Spring Training 2011

[dmiles2186]

I figured we should try to continue bringing this board back to life.

Big questions this year, aside from Big Al. Freese is back. Is Berkman too old to play RF? Is Rasmus ready to be a 5 tool player he's advertised as? Will a Theriot/Schu middle infield be a gaping hole defensively? Will Lohse not suck for the first time in 3 years?

[cardsfan04]

I'm really nervous about this year for a few reasons. I mean, we have the potential to be contenders and even win the WS. But, we need a lot of things to go our way.

- Freese has been good when he has played. But, in both seasons he's been up, he's missed significant time. Not that he's been unsuccessful when healthy, but he's only been successful for a couple months at a time, which many bench players can do before being exposed. I don't think he's a bench player, but he's relatively unproven nonetheless, on top of his injury issues.

-Berkman hasn't played much in the outfield for 7 years. That's a really long time to hope for him to come back and make an impact. If he's a 20HR/80RBI guy that is moderately adequate in the OF, I'll be ~pleased. And, if we want to compete for a title, that's a ~low bar.

-Rasmus has been inconsistent. He has all the abillity to succeed. But, he hasn't lived up to the hype yet. Given his issues with LaRussa and wanting out of STL, I'm worried he never will. His attitude might not be in the right place (although players clashing w/ LaRussa is hardly new).

-I don't know what to think of Theriot yet, and Shumaker could bounce back. Wouldn't surprise me. Good news about them is that expectations are low. They just need to be average.

-Holliday/Pujols/pitching/Molina I'm not worried about.

-This is the big one. We have no wiggle room if we have injuries or underachievers. DeWitt won't spend more money. And, we don't have a great farm system to get a band-aid fix for the year if somebody goes down. I just don't see how we can overcome much in terms of injuries. Reds will probably be slightly better this year. Brewers will be contenders too. They can hit, but couldn't score. Adding Greinke and Marcum makes them dangerous. I think it will take 93-95 wins to win this division this year. If we have injuries, and no fixes, we will struggle.

[DaDitka]

The best prediction I head for this upcoming season is that Rasmus will weight 94 pounds by the end of July from running after so many balls in the gaps.

We have the worst (defensive) corner outfielders in the league, Skip rated out as the worst (regular) fielder in the game last year, and we took a step back defensively at short....

So yeah, game on...

[dmiles2186]

Great. Wainwright's hurt. Yay.

[DaDitka]

Tommy John Surgery!!!!!!!

SH*T!!!!!!!!

[abc789987]

[cardsfan04]

I (Frank) woke up to this. Sure sounds like Tommy John to me, but who knows.

What really really concerns me is that if we can't sign Pujols in the offseason (and I'm optimistic, but nervous), this year more or less becomes our only window of opportunity depending on how we replace Pujols. Without Wainright, this year looks MUCH more bleak.

[DaDitka]

What really really concerns me is that if we can't sign Pujols in the offseason (and I'm optimistic, but nervous),

Your not optimistic or nervous, your naive.

[cardsfan04]

What really really concerns me is that if we can't sign Pujols in the offseason (and I'm optimistic, but nervous),

Your not optimistic or nervous, your naive.

It could be argued that anybody who thinks there is a different team willing to give a 31yo a 10 year $300 million contract is naive. There aren't that many teams to bid against the Cards. If you thought there was a chance of the Cards resigning him this past offseason, it should not be a surprise if they get him this upcoming offseason. And, the Cards are more likely to give an offer they expect him to accept when they aren't the only team bidding. I was called naive when I said the exact same thing about the Cardinals letting Holliday test free agency. How many teams made big offers to him?

His asking price will likely go down when nobody gives him the monster contract he wants.

And, it is possible to be optimistic, nervous and naive at the same time.

[dmiles2186]

Will definitely be interesting to see how this pans out. You still have Carp, Garcia, Westbrook, and Lohse (blech). The report I read this morning said McClellan has the inside track to the 5th starter. I'd be okay with that. We've got a guy like Ian Snell trying to make the team too. There are others bu tlike La Russa said, the replacement will come from within. Let's just hope this isn't like '07 and '08? when our notable starters were down and we were rolling Mike Maroth, Kip Wells, Braden Looper, Todd Wellemeyer, etc. out there. Please just be Wainwright. No one else needs to get hurt on our rotation.

[DaDitka]

If you thought there was a chance of the Cards resigning him this past offseason, it should not be a surprise if they get him this upcoming offseason.

That's the difference. I at no time expected them to resign him. It simply doesn't fit their business model and never did. If they were set on capping the payroll at 110 mill (as Dewitt has said it will be) and you had any interest what so ever in giving Albert 28 mill a year, I don't think they would have given all that money to Holiday.

The two of them and Wayno would eat up HALF of your entire payroll.

[cardsfan04]

If you thought there was a chance of the Cards resigning him this past offseason, it should not be a surprise if they get him this upcoming offseason.

That's the difference. I at no time expected them to resign him. It simply doesn't fit their business model and never did. If they were set on capping the payroll at 110 mill (as Dewitt has said it will be) and you had any interest what so ever in giving Albert 28 mill a year, I don't think they would have given all that money to Holiday.

The two of them and Wayno would eat up HALF of your entire payroll.

Fair enough. I interpreted the Holliday signing differently as I thought the Cards committed to signing Pujols when they did that.

Would you have any interest in an avatar bet? If Pujols signs with the Cards, I choose your avatar for a month. If he signs elsewhere, you choose mine for a month.

[DaDitka]

If you thought there was a chance of the Cards resigning him this past offseason, it should not be a surprise if they get him this upcoming offseason.

