Let's Go Blues

In the past, the Blues played a "heavy" game and were always identified by opponents as being a tough opponent to face due to that style of play. This current team clearly does not play a heavy game at all. So they aren't a heavy team.

How they have won and lost games is all over the map this season. They've won shootouts, lost shootouts, won and lost games where they played the possession game, won and lost games where they were dominated in the possession game. What the heck is this team?

Just to clarify why this is important let's look at some other teams.

1st - New Jersey. Whenever they win or lose, John Hynes in his post-game presses immediately states why they won or lost and it's always the Devils played to their identity or they didn't. Their identity is a hard work, possession style game - like what the Blues were in the Hitchcock era. Granted, they aren't doing that well this season, but the coach clearly has an answer to the team's issues and why they succeed or fail in each game.

2nd - Tampa Bay. Fast-paced, quick transition, high offense team. What some don't realize is Tampa also tries to be a possession team. When they aren't doing well in that 2nd aspect, they wind up in one-goal games - like the most recent fortunate win vs the Islanders. Whenever this team has a bad period, it's almost always from lack of effort skating and is easy to see and you even hear players in intermission interviews stating so. It usually winds up fixed either within that same period of the very next one. You almost never see Lightning games where the effort is lacking for 60 minutes. I only recall one this season and that was the last game of a road trip, back-to-back nights, after playing in Vegas the prior night and Arizona walloped them. Teamd didn't play to their identity once and got crushed.

3rd - Arizona. This team has transformed into being ludicrously good most nights at defensive hockey. While they have young talent, Tocchet has them first and foremost being responsible defensively. As that young talent learns more and more, don't be surprised if they start getting more offense while still having their strong defensive game. A clear identity which when they play to it and deny their opponents the way they are capable of denying them, they win. Part of this could be attributed to Raanta whose out for a few weeks. We'll see.

4th - Montreal. This team completely transformed their identity from last season to this season which is amazing considering their coaching staff didn't change. Julien has gone from his possession/defensive style system to one that is very much like the way Tampa Bay plays. It's working. Kind of like the way the Blues changed their style of play in 15-16. Regardless of whether or not Montreal is winning or losing each night, the style of play is consistent from game-to-game. A team playing to their identity, even if it's a new one for the team.

That's 4 teams with clear identities which anyone can see and understand why each team wins or loses each night just watching their games.

So - what the heck are the Blues?

Recently, they clearly aren't a possession team being out shot 2-1 and generating basically no offensive zone pressure when not on the power play.

They aren't a defensive team, because they aren't denying high danger shots from their opponents. The last two games the number of shots from right in front of the goalie is ridiculously bad.

They aren't a heavy team, because they don't really hit anyone or have the size to hit anyone.

They don't play particularly fast. This is odd, because at least 9 of their forwards are capable of playing faster.

They don't have a good transition game most nights. However, when the Blues forwards stay deeper in their own zone and support the defense by staying closer to the defenseman, this looks really good with the forwards, not the defense, being keys to driving transition. See the Leafs game if you want to see the positive. Pick pretty much any other game and watch what happens when the Blues change lines while any Blues defenseman has possession in the Blues end and patiently waits for the change to complete. Those rarely result in anything positive for the Blues and usually wind up in the Blues end within 10-15 seconds with chances against.

They don't have a lights out goalie to rely upon - like the Rangers, Ducks, Lightning, or Predators.

What the heck is this team and what is their identity? It's up to a head coach to identify the talent he has on his roster and foster a team identity based on that talent. This team has none. That's on the head coach.

This is a major reason Yeo has to go. The team lacks any sort of consistency. Even when they win, there's no sense that they're going to suddenly go on a tear and win the next 10 games. Win one lose one, win one lose two, win two lose two, it's a guessing game which team will show up and that's not the mark of a champion. I don't see any reason why it would necessarily be bad to fire Yeo after a win. Winning a game shouldn't extend his leash because the big picture is crystal clear. They're going to lose tonight, guaranteed. It won't be a hard fought loss, it'll be a handy defeat, maybe on the order of 5-2, 6-2. Will they have the guts to fire Yeo after that? Probably not. We'll go a few games, lose a few, Yeo will teeter on the edge, they'll win a game 5-1 and he'll get pulled right back from said edge. Rinse, repeat all the way to a playoff miss and, by the way, sacrifice of a 1st round pick because they'll be just good enough to not get a top 10 and just bad enough to not make the playoffs--just like last year. Either be completely godawful or fire Yeo and make a push for the playoffs now before it's too late.

I really think they have an identity. They are David Perron.

