Round 1 Schedule

[theohall]

St. Louis Blues (4) vs. Vancouver Canucks (5) All times ET.

Wednesday, Aug. 12 10:30 p.m. Vancouver at St. Louis NBCSN, CBC, SN, TVAS
Friday, Aug. 14 6:30 p.m. Vancouver at St. Louis NHLN, SN, TVAS
Sunday, Aug. 16 10:30 p.m. St. Louis at Vancouver CNBC, SN, TVAS
Monday, Aug. 17 10:30 p.m. St. Louis at Vancouver NBCSN, CBC, SN, TVAS
*Wednesday, Aug. 19 TBD Vancouver at St. Louis TBD
*Friday, Aug. 21 TBD St. Louis at Vancouver TBD
*Sunday, Aug. 23 TBD Vancouver at St. Louis TBD

So basically, this entire series, in terms of time zones, is a Canucks home series. Screw the St Louis fans. Because no way would the Blues be starting a home playoff game at 9:30 CT if they were actually playing in St Louis.

[gaijin]

Back-to-back playoff games on Sunday and Monday? I don't recall ever seeing that before. Although to be fair, it's not like there is travel involved.

[ibldbl]

Hate those late games. I am going to be a zombie at work.

[gaijin]

Series preview from The Athletic. A long read, but the key bit I took away: "If both teams play up to their potential, it’s tough to see Vancouver having much of a shot in the series. The Canucks will need to be on their A-game and pray that the Blues continue struggling coming off the layoff."

For the first time in five years, the Vancouver Canucks are back in the playoffs.

Boasting an elite core led by Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes, the Canucks are finally on the rise after a long and painful rebuild. Their core is inexperienced in the playoffs, however, and the reward for their first postseason victory in nine years is a first-round date with the defending Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues.

Beating a middling Minnesota team is one thing, challenging St. Louis right after is like getting thrown into the deep end after dipping your toes in the kiddie pool. We’ll soon find out if Vancouver can swim or if they’ll sink against one of the NHL’s best.

It’ll be an uphill battle for the Canucks, but they have a fighting chance against the Blues. Facing St. Louis is a much better stylistic matchup for Vancouver then competing with Vegas or Colorado but St. Louis unsurprisingly enters the series with the upper hand.

The most likely outcome is a Blues series win in five or six games as they have a 63.1 percent chance of advancing. That isn’t nearly as lopsided as some of the other series in the West — namely Chicago/Vegas and Arizona/Colorado — but it’s still a sizable advantage for St. Louis.

Those odds are also with Tyler Toffoli in the lineup and would swing by an additional 2-3 percent if he were out for Round 1 after missing the last three games of the qualifiers with a rumoured lower body injury. Vancouver’s top line has more elite talent than St. Louis, but if Toffoli is unable to slot onto the second line, the chasm between the bottom nine forwards will likely nullify any edge the Pettersson line can create.

One crucial factor in the series that can’t be measured is how much motivation the Blues have to win. The old cliche of “who wants it more” is tired and overused, but it matters in this instance because of how undesirable bubble life is and because St. Louis already has last year’s Cup win to hang their hats on. You don’t want to read too much into the round robin as the stakes weren’t there, but it’s not a good sign that Blues coach Craig Berube himself questioned the team’s intensity and competitiveness, as they went 0-3 looking like a shell of their formidable selves. This might be one of the biggest X-factors in the series. Do the Blues have the same hunger the Canucks do and can they flip a switch and find their top game seamlessly when the real games begin?

For many years, St. Louis has been one of the sturdiest defensive teams in the NHL. The Blues have a deep blue line and their forwards are committed and capable of shutting opponents down as a five-man unit. No team surrenders fewer shots against and their 2.20 expected goals against rate at 5-on-5, good for seventh in the NHL, is elite. It’s a similar story to what the Canucks experienced against the Wild in the qualifiers, the difference being that the Blues don’t have the worst goaltending tandem in the NHL. They have Jordan Binnington, who was instrumental for the club’s second-half resurgence and championship win last year. This will make it much more difficult for Vancouver to find the back of the net than in the previous round.

Where the Blues aren’t as dominant is in their own offensive efforts, though Vladimir Tarasenko’s return is a nice shot in the arm. St. Louis isn’t a team keen on trading chances and that meant they were in the bottom third of the league in driving shot volume and creating quality chances. The roster features above average finishers, though St. Louis was opportunistic in capitalizing on its chances to rocket up to a nearly identical goals for pace as Vancouver at 5-on-5.

