The Official Prospects Thread

[theohall]

Evan Fitzpatrick and the Acadie-Bathurst Titan won the 100th Memorial Cup (CHL Championship) with a 3-0 shutout in the Final against Regina. First game vs Regina in the round-robin he gave up 4 goals in the 3rd period... so this was a good rebound game against the same team.

Fitpatrick's coach - acquiring Fitzpatrick was the difference for Acadie-Bathurst this season. The quote was something like his group is fun to coach, but Fitzpatrick's play in net made the team easy to coach. Good things after he struggled so much with Sherbrooke.

[WaukeeBlues]

Since they're back in the 1st round now and I'm guessing that'll be a bottom 5 pick, I started looking at some of the players projected to go down that far. A couple jumped out to me... Serron Noel (RW) and Mattias Samuelsson (LHD) seem to be solid prospects that far down.

In general I've been hearing ad nauseum that this is a pretty deep draft so assuming we hold on to that pick we should be able to get a decent-odds-to-pro prospect.

The trade talk is making me nervous. In a bad way. The rumblings I'm getting from NHL network radio and Twitter et al is that Armstrong is looking to package the Jets first rounder we got with a prospect to do... something.

Granted it's speculation and only rumor and we have no idea what the return will be but we FINALLY get some legitimate looking forward prospects and we're going to trade them away?

That and it's contradictory to Armstrong holding on to both Kyrou and Thomas at the deadline when those were the two guys teams were specifically asking about the most. So why hold on to them just to trade them 4 months later?

This team is finally heading in the direction of a youth movement and we're gonna go f**k it up... again... like usual...

[gaijin]

Since they're back in the 1st round now and I'm guessing that'll be a bottom 5 pick, I started looking at some of the players projected to go down that far. A couple jumped out to me... Serron Noel (RW) and Mattias Samuelsson (LHD) seem to be solid prospects that far down.

In general I've been hearing ad nauseum that this is a pretty deep draft so assuming we hold on to that pick we should be able to get a decent-odds-to-pro prospect.

The trade talk is making me nervous. In a bad way. The rumblings I'm getting from NHL network radio and Twitter et al is that Armstrong is looking to package the Jets first rounder we got with a prospect to do... something.

Granted it's speculation and only rumor and we have no idea what the return will be but we FINALLY get some legitimate looking forward prospects and we're going to trade them away?

That and it's contradictory to Armstrong holding on to both Kyrou and Thomas at the deadline when those were the two guys teams were specifically asking about the most. So why hold on to them just to trade them 4 months later?

This team is finally heading in the direction of a youth movement and we're gonna go f**k it up... again... like usual...

The only thing I would say about a youth movement is that they rarely work out as planned. There are always prospects that don't pan out at the NHL level, even those deemed "NHL ready." Sure, some (most?) do, but to have all your team's prospects jump in and succeed would be exceedingly rare.

I mean, look at Edmonton. They of all teams should be the case study for this. If all their prospects had panned out as projected, they should have 3-4 more Cups by now. But it just doesn't happen that way very often (unless you are lucky enough to get a generational talent like a Crosby or McDavid).

Now don't get me wrong- I'm not saying I disagree with your take. I'm just thinking more of expectation management. I remember when we were all excited about Oshie, Perron and Berglund being our "young talent" and how they were going to anchor our team for years. I can't help but look at the situation through that lens and hope we're not expecting too much from the Kyrous and Thomases we have coming up.

[glen a richter]

I guess it largely depends on the player coming back. Now if Army was dealing with a team like the Islanders, for example, and trying to build a strong core to demonstrate to Tavares why he should stay with the team then they would take the pick and a youngster and not send a guy like Matthew Barzal back. The return from the Islanders would be weak. I don't want a pick and a prospect being traded for anyone north of 24 years old.

If the trade was to move up in the draft, I could get on board with that I suppose, depending on how far up they move. A team like the Rangers with three first round picks might be a willing trade partner.

[WaukeeBlues]

I guess it largely depends on the player coming back. Now if Army was dealing with a team like the Islanders, for example, and trying to build a strong core to demonstrate to Tavares why he should stay with the team then they would take the pick and a youngster and not send a guy like Matthew Barzal back. The return from the Islanders would be weak. I don't want a pick and a prospect being traded for anyone north of 24 years old.

