Tracking the Improbable...

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Postby Robb_K » Sat Jan 06, 2007 4:40 pm

I think reality will be a mix of the two. The Blues will not want (nor be able to) trade off ALL their veterans. JD, Checketts and even Pleau are not irrational. They realise that they could lose their UFAs in the off season. They can't necessarily expect Guerin and Tkachuk (assuming waiving of NTC) to return next season if they've gone to a Stanley Cup contender. They will probably try to resign Brewer (based on Murray's and JD's comments), and give Tkachuk and Guerin offers. If they don't sign, they likely be shopped. I assume The Blues will give Tkachuk the chance to be traded to a contender, telling him that if he wants to retire as a Blue that as a free agent, The Blues will be eligible to sign him again. They may ask Rucinsky if he wants to be traded to a contender. If they resign Brewer to a long-term, they may shop Salvador, or even Jackman. I think they'll see what teams offer for LeGace, and if they are out of the playoff race, AND teams bid against each other, and the offer is high enough (e.g. 1st rounder or semi-proven NHL-level scoring young forward) - they'll trade him. Drake will probably retire. I think Weight will stay, as he already took one for the team, and he got his long-term. They'll probably shop Cajanek, and trade him if they get a good offer. They might trade Sanford , if they get a good enough offer. But, overall, I doubt that more than 3 major trades will result (as Sillinger, Weight and Weinrich last season).

I'd like to see Guerin traded for a #1 draftchoice AND a young forward. I'd like to see Tkachuk traded for the same return (and then resigned in July). I really doubt that Guerin would resign with the Blues after going to a contender. I'd like to see the same happen with Weight, but because it happened last year, The Blues won't do it again, now. I'd like to see that with Brewer, too, too get the most future talent here. But that's almost impossible to occurr. Either he'll resign a long-term, or be traded to a contender, and then sign with the highest bidder in July.

One thing is sure: The Blues need to get a lot more young talent in the system, and also get more young legs and scoring, and reliable, confident defencemen onto the NHL roster. That SHOULD happen with a few major trades, and a couple of major UFA signings in July. I'm confident that will happen. The results probably won't be as good as we all would like. But I don't think they'll be as bad as some of the "doomsayers" on these Blues Fora are warning us about.
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Postby execwrite » Thu Jan 11, 2007 1:35 pm

The Blues keep closing the gap on the last playoff spot.

Upcoming schedule has one big problem and then a great opportunity.

After the Saturday home game vs. LA, they head west for four games. Could lose all of them. A 2-2 trip would be great.

After that, the Blues play 11 of the next 15 at home and all four road games are winnable.
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Postby cprice12 » Thu Jan 11, 2007 2:34 pm

I posted this link in another thread...but it is more appropriate here:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/West ... Blues.html

Based on standings, records and whatnot, it plays out the rest of the season millions of times and then displays the percentage of times a team made the playoffs.

I'm not sure how much it figures in the Blues recent hot streak, or how it can even figure that in...but it gives about a zero chance that we make it.

But in his simulated seasons...the Blues did end up finishing as high as 6th place a small percentage of the time.
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Postby Winning Unlimited » Thu Jan 11, 2007 3:26 pm

cprice12 wrote:I posted this link in another thread...but it is more appropriate here:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/West ... Blues.html

Based on standings, records and whatnot, it plays out the rest of the season millions of times and then displays the percentage of times a team made the playoffs.

I'm not sure how much it figures in the Blues recent hot streak, or how it can even figure that in...but it gives about a zero chance that we make it.

But in his simulated seasons...the Blues did end up finishing as high as 6th place a small percentage of the time.


He could just calculate the expected value using series of hypergeometric distributions.
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Postby BF44 » Thu Jan 11, 2007 3:39 pm

OPTIMEGUS wrote:He could just calculate the expected value using series of hypergeometric distributions.



