The Offseason

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TheoSqua
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Re: The Offseason

Post by TheoSqua »

JWatt (formerly PMS) wrote:
TheoSqua wrote:I would try to trade Perron as a part of a deal to obtain Bobby Ryan from Anaheim. The Ducks can't afford Bobby Ryan at the price he wants (He wants Perry/Getzlaf money) but the Blues can. That would give us our needed consistent 30 goal scorer, and in return Anaheim would be getting a cheaper offensive forward that has shown flashes of ability but that will come cheaper.

Then again Perron is younger than Ryan and could potentially hit Ryan's skill level fairly shortly, so it'd be a risk. Then again, Payne has used Perron pretty well and he's still on pace to score 21 goals a season under Payne.
The compensation for an offer sheet in the Getzlaf/Perry price range is a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick. They'd likely ask for a whole lot more, and if they don't get it, they'll probably just match. They only have $35MM committed to the cap for next year, and their only RFAs are Ryan and Wisniewski. Sure, Koivu, Selanne, and Niedermayer are UFAs, but as a rebuilding team, they aren't going to resign those guys. They'll likely just patch up their roster with guys who aren't wanted by other teams and are low risk, high reward signings (like we did with Guerin a few years back).

Well it's about as likely as landing Kovalchuk. Honestly it's not going to be easy to buy an elite scorer. They're either going to give one 20-25% of our cap space on the open market, or They're going to break the farm overpaying on talent to acquire one.

It's why I think the best bet is to invest in more defense. The Blues don't necessarily need to score more goals than they currently are to win, they just need to score more goals than the other team. If we can get a better cost by investing in limiting the other teams goals, then it would make sense to go that route.
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DaDitka
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Re: The Offseason

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TheoSqua wrote: It's why I think the best bet is to invest in more defense. The Blues don't necessarily need to score more goals than they currently are to win, they just need to score more goals than the other team. If we can get a better cost by investing in limiting the other teams goals, then it would make sense to go that route.

There are currently only two teams in playoff position that have scored fewer goals then the Blues and none in our conference.

That said, I do think you have a valid point that the defense and goal tending will be just as big a factor this offseason.

One could make a fair argument that if Boyes were merely on pace for 30 and Jackman and Brewer were replaced with Weaver clones, the Blues would be comfortably in the playoffs.
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Re: The Offseason

Post by TheoSqua »

There's a lot of arguments that can be made regarding if little changes were made we'd be comfortably in the playoffs.

If the team could have held on to half the 8 games the team has lost when leading after 2 periods, if Boyes/Kariya hadn't forgotten how to score, if Conklin had played in a few games that Mason gave up soft goals by the handful, if the team had been coached more aggressively from the beginning of the season, etc. etc. etc.

It's why I think it won't take a drastic overhaul to get the team back into playoff contention next season. If your goal is to win the cup next season, then yeah... this team might not cut it, but the cup is a crapshoot anyway.
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Re: The Offseason

Post by DaDitka »

TheoSqua wrote:
It's why I think it won't take a drastic overhaul to get the team back into playoff contention next season..
Well Paulie is walking, Steen and Carl are FAs, you have to rid yourself of one or both of Jackman and Brewer, you have to sign a #1 goaltender, and you need more scoring.

That's pretty 'drastic' to me.
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Re: The Offseason

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Boyes, Backes, Berglund, Oshie, Perron.

that's 5 guys on our roster expected to score goals (to varying degrees of expectation- Oshie maybe the lowest, Boyes probably the highest).

I guess what I'm getting at here is that if these guys (and heck if you throw Steen in there) have even decent seasons, we don't need (or shouldn't) an elite scorer, as much of the talk has been about on this board.

I forget who said it, but I liked the mention of the 'Yotes and Avs. They don't have a single guy blowing $hit up year in, year out. They put together a successful formula. I would be just as happy as the next Blues fan to see Kovy in a bluenote, but it's not one size fits all.
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DaDitka
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Re: The Offseason

Post by DaDitka »

WaukeeBlues wrote:Boyes, Backes, Berglund, Oshie, Perron.

that's 5 guys on our roster expected to score goals (to varying degrees of expectation- Oshie maybe the lowest, Boyes probably the highest).

I guess what I'm getting at here is that if these guys (and heck if you throw Steen in there) have even decent seasons, we don't need (or shouldn't) an elite scorer, as much of the talk has been about on this board.