In contrast, the Canucks look a bit overmatched at even strength. They fire more shots and quality chances on net than the Blues but don’t have a lot of shooting talent outside of the top six so their offensive advantage is rather slim.

On the other end of the ice, Vancouver was one of the most permissive NHL teams in surrendering shots and high-danger chances against. The team’s biggest issue is defending speed in transition as they permitted a vast number of dangerous rush chances during the regular season. That’s why Colorado or Vegas would have been a difficult stylistic matchup — the Avalanche and Golden Knights are exceptionally quick in transition. They would have been able to exploit Vancouver’s primary weakness in a way St. Louis can’t quite match. Still, there will be plenty of open ice for the Blues to create offence if the regular season results are any indication.

That defensive form did improve in the qualifiers, however, where they surrendered just three 5-on-5 goals in four games. Some might counter by saying that Minnesota isn’t much of an offensive force, but they were surprisingly right up there with the likes of Tampa Bay, Colorado and Washington in being a top five team in 5-on-5 goals. Vancouver was able to manage the puck well after Game 1, ensuring the high forward (F3) rotated to cover every time a defenceman pinched on the forecheck. As a result, they didn’t allow as many odd-man rushes like they did in the regular season. And despite a few soft goals, they still got good help from Jacob Markstrom, who posted a .926 save percentage during the qualifiers.

Vancouver’s been a slightly below average team across the board at 5-on-5 this season by shot share, expected goals and goals but they’ve ratcheted their game up a notch in return to play. Minnesota had an excellent track record of driving play at 5-on-5 but Vancouver was essentially able to draw even in the shot attempt and scoring chance battles.

All this is to say that while St. Louis may have crushed Vancouver at evens in normal circumstances, the Canucks have raised the bar and could at least hang if they play their best hockey. That might not be enough, however, as Vancouver will need special teams to be a decisive edge. Vancouver might not get that leg up because the two teams are essentially dead-even in this department. Both sides have an elite power play and penalty kills that are slightly below average.

If both teams play up to their potential, it’s tough to see Vancouver having much of a shot in the series. The Canucks will need to be on their A-game and pray that the Blues continue struggling coming off the layoff.

The defending Stanley Cup champions were the champs for a reason: they’re deep at every position. It’s a stark contrast from the Canucks, who look the part of a playoff newbie, a team with some excellent pieces but also a number of holes throughout the lineup. It’s why the Blues are heavy favourites in this series.

The Blues have the advantage over Vancouver at every position, an advantage that grows larger the further down the lineup. The top line and top pair are both in Vancouver’s favour led by a trio of superb elite talents, but the Blues have wave after wave of talented players that can take the game over and have potential to vastly overwhelm the rest of Vancouver’s lineup. Of course, the Canucks faced a similar makeup against the Wild and came out swimmingly, but the Blues offer a much tougher challenge.

For starters, they have a much stronger forward group on the whole that has just over three wins of value on Vancouver. That’s led by a top six that can go toe-to-toe against the Canucks top two lines without much issue, especially with Tarasenko back in the fold.

Tarasenko brings a dynamic element to St Louis’s offence, a dangerous scoring threat off the rush in contrast to the rest of the team’s attack. He has a wicked shot and isn’t afraid to use it. Aside from this season where he only suited up for 10 games, Tarasenko has been remarkably consistent scoring around 1.1-1.2 goals per 60 at 5-on-5 and 2.1-2.2 points per 60 at 5-on-5 over the last four seasons. His 1.13 goals per 60 ranks 10th leaguewide since the 2015-16 season.

But Tarasenko isn’t just a gifted scorer, he’s also a strong play-driver thanks primarily to his ability to carry the puck up ice with control. He’s also displayed some great chemistry with linemates Jaden Schwartz – who bounced back nicely after an off year – and Brayden Schenn. The trio had the strongest expected goals rates on the team last season and I’d expect that to carry over here with Tarasenko back. They’re usually in the 55 percent range, but Schenn was below average this season, likely in part due to Tarasenko’s absence.

If the Blues can manage that, they can dominate a number of shifts against Vancouver’s second line starring Bo Horvat, especially if Toffoli is out. The Canucks aren’t a deep team and Toffoli’s presence is critical to the team’s chances as he solidifies the team’s top six. If he can’t go, it means Brock Boeser likely has to slide up to create a super line with Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller, leaving the team vulnerable elsewhere.

That top line will likely be getting a steady diet of last year’s Selke Trophy winner Ryan O’Reilly and he has the power to singlehandedly shut them down. Putting Boeser there likely allows Vancouver to win that matchup – the trio had a 59 percent expected goals rate together this season – but it puts all the team’s eggs in one basket leaving them with a very thin bottom nine. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t and that’s the problem with having such a top heavy attack. An injury to one of the key cogs has large consequences and Vancouver has to hope Toffoli can suit up.