That's the difference. I at no time expected them to resign him. It simply doesn't fit their business model and never did. If they were set on capping the payroll at 110 mill (as Dewitt has said it will be) and you had any interest what so ever in giving Albert 28 mill a year, I don't think they would have given all that money to Holiday.

The two of them and Wayno would eat up HALF of your entire payroll.

Fair enough. I interpreted the Holliday signing differently as I thought the Cards committed to signing Pujols when they did that.

Would you have any interest in an avatar bet? If Pujols signs with the Cards, I choose your avatar for a month. If he signs elsewhere, you choose mine for a month.

Only two rules......nothing Redwings......Nothing Packers.....and your on.

[cardsfan04]

If you thought there was a chance of the Cards resigning him this past offseason, it should not be a surprise if they get him this upcoming offseason.

That's the difference. I at no time expected them to resign him. It simply doesn't fit their business model and never did. If they were set on capping the payroll at 110 mill (as Dewitt has said it will be) and you had any interest what so ever in giving Albert 28 mill a year, I don't think they would have given all that money to Holiday.

The two of them and Wayno would eat up HALF of your entire payroll.

Fair enough. I interpreted the Holliday signing differently as I thought the Cards committed to signing Pujols when they did that.

Would you have any interest in an avatar bet? If Pujols signs with the Cards, I choose your avatar for a month. If he signs elsewhere, you choose mine for a month.

Only two rules......nothing Redwings......Nothing Packers.....and your on.

For me, nothing KU or Blackhawks, and deal.

[cardsfan04]

Does anybody know how this affects Wainright's contract in regard to free agency?

It's been awhile since I looked at his contract. But, I'm pretty sure the only condition on his option being automatically picked up next offseason is that he finishes the year off of the DL. If he has Tommy John surgery, he will finish the season on the DL, which I assume would make him a free agent. I suppose if he has surgery, and he is recovering well, they could activate him in late September, but not play him, to avoid him becoming a free agent.

[glen a richter]

I had two trades that involved Wainwright vetoed by my league. At the time, I thought they were both very fair trades and the guy I was trading with agreed completely, even questioning the league as to why they'd veto the deal twice.

Wainwright was going my way, and I'm thrilled the trade was vetoed.

[dmiles2186]

Wainwright set to have Tommy John.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball ... 2bc8b.html

JUPITER, Fla. • St. Louis Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright will require Tommy John surgery to repair his elbow and he will miss the entire 2011 season, the club confirmed this morning.

General manager John Mozeliak made the announcement at about 10 a.m. St. Louis time after a discussion with the pitcher and the team physician. All parties had been waiting on the results of a second opinion requested Wednesday evening from Dr. Lewis Yocum in the Los Angeles area.

"We have confirmed that Adam Wainwright will require Tommy John surgery. So obviously, he'll be out for the year," Mozeliak said. "Not a real surprise to us, but certainly a disappointment and a finality to this process. As we look to the future now we certainly beleive that we have a strong starting rotation on this club. And now we're going to have to try and fill it in terms of a fifth spot."

The surgery date has not been set, but Wainwright will have the procedure done in St. Louis by Cardinals physician George Paletta.

Mozeliak said that the recovery is usually 12 to 15 months.

"You're losing an ace," Mozeliak said. "It's not something you can replace over night."

Mozeliak and manager Tony La Russa both repeated Wednesday's opinion that their first step will be to fill the spot from within. Kyle McClellan shifted into the starters' workout group on Wednesday, and other candidates have been identified, from Raul Valdes to Lance Lynn. La Russa said he has six or seven candidates in mind for the opening, and it's possible that a committee could form to fill that spot through the season until one seizes the job.

McClellan and Ian Snell are two of the pitchers with starting intent or starting experience who will throw to hitters today at camp.

While acknowledging the team will be open-minded about the options outside the organization, Mozeliak downplayed his interest in the free agent market at this point.

"We haven't played a game yet, that throws a wrench into a little bit," Mozeliak said. "Internally we don't want to have a knee-jerk response to this. We certainly feel we have some players in camp that can fill this role."

Wainwright has twice previously had difficulty with his right elbow. In 2004, he was diagnosed with a sprain in the ligament, and back in high school he also had a similar problem. The Cardinals had him skip his last start of 2010 because of irritation in his forearm -- a condition that he later acknowledged was related to a partially torn ligament in his elbow. A followup exam in November assured the righthander that the structure of his elbow was sound, and several weeks ago he insisted that he wasn't pitching with the fear the ligament was going to "pop" at any time.

Mozeliak said even in hindsight it's unlikely that the team would have handled Wainwright's prep or his physicals different.

"We obviously knew this risk existed," Mozeliak said. "But I don't think you change a thing. He pitched very well with it. Unfortunately the time finally came when surgery was required."

-30-

[glen a richter]

2 seasons after Tommy John you have yourself a brand new pitcher. Wainwright could win 25 in 2013.

[dmiles2186]

2 seasons after Tommy John you have yourself a brand new pitcher. Wainwright could win 25 in 2013.

He will also be 32, so we're missing 1-2 prime years here. But it could extend his career, I suppose.

[cardsfan04]

So depressing. The effect of this won't be the difference in wins between him and McClellan (or whomever wins the spot). It will be difference in wins between what he would have done and Carpenter does, what Carpenter would have done against vs #2's and what Garcia/Westbrook does, etc. And, how the bullpen is affected. If McClellan takes the 5th starter spot, that leaves a hole in the bullpen. Ideally, somebody else will step up so McClellan can be solid from the bullpen. Although, if Boggs can be more consistent, we have 7th, 8th, 9th inning potentially set, which makes McClellan more expendable.