offseason so far

[theohall]

Again, it's not a closed issue but I think there's a lot of whistling past the graveyard right above here.

Window means a period of having a realistically good chance at winning it all each season. Every year since Hitchcock's first full one, the Blues are projected as one of the most likely teams to win the cup by pretty much everyone who comments on such things. That will not last forever, obviously.

The Blues' farm is consistently rated in the bottom third of the league these days. You can check it out:

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/team-rankings/

http://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-team-pr ... -rankings/

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2621 ... ine/page/9

To be fair, I did come across one rosier outlook but even this puts the Blues in the middle of the pack:

http://www.thescore.com/news/1064617

And one has to be particularly optimistic about the forwards to see much impact there. I'd love for Thompson to be ready next season but everything I read describes him as a project.

Make no mistake about it: the Shattenkirk chatter is ALL about salary/cap issues. The Blues PP is, as currently constructed, more dependent on him than any other player. If there weren't salary cap constraints, he would be extended and the Blues would either enjoy excellent right-handed D depth or they would consider moving Parayko for the forward or premium left-handed D they need. This is normal, and while it's not rebuilding per se, combined with letting Backes and Oshie/Brouwer walk and the most significant signing being Perron is at least some kind of reload, and not one that has improved the team on paper.

So the Blues have one weak area based on those reports - the wings.

That's not one weak area--that's where 66.6% (mathematically not statistically) of a team's scoring comes from. And that's not at all accounting for the potential dip in scoring due to nobody on this team being able to check so much as a coat.

I can pretty much guarantee that won't be addressed solely by prospects moving forward with salary coming free when the over-paid players and veterans move on. Free agency/trades will play a role in the next 3 years.

Oh. So we only have to wait until 2020 for the cavalry to arrive? Sounds great...

Having to address one weak area with cap room coming free in the near future is a far cry from a contending window closing.

To sum up: having to deal with a toothless troop of wingers for the next 3 years with few options to bring in any upgrades from outside the system due to bad contacts seems to me like the definition of a closing window of opportunity.

So Tarasenko, Schwartz and Fabbri are toothless. Got it.. Replace the crap overpaid crap behind them to improve things.... isn't that what's supposed to happen, it just can't all happen at once??

[cardsfan04]

I would genuinely have no problem if they flipped Shattenkirk for prospects on the wing. Would it be nice to get an NHL ready player? Sure, but it's not a necessity.

I'd be ok with that too. I care about getting fair value for him more than how that value is packaged. It's kinda semantics about whether we're rebuilding or restocking or whatever we're going to call it. We're transitioning though for sure. I expect our window to remain open for awhile because our current core has lots of talent and is rather young. I expect a slightly down year upcoming, but if we can get a good piece to make us better now, I'm good with that. If it's a piece that helps us in a few years as guys like Parayko, Fabbri are entering their prime (and guys like Schwartz, Pietro, Tarasenko are also in their core), that's good too. I just want good value when we trade him.

[evil roy]

So Tarasenko, Schwartz and Fabbri are toothless. Got it.. Replace the crap overpaid crap behind them to improve things.... isn't that what's supposed to happen, it just can't all happen at once??

Tarasenko scoring is a given. Schwartz is a 25 goal guys when he's healthy. AFAIC, the jury is still out on Fabbri.

It's not so much that I myself think this team is "toothless", I was just responding to you when you called the wings an area of weakness--which seemed to me to be a pretty big area. I DO have concerns about effectiveness of the players you mentioned given the lack of any physicality on the top two lines but I guess we'll just have to wait and see. And I DO have concerns about how hamstrung we are due to contacts for Bouwmeester, Berglund, and Stastny (though Stastny did seem okay at the time)

[theohall]

Consider the 2 Cup Finalists last season:

Goals Scored by Forwards
San Jose
Pavelski 38
Marleau 25
Hertl 21
Ward 21

Pittsburgh forwards
Crosby 36
Malkin 27
Kessel 26
Hornqvist 22

So if Cup Finalists only need one guy to score more than 30 goals in a season, why do the Blues suddenly need more than one guy to score 30 in a season?

If Schwartz, Fabbri, and Steen can all manage to have 20+ goal seasons and Tarasenko does what he does, the Blues would have similar scoring from their top 4 forwards as the Cup Finalists.