I forget who said it, but I liked the mention of the 'Yotes and Avs. They don't have a single guy blowing $hit up year in, year out. They put together a successful formula. I would be just as happy as the next Blues fan to see Kovy in a bluenote, but it's not one size fits all.

Fair enough, but you not only have to have those guys score 20 -25 more goals next season, you'll have to replace another 30 or so from Paulie and Walt.

So the the point is, do you look to one top end guy to better your team or do you count on 5 guys all playing better, resigning Steen and having him match his now career high totals, and replace another 30 goals.
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Re: The Offseason

Post by glen a richter »

Just because Peoria sucks doesn't mean that the lousy stats of the guys down there will translate to lousy stats at the NHL level. The fact that the goaltending is so hideous down there really makes the offense press. I think guys like Eller and Junland (if moved to a forward position) will do just fine offensively next season given a full season of ice time at the NHL level. Maybe not 30 goals fine, but I think we should expect 30 from Perron + whatever FA they pick up or trade they make.
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Re: The Offseason

Post by The Flake »

You kinda left off McDonald & Kariya on that list.

Anyhoo, I believe they will resign Kariya for next season....maybe two if the price is right. I think they gotta let Walt walk. He's just lost to much jump (not that there was much speed there to begin with)

The thing that I think we all have to look forward to is the young scoring talent on this team improving. I will guarantee they will all increase their point and goal totals of this year especially under Payne. I include Boyes in the young talent on this team BTW. Another young scoring guy you left off is Johnson. He's shown signs of becoming an amazing offensive asset capable of 20 goals himself given time. The stat I look to for offensive capabilities is the even strength goal diferential. Since Payne took over, I think it went from a -24 to a -3 if I'm remembering correctly. That's a difference maker that will show next season given a chance.

Plus look at how many 20+ goal scorers we are going to have on this team this year. What.. possibly end the season w/ 6-7. That's pretty good considering most teams in the NHL.

I don't know if anyone has stated this yet but, we need an elite goaltender for this team to remain in constant contension for the cup (and to dump Brewer). I think the other problems other than some tweeks will work themselves out.
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Re: The Offseason

Post by glen a richter »

Murray was an old school coach, and it showed in his inability to get anything out of any of his younger players.

I would hope that Payne will run some voluntary summer practices and clinics to get the kids doing something worth a damn, and I'd hope that the kids are ready and willing to participate. Given a full season to do it, I think they'll be fine. I also think that Payne deserves a full season from training to playoffs to show that he can get the kids firing on all cylinders. If he can't get it done in one season, go look for a new coach. But for shit sake, don't go with a Murray 2.0. Torts will be canned from his job with the Rangers soon enough.
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Re: The Offseason

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glen a richter wrote:Just because Peoria sucks doesn't mean that the lousy stats of the guys down there will translate to lousy stats at the NHL level. The fact that the goaltending is so hideous down there really makes the offense press. I think guys like Eller and Junland (if moved to a forward position) will do just fine offensively next season given a full season of ice time at the NHL level. Maybe not 30 goals fine, but I think we should expect 30 from Perron + whatever FA they pick up or trade they make.

You can bank on Junland moving up to the the NHL and changing positions, and I'll bet you could get more goals out of Crombeen. (Oh, and I don't like Crombeen either)

Either way, it's speculation and you have better odds of hitting the power ball the either of them (BJ or JJ) approaching 15 to 20 goals up here next year.

I WANT to develop our own talent, I just don't understand how so many around here bank on kids that have been pedestrian at lower levels coming through an organization that has been one of the worst in the league at developing talent over the last 30 years.

I'm not trying to argue with anyone here, I just really can't even see where many are coming from on these expectations for these kids. Many wrote the exact same things about Eller and Pie last offseason and look what you got.

We need to hope for help from Perioa, but nothing suggests we should expect it.
To each their own, I just don't get it.
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Re: The Offseason

Post by DaDitka »

glen a richter wrote:Murray was an old school coach, and it showed in his inability to get anything out of any of his younger players.

I would hope that Payne will run some voluntary summer practices and clinics to get the kids doing something worth a damn, and I'd hope that the kids are ready and willing to participate. Given a full season to do it, I think they'll be fine. I also think that Payne deserves a full season from training to playoffs to show that he can get the kids firing on all cylinders.

