Tracking the Improbable...

BringBackZezel · Post by **BringBackZezel** » Sat Feb 03, 2007 10:19 am

I'm surprised how quickly some of you have given up already.

You knew they had to go 20-9 or something like that, but once they get 3 losses, it's over?

At least keep on with the KAG dreams....or else we'll have nothing to discuss!

Aode · Post by **Aode** » Sat Feb 03, 2007 12:02 pm

BringBackZezel wrote:I'm surprised how quickly some of you have given up already.

You knew they had to go 20-9 or something like that, but once they get 3 losses, it's over?

At least keep on with the KAG dreams....or else we'll have nothing to discuss!

They'll have to go 23-8 over their remaining games to hit 94 points. That's 3 wins for every loss that we have. That's tough, real tough...

I think they have to basically win every game up to the trade deadline for enough confidence in this team to be there to not sell.

The all-star break wrecked whatever momentum we had going into it, now we're back on the wrong side of it.

I really don't know- so much of it depends on what our rival teams in the standings are doing, but losing three straight right off the bat is a punch in the stomach for the playoff race as far as I am concerned.

Robb_K · Post by **Robb_K** » Sat Feb 03, 2007 12:11 pm

I think that assuming 94 points will get us in is too optimistic. Minnesota is hot now, and will likely stay that way now that their scoring forwards are back. That may mean it will take more like 96 or, possibly even 97 points to capture 8th.

The way the Blues looked in their last 3 games makes me realise that the odds of their being able to go 24-6 in the last 30 games is almost nill -EVEN if a lot of things go right, and they play hungry like they did before The All Star Break.

Aode · Post by **Aode** » Sat Feb 03, 2007 1:02 pm

Robb_K wrote:I think that assuming 94 points will get us in is too optimistic. Minnesota is hot now, and will likely stay that way now that their scoring forwards are back. That may mean it will take more like 96 or, possibly even 97 points to capture 8th.

The way the Blues looked in their last 3 games makes me realise that the odds of their being able to go 24-6 in the last 30 games is almost nill -EVEN if a lot of things go right, and they play hungry like they did before The All Star Break.

I hear you... too many of the wrong teams getting hot at (from our point of view) the wrong time.

Well, we'll see about tonight vs. the Stars- baby steps...

TC · Post by TC » Sat Feb 03, 2007 3:03 pm

They'll have to go 23-8...That's 3 wins for every loss that we have.

um... what about the other 3%?

Aode · Post by **Aode** » Sat Feb 03, 2007 4:14 pm

TC wrote:
They'll have to go 23-8...That's 3 wins for every loss that we have.
um... what about the other 3%?

ABOUT 3 wins for every loss... alright?

northwest dave · Post by **northwest dave** » Sat Feb 03, 2007 6:29 pm

BringBackZezel wrote:I'm surprised how quickly some of you have given up already.

You knew they had to go 20-9 or something like that, but once they get 3 losses, it's over?

At least keep on with the KAG dreams....or else we'll have nothing to discuss!

Do you think the Redwings are going to trade Lang or Datsyuk soon?

YouTube · Post by **cprice12** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 12:45 am

BringBackZezel wrote:I'm surprised how quickly some of you have given up already.

You knew they had to go 20-9 or something like that, but once they get 3 losses, it's over?

At least keep on with the KAG dreams....or else we'll have nothing to discuss!

Losing three games...not a huge deal. Losing three in a row...much bigger deal.

You know this.

Tezmyster · Post by **Tezmyster** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 3:11 am

Ladder @ end of 3/2

6th: Dallas : 64 points : 29 games remaining
7th: Vancouver : 62 points : 29 games remaining
8th: Minnesota : 62 points : 28 games remaining
9th: Edmonton : 56 points : 29 games remaining
10th: Colorado : 54 points : 30 games remaining
11th: Phoenix : 50 points : 29 games remaining
12th: St Louis : 50 points : 29 games remaining

No games of significance over next 2 days

Robb_K · Post by **Robb_K** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 5:51 am