[theohall]

Just because, I did some further digging and looked at forward scoring for all 16 playoff teams.


Teams with 30+ goal scorers from Forwards:
3 - Dallas
2 - Chicago, Nashville, Tampa
1 - Philadelphia, NY Islanders, Pittsburgh, Washington, San Jose, LA, Anaheim, St Louis
0 - Minnesota, Florida, Detroit, NY Rangers

Teams with 20+ goal scorers from Forwards (including the 30+ guys listed above)
6 - Washington
5 - Florida, NY Rangers
4 - Everyone else not listed in the others
3 - Philadelphia, Minnesota
2 - Tampa, Detroit, St Louis

And we are worried about replacing Backes (21) and Brouwer (18)?? The Blues as a team were tied with the other 2 teams who had the fewest 20 goal scorers among forwards and one of them (Tampa) both guys scored 30+

The Blues should have 3 20 goal guys (Fabbri, Schwartz, Steen) and a 30 goal guy (Tarasenko) this season barring injuries. Let's dig a little further.

Let's look at 2 things Goals/minute and Goals/Game

Blues Top 10 Forwards in Goals/Minute (minimum 15 games played - Rattie and Havlat screw this up otherwise)

Vladimir Tarasenko 0.027
Robby Fabbri 0.019
Patrik Berglund 0.015
Jaden Schwartz 0.014
David Backes 0.014
Troy Brouwer 0.013
Alex Steen 0.012
Kyle Brodziak 0.009
Paul Stastny 0.008
Scottie Upshall 0.008

So Goals/Minute, the Blues are replacing 2nd/3rd line scoring which Perron and Rattie should provide. A healthy Schwartz and (can't believe I'm typing this) a healthy Berglund (who is also playing for his next contract) were producing more goals/minute than Backes and Brouwer. A slight improvement from Fabbri, which should be expected and this big scoring concern doesn't seem near as big.

Aside - Rattie had a ridiculous Goals/Minute at .033 and goals/game at .031 which puts him top 2 (1st and 2nd, respectively) in both rankings. Granted, those will come down with more regular play assuming he a) makes the roster and b) actually gets better than 4th line ice time.

Goals/Game from Forwards (same 15 game minimum):

Vladimir Tarasenko 0.50
David Backes 0.27
Alex Steen 0.25
Robby Fabbri 0.25
Jaden Schwartz 0.24
Patrik Berglund 0.24
Troy Brouwer 0.22
Paul Stastny 0.16
Jori Lehtera 0.11
Kyle Brodziak 0.09

And Backes is now relevant, but one also has to take into account how many goals Berglund and Schwartz would provide in an 82 game season vice what they provided last year in shortened seasons. It's still the same scenario overall.... expected improvement from Fabbri, Schwartz and Steen perform historically and a surprise would be if Berglund can play a full season at a 20 goal pace, which could happen with him playing for a contract. That would put the Blues with 5 20+ goal scorers which only 3 playoff teams had last season and doesn't even include input from Perron or Rattie.

I'm not seeing the gloom and doom about scoring after actually looking at the darn numbers. Hitchcock and Yeo are going to have to rely on someone else to take the minutes Backes played. That's more of a concern than scoring, but could be a huge positive if a more offensive minded player starts getting more ice time.

[Oaklandblue]

Just because, I did some further digging and looked at forward scoring for all 16 playoff teams.


Teams with 30+ goal scorers from Forwards:
3 - Dallas
2 - Chicago, Nashville, Tampa
1 - Philadelphia, NY Islanders, Pittsburgh, Washington, San Jose, LA, Anaheim, St Louis
0 - Minnesota, Florida, Detroit, NY Rangers

Teams with 20+ goal scorers from Forwards (including the 30+ guys listed above)
6 - Washington
5 - Florida, NY Rangers
4 - Everyone else not listed in the others
3 - Philadelphia, Minnesota
2 - Tampa, Detroit, St Louis

And we are worried about replacing Backes (21) and Brouwer (18)?? The Blues as a team were tied with the other 2 teams who had the fewest 20 goal scorers among forwards and one of them (Tampa) both guys scored 30+

The Blues should have 3 20 goal guys (Fabbri, Schwartz, Steen) and a 30 goal guy (Tarasenko) this season barring injuries. Let's dig a little further.

