Offseason Changes to the Roster?

[goon attack]

this thread is pretty entertaining.

Ovechkin? Are you people high on dope? Not. Gonna. Happen.
Can you imagine him playing under Hitch? I can't. I'm sure Hitch can't either. (Frank) him. He's never won shit.

Miller is an average goalie, period. I'm more than happy to go with Elliot/Allen.

Let's steady this boat and keep the players moving forward and developing under this system.

I favor keeping this team largely intact. Yes, I hate Berglund, but hell, keep him too. He knows the system and he tends to be streaky.

This may not have crossed anyone's mind, but players do get smarter and better within their careers. Assuming nobody regresses, this team should be better next year as well....but we really need more scoring. I wish Rattie or someone else would just step up and be a difference maker. It's possible. That's what this team needs. Keep the team largely intact and hope for some of the young guys to show marked improvement. This isn't a static dynamic we're talking here. Some of the guys simply must be better, must up their games. 9 showed marked improvement this season, as did 91. I expect the same from others.

Meh. Another flameout. Big fuckin' deal, right?

If Stastny can be had, I say go for it. But other than that, I wouldn't tinker too much. Gives these guys more time, I say.

[Slim]

this thread is pretty entertaining.

Ovechkin? Are you people high on dope? Not. Gonna. Happen.
Can you imagine him playing under Hitch? I can't. I'm sure Hitch can't either. (Frank) him. He's never won shit.

Miller is an average goalie, period. I'm more than happy to go with Elliot/Allen.

Let's steady this boat and keep the players moving forward and developing under this system.

I favor keeping this team largely intact. Yes, I hate Berglund, but hell, keep him too. He knows the system and he tends to be streaky.

This may not have crossed anyone's mind, but players do get smarter and better within their careers. Assuming nobody regresses, this team should be better next year as well....but we really need more scoring. I wish Rattie or someone else would just step up and be a difference maker. It's possible. That's what this team needs. Keep the team largely intact and hope for some of the young guys to show marked improvement. This isn't a static dynamic we're talking here. Some of the guys simply must be better, must up their games. 9 showed marked improvement this season, as did 91. I expect the same from others.

Meh. Another flameout. Big fuckin' deal, right?

If Stastny can be had, I say go for it. But other than that, I wouldn't tinker too much. Gives these guys more time, I say.

I agree with all of this.

Miller, Roy, and Leopold should walk.
Ott was disappointing until the playoffs. Less money and I'm cool with staying.
This team doesn't need to get blown up, coaching staff and GM included(maybe PP coaching though). Let a few weeks pass and the pain of this ease and re-address then. I believe several of you are still too pissed to think clearly.

[Oaklandblue]

this thread is pretty entertaining.

Ovechkin? Are you people high on dope? Not. Gonna. Happen.
Can you imagine him playing under Hitch? I can't. I'm sure Hitch can't either. (Frank) him. He's never won shit.

Miller is an average goalie, period. I'm more than happy to go with Elliot/Allen.

Let's steady this boat and keep the players moving forward and developing under this system.

I favor keeping this team largely intact. Yes, I hate Berglund, but hell, keep him too. He knows the system and he tends to be streaky.

This may not have crossed anyone's mind, but players do get smarter and better within their careers. Assuming nobody regresses, this team should be better next year as well....but we really need more scoring. I wish Rattie or someone else would just step up and be a difference maker. It's possible. That's what this team needs. Keep the team largely intact and hope for some of the young guys to show marked improvement. This isn't a static dynamic we're talking here. Some of the guys simply must be better, must up their games. 9 showed marked improvement this season, as did 91. I expect the same from others.

Meh. Another flameout. Big (Frank)' deal, right?

If Stastny can be had, I say go for it. But other than that, I wouldn't tinker too much. Gives these guys more time, I say.

I agree with all of this.

Miller, Roy, and Leopold should walk.
Ott was disappointing until the playoffs. Less money and I'm cool with staying.
This team doesn't need to get blown up, coaching staff and GM included(maybe PP coaching though). Let a few weeks pass and the pain of this ease and re-address then. I believe several of you are still too pissed to think clearly.

I also agree with all of this save whoever is the PP Coach needs to go.