If the trade was to move up in the draft, I could get on board with that I suppose, depending on how far up they move. A team like the Rangers with three first round picks might be a willing trade partner.

And I guess this is getting too far ahead (for when there's a thread devoted to the draft itself) but the "experts" say that there are a minimum three "tiers" in this year's first round, especially top 15 or so:

1) Dahlin is in a category by himself. Virtually all agree on this.
2) Svechnikov/Zadina, Tkachuk, Hughes, Bouchard/Wahlstrom/Boquist
3) Everyone else

Some experts put Svechnikov and Zadina by themselves with the third tier being Tkachuk and a small handful of others, THEN everyone else in a 4th tier, but the point is essentially the same: After about roughly the 7th overall selection it goes downhill pretty quickly.

So I guess in my mind the "top" spots are ROUGHLY 1-7. Everything after that you start playing the odds and risks game. Thomas and Kyrou are more known commodities now than they were on draft day obviously. Why forfeit them plus our 29th pick to move up 10 spots for...? I don't know. Doesn't make sense to ME but that's also why NHL teams aren't paying me to know these things.

[theohall]

After those top 7 - the draft is considered to have mostly solid defenseman available.

If the Blues do move up, I doubt they would be giving up Thomas or Kyrou. A more likely prospect to be traded is Binnington - RFA with no real shot within the Blues organization. Plenty of teams need goaltending. A few big names are nearing retirement (Luongo, Cam Ward) and haven't done well in the FA market trying to bring in replacements or develop their own. Getting a chance to backup Reimer would be a great fit for Binnington. Not sure a 29th and a backup goalie prospect would move up to 15, though. I don't see the Blues getting in the top 7, unless they give up one of the more NHL ready prospects - like Kaspick, Thomas or Kyrou. I could see trading Kaspick, though. He will have the toughest road in terms of making the Blues roster. He's already signed a contract with the Blues. There is also the potential of moving Jordan Schmaltz who still hasn't shown the chops of being NHL ready - at least in his brief stints with the Blues.

My take is the Blues are looking for right-handed D (yes, even with trading Schmaltz), because that's one severe weak spot in terms of depth. This is tempered, because there is only one right D spot after Parayko and Pietrangelo - which can be filled by someone like Bortuzzo or another inexpensive salaried veteran or both. Ther is still the always missing a super star center thing, in which the Blues are not alone.

On a side note, some might not like Klim Kostin's AHL numbers (67 GP 6G 22A). Consider this. He was an 18 year old playing in the AHL (thanks to being European) against a league in which most team's youngest player is 21 and and the average age of AHL teams is far greater than that. He and Robert Thomas are the same age. While Thomas was playing against kids roughly the same age and being great, Kostin put up 28 points as a vastly under-aged AHL rookie learning the North American game. It's the opposite of the Glen Gawdin situation. What's more telling for him are his numbers in the U20 WJC and the U20 World Championships this year. Playing against similar aged players 12 GP, 10 G, 6A. Better than a point per game player. Don't be surprised if Kostin spends at least another year in the AHL just growing up and learning. Also, the Blues liken him somewhat to Tarasenko with a more rounded game, yet Tank didn't play his first game with the Blues until he was 21.

(yeah, my opinion has changed on Kostin)

Having all the top non junior prospects in San Antonio next season, the Blues should have more say, assuming the Blues are putting the finances into San Antonio to help them, to ensure the prospects playing for the Rampage are getting the proper ice time. This was a huge part of the problem with prospects playing for the Wolves.

Blues ECHL affiliate is the Tulsa Oilers, in case anyone was wondering. Dmitri Sergeev, 21 year old LD, is on that roster for now.

[glen a richter]

Having total control over the AHL affiliate will be huge, for sure. I wouldn't be against all the kids getting a full season (or in Kostin's case, another full season) at the AHL to gel together.

This also gives Yeo another year of a relatively inadequate roster to screw up, miss the playoffs again and get fired. Then the season after next, all those kids who gelled together in San Antonio can come up to the NHL with a competent coach who won't misuse the bejesus out of them.