Let's look at 2 things Goals/minute and Goals/Game

Blues Top 10 Forwards in Goals/Minute (minimum 15 games played - Rattie and Havlat screw this up otherwise)

Vladimir Tarasenko 0.027
Robby Fabbri 0.019
Patrik Berglund 0.015
Jaden Schwartz 0.014
David Backes 0.014
Troy Brouwer 0.013
Alex Steen 0.012
Kyle Brodziak 0.009
Paul Stastny 0.008
Scottie Upshall 0.008

So Goals/Minute, the Blues are replacing 2nd/3rd line scoring which Perron and Rattie should provide. A healthy Schwartz and (can't believe I'm typing this) a healthy Berglund (who is also playing for his next contract) were producing more goals/minute than Backes and Brouwer. A slight improvement from Fabbri, which should be expected and this big scoring concern doesn't seem near as big.

Aside - Rattie had a ridiculous Goals/Minute at .033 and goals/game at .031 which puts him top 2 (1st and 2nd, respectively) in both rankings. Granted, those will come down with more regular play assuming he a) makes the roster and b) actually gets better than 4th line ice time.

Goals/Game from Forwards (same 15 game minimum):

Vladimir Tarasenko 0.50
David Backes 0.27
Alex Steen 0.25
Robby Fabbri 0.25
Jaden Schwartz 0.24
Patrik Berglund 0.24
Troy Brouwer 0.22
Paul Stastny 0.16
Jori Lehtera 0.11
Kyle Brodziak 0.09

And Backes is now relevant, but one also has to take into account how many goals Berglund and Schwartz would provide in an 82 game season vice what they provided last year in shortened seasons. It's still the same scenario overall.... expected improvement from Fabbri, Schwartz and Steen perform historically and a surprise would be if Berglund can play a full season at a 20 goal pace, which could happen with him playing for a contract. That would put the Blues with 5 20+ goal scorers which only 3 playoff teams had last season and doesn't even include input from Perron or Rattie.

I'm not seeing the gloom and doom about scoring after actually looking at the darn numbers. Hitchcock and Yeo are going to have to rely on someone else to take the minutes Backes played. That's more of a concern than scoring, but could be a huge positive if a more offensive minded player starts getting more ice time.

Do these numbers again but do them for =Playoff= offense performance. This team has absolutely sucked, sucked, sucked on Playoff Offense that it's sickening and to this day is still overlooked. Without solid, reliable and powerful Offense that can post numbers in the post-season, this team doesn't make it out of Round 1 (Unless a Goaltender puts this team on their back and carries and Jake Allen ain't that guy). Losing Backes (14p playoff) and Brouwer (13p playoff) with only Perron being added in (3p playoff) IS a major loss and a MAJOR cause of concern.

Berglund's, btw, is 9p. He stays healthy, he remains a contributor in the playoffs and that's money in the bank. Screw the regular season, don't we have enough of those banners? If a player can't post points in the playoffs, we shouldn't want them.

[glen a richter]

If the Blues win the Cup with Allen in goal, will all you folks be saying it was in spite of him? Have you already pre-determined that? Because it sure seems like it. Elliott's gone. It is what it is, it's time to get over it.

[Kremzeek]

I think it is too early to say the season is lost, but we do have a weaker team physically. I think THE major gamble is Armstrong is relying on Sobokta arriving and I don't think that's going to happen. Army said no trade, so Sobo said I'll pull you by the tip of your friend Dick every year until I retire . Jokes on Army. Hope I'm wrong. He should've had a plan B in place. And that plan B, if worthwhile, would have been trade-able if Sobo did actually show up .

[Oaklandblue]

If the Blues win the Cup with Allen in goal, will all you folks be saying it was in spite of him? Have you already pre-determined that?

I can guarantee it. Read on to find out why.

Elliott's gone. It is what it is, it's time to get over it.

So is Glenn Hall and Mike Liut and Curtis Joseph. None of them won a Cup either, because the offense didn't come through in the playoffs, which was well, kind of my point above if you set aside your absolute love for a goaltender who has choked in the playoffs on every level of his career. Seriously, look it up. You want to talk about our future in goal, his name is Husso, not Allen. You can book that, too.