[tjk002]

this thread is pretty entertaining.

I favor keeping this team largely intact. Yes, I hate Berglund, but hell, keep him too. He knows the system and he tends to be streaky.

.

Berglund streaky? I've seen him show flashes of awfulness that's about it. Guy played 4 games in the playoffs and led the team with a -7.

As far as the regular season. The guy played 78 games and had 14 goals. Stewart outscored him and played in 20 less games. I'm not sure he was streaky this year. He was just plain awful. Very doubtful he returns unless he's playing for 1 million or less. Otherwise, he's a waste of a uniform.

[STLADOGG]

I think ownership put all there cards into the basket this year.
This off-season, we will shed some dollars and not replace them.

[Nyghtewynd]

If the franchise stands pat, the rubes that buy tickets will have a lot of elbow room at the regular season games.

[dmiles2186]

The Score discusses this...

http://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/490891

In 2011-12, the St. Louis Blues took the step from middle-of-the-pack to one of the NHL’s best clubs. That meant a leap from 87 points in 2010-11 to 109 points the next season, finishing just two points behind the Vancouver Canucks in the race for the President’s Trophy. They then finished third in the West in 2012-13, and did so again this past season with 111 points.

That’s three seasons in which the Blues have dealt with playoff expectations, and the only thing they have to show for it is a single series win in ‘11-12. That’s a problem.

Last season they got bumped by the Los Angeles Kings in round one in dramatically similar fashion to their exit at the hands of the Blackhawks this season. Check this out:

This year was supposed to be different.

So what now? The Blues are not a team that’s built to naturally improve based on age, this is a group that was supposed to be ready to win yesterday.

They’ve assembled a beautiful d-corps, certainly the type that could contend for a Cup, and they’ve got them all under contract for at least one more full season. While youth may not be a general asset for the Blues, Alex Peitrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk help make up a group that are more part of the solution than the problem.

It’s up front that something has to be done.

The good news is, there’s going to be the opportunity to do something, but that “something” won’t be easy - they need elite scoring.

Nothing has been more evident over the past few playoff seasons than the fact that the Blues lack the type of elite game-breaking talent that’s been beating them. They scored just 12 goals in regulation time over six games against Chicago (just six in the last four games), while names like Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane, and Patrick Sharp rolled over them. The year before, it was the Kopitars and Carters doing damage.

The “something” the Blues are going to have this summer is opening cap space and roster spots. 35-year-old Brenden Morrow is a pending unrestricted free agent, opening up $1.5 million in room. 31-year-old Steve Ott and his nearly $3m are coming off the books. So too is the $4m of 30-year-old Derek Roy. Combine those dollars with a salary cap that’s moving up to somewhere in the $71 million range, and they should be able to afford some talent, even with a raise coming for Jaden Schwartz.

But as I said earlier, adding that is easier said than done, because elite talent isn’t readily available, and if you buy it on the open market, you’re generally going to pay out the backside.

30-year-old Thomas Vanek is poised to receive the second massive contract of his career, but do you want to buy the decline years of an offense-only player for an ungodly sum? Well, here’s where you start making decisions. If this is a team built to win and win now (and it is, with really only Vladimir Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz being regular forwards below their peak output years), maybe you roll those dice. This team isn’t far off.

Past Vanek, there aren’t too many names who fall into the category of the Blues major need - top-end talent. Matt Moulson is another 30-year-old due a big payday. Paul Stastny is an underrated commodity at 28. …After that you’re kinda stuck. You can grab Jaromir Jagr at 43 or Jarome Iginla at 37, but I think that’s already a step away from the “elite” forwards I’m talking about here.

The issue of goaltending will be easier to solve. Between Jaroslav Halak, Thomas Greiss, Ryan Miller, Jonas Hiller and a boatload of other names, they should be able to get that taken care of.

So, it’s decision time up front. The Blues roster is more or less “pot committed” to use a poker analogy, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go all-in on the Austrian playmaker. They’re going to be a great team again next year, but success in the regular season is no longer good enough. What they do this summer will show how serious they are about making a push for the Cup.

