THE OFFICIAL POLITICS THREAD

[cardsfan04]

Yikes. What the hell will happen now? In Sweden we're in shock...at work today there was such a weird feeling. Everyone walked around in some kind of bubble, not sure what to think. What are your thoughts?

The sun will come up tomorrow - that's what will happen and we'll be fine. I'm very happy about the outcome - this was an election about the lesser of 2 evils and who you didn't like more. Trump, while offensive in his comments, is not going to start launching nuclear weapons or set up concentration camps as the propagandists like to scare people with. Hillary is corrupt and people have had enough of her corruption. This election was also a total repudiation of Obama and his policies - people are fed up. I think it's funny though that people in Sweden would even care about the US election.

I agree with the gist of this. But, I don't think this was a repudiation of Obama. Obama's approval rating is over 55%, much higher than either of the candidates. Obamacare has some issues, especially in regard to the rate hikes we're about to see. But, I don't think this election is the result of repudiating the policies of a president that most of the country approves of.

Also, I was mostly never concerned about him doing some of the divisive things he mentioned. And, I think that's true of most people that don't support him. I mean, we're not totally clueless. I didn't reject him out of fear of him accomplishing those things. I rejected him because the world view he has presented for 15 months doesn't remotely align with mine. Take the muslim ban for example. There was no way that was ever going to happen. I'm well aware of that. But, the fact that he thought that was a way to gain support is a window into how he thinks and views things. That's what I'm rejecting, not the possibility of him actually doing these things. That's a really important distinction.

[Kerfuffle]

Why Hillary Lost
===========
1) The Comey Letter - the corruption that people didn't like but tolerated reached a tipping point and people had enough at this point. Bleachbit and hammers used to destroy hard drives, the Attorney General tipping off Bill on the status of the investigation, etc.
2) Missed the Mark on Advertising - Hillary's ads were good but were all single focused on pointing out bad things Trump said. It was over and over and people became immune to it - people already agreed he's a jerk - it was not enough to win on. She needed ads that promoted policy.
3) Clinton Foundation - this kind of goes with #1 but the fraud involved with this supposed 'charity' was unnerving. Hearing that Chelsea was withdrawing funds from this to pay for her wedding was sickening. There were also plenty of examples of Bill giving political favors in return for donations to the Foundation which the family then used as their personal checking account.
4) Affordable Care Act - people saw their premium bills skyrocket and were understandably ticked about it
5) Wikileaks - these were very revealing and hurt her campaign. The entitlement and arrogance of the DNC to sabotage Bernie to give her a clear path to the Presidency was upsetting.
6) Having no immigration plan - even ultra-liberal Chris Matthews was ripping her yesterday and the Dems as needing to rethink illegal immigration cause people are tired of paying for illegals.

Overall though it was the level of corruption on multiple fronts that eventually killed her chance to win.

[Kerfuffle]

But, I don't think this was a repudiation of Obama. Obama's approval rating is over 55%, much higher than either of the candidates. Obamacare has some issues, especially in regard to the rate hikes we're about to see. But, I don't think this election is the result of repudiating the policies of a president that most of the country approves of.

I do believe this was a total repudiation of Obama and his policies. His approval rating was 42% for most of the past 3 years and only spiked during this election because both candidates were so horrible. I do believe history will show Obama as our worst president ever - but he'll always be a hero to the African community because he was the first to reach the Presidency so for that alone his numbers will be higher. Here's some examples on what people are rejecting:

1) all of the illegal executive orders he signed.
2) wanting amnesty and no security of our border.
3) praising BlackLivesMatter in speeches even though they parade around calling for police to be killed.
4) refusing to say the words 'Islamic terrorism'
5) Affordable Care Act - it doesn't work and will implode on its own. But Trump can expedite it.
6) Supreme Court - we don't more activist judges legislating their agenda from the bench. Trump will be a conservative and put a conservative on the bench - we need another Sam Alito
7) Bringing Syrian refuges to the United States. I'm okay helping them but provide the assistance in their own country. We cannot just resettle everyone in America on the taxpayer dime
National Anthem handling - people are infuriated about folks kneeling for the national anthem. And Obama sympathizing with them just shows his support for it. Time to treat our flag and country with respect - stand!
Transgender movement - Obama dictating that schools must adhere to his bathroom guidelines of have their funding pulled is ridiculous.

