 GA

That tells the tale.
What tale does it tell?

Halak has a better record and a lower GAA? Miller has a higher Save %?

Which metric is more accurate and can you call it apples and apples with the different teams that play in front of them?

Would Miller's GAA and record be better than Halak if Miller was in the 'note? If Miller has the same save percentage listed in your comparison and you apply it to the shots Halak has faced in 36 contests it's a 1.88 GAA - and I bet we win more of those games.

tl;dr - What are you trying to say with your numbers?
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Re: Why Miller and not Moulson?

Postby Oaklandblue » Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:15 pm

not_a_wings_fan wrote:
Oaklandblue wrote:
drwoland wrote:I still haven't heard a credible argument explaining "Why Miller and not Halak?"

:okman:


Considering both are expensive UFAs (All three are UFAs, including Elliott), so technically that question is invalid, at least to me. After this season the only netminder we're left with on contract is Jake Allen and the front office has not been in any hurry to sign either Halak or Elliott which speaks louder than words.

But if we could choose one or the other with the cost being somewhere in the neighborhood of a pick:

* Miller is 15-22-3 with a .923 and 2.72 with 1,303 Saves and 108 GA
* Halak is 24-8-4 with a .915 and 2.26 with 885 Saves and 82 GA

That tells the tale.
What tale does it tell?

Halak has a better record and a lower GAA? Miller has a higher Save %?

Which metric is more accurate and can you call it apples and apples with the different teams that play in front of them?

Would Miller's GAA and record be better than Halak if Miller was in the 'note? If Miller has the same save percentage listed in your comparison and you apply it to the shots Halak has faced in 36 contests it's a 1.88 GAA - and I bet we win more of those games.

tl;dr - What are you trying to say with your numbers?


I deserve that. I didn't finish my thought, my bad. What I am saying:

Halak and Miller are about even money with ONE major difference.

Halak plays for the second BEST team in the league.
Miller plays for the WORST team in the league.

And yet they have comprable stats.

No one would blame Ryan Miller for deciding to give up and tank, yet he's rolling stats as good as the starter for the second best team in the NHL working with the worst.

There is a point where Halak doesn't have any excuses. Him and Ells have played this year like backups. Miller is a genuine starter.

I think the big question is, if price was not a concern and it was all even money, would Halak or Elliott still be here?

I'd have to say no. Neither of them being resigned says alot about the confidence of the Front Office. Had we a player in goal along the lines of a Pie or a Schwartz, you'd better believe the multi-year contract would have been signed months ago. It hasn't.

I think we have seen Halak's ceiling and I'm not going to knock the guy, but I don't think he's our solution.

Elliott's ceiling has been insane and if you hit him at the right time with the right circumstances and the right mental toughness, he could hit .940 again because he's hit it before and when he's in sync, you ain't stopping him. BUT...he's a backup at best because he's not reliable but he has been our rock at goal.

It's going to be interesting to see how this turns out either way. While after all is said and done that I'm against Miller due to concerns that it'll cost us too much of the team to have him, thus negating any positives and breaking even, I like how it seems that we may have the mental advantage as a great deal of posters are genuinely in arms about the idea of us getting Miller as they seem to think that if we do, the Cup is ours.

I don't know if I'd entirely buy that, but I like how it scares people. That might be the kind of get-in-your-head stuff that we need.
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Re: Why Miller and not Moulson?

Postby not_a_wings_fan » Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:06 pm

Well that makes a great deal more sense, lol.

I'm leery of the cost as well.

Salary would have to move in any deal to fit the cap. That being said there are only a couple of moveable pieces to offer. Halak is a rental same as Miller. I don't see them swapping rentals, so we would have to sweeten that pot with a roster player, a prospect, and likely a mid round pick to get this deal done - with no assurances that Miller would fit our cap constraints or even sign going forward.

So what roster player/prospect do they want?

If this deal happens it will be because no one else would make the deal and would be right at the deadline, imo.

I am NOT in favor of Allen moving. I would like to see Allen and Miller the rest of the way, meaning we get the pick we use in the miller deal back for Elliot from another team. I see value there, but that's another thread.
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Re: Re: Why Miller and not Moulson?

Postby theohall » Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:06 pm

not_a_wings_fan wrote:Well that makes a great deal more sense, lol.

I'm leery of the cost as well.

Salary would have to move in any deal to fit the cap. That being said there are only a couple of moveable pieces to offer. Halak is a rental same as Miller. I don't see them swapping rentals, so we would have to sweeten that pot with a roster player, a prospect, and likely a mid round pick to get this deal done - with no assurances that Miller would fit our cap constraints or even sign going forward.

So what roster player/prospect do they want?

If this deal happens it will be because no one else would make the deal and would be right at the deadline, imo.

I am NOT in favor of Allen moving. I would like to see Allen and Miller the rest of the way, meaning we get the pick we use in the miller deal back for Elliot from another team. I see value there, but that's another thread.

Good call on what it would take.
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Re: Why Miller and not Moulson?

Postby not_a_wings_fan » Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:19 am

not to mention that Miller has been even better behind our defense than his numbers would have projected:

6-0-1, 1.70, .932

That's Vezina numbers right there.

He keeps that play up and you are talking about Hart trophy for a netminder.

I don't see that sticking, but sure is nice to see he's our guy.
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Re: Why Miller and not Moulson?

Postby glen a richter » Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:34 am

I do see that sticking. He was putting up great numbers on a team he knew would never win. Now he's on a team he knows is going places, that has to be a moral boost that's giving him newfound confidence. I'm just surprised he hasn't had a shutout yet. But it's coming.
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Re: Why Miller and not Moulson?

Postby cardsfan04 » Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:12 pm

glen a richter wrote:I do see that sticking. He was putting up great numbers on a team he knew would never win. Now he's on a team he knows is going places, that has to be a moral boost that's giving him newfound confidence. I'm just surprised he hasn't had a shutout yet. But it's coming.


Yeah, I could see something like that sticking too. Maybe not THAT good, but not far from it. On top of the morale boost, he also is facing fewer shots and fewer high quality shots here.

I've been waiting for that shutout too. It'll come.
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