Just shows where most Blues fans and the Management's priorities are at. Instead of keeping the team together, you allow Backes AND Brouwer to leave, replace him with Perron of all people and pray that Sobotka decides to come back. Management has guranteed with our coaching that the next good chunk of a decade will be wasted on mediocre strategy that doesn't work with the same results we've seen. I'm waiting for us to trade Shattenkirk for picks "For the future" when our time and window is stuck in now.

We are poor when it comes to bringing Playoff producing Offense to the table and heck, I'll add in the regular season too, as it stands, we have stepped down so much that, if players like Fabbri, Tank and Schwartz aren't running full-gun, in the division we are in, we might not even make the playoffs. It is feasible and possible, but no, we're going to concern ourselves with how Jake Allen is being hated on. Please.

[glen a richter]

Husso IS the future, he's also not here yet. So in the meantime, what do we do? Boo Allen out of town the first time he lets a goal in?

[theohall]

Just because, I did some further digging and looked at forward scoring for all 16 playoff teams.


Teams with 30+ goal scorers from Forwards:
3 - Dallas
2 - Chicago, Nashville, Tampa
1 - Philadelphia, NY Islanders, Pittsburgh, Washington, San Jose, LA, Anaheim, St Louis
0 - Minnesota, Florida, Detroit, NY Rangers

Teams with 20+ goal scorers from Forwards (including the 30+ guys listed above)
6 - Washington
5 - Florida, NY Rangers
4 - Everyone else not listed in the others
3 - Philadelphia, Minnesota
2 - Tampa, Detroit, St Louis

And we are worried about replacing Backes (21) and Brouwer (18)?? The Blues as a team were tied with the other 2 teams who had the fewest 20 goal scorers among forwards and one of them (Tampa) both guys scored 30+

The Blues should have 3 20 goal guys (Fabbri, Schwartz, Steen) and a 30 goal guy (Tarasenko) this season barring injuries. Let's dig a little further.

Let's look at 2 things Goals/minute and Goals/Game

Blues Top 10 Forwards in Goals/Minute (minimum 15 games played - Rattie and Havlat screw this up otherwise)

Vladimir Tarasenko 0.027
Robby Fabbri 0.019
Patrik Berglund 0.015
Jaden Schwartz 0.014
David Backes 0.014
Troy Brouwer 0.013
Alex Steen 0.012
Kyle Brodziak 0.009
Paul Stastny 0.008
Scottie Upshall 0.008

So Goals/Minute, the Blues are replacing 2nd/3rd line scoring which Perron and Rattie should provide. A healthy Schwartz and (can't believe I'm typing this) a healthy Berglund (who is also playing for his next contract) were producing more goals/minute than Backes and Brouwer. A slight improvement from Fabbri, which should be expected and this big scoring concern doesn't seem near as big.

Aside - Rattie had a ridiculous Goals/Minute at .033 and goals/game at .031 which puts him top 2 (1st and 2nd, respectively) in both rankings. Granted, those will come down with more regular play assuming he a) makes the roster and b) actually gets better than 4th line ice time.

Goals/Game from Forwards (same 15 game minimum):

Vladimir Tarasenko 0.50
David Backes 0.27
Alex Steen 0.25
Robby Fabbri 0.25
Jaden Schwartz 0.24
Patrik Berglund 0.24
Troy Brouwer 0.22
Paul Stastny 0.16
Jori Lehtera 0.11
Kyle Brodziak 0.09

And Backes is now relevant, but one also has to take into account how many goals Berglund and Schwartz would provide in an 82 game season vice what they provided last year in shortened seasons. It's still the same scenario overall.... expected improvement from Fabbri, Schwartz and Steen perform historically and a surprise would be if Berglund can play a full season at a 20 goal pace, which could happen with him playing for a contract. That would put the Blues with 5 20+ goal scorers which only 3 playoff teams had last season and doesn't even include input from Perron or Rattie.

I'm not seeing the gloom and doom about scoring after actually looking at the darn numbers. Hitchcock and Yeo are going to have to rely on someone else to take the minutes Backes played. That's more of a concern than scoring, but could be a huge positive if a more offensive minded player starts getting more ice time.