[cardsfan04]

Why Hillary Lost
===========
1) The Comey Letter - the corruption that people didn't like but tolerated reached a tipping point and people had enough at this point. Bleachbit and hammers used to destroy hard drives, the Attorney General tipping off Bill on the status of the investigation, etc.
2) Missed the Mark on Advertising - Hillary's ads were good but were all single focused on pointing out bad things Trump said. It was over and over and people became immune to it - people already agreed he's a jerk - it was not enough to win on. She needed ads that promoted policy.
3) Clinton Foundation - this kind of goes with #1 but the fraud involved with this supposed 'charity' was unnerving. Hearing that Chelsea was withdrawing funds from this to pay for her wedding was sickening. There were also plenty of examples of Bill giving political favors in return for donations to the Foundation which the family then used as their personal checking account.
4) Affordable Care Act - people saw their premium bills skyrocket and were understandably ticked about it
5) Wikileaks - these were very revealing and hurt her campaign. The entitlement and arrogance of the DNC to sabotage Bernie to give her a clear path to the Presidency was upsetting.
6) Having no immigration plan - even ultra-liberal Chris Matthews was ripping her yesterday and the Dems as needing to rethink illegal immigration cause people are tired of paying for illegals.

Overall though it was the level of corruption on multiple fronts that eventually killed her chance to win.

Agreed, but I'm going to add another one. Voter turnout. She won the popular vote and lost several states by narrow margins. If she had generated the enthusiasm that Obama did, we might be talking about how she narrowly pulled out some of these states to win a close election. Michael Moore predicted this in June and I dismissed it. But, what he said would happen (Trump winning the rust belt and unenthusiastic electorate) happened in about the exact way that he said that it would.

[cardsfan04]

But, I don't think this was a repudiation of Obama. Obama's approval rating is over 55%, much higher than either of the candidates. Obamacare has some issues, especially in regard to the rate hikes we're about to see. But, I don't think this election is the result of repudiating the policies of a president that most of the country approves of.

I do believe this was a total repudiation of Obama and his policies. His approval rating was 42% for most of the past 3 years and only spiked during this election because both candidates were so horrible. I do believe history will show Obama as our worst president ever - but he'll always be a hero to the African community because he was the first to reach the Presidency so for that alone his numbers will be higher. Here's some examples on what people are rejecting:

1) all of the illegal executive orders he signed.
2) wanting amnesty and no security of our border.
3) praising BlackLivesMatter in speeches even though they parade around calling for police to be killed.
4) refusing to say the words 'Islamic terrorism'
5) Affordable Care Act - it doesn't work and will implode on its own. But Trump can expedite it.
6) Supreme Court - we don't more activist judges legislating their agenda from the bench. Trump will be a conservative and put a conservative on the bench - we need another Sam Alito
7) Bringing Syrian refuges to the United States. I'm okay helping them but provide the assistance in their own country. We cannot just resettle everyone in America on the taxpayer dime
National Anthem handling - people are infuriated about folks kneeling for the national anthem. And Obama sympathizing with them just shows his support for it. Time to treat our flag and country with respect - stand!
Transgender movement - Obama dictating that schools must adhere to his bathroom guidelines of have their funding pulled is ridiculous.

I disagree with most of your list, but I get that there are multiple reasonable ways to look at it. I think you actually missed a couple of criticisms.

1. While the economy has stabilized, it hasn't grown very fast under him. Part of that is that it needed to stabilize before growing, but we should be growing more quickly than we are. That's starting to change (salary increases are growing faster today than earlier in his presidency), but it has been slow.