On the topic of trades, Binnington is expendable for sure, with Husso likely to backup Allen and Fitzpatrick, Opilka and whatever minor league FA the team picks up taking on goaltending duties in San Antonio. Binnington + Schmaltz + the 1st round pick to the Rangers for pick #9. Hank ain't playing forever, they have to consider goal eventually. I know they have a competent backup but it wouldn't hurt to have a guy like Binnington available, I think he'll be basically what I thought Bishop was--a good goalie, definitely NHL caliber, who for one reason or another doesn't get a break with the Blues but will absolutely make it elsewhere. It's also easier to use #9 to move into the top 7 than it is to use the #29 to move up.

[theohall]

Binnington + Schmaltz + the 1st round pick to the Rangers for pick #9. Hank ain't playing forever, they have to consider goal eventually. I know they have a competent backup but it wouldn't hurt to have a guy like Binnington available, I think he'll be basically what I thought Bishop was--a good goalie, definitely NHL caliber, who for one reason or another doesn't get a break with the Blues but will absolutely make it elsewhere. It's also easier to use #9 to move into the top 7 than it is to use the #29 to move up.

Given what the Rangers did at the trade deadline, they aren't trading away their top 10 pick for a lesser one and prospects, who aren't getting it done now, when they are clearly in rebuilding mode.

3 first round picks, 3 2nd round picks and 2 3rds is lots to rebuild with (not to mention the last 4 normal picks) or acquire NHL ready now players, vice guys like Binnington and Schmaltz. I could see the Rangers trading their last 2 1st round picks to move up for someone they really want, but no way do they trade the #9.

Put it this way - all 4 scouting sources at EliteProspects (not counting the Europe and North American Only ones) have Acadie-Bathurst's defenseman Noah Dobson going #9 or #10. He is a "need" type defenseman for the Rangers.

[WaukeeBlues]

Binnington + Schmaltz + the 1st round pick to the Rangers for pick #9. Hank ain't playing forever, they have to consider goal eventually. I know they have a competent backup but it wouldn't hurt to have a guy like Binnington available, I think he'll be basically what I thought Bishop was--a good goalie, definitely NHL caliber, who for one reason or another doesn't get a break with the Blues but will absolutely make it elsewhere. It's also easier to use #9 to move into the top 7 than it is to use the #29 to move up.

Given what the Rangers did at the trade deadline, they aren't trading away their top 10 pick for a lesser one and prospects, who aren't getting it done now, when they are clearly in rebuilding mode.

3 first round picks, 3 2nd round picks and 2 3rds is lots to rebuild with (not to mention the last 4 normal picks) or acquire NHL ready now players, vice guys like Binnington and Schmaltz. I could see the Rangers trading their last 2 1st round picks to move up for someone they really want, but no way do they trade the #9.

Put it this way - all 4 scouting sources at EliteProspects (not counting the Europe and North American Only ones) have Acadie-Bathurst's defenseman Noah Dobson going #9 or #10. He is a "need" type defenseman for the Rangers.

I think the days of trades in the top 10 in the draft are LONG gone.

In the salary cap era those top picks are simply too valuable to trade. For almost any price unless it's something that blows you away. Last year with the Coyotes dealing the 7th overall pick was a shock to me but they also got (what they considered to be) a #1/#2 Center and an assumed Starting Goaltender. That's the price for 7th overall. For a team that really needed it.

I don't think anyone in the top 7 trades anything and I agree I seriously doubt the Rangers are trading down for anything unless the return is ridiculous.

I'm not worried about Klim Kostin. As you said, he was an underager for the draft, had injury concerns. It was a high risk high reward pick. He's still incredibly young and like you said this was his first season playing with men much older than himself. I'm not worried yet. And even if he flops, meh, it was a shot in the dark for a high risk player. We knew this going in.

[theohall]

While Robert Thomas was very limited in the Memorial Cup - largely due to opposing teams putting their best defenseman against him as often as possible, here is a reason we should be excited about him as a future center for the Blues.

Robert Thomas.PNG (25.77 KiB) Viewed 102056 times

This data is from ~10 games of his performance compared to 17 other CHL teams following the CHL trading deadline this past season. It shows where he ranked compared to the players on those 17 teams. It's from an Athletic article by Mitch Brown.

