American Thanksgiving

[flyingnote38]

Former Hawks GM Mike Smith always said it took until "American Thanksgiving" to know what type of team you have.

Well here we are; and it looks like we have a team that's more competitive for the #1 overall draft pick than the #31st overall.

Firing Yeo will not be a panacea (even Army seemed to express frustration with the current 'core' of players), but a good hire at coach (and can we really trust Army to do that?) would help a lot.

But it starts with goaltending. Army has made a series of bad decisions regarding goalies that has taken that position from a strength to a weakness. Jake Allen has not been to blame for the most part for our current position at the bottom of the standings, but last night looked like a warning shot that as soon as the offense gets rolling, Jake Allen is going to do his thing and start costing games with bad goals. So once we start moving 'core players', a change in goal should be a top priority, in my opinion. I just don't think Allen is the answer.

The defense has been pretty mediocre. The initial reaction from the PD about core players of course questioned if that was a shot at Tank, but maybe Piet's on the hot seat too. Boouw is a lame duck and likely has no value, but no healthy dman on the roster looks like much of an upgrade; Schmaltz has not impressed me.

At offense, things should be rosier despite having managed a total of 1 goal over the past 4 games not involving Vegas. Thomas needs to shoot more; he thinks pass first but most of the time, he's hands down the most talented player on his line. The first half of that sentence could apply to Tank as well.

Two more losses this weekend and I think a reboot will be coming.

[glen a richter]

In related news, how will Jack Hughes fit onto this roster? Down the middle there's Schenn, O'Reilly, Thomas... would they dump the 1st overall pick into a 4th line role or will it finally force the team to rethink the way they configure the 4th line? Move someone to the wing? Maybe pass on Hughes altogether and draft that Finnish winger Kaapo Kakko instead.

Kakko seems like a riser, he's got more of an NHL frame and he can play wing and center so my hope is that when the Blues have the 1st overall pick they take him instead of Hughes.

What's the slogan for the rest of the year? Play like Crap-o for Kaapo?

I'm in for a roster makeover. Roll with Berube the rest of the season, do some due diligence in hiring the next coach and then just flood next years team with kids--including Husso, and let them take their lumps for the season. Big picture, it'll set the table for another 5 or 6 year window where maybe, just maybe, this team can win a franking Cup or two.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

[flyingnote38]

oh and another thing re shooting
Its ok for the shot to actually be on net once in awhile

the decision to pull the goalie and make the 4 on 3 PP a 5 on 3 was stupid and of course blew up in our face. Spectacularly due to missing wide and having no one at the point, but it could have easily been just a clearing attempt that found the empty net. Went from having a bit of a chance with the PP to game over, turn out the lights.

[glen a richter]

I'm going to just toss this puppy out there for some Thanksgiving dinner conversation, and I'm not pulling this topic starter out of my ass, I've seen it floated.

Armstrong is talking about a change to the core to go along with a change in coaching presumably next season. As fans, we tend to be overly loyal to our best players even though they ultimately haven't contributed shit in terms of sustained playoff success, or even playoff appearances as was the case last year and will probably be the case this year. Would you be open to a major roster shake-up that features moving Tarasenko out? Yeah, he's a very good player, but he's under performed expectations every year. He could command a nice haul around the trade deadline if the ship hasn't been righted by that point, and frankly I don't think it will be. Lots of talent on this team but talent doesn't make up for inexperience or lack of team cohesion.

[theohall]

Nylander for Tarasenko

[glen a richter]

Nylander for Tarasenko

That’s exactly what I was thinking. Though I'm sure Army could demand at least one other piece in addition to Nylander.

[theohall]

What's kind of crazy to me, though. Even though Tarasenko isn't scoring, he's played better overall hockey the past 7 or so games. Nylander, however, has speed Tarasenko does not.

[WaukeeBlues]

We just had a substantial roster overhaul though, that's the thing. This was the most active summer for the Blues that I can recall in quite some time. At what point does making moves constantly sabotage your own desire for "cohesion"? Every time you move a major piece or pieces, it takes a hot minute for the team to reconfigure.

Trading Tarasenko would be Oshie 2.0: he'd blow up on another team, IMO. Pietro and Steen have full NTC's as do most of the summer acquisitions.

I don't know... I was very much in favor of the moves Armstrong made in the summer, I'm ecstatic Yeo got canned. But I still don't know that the answer is "trade everyone." Pietro was almost unanimously the front runner for the Norris at the first 1/4 or 1/3 of last season. The talent is clearly there. If it's more a locker room issue then I suppose that's a separate conversation altogether.

All I know is that this team is way too good on paper to be possessing the record it has. The "why"? I don't know. But aside from perhaps a lateral trade (Panarin for Tarasenko, etc) I'm not in favor of the "trade everyone" idea.