The way The Blues are playing under Murray, they may well be able to pass all the other current non-playoff position teams, and finish in 9th. I think they'll have trouble winning enough games to pass hot Minnesota, who now has its scoring forwards back. And they'd probably have to win 22 or 23 of 29 to pass Vancouver. That means that they'll have to play better than they've already played overall for Murray, as well as better than Buffalo and Anaheim have played. I don't see it happening. But, even though they might fall only one position short, and get a draft position much lower than if they were in the bottom 5, I prefer this. The team has a lot of hope for next year. it will be much easier to sign free agents (they'll have a much wider choice, and ability to sign better players, and they won't have to overpay for them). It might be easier to get their European draftees to come to North America, too (to even want to remain in The Blues' organisation). Players The Blues trade will have more trade value. Attendance at the beginning of next season will be higher.

It's better all the way around. The Blues will still get good players in the draft, as the skill/talent level is very even across the rounds.

Aode · Post by **Aode** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 1:04 pm

Robb_K wrote:The way The Blues are playing under Murray, they may well be able to pass all the other current non-playoff position teams, and finish in 9th. I think they'll have trouble winning enough games to pass hot Minnesota, who now has its scoring forwards back. And they'd probably have to win 22 or 23 of 29 to pass Vancouver. That means that they'll have to play better than they've already played overall for Murray, as well as better than Buffalo and Anaheim have played. I don't see it happening. But, even though they might fall only one position short, and get a draft position much lower than if they were in the bottom 5, I prefer this. The team has a lot of hope for next year. it will be much easier to sign free agents (they'll have a much wider choice, and ability to sign better players, and they won't have to overpay for them). It might be easier to get their European draftees to come to North America, too (to even want to remain in The Blues' organisation). Players The Blues trade will have more trade value. Attendance at the beginning of next season will be higher.

It's better all the way around. The Blues will still get good players in the draft, as the skill/talent level is very even across the rounds.

It would be astonishing if the Blues pulled down a playoff berth, I think we can all agree on that one.

I agree that Minnesota is going nuts lately, but as long as the top 5 teams keep winning and drive that point differential up, we got a shot. Heck, even if the bottom teams pull off an upset every now and again it would help.

I just think that a lot of it doesn't even depend on the Blues as much anymore- they basically have to win all their games- so we know what has to happen here

just depends how the rest of the west pans out...

o$o · Post by **o$o** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 1:28 pm

Tezmyster wrote:Ladder @ end of 3/2

6th: Dallas : 64 points : 29 games remaining
7th: Vancouver : 62 points : 29 games remaining
8th: Minnesota : 62 points : 28 games remaining
9th: Edmonton : 56 points : 29 games remaining
10th: Colorado : 54 points : 30 games remaining
11th: Phoenix : 50 points : 29 games remaining
12th: St Louis : 50 points : 29 games remaining

No games of significance over next 2 days

Only a 6 win differance between ourselves and Minny, definetly attainable with the number of games left.

illownyou · Post by **illownyou** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 10:09 pm

The playoff chances for the Blues are pretty much shot. If the wild play at .500 from this point, they would finish at 90 points. The Blues would need to play .690 to hit 90 points.

Uh...first off, Minnesota is flying right now and 7th seed Vancouver's record is even better that the Wild's, and they too are playing well having lost only twice in their last 10.

The Blues might finish 9th...but that'll be it.

I've been swayed. Sell...but get the most we can. Duh.

illownyou · Post by **illownyou** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 10:13 pm

o$o wrote:
Tezmyster wrote:Ladder @ end of 3/2

6th: Dallas : 64 points : 29 games remaining
7th: Vancouver : 62 points : 29 games remaining
8th: Minnesota : 62 points : 28 games remaining
9th: Edmonton : 56 points : 29 games remaining
10th: Colorado : 54 points : 30 games remaining
11th: Phoenix : 50 points : 29 games remaining
12th: St Louis : 50 points : 29 games remaining

No games of significance over next 2 days
Only a 6 win differance between ourselves and Minny, definetly attainable with the number of games left.

Definitely attainable???

It's no wonder you're so concerned about SMP.