This is the link if anyone wants to compare against specific players if they were included in the data set. Unfortunately, Kyrou and Kaspick aren't on the 17 teams recorded.

Basically, Thomas is one of the top setup guys (both in passing, exiting the d-zone more without the puck than with, and entering the o-zone with and without the puck) in the CHL while also being an outstanding 2-way center. He's the guy we want with Tarasenko.

The Controlled Entry/Exit thing, Primary Shot Assist, and Scoring Chance Assist are some advanced statistics which are rapidly gaining traction.

[glen a richter]

I'd be more excited if Yeo wasn't the coach who was a few months away from spoiling Thomas (and Kyrou, and whichever else rookie might make the team out of camp).

I'm curious what the plan moving forward for both Nolan Stevens and Austin Poganski who both signed ELC's at the end of the season as well. I'm guessing both get at least a full season in San Antonio, though Poganski really doesn't project as better than a bottom 6 and might just be a career farmhand/injury call up.

[theohall]

Looking at stuff on Cap Friendly...

G Evan Fitzpatrick could spend another year in juniors. He doesn't turn 21 until January which means he's eligible to say on his junior team. The only reason I could see keeping him there is if the Blues go with Allen and some unsigned vet backup goalie for the NHL team, Husso is the clear #1 at San Antonio with a yet to be named backup (possibly Binnington) considering Opilka hasn't played in over a year. We shall see. In terms of developing players - it puts Husso and Fitzpatrick in clear #1 roles and Allen won't have a quality backup to rely upon if he stumbles. My guess - the stumble happens again when the Blues offense and power play continue to suck and he over-plays things trying to be perfect again, which never works. Then we shall see what Armstrong does in scramble mode when that happens.

[WaukeeBlues]

This year's draft was screwy all the way around. The first two picks were the only two that went "according to plan" really.

Detroit had 2 guys fall into their laps that should've gone way higher. Of course.

No idea what the Rangers were doing at 9, must really like that kid.

As the Canadiens and Coyotes show, there continues to be a huge premium on centers in this league and if you feel you can get a good one, regardless where in the draft lineup you are, you better go get him.

Islanders made out like bandits at 11 and 12 with Wahlstrom and Dobson. Are you kidding me?

[glen a richter]

The Islanders owned that draft... them and Detroit.

As for the Blues, weak as hell draft that didn't do much to fortify the system.

[theohall]

No idea what the Rangers were doing at 9, must really like that kid.

During the draft Sam Cosentino immediately said don't be surprised if the Rangers draft a Russian with this 9 pick when the Rangers went on the clock. All of the other guys were hemming and hawing Dobson and Wahlstrom as heading to the Rangers. Cosentino, whose specialty is covering the CHL, pointed out none of the Rangers top scouts were around in the CHL playoffs. His digging led to him finding out they were in Russia. And... unsurprisingly, with that info, the Rangers drafted a Russian.

The Rangers draft isn't about this coming season. They are doing the long rebuild, not the immediate gratification type build, which makes me feel bad for Lundqvist who has chosen to stay, even though it likely means him not getting a shot at a Cup with the Rangers. Any takers on Lundqvist being traded this season at some point? He might re-think his decision, with the Rangers not likely being seriously competitive again until 2020.

Still - passing up Dobson was a shocker.

Filip Zadina falling to 6 was really surprising. Ottawa taking the grit and skill guy (Tkachuk) over who is likely the more skilled guy.... head scratcher.

[WaukeeBlues]

No idea what the Rangers were doing at 9, must really like that kid.

During the draft Sam Cosentino immediately said don't be surprised if the Rangers draft a Russian with this 9 pick when the Rangers went on the clock. All of the other guys were hemming and hawing Dobson and Wahlstrom as heading to the Rangers. Cosentino, whose specialty is covering the CHL, pointed out none of the Rangers top scouts were around in the CHL playoffs. His digging led to him finding out they were in Russia. And... unsurprisingly, with that info, the Rangers drafted a Russian.

The Rangers draft isn't about this coming season. They are doing the long rebuild, not the immediate gratification type build, which makes me feel bad for Lundqvist who has chosen to stay, even though it likely means him not getting a shot at a Cup with the Rangers. Any takers on Lundqvist being traded this season at some point? He might re-think his decision, with the Rangers not likely being seriously competitive again until 2020.