2. The country is more divided today than 8 years ago. That's not all on him, but that's a major failure of any presidency.

But, while I bet that his approval rating has improved as a result of the election, I'm not sure that's all of it. Part of this is a function of disagreeing with most of your list, but I approve of the job Obama is doing. And while there are valid criticisms of him, there are also a lot of reasons people like him other than not being Trump/Hillary.

[Kerfuffle]

I forgot another big reason why Hillary lost --> Gary Johnson. He played the role of Ralph Nader in this year's election. If he's not in the race the majority of those votes for him in Florida go to Hillary and it's all over. So by jumping in the race to prevent Trump from winning what really happened is he took votes away from Hillary and caused her defeat.

[glen a richter]

I voted for Johnson, which was a completely irrelevant vote in bright blue New York. Had I lived in a swing state, I probably would have voted differently.

The reason Hillary lost (and I will maintain forever that Bernie would have won) is that the American voters basically picked the devil they don't know over the devil they do.

What people don't really realize is that there's merit to bits and pieces of both sides, and if we got down to the business of identifying and implementing the ideas on both sides that make 21st century sense, we'd be in great shape. Gary Johnson said that most Americans are Libertarian and just don't know it... I agree with that. Most people, except the most devoutly religious people in the country, couldn't care less if two gay people got married (socially liberal) and most people think they get taxed way too much (fiscally conservative). Trump mastered the art of appealing heavily to the far right while also throwing a bone or two to the left (such as praising the gay speaker at the Republican convention) while Hillary didn't really offer anything new. She said she'd tweak this, tweak that, but the voters just saw 4 more years of guaranteed gridlock vs. 4 years of potentially no gridlock. Thus, the devil you know is less appealing, in this case, than the devil you don't know.

If I'm the DNC, here's my plan for the next 4 years: Invest heavily in any state that was within 5 points but went red: Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia. Don't worry so much about Virginia, they seem to be blue for a while because of the northern part. Also, I'm investing heavily in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin because there's no worldly reason those three states should be lost to the Republicans forever.

If I'm the RNC, I'm investing heavily in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin because there's opportunity to make them redder. I'm also investing in North Carolina and Arizona because those states can flip easy and I don't want that to happen, and I'm not especially worried about Georgia.

I also take some amount of blame here. The last time I voted for the Libertarian candidate was 2000 (Harry Browne) in a year which Al Gore lost the electoral vote but won the popular vote. This time, same outcome.

[cardsfan04]

I voted for Johnson, which was a completely irrelevant vote in bright blue New York. Had I lived in a swing state, I probably would have voted differently.

The reason Hillary lost (and I will maintain forever that Bernie would have won) is that the American voters basically picked the devil they don't know over the devil they do.

What people don't really realize is that there's merit to bits and pieces of both sides, and if we got down to the business of identifying and implementing the ideas on both sides that make 21st century sense, we'd be in great shape. Gary Johnson said that most Americans are Libertarian and just don't know it... I agree with that. Most people, except the most devoutly religious people in the country, couldn't care less if two gay people got married (socially liberal) and most people think they get taxed way too much (fiscally conservative). Trump mastered the art of appealing heavily to the far right while also throwing a bone or two to the left (such as praising the gay speaker at the Republican convention) while Hillary didn't really offer anything new. She said she'd tweak this, tweak that, but the voters just saw 4 more years of guaranteed gridlock vs. 4 years of potentially no gridlock. Thus, the devil you know is less appealing, in this case, than the devil you don't know.

If I'm the DNC, here's my plan for the next 4 years: Invest heavily in any state that was within 5 points but went red: Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia. Don't worry so much about Virginia, they seem to be blue for a while because of the northern part. Also, I'm investing heavily in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin because there's no worldly reason those three states should be lost to the Republicans forever.