[glen a richter]

How about a trade with equally floundering Edmonton? Draisaitl and/or maybe Nurse?

[theohall]

part of the why is the "dad" factor.

Bozak - new dad
Pietrangelo - triplets.

Not getting rest matters in professional sports and babies kill rest for parents.

[glen a richter]

In my daily look at the rumor mill I easily stumbled across this one...

Jake Allen for Jimmy Howard. Rationale, move on from Allen without hamstringing the team long term since Howard is a FA at seasons end. Dip into free agency to secure a new long term solution at goal (Bobrovsky and Varlamov were both mentioned).

I'd take a very resounding pass on that. Thoughts?

[ComradeT]

In my daily look at the rumor mill I easily stumbled across this one...

Jake Allen for Jimmy Howard. Rationale, move on from Allen without hamstringing the team long term since Howard is a FA at seasons end. Dip into free agency to secure a new long term solution at goal (Bobrovsky and Varlamov were both mentioned).

I'd take a very resounding pass on that. Thoughts?

I think last game showed why this is a completely pat trade. Both are not very good, and very inconsistent goalies. Bob or Varly would be much, much better than Howard but will surely come at a steeper price.

[glen a richter]

In my daily look at the rumor mill I easily stumbled across this one...

Jake Allen for Jimmy Howard. Rationale, move on from Allen without hamstringing the team long term since Howard is a FA at seasons end. Dip into free agency to secure a new long term solution at goal (Bobrovsky and Varlamov were both mentioned).

I'd take a very resounding pass on that. Thoughts?

I think last game showed why this is a completely pat trade. Both are not very good, and very inconsistent goalies. Bob or Varly would be much, much better than Howard but will surely come at a steeper price.

I pass because of the steep price for both goalies. I'm not saying its a sure thing but surely you could wait until the offseason to trade Allen to someone for a piece that will be on the Blues at least for a full 2019-2020 season or a pick or something. Allen for Howard is lateral and you lose Howard as of July 1st anyway. So you're going to spend all that dough on Bobrovsky or Varlamov who may not even want to play in St. Louis? Between now and next camp, Armstrong has a lot of decisions to make and I doubt either guy would want to play on a team with probably a young unproven coach and a previous season of utter failure. Honestly, we all know it takes goalies a while to develop and I'm not so sure I wouldn't let Binnington have the reins next season.

[gaijin]

The way Allen is playing right now, he stays with the Blues this season and next because, as mentioned, what feasible options are there that don't cost an arm and a leg? And how do their numbers compare to what we are getting now? Probably roughly equal.

So while Jake has not been awesome, he has corrected himself somewhat since the beginning of the season when he looked really bad. If he suffers another midseason breakdown (i.e. January Jake comes 'round again), then I would say look for him to be moved. Barring that, I would bet he stays put and remains average.

Part of it is that the Blues organization, when faced multiple times with the decision to choose to keep one of their goalies and let the other go, has chosen to go with Allen (Allen vs. Elliott, Allen vs. Hutton). Of course, going back further, they've got a pretty poor track record in that regard (trading Halak for Miller, etc.).

[ComradeT]

In my daily look at the rumor mill I easily stumbled across this one...

Jake Allen for Jimmy Howard. Rationale, move on from Allen without hamstringing the team long term since Howard is a FA at seasons end. Dip into free agency to secure a new long term solution at goal (Bobrovsky and Varlamov were both mentioned).

I'd take a very resounding pass on that. Thoughts?

I think last game showed why this is a completely pat trade. Both are not very good, and very inconsistent goalies. Bob or Varly would be much, much better than Howard but will surely come at a steeper price.

I pass because of the steep price for both goalies. I'm not saying its a sure thing but surely you could wait until the offseason to trade Allen to someone for a piece that will be on the Blues at least for a full 2019-2020 season or a pick or something. Allen for Howard is lateral and you lose Howard as of July 1st anyway. So you're going to spend all that dough on Bobrovsky or Varlamov who may not even want to play in St. Louis? Between now and next camp, Armstrong has a lot of decisions to make and I doubt either guy would want to play on a team with probably a young unproven coach and a previous season of utter failure. Honestly, we all know it takes goalies a while to develop and I'm not so sure I wouldn't let Binnington have the reins next season.

So guess what, Bob, Varly and Howard are all UFAs next season. I am a) starting to think this rumor is purely an unsubstantiated speculation based simply on rounding up UFA goalies and b) thinking that it makes zero sense for the Blues to trade for an impending UFA goalie. That would be a definitional rental and that's the last thing they need right now as they will surely be sellers at the deadline.

[WaukeeBlues]

...
Part of it is that the Blues organization, when faced multiple times with the decision to choose to keep one of their goalies and let the other go, has chosen to go with Allen (Allen vs. Elliott, Allen vs. Hutton). Of course, going back further, they've got a pretty poor track record in that regard (trading Halak for Miller, etc.).