Do these numbers again but do them for =Playoff= offense performance. This team has absolutely sucked, sucked, sucked on Playoff Offense that it's sickening and to this day is still overlooked. Without solid, reliable and powerful Offense that can post numbers in the post-season, this team doesn't make it out of Round 1 (Unless a Goaltender puts this team on their back and carries and Jake Allen ain't that guy). Losing Backes (14p playoff) and Brouwer (13p playoff) with only Perron being added in (3p playoff) IS a major loss and a MAJOR cause of concern.

Berglund's, btw, is 9p. He stays healthy, he remains a contributor in the playoffs and that's money in the bank. Screw the regular season, don't we have enough of those banners? If a player can't post points in the playoffs, we shouldn't want them.

Then there are a whole bunch of teams in trouble in the playoffs following that logic. As Pietrangelo is saying, now it's time for the younger players to step up. They have the experience of reaching the conference finals already, that almost no one on the team had prior.

[theohall]

An Allen...

How many times has he played in those playoff situations? What is it - one time each? How many other goalies have not succeeded their first times in playoff situations, but proved otherwise the next time they had the opportunity. Allen will be fine, IMO. Writing the season off before it's started is ridiculous. Remember that goalie named Bishop the Blues gave up on?? He's gotten the Lightning to a Stanley Cup Final and Conference Final. What was Bishop's playoff experience prior?? Look that up. Absolutely ludicrous attitude from some.

We won't know until Allen gets the chance more than once, and not just in "relief" roles, or when the Blues offense completely dries up like it did vs Minnesota even with David Backes.

And not re-signing Backes is because they don't want to be in cap hell when Backes is 35 and 36 and not as effective a player, but being paid like he is. Brouwer had an exceptional season which he's never had before. Will he repeat that performance? Who knows?? Most experts feel Calgary over-paid and don't see Brouwer repeating what he did this past season.

At what point do the Blues move on from older veterans and bring up prospects who aren't getting opportunities? Looks like they made that decision when it comes to the forward positions.

[Oaklandblue]

An Allen...

How many times has he played in those playoff situations? What is it - one time each? How many other goalies have not succeeded their first times in playoff situations, but proved otherwise the next time they had the opportunity. Allen will be fine, IMO. Writing the season off before it's started is ridiculous. Remember that goalie named Bishop the Blues gave up on?? He's gotten the Lightning to a Stanley Cup Final and Conference Final. What was Bishop's playoff experience prior?? Look that up. Absolutely ludicrous attitude from some.

We won't know until Allen gets the chance more than once, and not just in "relief" roles, or when the Blues offense completely dries up like it did vs Minnesota even with David Backes.

And not re-signing Backes is because they don't want to be in cap hell when Backes is 35 and 36 and not as effective a player, but being paid like he is. Brouwer had an exceptional season which he's never had before. Will he repeat that performance? Who knows?? Most experts feel Calgary over-paid and don't see Brouwer repeating what he did this past season.

At what point do the Blues move on from older veterans and bring up prospects who aren't getting opportunities? Looks like they made that decision when it comes to the forward positions.

The Sharks didn't give up on theirs older players and they made it to the Finals. They altered their strategy and it paid off big time for them.

As for Jake, you guys are sticking up for a variable that even you guys can't predict, so don't play this "He could be great" nonsense. It can go either way and I am speaking from past performance. Regular season just gets you in the playoffs and most of you, like management, have become comfortable with just that. I'm not.

The Blues offense dries up regularly in the playoffs. Historically, Offense has been an issue that has, to this day, not been dealt with. Management looks at Defense systems which is enough to get you into the playoffs if you have some talent. In the playoffs, you're pretty much dead and Jake Allen is not that goaltender who can carry. Can he do it next year? I'll say no and base it off past performance in the minors and against the Wild, simple as that. He could carry the team and win the Vezina in the regular season, sure, but can he take the team to the promised land? I ain't seeing it unless Offense magically appears like mad and our offense has gotten worse, not better.

And don't get me started with management jumping the gun and hiring Yeo. We came off the WCF, management should have used it as a statement and gotten in a real coach who can take the team the rest of the way, not Yeo.

We didn't give up on Bishop, where did you get that nonsense from? We didn't have room for him, or am I the only person who remembers that? And as for Bishop.... I'd take him over Allen seven days a week and most of you would too, so let's not kid ourselves here.