Talented team that doesn't show up consistently, doesn't do the little things well, and fails to work when it really counts. Difficult to coach. Difficult to be a teammate with. Destined to never reach full potential.

I haven't watched more than a few minutes of a game all year. I won't until they send Perron packing. There's a reason STL is the only team to ever sign him to a pro contract, and it's not because we are brilliant.

Is it possible that Mike Yeo pulled a proverbial Mike Keenan on the team?

I read somewhere that Yeo was a divisive force in the lockerroom in Minnesota but that's speculation moreso than anything. I think the Blues lack of identity (I'd call it lack of direction, myself) is from the current coaching staff (excluding Chief)'s ability to coach the players to their strengths.

That's just from some of the games I've watched. Berube as coach really gave the team a shot in the arm and made me wonder how much trash the rest of the coaching staff (including Yeo) was/is if changing the head coach made that much of a difference.

Not sure on that last part, but I am aware that one thing that will divide a locker room is not treating all players equally when it comes to taking away ice time for mistakes.

See - Maroon - multiple icings in one game - never benched until way later. Blais - two icings in a 3rd period - off to the AHL.

Schmaltz (while he still sucks) - benched for an entire period for poor play. Bouwmeester playing just as poorly in the same game loses no ice time.

Thomas has one bad shift vs Chicago, winds up scratched for 3 games, and was still barely getting any ice time when he did get to play under Yeo. Has that happened to any other forwards, not named Blais or Kyrou, who had a bad shift in a game??

Those kinds of actions by head coaches will create divisiveness in a locker room and send the completely wrong message to veteran players. It's basically saying it doesn't matter one bit if the vet screws up, so why should the veteran try hard other than personal pride? At the same time, the younger player is now going to press, because he has to be perfect every shift to avoid getting benched. For comparison's sake, one could argue Barzal is the best player on the Isles, right? Well, early in the 3rd period of a 1-goal game, Barzal took a completely unnecessary high-sticking penalty that was avoidable. Trotz benched him for the rest of the game. Yes, Trotz benched the Isles best forward. The NY media even asked Trotz if he benched Barzal for that penalty. Straight up Trotz says (paraphrased) "Yes. Players have to learn not to make stupid, unnecessary mistakes in order to win tight games." Equal treatment for all players no matter your skill level. We already saw Berube NOT do this crap to Thomas, so that's a positive. But....

IMO, the Blues forwards, as a group, just play lazy hockey in most games and it shows on the ice with the defensemen and goaltenders being left holding the bag for the forwards lack of effort. When the forwards aren't playing lazy hockey, the Blues win games.

It's painfully easy to know if the Blues forwards aren't going to try on any given night. Just watch for a 1st period line change when the D has clear possession. If none of the forwards coming off the bench make any effort to skate into the defensive zone to help with transition (I'm not talking about a fly-by at the defensive blueline, but actually entering the defensive zone with the intent to provide the defense an easier outlet pass), the Blues are going to lose that game. Because once the forwards start relying on that lazy type of play, they don't get out of the habit the rest of the game. I lost count how many times they tried this vs the Jets and all the Jets did was keep 2 forwards between the Blues wingers and D while the Jets center floated at center ice to take away the center and block the cross-ice stretch pass.

Lazy play is ingrained in these players’ heads. It was as much a Yeo problem as it is still a player problem and Berube doesn’t have enough time to fix the problem. The problem will be fixed with big splash trades (Tarasenko and Pietrangelo and no, I’m not kidding) and hiring a coach who will work with the kids and change the entire culture around the team. Screw this season, keep the lottery protected pick away from Buffalo, get picks and prospects for Tarasenko and Pie and just reset with a completely new core. I have no issue with a total rebuild if it’s how the culture will change. Get rid of every last malcontent and start fresh.

Lose for Hughes!! Better jump all over that bandwagon.

Worried about having too many centers?? Trade Bozak!! Solved!

I have a hard time believing that all of a sudden Tank and Petro (and other guys that have disappeared like Schwartz) are lazy. Yes, I know Schwartz is currently injured, but it's not like he was going all Laine on other teams this year. These guys (and the Blues' signature stingy defense) have been lone bright spots over the last 3-4 years of overall mediocrity. Petro was even an All-Star last year, in the midst of the Yeo era. It's not like much changed between last season and this season (from a coaching/gameplan perspective).

So why are they now suddenly lazy? Tarasenko scored 37, 40, 39 and 33 goals the last 4 seasons. Why this year is he on pace to score only 26? You don't get lazy overnight. Have they just gotten increasingly used to mailing it in since there have been no repercussions over the course of the Yeo regime? If that were the case, you would think the level of effort would have changed immediately. We saw that in the last Nashville game, but not in the Winnipeg game obviously. So why the inconsistency?