Still - passing up Dobson was a shocker.

Filip Zadina falling to 6 was really surprising. Ottawa taking the grit and skill guy (Tkachuk) over who is likely the more skilled guy.... head scratcher.

For the Rangers, I get they weren't drafting for the now but depending on what source you were looking at, some guys had him as low as 23. You can't miss on a top 10 pick and it seemed unnecessarily risky to me. But that's me.

The Bokk kid looks alright, looks like he'll continue playing in the SEL and we'll get a much better idea. Not really sure how high of expectations you can have at 25th overall. The clips of him that played on the draft were pretty silky. As always, we'll see but the raw talent looks to be there in spades.

Perunovich I'm actually excited about. He made second team all Rookie in NCAA hockey, named the league's best offensive defenseman and won a national title. He's been a slow and steady prospect and he'll need more time but I don't mind him. Yea, even at 5'9

[glen a richter]

I'm hearing good things about Foley, good power forward making positive steps forward during the camp.

[WaukeeBlues]

On a slightly unrelated note: If you go back and look at the Blues drafts the last 8 years since 2010, we've gotten a full time NHL player in every single draft. The only exception is 2013.

That's not bad

I also give Armstrong full credit for making big moves to help the team now (Schenn and O'Reilly) whilst still working his ways to keep first round picks being selected (Namely, dealing Shattenkirk and Stastny when they were going to walk). That's professional GM'ing right there. It pained me this year to lose 14th overall but that's the price at center. Moving up to get a player at 25 was solid. I also can't express enough how amazing that will be if Kostin turns into a legitimate NHL player and we got him for Ryan Reaves.

I guess what I'm saying is I'm impressed with Armstrong's ability to balance the acquisition of future assets in the form of first round picks and prospects by dealing guys at the end of their Blues tenure at the deadline but also swinging deals for the "now." Next year may be the end of the road for the string of staying in the first round but at this point, the window is open, it's WIN NOW.

[gaijin]

On a slightly unrelated note: If you go back and look at the Blues drafts the last 8 years since 2010, we've gotten a full time NHL player in every single draft. The only exception is 2013.

That's not bad

I also give Armstrong full credit for making big moves to help the team now (Schenn and O'Reilly) whilst still working his ways to keep first round picks being selected (Namely, dealing Shattenkirk and Stastny when they were going to walk). That's professional GM'ing right there. It pained me this year to lose 14th overall but that's the price at center. Moving up to get a player at 25 was solid. I also can't express enough how amazing that will be if Kostin turns into a legitimate NHL player and we got him for Ryan Reaves.

I guess what I'm saying is I'm impressed with Armstrong's ability to balance the acquisition of future assets in the form of first round picks and prospects by dealing guys at the end of their Blues tenure at the deadline but also swinging deals for the "now." Next year may be the end of the road for the string of staying in the first round but at this point, the window is open, it's WIN NOW.

With the acquisition of ROR and Bozak, I'm also feeling the NOW window just opened. How long that window remains open is anyone's guess- we won't be able to afford Petro and Parayko together forever.

And Allen is still a wild card in my opinion. If we wait for Husso or someone else, our other big names may be up for free agency.

[glen a richter]

This team is swimming in quality prospects and the current roster is riddled with under-30's who should be good to go for a while. The missing link is the proper coach for them, which is why they won't win the Cup this season or next season or the season after... if Yeo remains. The Cup runs through the east now, the balance of power has shifted and if this team, as is, went up against Toronto or Washington in a 7 game set, they'd never see as far as game 6. We need a new coach to get the most out of the players in the system. Hopefully the kids can develop at San Antonio in a way they couldn't have last season. I want to see a full AHL season out of many of the guys, and I know that Thomas is pegged for the NHL but I'd like to see him spend an entire campaign in the AHL as well. Part of that is to keep him away from Yeo, but part is also to let him gel with the other kids. Thomas, Kostin, Kyrou, Stevens, Poganski, Blais, Toropchenko, Kaspick, Foley, Walman and Mikkola--that's a deep group that will benefit a ton by getting exclusive ice team on a team that's not a shared affiliate. The future looks damn good if the coach changes.