Uhhhhhh, yeah........... :?
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Postby cprice12 » Thu Jan 11, 2007 4:17 pm

execwrite wrote:The Blues keep closing the gap on the last playoff spot.

Upcoming schedule has one big problem and then a great opportunity.

After the Saturday home game vs. LA, they head west for four games. Could lose all of them. A 2-2 trip would be great.

Yeah, this west coast trip is pretty important.
A couple of the teams they are playing (LA and Phoenix), they are chasing.
Wow...the Blues pretty much have must win games with a whopping 39 games to go. :lol:
The standings could look a lot differeent at the All-Star break.
They need to get as many points as they can while they are hot...because they figure to cool off sooner or later.

After that, the Blues play 11 of the next 15 at home and all four road games are winnable.

After beating the Devils in New Jersey...losing to anyone else on the road will seem disappointing.
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Postby execwrite » Thu Jan 11, 2007 4:30 pm

cprice12 wrote:
execwrite wrote:The Blues keep closing the gap on the last playoff spot.

Upcoming schedule has one big problem and then a great opportunity.

After the Saturday home game vs. LA, they head west for four games. Could lose all of them. A 2-2 trip would be great.

Yeah, this west coast trip is pretty important.
A couple of the teams they are playing (LA and Phoenix), they are chasing.
Wow...the Blues pretty much have must win games with a whopping 39 games to go. :lol:
The standings could look a lot differeent at the All-Star break.
They need to get as many points as they can while they are hot...because they figure to cool off sooner or later.

After that, the Blues play 11 of the next 15 at home and all four road games are winnable.

After beating the Devils in New Jersey...losing to anyone else on the road will seem disappointing.


I'll take wins in Phoenix and LA and losses in Anaheim and San Jose on this upcoming trip.

That's kind of how the rest of the season shapes up. Beat the teams ahead of you and break even with everybody else.
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Postby OS » Thu Jan 11, 2007 4:31 pm

74.3%

That's the percentage of points they have to earn the rest of the season to have a shot at making the playoffs.
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Postby bamabluesfan » Thu Jan 11, 2007 4:38 pm

OS wrote:74.3%

That's the percentage of points they Probably have to earn the rest of the season to have a shot at making the playoffs.


ftfy..

You tend assert things as fact when they are really probabilities.
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Postby OS » Thu Jan 11, 2007 4:47 pm

bamabluesfan wrote:ftfy..

You tend assert things as fact when they are really probabilities.


Did leaving the world probably out really bother you that much? :lol:
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Postby sanscrit » Thu Jan 11, 2007 6:03 pm

OS wrote:
bamabluesfan wrote:ftfy..

You tend assert things as fact when they are really probabilities.


Did leaving the world probably out really bother you that much? :lol:


yeah, beacause if they won 74.3% of their games and somehow managed to not make the playoffs, YOU WOULD HAVE HELL TO PAY!!!!!!11
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Postby bamabluesfan » Thu Jan 11, 2007 6:19 pm

OS wrote:
bamabluesfan wrote:ftfy..

You tend assert things as fact when they are really probabilities.


Did leaving the world probably out really bother you that much? :lol:


apparently :lol:

I badly need a vacation or or a beer.. or something
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Postby marco » Thu Jan 11, 2007 6:36 pm

sanscrit wrote:
OS wrote:
bamabluesfan wrote:ftfy..

You tend assert things as fact when they are really probabilities.


Did leaving the world probably out really bother you that much? :lol:


yeah, beacause if they won 74.3% of their games and somehow managed to not make the playoffs, YOU WOULD HAVE HELL TO PAY!!!!!!11


It's not the percentile of "games" they need to win, it's the percentile of "points" they need to earn!!! :wink:

Jeez, the nerve of some people! :lol:
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Postby BluesfaninMI » Thu Jan 11, 2007 8:22 pm

Theres also the chance they could get less than 74% and still make the playoffs, providing similiar showings by the other teams.