If it's not laziness in relation to the transition game off of a line change, then are the still being coached to do the same thing that flat out does not work? I don't know. But that's the one thing I see that stands out dramatically between wins and losses.

Wins, the forwards are in the defensive zone, helping defensively, and supporting transition from the defense by being closer to the defensemen.

Most losses (I can only think of 2 exceptions being the Wild loss and the most recent Nashville loss), the forwards don't get as deep in the defensive zone and wind up waiting at center for 70 foot passes that never work.

It's not hard to see - even watching on television. You'll see a Blues defenseman skating out of a corner towards a wall looking up ice and the only players on the screen are the other Blues defenseman and an opposing forward - no Blues forwards in sight. Happens way too often. Seriously, go look at the good teams in the league right now and see how often any of them even attempt to do this. It's very rare compared to the Blues still seeming to rely on it. We'll see if it's gone after having more days of practice to get rid of it.

theohall wrote:Lose for Hughes!! Better jump all over that bandwagon.

Worried about having too many centers?? Trade Bozak!! Solved!

Nah, I wouldn't want to dump the 1st overall pick into a 3rd or 4th line role behind O'Reilly, Schenn and Thomas. I'd rather they get a winger who can step into the 1st line and do damage in the same way Patrik Laine does. Maybe some dude from Finland, and maybe a European coach who's worked with guys like him.

glen a richter wrote:

theohall wrote:Lose for Hughes!! Better jump all over that bandwagon.

Worried about having too many centers?? Trade Bozak!! Solved!

Nah, I wouldn't want to dump the 1st overall pick into a 3rd or 4th line role behind O'Reilly, Schenn and Thomas. I'd rather they get a winger who can step into the 1st line and do damage in the same way Patrik Laine does. Maybe some dude from Finland, and maybe a European coach who's worked with guys like him.

I don't think you realize how good Hughes is. Write him down as the American McDavid. He almost broke Matthews USTDP single season scoring record when he was one year younger than Matthews in the program. Anyone passing on him will be making a mistake. Had Hughes been on the under 18 team, instead of the under 17 team for half of 17-18, he probably would have broken Matthews Under-18 team 48 point record.

The relevant numbers in just USHL play:
Matthews 44GP G/GM 0.68 A/GM .86 Pts/GM 1.55
Hughes 27 GP G/GM .78 A/GM 1.22 Pts/GM 2.00

The per game totals went up when he jumped from U17 to U18 mid-season last year.

Those are Hughes numbers while he was still one year younger than Matthews.

If the Blues weren't losing so often, I wouldn't even be mentioning this, but since the team is playing itself into a lottery pick, has to be brought up.

If not Hughes, a likely better goal scoring guy would be Matthew Boldy over Kappo Kakko. Kakko is more of a play-maker.

I struggle mightily to wrap my head around the idea that the Blues will be consistently bad enough to secure the #1 pick in the draft, though I'm convinced they've dug themselves in deep enough to be assured of a top 10 pick. Your assessment of Hughes is promising, but assuming that they draft anywhere from 2-5 or so, how about Podkolzin? Been reading about how any team that has the chance but passes on him would be making a huge mistake. Real deal winger, also saw some comparisons to Tarasenko but better.

Since Army is apparently open to coaches from anywhere in the world, how about considering a guy who knows the Russians and draft accordingly? I've been looking at a number of mock drafts and researching the guys coming out this year and there's a number of players from Russia who would fill organizational needs. Podkolzin, Okhotuk at LHD, Mironov at LHD, Guskov at center.

Jack Hughes, C - can't miss
Kaapo Kakko, LW - more playmaker than goal scorer
Kirby Dach, C - the prototypical big center and a rare right-handed one
Matt Boldy, LW - scorer - wasn't on anyone's projected draft lists last year, now a sure top 6
Trevor Zegras -gets compared to Keller
And Podkolzin, RW. He's listed anywhere from 2 to 6 depending on the site you check.

Those are almost a consensus top 6. Anyone in the 2 through 6 slot could go at any of those positions in the draft. Who gets taken is likely going to be based on team needs.

What's interesting is the lack of top 10 D prospects. The only guy showing up is Bowen Byram. He is the kind of heavy minute, high hockey sense, high creativity, strong defensive, LD player the Blues could use if they aren't drafting in the top 6.

Projecting Russians, except for certain ones, is risky because of the whole KHL thing.