[ecbm]

First and most important change is to get rid of Armstrong. Ultimately, in exchange for:

E. Johnson
McClement
Nikitin
Bishop
Eller
Perron
2 1st round picks
3rd round pick
Carrier

We got:

Shattenkirk
Pajaarvi
2nd round pick
Miller/Ott rental
Kris Russell

That is objectively terrible. Without a new GM, I suspect the answer to all problems in the organization will be to try to be more like the Dallas Stars ca. 2000. Plus at this point we have little cap space and aren't any sort of draw to big names.

If Miller is retained it'll be clear that running this team is more about proving the front office right than winning. I don't blame them for the move, I supported it at the time. But I-and the front office-was wrong, and you can't go throwing good money after bad.

Unfortunately, with the prospect pipeline drying up, this season feels like a high water mark. I hope I'm wrong.

[flyingnote38]

First and most important change is to get rid of Armstrong. Ultimately, in exchange for:

E. Johnson
McClement
Nikitin
Bishop
Eller
Perron
2 1st round picks
3rd round pick
Carrier

We got:

Shattenkirk
Pajaarvi
2nd round pick
Miller/Ott rental
Kris Russell

That is objectively terrible. Without a new GM, I suspect the answer to all problems in the organization will be to try to be more like the Dallas Stars ca. 2000. Plus at this point we have little cap space and aren't any sort of draw to big names.

If Miller is retained it'll be clear that running this team is more about proving the front office right than winning. I don't blame them for the move, I supported it at the time. But I-and the front office-was wrong, and you can't go throwing good money after bad.

Unfortunately, with the prospect pipeline drying up, this season feels like a high water mark. I hope I'm wrong.

Your trade composite was very similar to one I was pondering. I agree with your analysis that Army should be fired.

Rolling the Johnson and Miller trades and the draft choice deal for the 2nd that we used on Carrier in one bundle;
We have Shattenkirk, Rattie and pending UFAs Miller and Ott in exchange for Johnson, McClement, 2 1sts, 2 3rds, and 2 4ths

[Kerfuffle]

The front office can let Miller walk and still save face by just stating that they tried to bring him back but they couldn't find middle ground in terms of money. There's no way they will admit they made a mistake.

[flyingnote38]

So, time to be a ray of sunshine.

Positives:

1) Schwartz and Tarasenko are the best offensive tandem we have drafted since Federko and Sutter and they are not into their prime yet.
2) cap space
3) seven NHL caliber dmen under contract for next season
4) AHL goalie of the year Jake Allen
5) the lesson of Alex Steen's career first half that showed just how good this team could be with an elite scorer added to it.

Back comes Debbie downer
1) Armstrong has stripped the system of depth so that we can't make depth reducing trades and expect to replace from within thus requiring spending on free agents to refill roster depth
2) ownership likely reluctant or unable to spend to the cap
3) GM that I'm not sure I trust to see what the team needs are, let alone successfully fill them.

[cprice12]

Getting rid of Armstrong is quite possibly the dumbest thing I have read in this thread.

Armstrong Stays.
Hitchcock Stays.

They don't need to do a lot to this roster. We can let almost all of the UFA's walk without hurting the team at all.

Our UFA's and their salaries this last year:
- Berglund - $3.25m
- Roy - $4.00
- Ott - $3.20
- Morrow - $1.50
- Aucoin - $625k
- Cracknell - $600k
- Colaiacovo - $550k
- Elliott - $1.29

I don't think Miller was the problem at all. He was good enough for us to beat Chicago...and damn good for long stretches during most of the games.
We need more impact players who are difference makers on the scoreboard. Period.
The defense is fine...for the most part and we have good goaltending options.
We've needed to acquire an elite goal scorer for a few years now...and it is obviously our number one priority...so expect us to try to address that issue.

Free up money by letting Roy, Ott, Morrow & Berglund walk...insert Cracknell & Porter... re-sign Elliott for $3 million and use the extra money (factoring in the increased salary cap) to go after a legit goal scorer...if you are spending the same or more than last year that is. We haven't heard what the team budget will be yet.