Im an LA Dodgers fan, and this season we were in last place on July 31st and by the end of the season they were tied for first place in their division and 2nd overall in the league.

Stranger things have happened. 8pts in 39 games is doable, and watching them try would be a lot more fun to watch than them mailing it again.
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Postby ledzeppelinfan1 » Thu Jan 11, 2007 10:53 pm

Assuming 95 points for a Western Conference playoff spot might be a bit high at this point, considering that the 7-8 spot teams don't have that great of records.

90 points could do it this year...which mean if we kept this up, then who knows. Really if we keep this up and watch this team climb, we will all eventually start to talk about it...

except for OS, as he would hate to be wrong, and will even come up with reasons as to why its good for this team to miss the playoffs to support his anti-playoff stance. :wink:
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Postby SMS Bleeds Blue » Fri Jan 12, 2007 12:34 am

The good: Current 8-seed Minnesota is on pace to finish with 88 points. The Blues have earned 15 points in their last 10 games.

The bad: The Blues aren't the hottest team in the Western Conference; Phoenix has earned 17 points in their last 10 games, and are only 5 points behind Minnesota. The Blues are 8-4-3 under Murray; if they continue at that pace for the remainder of the season, they'll finish with 86 points.

The ugly: There are six other teams who are (a) not currently in a playoff spot, and who are (2) ahead of or even with the Blues in the standings. The real difficulty isn't in erasing the 10-point gap between Minnesota and St. Louis; it's in climbing over half a dozen teams. On any given night, some of those teams will earn points; the Blues lose ground even on the nights they're not playing.
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Postby execwrite » Fri Jan 12, 2007 8:00 am

Here's my gameplan:

1) Beat LA Saturday
2) Split the four game West Coast trip
3) Win 10 of the next 15 games (11 home, 4 road games)
4) In the last 19 games of the season, go 13-6. I think that gets 89 points for the season
5) Hope that's enough to make the playoffs.
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Postby Blue Beagle » Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:12 am

SMS Bleeds Blue wrote:The good: Current 8-seed Minnesota is on pace to finish with 88 points. The Blues have earned 15 points in their last 10 games.

The bad: The Blues aren't the hottest team in the Western Conference; Phoenix has earned 17 points in their last 10 games, and are only 5 points behind Minnesota. The Blues are 8-4-3 under Murray; if they continue at that pace for the remainder of the season, they'll finish with 86 points.

The ugly: There are six other teams who are (a) not currently in a playoff spot, and who are (2) ahead of or even with the Blues in the standings. The real difficulty isn't in erasing the 10-point gap between Minnesota and St. Louis; it's in climbing over half a dozen teams. On any given night, some of those teams will earn points; the Blues lose ground even on the nights they're not playing.

So what you're saying is ... Press it that panic button :!:

No matter what this team needs to become financially viable to it's investors yesterday. And it is exciting to watch this team compete the way they are now. No matter how far remote if the hope hype and excitement puts fans in the seats that's a good thing.

So please carry on! :lol:

Go Blues!
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Postby OS » Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:17 am

ledzeppelinfan1 wrote:Assuming 95 points for a Western Conference playoff spot might be a bit high at this point, considering that the 7-8 spot teams don't have that great of records.

90 points could do it this year...which mean if we kept this up, then who knows. Really if we keep this up and watch this team climb, we will all eventually start to talk about it...

except for OS, as he would hate to be wrong, and will even come up with reasons as to why its good for this team to miss the playoffs to support his anti-playoff stance. :wink:


I'd love to be wrong in this case. :P I just think that if you look at the trend the last few years I don't think you can shoot for 90 points and assume that they'd make the playoffs.

Plus, as good as the Blues have been playing they haven't made up hardly any ground. They're still 10 points back with only 1 game on hand against the current 8th seed.
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Postby sanscrit » Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:28 am

if they can make the playoffs then Andy Murray will win the Jack Adams and Mike Kitchen will never coach again.
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