Official Best Offseason Ever Thread

[StL Dan]

Agreed. What a deal.

4.25M left for Barbie and Eddy, theoretically.

[theohall]

Great deal for both sides. Sundqvist winds up UFA at the end of it.

It's more like 5.7 for those last two. Pouliot and Schmaltz count right now, but likely won't when season starts.

I can still see Armstrong trying to move Eddy and having the combination of Mikkola, Pouliot, and Walman fight it out in camp to replace him.

[theohall]

Just to expand on the potentially moving Edmundson thing:

Blues top 4 defenseman: Pietrangelo, Parayko, Dunn, Bouwmeester. Those 4 are playing. I get the Blues have protected Dunn by playing him down the lineup, but it's time for him to be a regular top 4 guy.

Blues already have Bortuzzo (RD, Gunnarson (LD), and Pouliot (LD) signed. I know Pouliot is intended to be AHL depth, but we are talking about filling a bottom pairing D position which is going to rotate with Gunnarson, anyway, or fill in when someone in the top 6 is injured. Why not have Mikkola, Pouliot, Walman, or some other name we don't expect, fight it out for Edmundson's position? When you have your top 4 defenseman, plus two of your bottom 6 already signed, this is an area in the cap era where teams look to save cap space - not pay 4+ AAV for a rotating 5th/6th defenseman and that's what Eddy's going to get if it gets to the arbitration hearing.

[glen a richter]

Shoot, I'd almost completely forgotten about Walman.

If Eddy doesn't return + Maroon doesn't return, that frees up a bit of money. Sit on it or use it?

[JCShutout]

Sunny deal is a little more than what I hoped ($2.5m/per) for, but less than what I expected. ($3m/per). I'll take it. Dude is clearly an important part of our defensive game.

I'll bet Barbashev gets about $2m-$2.25m as this should set the market for him.

Shoot, I'd almost completely forgotten about Walman.

If Eddy doesn't return + Maroon doesn't return, that frees up a bit of money. Sit on it or use it?

Use it if you can get a one year deal, (or the ability to take on a big, last year of a deal contract at the deadline. Otherwise save it for the Captain, Dunn and Schenn next year. No depth player is more important than those 3.

[theohall]

Armstrong did say in an interview with JR on The Athletic while the Blues owners are fine with spending to the cap, he would like to have about 2M in space when the season beings to make it easier to move players during the season - which was a challenge for them last season. This is another reason I could easily see them moving Edmundson if Barbashev gets 2-2.5.

A key difference between Barbashev and Sundqvist - this is Sundqvist's 4th contract already. It's not like he's coming off of his ELC. Well, this is Barbashev's first non-ELC contract, so he doesn't have arbitration rights. This usually means less money with weaker negotiating rights. I'd expect this to be ~1.5M AAV, with the issue being term. Does Barbashev want to bet on himself with shorter term and try and make more while still an RFA, or is he willing to go 4 years which would make him a UFA at age 27 due to having 7 years played? He's going to hit the 7 years played with the Blues lack of high quality center prospects.

A side note on Sundqvist - he's one of those guys who took 1 year RFA deals in the past two seasons. I'd say it worked out for him not being locked in to a lower salary for a longer term.

[WaukeeBlues]

Not that it'd be ideal but if the arbitrator awards a one year deal (which I believe what the Blues are asking) and if the salary is $3.5 or more, the Blues can walk from it and Edmundson would immediately become a UFA.

Again, not ideal, as I'd far rather trade him for ANYthing than just say "no that's too much" and walk from it but at least there's an "out" if it actually gets to that point for the Blues, instead of getting stuck over the cap.

[JCShutout]

If the Blues can get Barbashev for around Sanford money, then they are in a good position. They could keep Eddy at $3.5 or so, and only trade him if needed. They could also keep him, and have him replace JayBo in the top 4 next year, giving a rotation between Dunn and Eddy for that 1/2 LD this year.

I know they would like $2m is in cap space, but keeping and eventually trading Edmundson at least gets you something, and probably something pretty good.

[StL Dan]

If the Blues offer Eddy and Barbie contracts, will they be for one year, or more?

[theohall]

The following rule will likely come into effect if Edmundson's salary is decided by arbitration, because the salary will almost certainly be 3.5M AAV or higher:

In most cases, the arbitrator's decision is binding. However, if a player elected the arbitration and the arbitrator's decision is for a one-year deal with a salary in excess of $3.5 million, the team is allowed to reject the decision and the player becomes an unrestricted free agent. If the decision was for a two-year deal in excess of $3.5 million, the team can opt for only a one-year deal with the given salary, and the player will become an unrestricted free agent the following year. If the team elected arbitration, they must accept the ruling as is.

If it were between Barbashev and Edmundson - Eddy goes. The Blues simply don't have depth at C in terms of prospects if something were to happen to even 2 of the top 4 centers. Replacing a bottom third defenseman isn't that difficult and the Blues to have D prospects who should be capable of handling that role. Pouliot might even be a better option. No, he isn't the big, physical defenseman, but he's a reasonable puck-moving D who would pair well with Bortuzzo.