Some of the scoring UFA's that may or may not be available:
- Stastny - He won't be available...but I'd love to have him.
- Cammalleri - He may be available...and I'd like to nab him if he isn't asking for too much. He made $7 million last year...he's not worth that. If he would come down to $5 to $5.5, I'd be a buyer on him, but no more.
- Gaborik - He made $7.5 last season. He'll probably get $7 or so somewhere...I'm on the fence on him at that price. He's only two seasons removed from a 40 goal season...but we need sniper of a goal scorer, and he certainly fits that bill.
- Callahan - He made $4.87 last year. He's not exactly the sniper we're looking for, but he would be nice to have.

By the way...I like how Frank Cusamano tweeted that Miller's play in the playoffs opens the door for Allen to be our starter next year. I laughed. Even if we don't resign Miller, Allen will not be our starter. He'll backup either Elliott or someone else we acquire. A team with expectations of a deep playoff run does NOT anoint a goalie with only a handful of games played in the NHL as the #1 goalie going into the season. That just isn't going to happen...well, I guess it COULD happen, but that would be taking a huge unknown risk at the most important position on the ice.
I like you Frank...but you should stick to basketball my friend.

[flyingnote38]

Getting rid of Armstrong is quite possibly the dumbest thing I have read in this thread.

Armstrong Stays.
Hitchcock Stays.

They don't need to do a lot to this roster. We can let almost all of the UFA's walk without hurting the team at all.

Our UFA's and their salaries this last year:
- Berglund - $3.25m

Some of the scoring UFA's that may or may not be available:
- Stastny - He won't be available...but I'd love to have him.
- Cammalleri - He may be available...and I'd like to nab him if he isn't asking for too much. He made $7 million last year...he's not worth that. If he would come down to $5 to $5.5, I'd be a buyer on him, but no more.
- Gaborik - He made $7.5 last season. He'll probably get $7 or so somewhere...I'm on the fence on him at that price. He's only two seasons removed from a 40 goal season...but we need sniper of a goal scorer, and he certainly fits that bill.
- Callahan - He made $4.87 last year. He's not exactly the sniper we're looking for, but he would be nice to have.
.

Berglund is an RFA and likely trade bait.

Callahan or preferably Stastny would solve the need for a second line center. You could then deal for a scoring winger. Likely need to deal from strength (defense) to get upgrade on offense as the cupboard is pretty bare and to make the $$ work.

[ecbm]

A team with expectations of a deep playoff run does NOT anoint a goalie with only a handful of games played in the NHL as the #1 goalie going into the season

Well someone must have forgotten to tell that to Detroit and Jimmy Howard.

I don't understand how you don't think Miller was a problem. One win-just one-in those last six games and we face MIN. And game three is wholly on Miller. We didn't give what we did for him to be slightly inferior to Crawford. That absolutely was a problem, though I agree with the analysis that the lack of clutch scoring was probably more important. The Steen extension looks highly questionable to me right now. And the Perron-for-a-bag-of-pucks trade also looks questionable but the Blues PR machine got everyone hating that guy so intensely I'm sure they're just looking past the fact that he outscored everyone on our roster other than Steen on arguably the worst team in the league.

Other bits: I don't think anyone in the NHL would give anything for Berglund right now. I'd do anything to get him off the roster though. Also, why did Reaves dress for those six games? It's not even hypothetical, it's proven: a guy takes a head shot at our captain, knocks him out for games and...nothing. So what's the point in giving such an offensive/possession black hole all those minutes?

[glen a richter]

I'm happy to see that Curt didn't say my suggested trade for Ovie wasn't the dumbest thing he saw in this thread.

Yes it's highly unlikely. Maybe it's foolish. But is it 100% unrealistic? Hell no. Even Gretzky got traded a couple times. Really, if we think that Vanek, Gaborik, Stastny et al... are the offensive solutions, get real. There are only a few big name GENUINE snipers out there, many of which are completely unavailable (Crosby) but Washington is going through changes brought about exactly because they didn't like the way Ovie played. If Hitch can get Brett Hull to play D and still produce, he can get Ovechkin to do the same.

The problem is that based on what we're used to as of late, high scoring forward = 65-70 points. Big fat flipping deal 65-70 points. We need a guy who can put the puck in the net at will. I think the rest of our defense is solid enough to make up for any gaffes he may pull at the other end of the ice.

[glen a richter]

Getting rid of Armstrong is quite possibly the dumbest thing I have read in this thread.

