Tracking the Improbable...

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Postby BringBackZezel » Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:41 am

you guys act like this is the first time anyone's actually looked @ the numbers to figure out what it would take to make the playoffs.

I did this almost a month ago and everyone ignored it.

It's virtually impossible for this team to make the playoffs. They simply don't have the ability to pick up the 75% or so of points needed to get there.
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Postby execwrite » Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:54 am

BringBackZezel wrote:you guys act like this is the first time anyone's actually looked @ the numbers to figure out what it would take to make the playoffs.

I did this almost a month ago and everyone ignored it.

It's virtually impossible for this team to make the playoffs. They simply don't have the ability to pick up the 75% or so of points needed to get there.


Things change.

No one knows the ftuture.
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Postby Hollywood » Fri Jan 12, 2007 10:43 am

29. St. Louis Blues (29): They went 8-2-1 in their last 11 games, but gained precious little ground in the playoff race. Though Blues fans might not want to give up on the season just yet, an early fire sale should yield huge dividends for 2007-08 and beyond, especially if the Coyotes remain in the playoff hunt.



The pros get it.
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Postby cprice12 » Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:15 am

Hollywood wrote:
29. St. Louis Blues (29): They went 8-2-1 in their last 11 games, but gained precious little ground in the playoff race. Though Blues fans might not want to give up on the season just yet, an early fire sale should yield huge dividends for 2007-08 and beyond, especially if the Coyotes remain in the playoff hunt.



The pros get it.


The "Pros" ranked the Blues 29th when they had the 2nd best record in the NHL over those 11 games.

Nobody is saying we have a good shot at making the playoffs.
It's just interesting to discuss.
I think everyone knows it would be extremely difficult. They'd have to play extremely well for the rest of the season and they would need some teams to struggle a bit ahead of them (and a few of the teams ahead of them are struggling).

If they keep up their pace over the last 13 games, they will finish the season with 94 pts. That should be good enough to be right there at the end.

Do I think it will happen? No...probably not.

Is it possible? Absolutely.
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Postby BringBackZezel » Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:21 am

cprice12 wrote:
Hollywood wrote:
29. St. Louis Blues (29): They went 8-2-1 in their last 11 games, but gained precious little ground in the playoff race. Though Blues fans might not want to give up on the season just yet, an early fire sale should yield huge dividends for 2007-08 and beyond, especially if the Coyotes remain in the playoff hunt.



The pros get it.


The "Pros" ranked the Blues 29th when they had the 2nd best record in the NHL over those 11 games.

Nobody is saying we have a good shot at making the playoffs.
It's just interesting to discuss.
I think everyone knows it would be extremely difficult. They'd have to play extremely well for the rest of the season and they would need some teams to struggle a bit ahead of them (and a few of the teams ahead of them are struggling).

If they keep up their pace over the last 13 games, they will finish the season with 94 pts. That should be good enough to be right there at the end.

Do I think it will happen? No...probably not.

Is it possible? Absolutely.


Is it good for the franchise? Absolutely not.
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Postby execwrite » Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:30 am

The franchise needs to win games now and put fans back in the building.

Losing in order to get a better draft pick is not what professional sports are all about.
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Postby stlbluz » Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:42 am

All things considered, we need to look more at next season as opposed to making an appearance in the playoffs. The Blues have much more to gain by being sellers this year. I know I'll catch hell for saying this but we should have held onto Kitchen for about 10 more games.
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Postby Topshelf331 » Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:43 am

execwrite wrote:The franchise needs to win games now and put fans back in the building.

Losing in order to get a better draft pick is not what professional sports are all about.



Exactly, we can still build through the draft no matter where we pick from. It doesnt hurt the franchise to play well. Id rather play well and pick late, than play poorly, draft early and lose the franchise.
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Postby bamabluesfan » Fri Jan 12, 2007 12:09 pm

BringBackZezel wrote:
cprice12 wrote:
Hollywood wrote:
29. St. Louis Blues (29): They went 8-2-1 in their last 11 games, but gained precious little ground in the playoff race. Though Blues fans might not want to give up on the season just yet, an early fire sale should yield huge dividends for 2007-08 and beyond, especially if the Coyotes remain in the playoff hunt.