Let's just call it what it's been: a goalie carousel.

Every time this organization thinks it's landed on the next goalie it's... not. For at least, what, 18 years? Blues goalies playing in at least 21 games (over a quarter of the season, player with more games listed first):

1999-2000: Roman Turek (1)
2000-2001: Roman Turek, Brent Johnson (2)
2001-2002: Brent Johnson, Fred Braithwaite (3)
2002-2003: Brent Johnson, Fred Braithwaite (this is the year we dressed 7 goalies)
2003-2004: Chris Osgood (4)
2005-2006: Curtis Sanford (5), Patrick Lalime (6)
2006-2007: Manny Legace (7), Curtis Sanford
2007-2008: Manny Legace, Hannu Toivonen (8)
2008-2009: Chris Mason (9), Manny Legace
2009-2010: Chris Mason, Ty Conklin (10)
2010-2011: Jaroslav Halak (11), Ty Conklin
2011-2012: Jaroslav Halak, Brian Elliott (12)
2012-2013: Brian Elliott
2013-2014: Jaroslav Halak, Brian Elliott, Ryan Miller*(13)
2014-2015: Brian Elliott, Jake Allen (14)
2015-2016: Jake Allen, Brian Elliott
2016-2017: Jake Allen, Carter Hutton (15)
2017-2018: Jake Allen, Carter Hutton

* 19 games played


So that's 15 goalies (granted not all intended to be "starters") over the course of 18 seasons, slowing dramatically in recent years but still. Also, there was a rebuild in there but that CAN'T be a good number of guys to have between the pipes over that time.

[glen a richter]

My gut feeling, which is often wrong, is that if Binnington was given the job he'd excel. His numbers have been pretty good and on a godawful San Antonio team he's still doing well, and significantly better than Husso has done. If it takes time for a goalie to develop then maybe it's his time. What could it possibly hurt to give it a whirl at this point?

[theohall]

You can't judge Binnington on what he's done in solely in November. If you take the time and look back at his history, he is the definition of inconsistent, even when he's stayed on one team.

Yes, he was on a hot streak right now. Last season, he played a great 2nd half of the season for Providence, then played so poorly in the playoffs he was benched in the 2nd game for the guy he replaced and didn't play again. Binnigton's last start for the Rampage he got pulled after giving up 7 goals on 22 shots.

If Binnington can put together a full season of consistency, fine. Move him up. Until then, he isn't an answer.

Husso, IMO, was a victim of the massive roster changes which happened in SA to start this season, followed by Binnington getting the nod, because he was the hot goaltender. Husso's last start: 40 saves on 43 shots in a 4-3 win. And Husso was perfect, 7 for 7, in relief of Binnington in the Rampage's last game.

Any time discussing anything Rampage related, I would throw out October for stats for every player on the team, because - again - the Rampage are the equivalent of an expansion team which only returned 1 defenseman. Think about that. Imagine an NHL team only having 1 returning defenseman. And lately, the Rampage have started turning things around (5-1 in the last 6), which is a very good sign considering all the roster changes and the rookie head coach.

[flyingnote38]

we are reaching the point where we should know what we have and I gotta say I have no clue

we have a streaky team that's for sure.
we give up way too many shots
we need a power play make over

[glen a richter]

We have a middling team with potential to make the playoffs but almost certainly not make any noise once they're there. They're not the eight losses in a row team but they're not the six wins in a row team either. They're in purgatory and that'll land them a mediocre draft pick. They're essentially everything the Blues have always been, save for 2019 and only then because they had a helluva second half and a once in a lifetime magical run--a team basically good enough to make it to the playoffs, not nearly awful enough to accumulate top talent through the draft, but not good enough to hang with the big boys more than a round or two into the playoffs.

It would be incumbent upon Army to at least entertain offers for Tarasenko around deadline time, if not also for O'Reilly, Barbashev and I know it'll be a tough slog to unload either but also think about sending Krug or Parayko packing. They stand to lose a lot by losing them for nothing. Right now I see the Devils, Islanders and Rangers all jockeying for prime playoff seeding and the Islanders/Rangers may be willing to pay dearly if they think the Devils are what we see them to be which is a team that took a major leap forward this season. I'd not be surprised to see a bidding war amongst the NY metropolitan area teams for Tarasenko's services. Bear in mind the Rangers are coming from a position of having two first round picks this season so may be more able to offer what would be a fair value. Depending on where they stand around that time two 1st's + Brennan Othmann would be a good discussion. The Islanders pool of prospects is weak, way weaker than the Rangers, so for them to get in on the action there should be multiple picks or someone from the NHL roster which sadly would probably not be Scott Mayfield.