:plusplus:

As long as you don't bring Mason back, Payne had a sick attraction to him.
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Re: The Offseason

Post by glen a richter »

One day when the Blues are back to winning presidents trophies and making first round playoff exits every year, we'll look back on this era and laugh.
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Re: The Offseason

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glen a richter wrote:One day when the Blues are back to winning presidents trophies and making first round playoff exits every year, we'll look back on this era and laugh.

Or cry......
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Re: The Offseason

Post by philco_3 »

DaDitka wrote:
glen a richter wrote:One day when the Blues are back to winning presidents trophies and making first round playoff exits every year, we'll look back on this era and laugh.

Or cry......
I'll just hang my head in shame.
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Re: The Offseason

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glen a richter wrote:One day when the Blues are back to winning presidents trophies and making first round playoff exits every year, we'll look back on this area and laugh.
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Re: The Offseason

Post by JWatt (formerly PMS) »

TheoSqua wrote:It's why I think it won't take a drastic overhaul to get the team back into playoff contention next season. If your goal is to win the cup next season, then yeah... this team might not cut it, but the cup is a crapshoot anyway.
Generally, the Cup is not a crapshoot. Since the NHL went to a Conference based playoff system in 1994, one of the top two seeds in each conference have won the Cup 14 out of 16 times. The only lower seeds to win the Cup were Detroit (3rd in 1998) and Pittsburgh (4th in 2009). You at least have to be a top 4 seed in your conference to win the Cup.

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Re: The Offseason

Post by WaukeeBlues »

JWatt (formerly PMS) wrote:
TheoSqua wrote:It's why I think it won't take a drastic overhaul to get the team back into playoff contention next season. If your goal is to win the cup next season, then yeah... this team might not cut it, but the cup is a crapshoot anyway.
Generally, the Cup is not a crapshoot. Since the NHL went to a Conference based playoff system in 1994, one of the top two seeds in each conference have won the Cup 14 out of 16 times. The only lower seeds to win the Cup were Detroit (3rd in 1998) and Pittsburgh (4th in 2009). You at least have to be a top 4 seed in your conference to win the Cup.
The 05-06 Oilers disagree with you.

Granted they didn't win the cup but they took it to game 7 of the Cup Finals. I feel about the Cup Finals the way I do about the NCAA tourney- it's whoever is hot and playing good coming in. Pittsburgh rode that end of year hot streak last year with Bylsma and Detroit was just sitting on sickening talent who had been on automatic-winning-pilot all year. You generally see the same kind of pattern with all teams that end up in the Finals, they just go on rolls, some, like the 03-04 Mighty Ducks and 05-06 Oilers- insanely so.
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Re: The Offseason

Post by JWatt (formerly PMS) »

WaukeeBlues wrote:
JWatt (formerly PMS) wrote:
TheoSqua wrote:It's why I think it won't take a drastic overhaul to get the team back into playoff contention next season. If your goal is to win the cup next season, then yeah... this team might not cut it, but the cup is a crapshoot anyway.
Generally, the Cup is not a crapshoot. Since the NHL went to a Conference based playoff system in 1994, one of the top two seeds in each conference have won the Cup 14 out of 16 times. The only lower seeds to win the Cup were Detroit (3rd in 1998) and Pittsburgh (4th in 2009). You at least have to be a top 4 seed in your conference to win the Cup.
The 05-06 Oilers disagree with you.

Granted they didn't win the cup but they took it to game 7 of the Cup Finals. I feel about the Cup Finals the way I do about the NCAA tourney- it's whoever is hot and playing good coming in. Pittsburgh rode that end of year hot streak last year with Bylsma and Detroit was just sitting on sickening talent who had been on automatic-winning-pilot all year. You generally see the same kind of pattern with all teams that end up in the Finals, they just go on rolls, some, like the 03-04 Mighty Ducks and 05-06 Oilers- insanely so.
And what happened to those Oilers? Same thing that happened to the 94 Canucks, the 98 Capitals, the 99 Sabres, the 02 Hurricanes, the 03 Mighty Ducks, and the 04 Flames, they lost. The big teams almost always win the Cup. I don't care about finishing in 2nd, I care about winning the Cup. Only top teams win the Cup.

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Re: The Offseason

Post by DaDitka »

JWatt (formerly PMS) wrote:I don't care about finishing in 2nd, I care about winning the Cup. Only top teams win the Cup.


:plusplus: :plusplus: :plusplus: :plusplus: :plusplus: :plusplus: :plusplus:
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Re: The Offseason

Post by stlbluz »

THE WATERCOOLER

QUESTION: If you had to identify your top two or three areas of concern with this Blues team that need to be addressed this offseason, what would they be?