Tezmyster · Post by **Tezmyster** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 10:20 pm

illownyou wrote:
o$o wrote:
Tezmyster wrote:Ladder @ end of 3/2

6th: Dallas : 64 points : 29 games remaining
7th: Vancouver : 62 points : 29 games remaining
8th: Minnesota : 62 points : 28 games remaining
9th: Edmonton : 56 points : 29 games remaining
10th: Colorado : 54 points : 30 games remaining
11th: Phoenix : 50 points : 29 games remaining
12th: St Louis : 50 points : 29 games remaining

No games of significance over next 2 days
Only a 6 win differance between ourselves and Minny, definetly attainable with the number of games left.
Definitely attainable???

It's no wonder you're so concerned about SMP.

Well it is definately attainable, whether or not it is realistically attainable is another matter. I think the point of interest though is that 6th is only 7 wins in front. A few wins to the teams 9th-12th and a few losses to the teams 6th-8th and suddenly we've got a whole new ball game for ladder positions.

illownyou · Post by **illownyou** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 10:26 pm

Tezmyster wrote:
illownyou wrote:
o$o wrote:
Tezmyster wrote:Ladder @ end of 3/2

6th: Dallas : 64 points : 29 games remaining
7th: Vancouver : 62 points : 29 games remaining
8th: Minnesota : 62 points : 28 games remaining
9th: Edmonton : 56 points : 29 games remaining
10th: Colorado : 54 points : 30 games remaining
11th: Phoenix : 50 points : 29 games remaining
12th: St Louis : 50 points : 29 games remaining

No games of significance over next 2 days
Only a 6 win differance between ourselves and Minny, definetly attainable with the number of games left.
Definitely attainable???

It's no wonder you're so concerned about SMP.
Well it is definately attainable, whether or not it is realistically attainable is another matter. I think the point of interest though is that 6th is only 7 wins in front. A few wins to the teams 9th-12th and a few losses to the teams 6th-8th and suddenly we've got a whole new ball game for ladder positions.

Yeah...ok...but not really. Just let go...we aren't getting in. Go take a good look at those standings...objectively. Oh yeah, thats the problem.

BF44 · Post by **BF44** » Sun Feb 04, 2007 11:21 pm

I'll be slipping into a coma now. Someone wake me up when we've either been officially eliminated or have clinched a playoff spot........

o$o · Post by **o$o** » Mon Feb 05, 2007 9:42 am

Tezmyster wrote:
illownyou wrote:
o$o wrote:
Tezmyster wrote:Ladder @ end of 3/2

6th: Dallas : 64 points : 29 games remaining
7th: Vancouver : 62 points : 29 games remaining
8th: Minnesota : 62 points : 28 games remaining
9th: Edmonton : 56 points : 29 games remaining
10th: Colorado : 54 points : 30 games remaining
11th: Phoenix : 50 points : 29 games remaining
12th: St Louis : 50 points : 29 games remaining

No games of significance over next 2 days
Only a 6 win differance between ourselves and Minny, definetly attainable with the number of games left.
Definitely attainable???

It's no wonder you're so concerned about SMP.
Well it is definately attainable, whether or not it is realistically attainable is another matter. I think the point of interest though is that 6th is only 7 wins in front. A few wins to the teams 9th-12th and a few losses to the teams 6th-8th and suddenly we've got a whole new ball game for ladder positions.

++

Stranger things have happened....

BringBackZezel · Post by **BringBackZezel** » Mon Feb 05, 2007 9:54 am

It'll be tough enough for the Blues to pass 4 teams to get into the playoffs (virtually impossible), but to even discuss them passing 6 teams @ this point is ridiculous.

It's one thing if the Blues were 13 points out of the playoffs. They'd only need to make up 13 points on one team.

But they have to pass 4 teams to get there. What happens when Phoenix plays Edmonton, or Colorado plays Minnesota? No matter the outcome, the Blues are further away from the playoffs.

Tezmyster · Post by **Tezmyster** » Tue Feb 06, 2007 6:49 am

Tomorrow's games of significance:

Phoenix @ Columbus
Minnesota @ Dallas
Toronto @ St Louis
Vancouver @ Edmonton
Florida @ Colorado