Armstrong Stays.
Hitchcock Stays.

They don't need to do a lot to this roster. We can let almost all of the UFA's walk without hurting the team at all.

Our UFA's and their salaries this last year:
- Berglund - $3.25m

Some of the scoring UFA's that may or may not be available:
- Stastny - He won't be available...but I'd love to have him.
- Cammalleri - He may be available...and I'd like to nab him if he isn't asking for too much. He made $7 million last year...he's not worth that. If he would come down to $5 to $5.5, I'd be a buyer on him, but no more.
- Gaborik - He made $7.5 last season. He'll probably get $7 or so somewhere...I'm on the fence on him at that price. He's only two seasons removed from a 40 goal season...but we need sniper of a goal scorer, and he certainly fits that bill.
- Callahan - He made $4.87 last year. He's not exactly the sniper we're looking for, but he would be nice to have.
.

Berglund is an RFA and likely trade bait.

Callahan or preferably Stastny would solve the need for a second line center. You could then deal for a scoring winger. Likely need to deal from strength (defense) to get upgrade on offense as the cupboard is pretty bare and to make the $$ work.

Cally is re-signing with Tampa Bay and everyone knows it. Likewise, Stastny is re-signing wiht Colorado and everyone knows that too. The only way we upgrade our offense is via trade or hope that Schwartz and Tarasenko break out in a big way.

[Nyghtewynd]

Getting rid of Armstrong is quite possibly the dumbest thing I have read in this thread.

Armstrong Stays.
Hitchcock Stays.

They don't need to do a lot to this roster. We can let almost all of the UFA's walk without hurting the team at all.

Our UFA's and their salaries this last year:
- Berglund - $3.25m

Some of the scoring UFA's that may or may not be available:
- Stastny - He won't be available...but I'd love to have him.
- Cammalleri - He may be available...and I'd like to nab him if he isn't asking for too much. He made $7 million last year...he's not worth that. If he would come down to $5 to $5.5, I'd be a buyer on him, but no more.
- Gaborik - He made $7.5 last season. He'll probably get $7 or so somewhere...I'm on the fence on him at that price. He's only two seasons removed from a 40 goal season...but we need sniper of a goal scorer, and he certainly fits that bill.
- Callahan - He made $4.87 last year. He's not exactly the sniper we're looking for, but he would be nice to have.
.

Berglund is an RFA and likely trade bait.

Callahan or preferably Stastny would solve the need for a second line center. You could then deal for a scoring winger. Likely need to deal from strength (defense) to get upgrade on offense as the cupboard is pretty bare and to make the $$ work.

You keep repeating "Army stays", but you haven't once tried to justify the composite trade that keep getting posted, and if you're going to keep him you have to justify it. Just about every move Army made since EJ has been a bust. So we're just going to keep doing the same thing over and over again until it doesn't NOT work?

[Oaklandblue]

Getting rid of Armstrong is quite possibly the dumbest thing I have read in this thread.

Armstrong Stays.
Hitchcock Stays.

They don't need to do a lot to this roster. We can let almost all of the UFA's walk without hurting the team at all.

Our UFA's and their salaries this last year:
- Berglund - $3.25m

Some of the scoring UFA's that may or may not be available:
- Stastny - He won't be available...but I'd love to have him.
- Cammalleri - He may be available...and I'd like to nab him if he isn't asking for too much. He made $7 million last year...he's not worth that. If he would come down to $5 to $5.5, I'd be a buyer on him, but no more.
- Gaborik - He made $7.5 last season. He'll probably get $7 or so somewhere...I'm on the fence on him at that price. He's only two seasons removed from a 40 goal season...but we need sniper of a goal scorer, and he certainly fits that bill.
- Callahan - He made $4.87 last year. He's not exactly the sniper we're looking for, but he would be nice to have.
.

Berglund is an RFA and likely trade bait.

Callahan or preferably Stastny would solve the need for a second line center. You could then deal for a scoring winger. Likely need to deal from strength (defense) to get upgrade on offense as the cupboard is pretty bare and to make the $$ work.