If I'm the RNC, I'm investing heavily in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin because there's opportunity to make them redder. I'm also investing in North Carolina and Arizona because those states can flip easy and I don't want that to happen, and I'm not especially worried about Georgia.

I also take some amount of blame here. The last time I voted for the Libertarian candidate was 2000 (Harry Browne) in a year which Al Gore lost the electoral vote but won the popular vote. This time, same outcome.

I agree with all of this, especially the bolded. Hillary lost because people don't like or trust her. And, this chart really illustrates it perfectly. Republican turnout remained rather constant. Democratic turnout plummeted. People aren't excited about Hillary, because of course they aren't. You didn't see people voting against her or there would be a spike for the Republican vote total. Instead, you see people unenthusiastic to vote for her that just stayed home.

[glen a richter]

I was willing to give Trump a chance because I'm not one of those folks who will just automatically dismiss a guy because of the letter after their name, but man oh man... he's not even sworn in yet and every decision he's made has been atrocious. His slogan shouldn't have been make America great again, it should have been make America white again. Apartheid can't be far behind.

[Toasted Oates]

This is shaping up to be a ginormous dumpster fire of a presidency.

- Steve Bannon, a man with no redeemable qualities other than he served in the military, will be in Trump's ear at all times. I mean NO redeemable qualities.

- Rudy Giuliani is being considered for Sec of State....enough said.

- Reports are saying security clearance has been requested for the Trump kids. They're running the family business in his stead, a worldwide operation. He hasn't released his tax returns. Conflict of interest?

- Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent and a very experienced guy in matters of intelligence, is no longer with the Trump transition team. Did he quit or was he removed? Either way, not a good look.

- Mike Pence is trying to hide his private e mails in an Indiana court battle? Ironic.

Look, I initially thought the Democrats'/Liberal America's tears were hilariously over dramatic in the days following the election. And hell, Trump seemed to handle his victory pretty well early on. This "train" has started to derail, though.

Paul Ryan had a smile on his face today, boasting of a "new dawn." I suspect he won't be smiling for long.

[cardsfan04]

Same thoughts as you guys. I want to give him a chance and think it's important that everybody, left and right alike, do too. He's making it hard though.

-Bannon was the big one for me. Bringing him into the administration doesn't help unite the country.

-His tax plan concerns me. It's too early to have a real firm opinion, but I don't get the impression that he will be cutting spending. Yet he's cutting taxes across the board. That seems like a recipe for increasing the deficit. Like I said, too early to know how it will work, but I have a bad first impression.

[glen a richter]

As a public educator, the concept of Michelle Rhee or Eva Moskowitz as secretary of education is the most frightening prospect. I may as well just resign myself to the reality that I'll be forced into calling it a career 19 years earlier than planned.

[cardsfan04]

I don't know who this person is, but she sums it up rather perfectly.
https://twitter.com/mollyknefel/status/798306142145355776

[Kerfuffle]

Sorry guys but I feel just the opposite here. He's putting together his cabinet and we're only a week past since the election ended so I don't see how anyone can say that a disaster has started or that all his decisions have been bad. There hasn't been much that's taken place in a week. I like the fact that Pence is getting rid of any lobbyist from Chris Christie - that's a good thing. Guiliani is a great pick in any capacity - I love how he led New York in the post 9/11 attacks - he showed great leadership.

Now onto the agenda. This is what I want to see in the first 100 days:
1) Trump wall planning starts - let's get it off the ground and running
2) Immediate revocation of every illegal executive order Obama passed - there's quite a few. Let's undo the damage.
3) Begin the repeal/replace of Obamacare - need to have something in the works in 100 days.
4) Appoint a conservative orginalist to the Supreme Court.

[glen a richter]

9/11 left Giuliani in the right place at the right time. The rest of his mayoral tenure was an unmitigated disaster sugarcoated only by the fact that he wasn't David Dinkins. Our last 4 mayors have all sucked. And before we start in with the republican / democrat nonsense, DiBlasio sucks as bad as Bloomy, Giuliani and Dinkins.