O’Reilly is the exact player Canucks fans hope Horvat can become, but he’s in an entirely different stratosphere with his defensive game. He’s deservedly a finalist for another Selke Trophy this season and posted the third lowest expected goals rate on the team at 2.08. That’s tough to do against the opponents O’Reilly faces on a nightly basis and it led to a 54.3 percent expected goals rate this season, the highest on the team. He also had 61 percent of the goals. Horvat was at 48.5 and 43.7 percent, respectively. That’s not ideal for the team’s go-to shutdown centre and it’s clear there’s still some progression left to be made in his game before he can be put in the same breath with one the game’s best in the role.

While O’Reilly is worthy of a lot of praise, he’s arguably not the best player in this series. That honour belongs to Pettersson, who is quickly becoming one of the game’s brightest stars, worth 3.5 wins in this series. Among centres he grades out as the 10th best by GSVA and it feels like he’s only going to climb higher over the next few seasons. Pettersson didn’t break through the point per game threshold this season, but that’s coming very soon considering just how many goals Vancouver scored with him on the ice that he didn’t get a point on. Pettersson’s individual points percentage was just 64 percent this season, a shockingly low mark for an elite player and one that likely regresses going forward. His chemistry with Miller can’t be forgotten either and the winger acquired last offseason has emerged as Vancouver’s second most important forward. With the Canucks officially making the playoffs that trade looks like a slam dunk and the front office deserves kudos for having the stones to pull it off.

On the Blues’ second line, Zach Sanford slots on O’Reilly’s left and while he’s not a player most fans would immediately recognize, that may change with another strong playoff run. He generated a bit of buzz when he got into playoff games last season as an efficient plug-and-play option and he found a way to elevate his game further the following season scoring 30 points in 58 games. That may not seem like a lot, but it’s impressive considering his ice time and lack of power play time. At 5-on-5 he was second on the Blues in points per 60 at 2.33 and he’s become a pivotal part of the team’s strong second line with David Perron on the other side. Perron led the team in points per 60 with the man advantage and was a crucial element to the team’s third ranked power play.

Sanford was second in 5-on-5 point rate, but it wasn’t either of his linemates that was first, nor any of the three studs on the top line. It was Robert Thomas on the third line at 2.45, which ranked 32nd in the league. Not bad for the 21-year-old who looked smooth in his second NHL season and elevated his game up to a 52-point pace. He doesn’t shoot much, but he’s got great vision and is an excellent playmaker, finishing fourth in primary assists per 60 this season. He’s great moving the puck up ice too and is probably the next big thing for the Blues.

Thomas forms a strong duo with Tyler Bozak on the third line and the two managed to play some strong two-way hockey this season, which should give the Blues’ third line a big edge against Vancouver. Both players grade out as top six calibre and it’s having those types of players on the third line that the Canucks are missing for now and makes the Blues a contender. Vancouver’s third line looks relatively thin by comparison.

Jake Virtanen took some serious strides this year and started producing at a more efficient rate, but he’s not at a top six level yet due to questions regarding his two-way game. His development – along with players like Zack MacEwen and Adam Gaudette – is crucial to Vancouver taking the next step. The Canucks have the hardest part figured out, the elite talent, now it’s a matter of building a strong supporting cast. It’s the primary reason the Blues are so successful and they have two players on their fourth line – Alex Steen and Oskar Sundqvist – who would likely be the best players in Vancouver’s bottom six.

The Canucks’ defence faces similar depth issues and that’s readily apparent when placed side-by-side with St. Louis’ roster. Both teams have elite heavyweights in Alex Pietrangelo and Quinn Hughes manning the top of the depth chart at 2.9 wins. A lot of Hughes’ value is tied to his incredible power play acumen while Pietrangelo is a prototypical minute-eater at 5-on-5, crushing tough minutes with relative ease. That’s not to say Hughes isn’t also impactful at 5-on-5, he’s just not on Pietrangelo’s level yet, especially not defensively. Hughes was sensational in the qualifying round and had an average Game Score of 1.89. That was one of the highest marks of any player thanks to his 59 percent expected goal rate and six points in four games.

But the similarities end after that. The Blues have Colton Parayko and Vince Dunn manning the next two pairs, both of whom are capable of tilting the ice. Dunn is especially adept with an elite transitional profile in all three zones and I’m still not sure how or why he’s used so infrequently, especially considering the results he had with Pietrangelo this year. It’s not just the 62 percent expected goals rate the two shared, they also outscored opponents 16-7. He’s far and away the team’s best defenceman on the left side and his promotion could really increase St. Louis’ odds.