You keep repeating "Army stays", but you haven't once tried to justify the composite trade that keep getting posted, and if you're going to keep him you have to justify it. Just about every move Army made since EJ has been a bust. So we're just going to keep doing the same thing over and over again until it doesn't NOT work?

Miller/Ott was done because Halak was constantly injured, seemed to have a personality conflict with the team and coach and we got tired of waiting. It costed us Carrier and a pick in a very shallow draft year, so I can see why we did it. It seemed like Army expected our top players to play like top players and didn't expect Osh and Backes to get injured. The last six games of the season pretty much state the case that it's not Army's fault. He made some bad trades and he made some good ones. I commented on this in detail in another thread, but I think Army has been OK. Not great, not terrible. Who would we get that would we would THINK would be a better GM, because it's easy to get someone else and have the team fall apart with more trades that seemed ok at the time but bit us back than to go the other way.

Great example would be the Eric Lindros trade. Who did that trade benefit? Sure wasn't the Flyers.

I would wonder how many great vs horrible trades the Blackhawks GM has made over the years. We're going to talk about us missing the opportunity for Toews, what about the Hawks letting go of players like Hasek and Belfour just off the top of my head? Sure you can say the Hawks made ENOUGH good decisions to win the Cup, but it's all a crapshoot. What looks great in another team's jersey can look like utter shit in yours. We have enough examples to prove the point and you can NOT blame a GM for not having hindsight.

[flyingnote38]

this is from St Louis Game time. By coincidence the poster is a relative of mine. The tables didn't transfer well, so you can read it here instead

http://www.stlouisgametime.com/2014/4/2 ... ice-failed
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
I wrote this Saturday night. Like Brad, I just knew. The fact that the Blues out shot the Hawks in Game 6 (as well as the series as a whole) just makes their over-estimation of Miller all the more obvious.


Mistakes in construction of the team.
There are two basic ways to win hockey games. One is to out-shoot your opponent. The other is to out-goaltend your opponent. The second may work at times but is not a recipe for sustained success (ask any Leafs fan). Unfortunately for the Blues, the best teams in shot differential are in the Western Conference. The road out of the Central Division certainly runs through Chicago. The road out of the Western Conference also goes through LA or San Jose. Looking at Shots Against, the Blues look pretty good.
Team SA NHL Rank
Los Angeles Kings
2150
2
St. Louis Blues
2163
3
Chicago Blackhawks
2229
4
San Jose Sharks
2282
6
Anaheim Ducks
2354
9
But Shots For shows the Blues in the bottom third of the league.
Team
SF
NHL Rank
San Jose Sharks
2851
1
Chicago Blackhawks
2717
3
Los Angeles Kings
2595
7
Anaheim Ducks
2569
8
St. Louis Blues
2403
22
Net Shots is positive, but the three teams above the Blues are the teams they would likely need to beat to advance to the SCF and the gap is a big one.
Team
Net Shots
NHL Rank
San Jose Sharks
569
1
Chicago Blackhawks
488
2
Los Angeles Kings
445
3
St. Louis Blues
240
5
Anaheim Ducks
215
7
Faced with this choice, the Front Office chose the wrong option. They went with the option that, over the long haul, doesn't work. But then they compounded their mistake.


Mistakes in evaluation of players.
Steve Ott was a terrible acquisition. Stewart may be maddeningly inconsistent but at least once in a while he made a positive contribution. Ott was relentlessly awful. Not only was he the worst player on the Blues but, by some metrics, down the stretch he was the worst player in the league. There are two possibilities behind the acquisition of Ott, neither of which makes me happy. One is that no one on the Blues scouted Ott. The other, which is probably worse, it that someone watched him play and said "That's our guy". Either way I think somebody ought to lose their job.
Bad enough to have chosen the out-goaltend option. In acquiring Ott, they also managed to make their offense worse and put more pressure on the goalie's performance.
Ryan Miller is another huge evaluation mistake. If you decide to go the better goaltender route your goalie has to be a lot better than the other team's goalie.
Goalie
Career ES Save Percentage
Ryan Miller
0.923
Jaroslav Halak
0.925
Corey Crawford
0.924
Anttii Niemi
0.924
Jonathan Quick
0.923
Jonas Hiller
0.927
People may think Ryan Miller LOOKS like a great goaltender. Unfortunately, he doesn't FUNCTION like a great goaltender. Miller has an economy of motion. He looks calm compared to other goalies. In his case, calm and composed doesn't keep the puck out of the net.
Given the gap in shot differentials between the Blues and the teams above them, Miller would have to be elite level (0.930 – 0.931) just to bring the odds of the Blues winning a series up to 50:50. Miller just isn't that good.
I knew that. I'm not Urpo Ylönen , the Goalie Whisperer, in some mountain cave in Finland. I'm just some guy with a laptop. If I knew it, then people in the Front Office, who are being paid to know these things, should know it too. They didn't.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