The pros get it.


The "Pros" ranked the Blues 29th when they had the 2nd best record in the NHL over those 11 games.

Nobody is saying we have a good shot at making the playoffs.
It's just interesting to discuss.
I think everyone knows it would be extremely difficult. They'd have to play extremely well for the rest of the season and they would need some teams to struggle a bit ahead of them (and a few of the teams ahead of them are struggling).

If they keep up their pace over the last 13 games, they will finish the season with 94 pts. That should be good enough to be right there at the end.

Do I think it will happen? No...probably not.

Is it possible? Absolutely.


Is it good for the franchise? Absolutely not.


BBZ, that is your opinion, I think the more money they make this year, the more buzz they generate with the casual fans the better off they will be. If after the trade deadline when there are still around 20 or 25 games they go in the tank, they will go back to losing money the same way they were at the beginning of the season. Even if they dont make the playoffs but keep the house pretty much packed to the end of the season, it is better for them financially. They have to find a balance between long term planning and short term profits, making a run at the playoffs is the best thing for the franchise. Asses in seats is the name of the game, everyone wants to win the Cup, but the Blues have to say solvent.

If by some miracle they make the playoffs, then they may be able to recoup the money they lost while the team was playing like ass (and we are talking rosanne barr ass not jessica biel ass).

The bottom line is money it is a business first, and they cant sustain the losses Bill Laurie could.
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Postby SMS Bleeds Blue » Fri Jan 12, 2007 12:29 pm

Didn't Forbes publish an analysis stating that the Blues actually broke even last year?

Granted, breaking even doesn't get you anywhere with regard to eliminating the debts -- but it doesn't make anything worse.
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Postby BringBackZezel » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:31 pm

bamabluesfan wrote:
BringBackZezel wrote:
cprice12 wrote:
Hollywood wrote:
29. St. Louis Blues (29): They went 8-2-1 in their last 11 games, but gained precious little ground in the playoff race. Though Blues fans might not want to give up on the season just yet, an early fire sale should yield huge dividends for 2007-08 and beyond, especially if the Coyotes remain in the playoff hunt.



The pros get it.


The "Pros" ranked the Blues 29th when they had the 2nd best record in the NHL over those 11 games.

Nobody is saying we have a good shot at making the playoffs.
It's just interesting to discuss.
I think everyone knows it would be extremely difficult. They'd have to play extremely well for the rest of the season and they would need some teams to struggle a bit ahead of them (and a few of the teams ahead of them are struggling).

If they keep up their pace over the last 13 games, they will finish the season with 94 pts. That should be good enough to be right there at the end.

Do I think it will happen? No...probably not.

Is it possible? Absolutely.


Is it good for the franchise? Absolutely not.


BBZ, that is your opinion, I think the more money they make this year, the more buzz they generate with the casual fans the better off they will be. If after the trade deadline when there are still around 20 or 25 games they go in the tank, they will go back to losing money the same way they were at the beginning of the season. Even if they dont make the playoffs but keep the house pretty much packed to the end of the season, it is better for them financially. They have to find a balance between long term planning and short term profits, making a run at the playoffs is the best thing for the franchise. Asses in seats is the name of the game, everyone wants to win the Cup, but the Blues have to say solvent.

If by some miracle they make the playoffs, then they may be able to recoup the money they lost while the team was playing like ass (and we are talking rosanne barr ass not jessica biel ass).

The bottom line is money it is a business first, and they cant sustain the losses Bill Laurie could.


I've heard the "financial benefits" arguement before, and it always ignores a few things:

1. the theoretical gains by the team possibly making the playoffs will be partially offset by the loss of financial obligations to the players traded away for future assets.
2. It doesn't account for the value of the savings of the players aquired from trading away UFAs and drafting higher.