The Canucks just don’t have that same fortitude with their next two pillars, Alex Edler and Tyler Myers. Both were below average in expected goal share this season and the main issue is that they don’t have much help (and that Myers has a penchant for taking one or nine too many penalties). One only needs to look at the season Parayko had as proof as he struggled with an aging Jay Bouwmeester, but rebounded once Marco Scandella came to town.

It doesn’t get much better for the Canucks, though. Chris Tanev somehow had four points against the Wild, but the fact he had a negative 5-on-5 scoring chance impact doesn’t help his case. Considering Olli Juoveli only played six minutes in his NHL debut in Game 4, he probably won’t be trusted, either. The Canucks really need him to become the player they hoped he could be when they selected him fifth overall in 2016.

In goal, Jordan Binnington carries a 1.1-win edge over Jacob Markstrom, a projection that might not fly with some Canucks fans considering Binnington fell back down to earth this season. But by goals saved above expected, Binnington was superior, saving 4.6 this season to Markstrom’s 3.8. That’s according to public models anyway which wouldn’t do as good of a job accounting for the volume of transition chances Markstrom was tasked with this year. The two likely see their results flip as a result, but regardless, Binnington still holds the edge thanks to a much larger chasm between the two last season. Binnington stormed onto the scene and immediately became one of the league’s top goalies so the model holds him in high esteem as a result. He ranks seventh in goals saved above expected over the last two seasons while Markstrom ranks 16th – with six goals saved separating the two.

Forwards, defence, goaltending – it’s all in the Blues’ favour as they try to defend their title.

The Bottom Line

The Canucks are new to this after spending the last half decade in the league’s basement, but they’re ready for prime time and hungry to prove they belong. They have the elite talent that can take a series over, plus strong goaltending that can steal it. If Markstrom can continue the dominance he exhibited in the last series the Canucks will have a fighting chance.

But the champs are the champs until they’re not and though they looked wretched in the round robin, it’s safe to expect their A-game now that the games start to really matter – and they have a strong A-game. The Blues have the elite talent to match Vancouver and the depth to overwhelm them. They also play a brand of hockey that’s built to win in the postseason and can frustrate teams that are new to the dance. This series should be theirs for the taking, but don’t be surprised if Vancouver scares them along the way.

[flyingnote38]

aaaaannnnnndddddd
right off the hop, the NHL has the 'what happens if one of the games goes multiple overtimes?'

they gonna start a game at 1 AM or push to the next day?

[flyingnote38]

aaaaannnnnndddddd
right off the hop, the NHL has the 'what happens if one of the games goes multiple overtimes?'

they gonna start a game at 1 AM or push to the next day?

actually I guess just two games per day per arena and only in first round so, I guess it would have to go pretty long
maybe second game ends at 1

[theohall]

Canes game pushed to 11 ET tomorrow.

Current Bolts game is 12:01 from the modern era record for longest game - in which Boucher, who is calling the game on NBCSN, played.

Quite a bit further away from the #1 and #2 longest all-time games - but those were in 1936 and 1933, respectively.

[theohall]

Wonder how Columbus is going to respond... they've played 25 periods of hockey in real competition over the past 10 days - which is just over 8 games in 10 days. No one does that in this era.

[flyingnote38]

first two eastern conference games averaged over 6 periods

[theohall]

Boston's Tukka Rask opted out of NHLs return to play this morning. He's out.... Looks like it will be the Halak show.

[Portland Blues]

So long Chicago! Thanks for swinging by the 2020 playoffs.

[Portland Blues]

Also Kane and Toews still continue to have the crappiest playoff beards ever.

[gaijin]

The Isles send the Caps home in 5 games.

[theohall]

Since rounds are re-seeded this playoff season.

West
Avs vs Stars in Rd 2. Winner of our series gets Vegas.

East
If Philly wins - Flyers vs Isles; Bruins vs Lightning
If Montreal wins - Lightning vs Habs ; Bruins vs Isles

[WaukeeBlues]

So long Chicago! Thanks for swinging by the 2020 playoffs.

Really, it was the best possible scenario. Best thing that could've happened. No shot at the #1 pick, fall later in the first round of the draft as a result of making it into the "real" playoffs, and then promptly bounced. Perfect.

[theohall]

The Avs without Johnson and Grubauer really need more from everyone on that team not named McKinnon. Even when Dallas wins, McKinnon is still the best player on the ice.