[Oaklandblue]

this is from St Louis Game time. By coincidence the poster is a relative of mine. The tables didn't transfer well, so you can read it here instead

http://www.stlouisgametime.com/2014/4/2 ... ice-failed
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
I wrote this Saturday night. Like Brad, I just knew. The fact that the Blues out shot the Hawks in Game 6 (as well as the series as a whole) just makes their over-estimation of Miller all the more obvious.


Mistakes in construction of the team.
There are two basic ways to win hockey games. One is to out-shoot your opponent. The other is to out-goaltend your opponent. The second may work at times but is not a recipe for sustained success (ask any Leafs fan). Unfortunately for the Blues, the best teams in shot differential are in the Western Conference. The road out of the Central Division certainly runs through Chicago. The road out of the Western Conference also goes through LA or San Jose. Looking at Shots Against, the Blues look pretty good.
Team SA NHL Rank
Los Angeles Kings
2150
2
St. Louis Blues
2163
3
Chicago Blackhawks
2229
4
San Jose Sharks
2282
6
Anaheim Ducks
2354
9
But Shots For shows the Blues in the bottom third of the league.
Team
SF
NHL Rank
San Jose Sharks
2851
1
Chicago Blackhawks
2717
3
Los Angeles Kings
2595
7
Anaheim Ducks
2569
8
St. Louis Blues
2403
22
Net Shots is positive, but the three teams above the Blues are the teams they would likely need to beat to advance to the SCF and the gap is a big one.
Team
Net Shots
NHL Rank
San Jose Sharks
569
1
Chicago Blackhawks
488
2
Los Angeles Kings
445
3
St. Louis Blues
240
5
Anaheim Ducks
215
7
Faced with this choice, the Front Office chose the wrong option. They went with the option that, over the long haul, doesn't work. But then they compounded their mistake.


Mistakes in evaluation of players.
Steve Ott was a terrible acquisition. Stewart may be maddeningly inconsistent but at least once in a while he made a positive contribution. Ott was relentlessly awful. Not only was he the worst player on the Blues but, by some metrics, down the stretch he was the worst player in the league. There are two possibilities behind the acquisition of Ott, neither of which makes me happy. One is that no one on the Blues scouted Ott. The other, which is probably worse, it that someone watched him play and said "That's our guy". Either way I think somebody ought to lose their job.
Bad enough to have chosen the out-goaltend option. In acquiring Ott, they also managed to make their offense worse and put more pressure on the goalie's performance.
Ryan Miller is another huge evaluation mistake. If you decide to go the better goaltender route your goalie has to be a lot better than the other team's goalie.
Goalie
Career ES Save Percentage
Ryan Miller
0.923
Jaroslav Halak
0.925
Corey Crawford
0.924
Anttii Niemi
0.924
Jonathan Quick
0.923
Jonas Hiller
0.927
People may think Ryan Miller LOOKS like a great goaltender. Unfortunately, he doesn't FUNCTION like a great goaltender. Miller has an economy of motion. He looks calm compared to other goalies. In his case, calm and composed doesn't keep the puck out of the net.
Given the gap in shot differentials between the Blues and the teams above them, Miller would have to be elite level (0.930 – 0.931) just to bring the odds of the Blues winning a series up to 50:50. Miller just isn't that good.
I knew that. I'm not Urpo Ylönen , the Goalie Whisperer, in some mountain cave in Finland. I'm just some guy with a laptop. If I knew it, then people in the Front Office, who are being paid to know these things, should know it too. They didn't.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Excellent post. Thank you for sharing.