Expansion draft predictions

[theohall]

Who do you see the Blues protecting and exposing? I know, this may change depending on what happens in the next 96 hours.

Protected
Allen, Pietrangelo, Parayko, Edmundson, Tarasenko, Stastny, Schwartz, Steen, Perron, Berglund, Brodziak (1G, 3D, 7F)

Exposed
Hutton, Bouwmeester, Gunnarson, Bortuzzo, Lehtera, Jaskin, Reaves

Exempt
Fabbri (exempt, because he only played 3 games in the AHL which doesn't count as a full professional season)

Had Parayko not played 17 games with the Wolves in 14-15, he would be exempt, also.

Vegas could also take an AHL guy has more than 2 years of AHL/NHL combined time. In other words, Vegas could take Jordan Schmaltz (2 years at AHL and under contract) and that would count as the Blues player taken.

I see Vegas taking Bouwmeester to help them hit their cap number. However, McPhee rebuilt the Capitals by scrapping veterans and building mostly via the draft beginning with Ovechkin. I wouldn't be surprised to see McPhee draft mostly younger players with a few key higher priced veterans to reach the expansion mandated cap floor(*) and provide some experienced leadership. That youth thing could lead him to taking someone like Schmaltz, instead.

The list of current AHL guys they could take:
Paajarvi, Rattie, Lindbohm, Copley, Megan, Schmaltz, and Butler

*: The Las Vegas franchise must select players with an aggregate Expansion Draft value that is between 60-100% of the prior season's upper limit for the salary cap.

[glen a richter]

Still sticking to my prediction they take Bouwmeester. I see a good likelihood that they just hand Vegas a draft pick in exchange for guaranteeing they'll take Bouwmeester.

[thekortehaus]

Without knowing who has mandatory protection via NMC, I'd guess Bouwmeester or Bortuzzo

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[WaukeeBlues]

See if I was McPhee I wouldn't give a rat's behind about the salary cap. I'd pick the best player/prospect available from each team and then if I needed to wheel and deal after the fact to get to the floor I would.

There are PLENTY of dead weight contracts that Vegas can pick up to get to the floor in this league. That should be the least of their worries.

[flyingnote38]

assuming CapFriendly's list of eligible and exempt players is correct, I think I would opt for the 7 forwards, 3 d and 1 G option and protect:

Tarasenko, Steen, Schwartz, Berglund, Jaskin, Stastny, Perron(?)
Pietrangelo, Edmundson, Gunnarsson
Allen

obviously, if Parayko is not exempt, I protect him over Gunnarsson

And I'd look into trying to make a deal with Vegas (offer a draft pick) to draft Bouw (but I know Army won't and will likely protect Bouw)



Tarasenko, Vladimir
Stastny, Paul
Steen, Alexander
Schwartz, Jaden
Lehtera, Jori
Perron, David
Berglund, Patrik
Sobotka, Vladimir
Yakupov, Nail
Reaves, Ryan
Jaskin, Dmitrij
Brodziak, Kyle
Upshall, Scottie
Paajarvi, Magnus
Ferraro, Landon
Rattie, Ty
Agostino, Kenny
Agozzino, Andrew
Doty, Jacob
Malone, Brad
Friesen, Alex
Caron, Jordan

DEFENSE
Pietrangelo, Alex
Bouwmeester, Jay
Gunnarsson, Carl
Edmundson, Joel
Bortuzzo, Robert
Lindbohm, Petteri
Butler, Chris
McNeill, Reid
Ellis, Morgan

GOALTENDER
Allen, Jake
Hutton, Carter
Binnington, Jordan

Exempt
MacEachern, Mackenzie
Fabbri, Robby
Sanford, Zachary
Kyrou, Jordan
Barbashev, Ivan
Musil, Adam
Bleackley, Conner
Selman, Justin
Blais, Samuel
Megan, Wade
Thompson, Tage
Schmaltz, Jordan
Parayko, Colton
Dunn, Vince
Vannelli, Thomas
Sergeev, Dmitrii
Walman, Jake
Husso, Ville
Opilka, Luke
Fitzpatrick, Evan

[theohall]

The Blues don't have any players who have to be protected due to NMCs (there is a difference between NMC and NTC. No Blues players have a NMC).

Whether or not Parayko is exempt depends on if those 17 games with the Wolves under an ATO count. If they count, he has to be protected. If not, free pass.

Wade Megan is not exempt. He's been in the AHL since 2012. AHL is a professional league and all years in that league count. Only thing protecting him is 2017-18 RFA status, because he won't officially be "under contract" when the expansion draft happens unless he is re-signed before then. Have no idea what happens if Vegas offer sheets him. AFAIK, eligible players have to be on the NHL roster to be protected. Megan is not on the NHL roster. This is where everything gets murky.