[glen a richter]

Repeatedly stating the fact that our offense disappears in the playoffs and concurrently pre-blaming a possible playoff failure on the goalie based on a very limited history is ludicrous. We all know why this team can't win in the playoffs, last season's fluke run nonwithstanding. And it's not the goalies fault. You think if we had Braden Holtby, Hank Lundqvist or Jon Quick we'd be any better off?

[Oaklandblue]

Repeatedly stating the fact that our offense disappears in the playoffs and concurrently pre-blaming a possible playoff failure on the goalie based on a very limited history is ludicrous. We all know why this team can't win in the playoffs, last season's fluke run nonwithstanding. And it's not the goalies fault. You think if we had Braden Holtby, Hank Lundqvist or Jon Quick we'd be any better off?

We had someone like that and we traded him off, so I'd say no. And if you actually read my posts like you think you have, you'd discover that, as discerning as I am to Jake Allen, I ain't blaming him for the team's playoff failure in any of my posts, only if you're relying on him alone in the playoffs, you're screwed. He can't carry like a Hank, Braden, Quick or even an Elliott in the playoffs and even if he did, even if he pulled a .920 out of himself in the playoffs, which is entirely possibly, the team's offense and management would sink him... fast. Like damn near every other goalie we've had, again, like I said in an earlier post.

[Toasted Oates]

I can't believe you guys are still fighting about the goalies when there are more pressing matters within the organization.

On January 31st vs the Jets they're giving away 1967 jerseys. Which would be cool except they will be "mystery players" with Bob Plager, Federko, Sutter, Hull, MacInnis, and Pronger as options.

Other than Plager, of course, none of those other guys ever wore the '67 sweater! They're going to pass out jersey foul after jersey foul.

Jake Allen/Brian Elliott, Sobotka/Backes/Brouwer, Mike Yeo be damned. This must be addressed.

[glen a richter]

I can't believe we're fighting over Jake Allen's playoff record. Last time I checked not a damn goalie in Blues history including Brian Frikken Elliott ever backstopped this team to a Cup. Just a friendly reminder that our problems have always run deeper than goaltending.

[Oaklandblue]

I can't believe we're fighting over Jake Allen's playoff record. Last time I checked not a damn goalie in Blues history including Brian Frikken Elliott ever backstopped this team to a Cup. Just a friendly reminder that our problems have always run deeper than goaltending.

Just a friendly reminder that you need glasses because if you didn't, you'd kind of notice I said that same thing in posts BEFORE yours.

The person fighting here is you. Pull up a stat that proves that to this point TODAY, that Jake Allen has led a team, any team, anywhere. Please.

The person with a problem here, is you. You don't like Brian Elliott and that's cool, if you notice, I ain't arguing your dislike for him, whether he's here or gone. But to sit here and assume that Jake Allen is going to lead this team in the playoffs on his own, based on past statistics, is pretty silly.

This quote is my favorite btw:

Just a friendly reminder that our problems have always run deeper than goaltending.

Saying this pretty much kills your argument because that's been my argument. Quit being so butthurt because I talk about your boy Jake. He your son or something?

[Oaklandblue]

I can't believe you guys are still fighting about the goalies when there are more pressing matters within the organization.

On January 31st vs the Jets they're giving away 1967 jerseys. Which would be cool except they will be "mystery players" with Bob Plager, Federko, Sutter, Hull, MacInnis, and Pronger as options.

Other than Plager, of course, none of those other guys ever wore the '67 sweater! They're going to pass out jersey foul after jersey foul.

Jake Allen/Brian Elliott, Sobotka/Backes/Brouwer, Mike Yeo be damned. This must be addressed.

I'm more upset that Wick isn't on that list.

[theohall]

We didn't give up on Bishop, where did you get that nonsense from? We didn't have room for him, or am I the only person who remembers that? And as for Bishop.... I'd take him over Allen seven days a week and most of you would too, so let's not kid ourselves here.

Not having room for someone, instead of making room for someone, is giving up on them over someone else. They kept Halak and Elliott over Bishop, even though management clearly showed no confidence in Elliott at all. That's giving up on someone for someone management doesn't even have confidence in. "Not having room" Because they signed Elliott and had Halak. They didn't even need to sign Elliott considering Bishop was already part of the Blues organization and had game experience before Elliott ever joined the organization. This is the definition of "giving up" on someone and signing someone else to take their role.