JEREMY RUTHERFORD
1. Who are the leaders in the locker room? That’s not something that management can create or go out and buy, but this team needs to discover who its leader is. With respect to Eric Brewer, I think we’re witnessing a changing of the guard in the locker room with the emergence of David Backes. Backes (along with Chris Mason) stands at his locker stall after every game, win or lose, willing to answer all questions. With the probable retirement of Keith Tkachuk and the likely departure of Paul Kariya, Backes’ leadership skills should blossom next season.

2. Finding a killer instinct. This team doesn’t have one. Even though the Blues have played well and won on the road, I don’t sense a killer instinct in those games either. They simply play better and deserve to win those games. At home, the desire to close a team out is non-existent. Again, this isn’t something that management can buy at the mall, but somewhere the Blues need to find it.

3. Finally, an area that management will be responsible for . . . signing the right free agent. The Blues will be in the market for a scoring threat, and it’s MANDATORY that JD and Co. do their homework. Five years ago, the club signed anyone with an NHL resume who would come to St. Louis because the Blues had to put a competitive team on the ice. The Blues have a good foundation now, but they need a significant piece to the puzzle . . . a goal scorer. The club can’t be afraid to take a risk, but it must be confident with its selection. The top offensive players in the market will be expensive, and if you fail to find the right player, it will handcuff the organization for years to come.

JEFF GORDON
Ideally, the Blues add three elements: 1) A real offensive defenseman to play in the Top Four, when Erik Johnson isn’t on the ice; 2) Another offensively skilled center; 3) Goaltender of the future – somebody stuck in the AHL or in a back-up role elsewhere. I like what Lars Eller will add next year on the offensive side, but Ian Cole might need time on the Peoria D before he’s ready to help. Ditto Alex Pietrangelo.

KEVIN WHEELER (Host of “Sports Open Line” on KMOX)
Scoring and goaltending, in that order. The only reason I mention goaltending is that Chris Mason remains unsigned beyond the end of this season. I’d have no problem with bringing him back and once again teaming him with Ty Conklin but as long as they don’t have a No. 1 goalie under contract that remains an area of significant need. Lots of fans ache for the “long-term answer” in goal but that’s not a top priority in my mind. Just get the best guy you can right now so you can win games.

The primary need, however, is for a frontline scorer. This team has plenty of guys who can score but they need someone who has a proven track record of doing it year in and year out. The Blues young offensive players will continue to progress, Andy McDonald will always be productive and guys like David Backes and Alex Steen will contribute as well but they need a Goal Scorer. Capital G, capital S. Someone who scores 35-40 goals as a matter of routine not just “in any given year.”

Pickings are slim on the free agent market with only Ilya Kovalchuk and Patrick Marleau fitting that description as potential UFA’s and there’s no guarantee they both make it to the market. The Blues will definitely have the cap space to add a salary of some magnitude but they may have to acquire the Goal Scorer via trade. They’ve lost something like 15 one goal games this year and a premier sniper might have helped steal a handful of those. They’d be in the playoffs right now if that were the case. The long-term future will have to take a back seat to the immediate future at some point, won’t it?

ANDY STRICKLAND (Hockeybuzz.com, KFNS)
This summer will be interesting to see how successful Doug Armstrong will be in making his presence felt as the new GM of the Blues.

The biggest difference, in my opinion, between this team vs. last year when the Blues reached the playoffs is last season’s club had more players willing to sacrifice and do whatever it took to win a hockey game. This team has good guys on the roster but they could certainly use a little more character on the ice. I’ve said it over and over this year, the Blues need veteran players (not over the hill) who have a history of winning in this league. It would be nice to see a few players come on board and teach the majority of these players what it takes to win in the NHL.

If you want to focus on personnel sure they could use an elite level goal scorer, who doesn’t? When you look at the teams who compete for a Stanley Cup they rarely lack star power. Usually a winning team carries at least one superstar. I don’t see any superstars on the St. Louis Blues. Can they get one this summer? It would more likely come via trade as opposed to a big-time free agent signing. Besides that, I would look to see if I could find a true number one D-man who can not only log minutes but also run a world class power play and be counted on to shut down the opposition on a consistent basis. The Blues have numerous two’s and three’s, unfortunately I don’t see a No. 1 D-man.

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