Let me explain that last part:

Let's say they make the playoffs
-Attendance will gradually rise. Sellouts aren't really likely until the last month of the season, which is about how long it'll take the team to get into 8th place.
-If they play well enough to get 3 home games in the 1st round, that's another $3M in income. To expect more than that is pretty unrealitic.

In total, it could mean as much as an additional $10M in income for the Blues.


Let's say they don't plan on making the playoffs
-They trade away Guerin, Tkachuk, Brewer, and a couple others at the deadline. They save probably around $3M.
-They get a better draft pick, which increases the likelihood that they'll get an NHL regular who will have restricted pay for 5-8 seasons. (Sidney Crosby is the ultimate example. He's making $850K per season. How much would it cost to get like production out of another player? $5M? $7M? That's real savings....)
-They'll pick up additional draft picks/prospects from the deals, and all of those players will have restricted pay for 5-8 seasons.
-They'll be closer to building a team who can actually compete in the playoffs, meaning they could host as many as 16 playoff games per season, as opposed to the 3 they can hope for at most this season.


When you account for everything, there's much more money to be made (saved) by not making the playoffs.
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Postby OS » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:33 pm

... and what you fail to take into account is the hype built up by finishing the season strong. The reason why attendance will never be good this season is because season ticket sales, especially among corporate customers, are down so much. They way you get those customers back is by convincing them this year that they should spend money next year.
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Postby BringBackZezel » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:36 pm

OS wrote:... and what you fail to take into account is the hype built up by finishing the season strong. The reason why attendance will never be good this season is because season ticket sales, especially among corporate customers, are down so much. They way you get those customers back is by convincing them this year that they should spend money next year.


...and what you fail to account for is the fact that this team making the playoffs and losing in 4 or 5 games isn't going to sell season tickets.

If this team is ever going to win the cup and have real financial success, they need to stop accepting an 8th seed as success.
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Postby Hollywood » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:43 pm

...and what you fail to account for is the fact that this team making the playoffs and losing in 4 or 5 games isn't going to sell season tickets.



Precisely.

You know as well as I do...all we would hear is "Same ol' Blues"
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Postby sanscrit » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:45 pm

and for the record, that 25ish year streak was a joke anyway.
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Postby Blue Beagle » Fri Jan 12, 2007 1:57 pm

Wow, I've never seen anyone argue against the saying that winning games puts butts in the seats. :lol:

A firesale after the way this team has turned it around sends the wrong message to the fans, players, prospects, potential UFAs, coaches, casual fans, potential season ticket holders, fans and more fans.
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Postby Hollywood » Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:22 pm

Blue Beagle wrote:Wow, I've never seen anyone argue against the saying that winning games puts butts in the seats. :lol:


Who argued that?


A firesale after the way this team has turned it around sends the wrong message to the fans, players, prospects, potential UFAs, coaches, casual fans, potential season ticket holders, fans and more fans


What message does it send? We know we are not going to win this year so we are going to try and do everything we can to win in the future?
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Postby OS » Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:43 pm

BringBackZezel wrote:...and what you fail to account for is the fact that this team making the playoffs and losing in 4 or 5 games isn't going to sell season tickets.

If this team is ever going to win the cup and have real financial success, they need to stop accepting an 8th seed as success.


I didn't say anything about the playoffs. I said finishing strong.
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Postby OS » Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:44 pm

Hollywood wrote:What message does it send? We know we are not going to win this year so we are going to try and do everything we can to win in the future?


You and I understand that.... average Joe Blow gets pissed when their favorite players get traded.
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Postby northwest dave » Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:48 pm

I think that winning games and learning how to beat good team will help this team in the future regardless if they make the playoffs. Guys like Stempy, McClement, Jackman, etc. are learning how to "Murray Hockey" and that to me means next year and the years after will be better than any top 5 pick could bring.

And...I just want to see good solid hockey.

To disagree, one doesn't have to be disagreeable.
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