The wall better never happen, never. And if it does, the next president better tear it down. Walls don't solve anything.

And as far as the supreme court, Ginsberg and Breyer better be taking their vitamins because the last thing we need is a court that brings us back to the good old days of pure, unadulterated intolerance. I predict it'll take 2 decades to undo the damage inflicted by this administration. This ain't the dark ages but it'll sure feel like it.

[cardsfan04]

The wall won't get built. He played on a theme that resonated with part of the country. It doesn't even solve anything. Even if we ignore that there is negative net migration (meaning more illegal immigrants are leaving the country than coming), the most common way a person gets here illegally is by overstaying their visa. A wall doesn't fix that. There are so many better ways to combat the problem than a wall. Some of these aren't black and white issues, but go after sanctuary cities, do a better job of deporting non-citizens that commit crimes (which goes hand in hand with the sanctuary city thing). This also ignores the cost which will be through the roof.

I'm curious about his plan for repealing and replacing Obamacare. I love the idea of Obamacare, but it has some undeniable flaws. If he comes up with something better, I'll give it a fair shake. While he has the Congress to get rid of Obamacare, I think the logistics of replacing it will be difficult.

[cardsfan04]

Appointing Giuliani as Secretary of State would be the ultimate in hypocrisy. We've heard legitimate concerns for months about the Clinton Foundation taking money from foreign governments and how that presents a conflict of interest. Giuliani has done the same thing with Qatar, Venezuela and others.

[Kerfuffle]

The wall better never happen, never. And if it does, the next president better tear it down. Walls don't solve anything.

But Glen, what's wrong with protecting our borders? That's a good thing. Immigration is fine but needs to be done legally through the process. People cutting the line to run over the border is illegal and just taxes the whole system. A frustration I have with the left is they like to mix illegal immigration with legal immigration - such that if you want to protect the border or build a wall you are labeled as anti-immigrant or worse. But there is a big difference. Legal immigration good. Illegal immigration bad. Once the wall is up it will be hard for the next Dem president to just tear it down.

[glen a richter]

There's nothing wrong with immigration control. There's a lot wrong with a wall, which is purely symbolic.

1. Most immigrants, as has been pointed out, are going the other way now.
2. Not all of our immigration problem is Mexicans. Where's the wall on the Canadian border, for example?
3. This isn't the 19th century and there are myriad ways to get into America that don't involve having to scale a wall.
4. In my opinion, and I'd assume the opinion of a lot of other people as well, a Trump America will be so hostile to immigrants that they'll self deport because they don't want to be a part of this implosion.

Instead of building a wall, how about getting some actual personnel increases at strategic points of entry: tunnels, etc on both borders?

[cardsfan04]

There's nothing wrong with immigration control. There's a lot wrong with a wall, which is purely symbolic.

1. Most immigrants, as has been pointed out, are going the other way now.
2. Not all of our immigration problem is Mexicans. Where's the wall on the Canadian border, for example?
3. This isn't the 19th century and there are myriad ways to get into America that don't involve having to scale a wall.
4. In my opinion, and I'd assume the opinion of a lot of other people as well, a Trump America will be so hostile to immigrants that they'll self deport because they don't want to be a part of this implosion.

Instead of building a wall, how about getting some actual personnel increases at strategic points of entry: tunnels, etc on both borders?

Exactly. There are other ways to more effectively address this.

-While sanctuary cities aren't necessarily a black and white issue, crack down on them somewhat. The mayor of SF refusing to work with INS shouldn't happen, and as I recall, it was mostly glossed over after its time in the 24hour news cycle.
-Crack down on people overstaying their visas. I'm not real well versed on this, but apparently it's really easy to trick the US that you've left the country by checking into an international flight and then not boarding it. There has got to be a better way to track non-citizens that we allow into the country.