[JCShutout]

If it were between Barbashev and Edmundson - Eddy goes. The Blues simply don't have depth at C in terms of prospects if something were to happen to even 2 of the top 4 centers. Replacing a bottom third defenseman isn't that difficult and the Blues to have D prospects who should be capable of handling that role. Pouliot might even be a better option. No, he isn't the big, physical defenseman, but he's a reasonable puck-moving D who would pair well with Bortuzzo.

Completely agree, though the question is, is he a top4 dman? If so, and he's at $3.5m or less, then he's useful next year after JayBo retires and possibly this year as Bouw and/or Dunn might struggle.

I think it really just comes down to numbers. If the team sees him as a top4 guy, and he's around $3m-$3.5m, he's worth a 1-2 year deal. If he gets more than that, then thank you and best of luck.

[glen a richter]

Barbashev for sure has to stay and if that means getting rid of Eddy then big deal. I've said a bunch of times in the past that the difference between the Blues and teams that were in actual contention for the Cup was a strong 4th line that could log double digit minutes per game and contribute a bit offensively. Well they went ahead and put together a 4th line that didn't suck to high heaven and lo and behold what happens? They win the Cup! Barbashev/Sundqvist/Steen was as important, if not more important to the overall playoff run as any one individual on the team. We saw how much different and how sucky they played in the two games where each of Sundqvist and Barbashev were suspended. Keep that 4th line together until Steen's contract runs out and then slide someone else into that spot from within the system.

In the playoffs, Barbashev averaged 12:28 a night, Sundqvist 16:08 and Steen 13:22, a far cry from the days where our 4th line would be good for 6, maybe 7 minutes a night. It makes a difference in energy level and also keeping everyone else just a little fresher when they need to be.

[theohall]

Exactly! And if someone told me before last season that 4th line would work that well, I wouldn't have believed them.

One big thing that changed once Yeo was fired, Berube and his staff did a great job of mixing older veterans and younger players on almost every line, which wasn't really happening under Yeo. I swear the staff started copying the things the Lightning were doing so well, in terms of how to manage lines, vice just keeping all of your veterans together, while over playing them, and making younger players figure it out with limited ice time. Trying to balance ice time for all lines... Tampa was doing that from opening puck drop, which led to analysts questioning if Stamkos had lost a step. No, it was reduced ice time.

Berube started playing bottom six guys against top lines in March to see if they could handle it. That change proved to be a key to winning the Cup, because he found out the Blues could play any forward line against any other forward line, as long as he had the defensive pairing he wanted against the opposing top lines. IMO, this is why Tampa lost in the playoffs. They don't have the defense to match up this way.

I'm real interested to see if Kyrou moves up this season and gets a real opportunity to play vice the less than 8 minutes per night he got last season.

[WaukeeBlues]

Barbashev for sure has to stay and if that means getting rid of Eddy then big deal. I've said a bunch of times in the past that the difference between the Blues and teams that were in actual contention for the Cup was a strong 4th line that could log double digit minutes per game and contribute a bit offensively. Well they went ahead and put together a 4th line that didn't suck to high heaven and lo and behold what happens? They win the Cup! Barbashev/Sundqvist/Steen was as important, if not more important to the overall playoff run as any one individual on the team. We saw how much different and how sucky they played in the two games where each of Sundqvist and Barbashev were suspended. Keep that 4th line together until Steen's contract runs out and then slide someone else into that spot from within the system.

In the playoffs, Barbashev averaged 12:28 a night, Sundqvist 16:08 and Steen 13:22, a far cry from the days where our 4th line would be good for 6, maybe 7 minutes a night. It makes a difference in energy level and also keeping everyone else just a little fresher when they need to be.

I think Steen is gone after this season. Looking at the cap situation, we got Schenn, Dunn and Pietrangelo coming due and the only notable K coming off the books is Bouwmeester. The money has to come from somewhere. Steen may get bought out. Or maybe Allen gets moved if Binner shows he can do it over a whole year.

capfriendly calculator says if the Blues bought Steen out after this upcoming season (June, 2020), we'd have a $3.14 cap hit in '20-'21 and $1.16 cap hit in '21-'22. Current cap hit is $5.750 so we'd free up $2.61 million in cap space for '20-'21 right there by itself if he won't waive his NTC.

I'm very worried Pietrangelo (and Schenn for that matter) demand the full 8 year deals. Pietrangelo will be 30 and a half, Schenn will be nearly 29 next summer. I hope sanity prevails and either or both of them take 4-5 year deals instead but I guess we'll see. A 3 year deal for each of them would be perfect but there's no way they go for that unless the AAV is just insane.

[theohall]

I can see giving a defenseman a contract to age 36, especially good ones. It's the ones that have them playing from 37 and beyond for ridiculous salary that are a problem. Fortunately, Armstrong doesn't seem to be the kind of GM who will even consider the bonehead contracts Bowman gave Seabrook and Keith. Look at what Armstrong did with Bouwmeester when he was 29. 5 years and what looked like reasonable AAV at the time, but injuries took their toll until he finally started playing reasonably well the 2nd half of this past season. Won't be surprised to see Pietrangelo signing for 5. There is something to be said for "staying in St Louis" apparently when it comes to hockey players.

Forwards on the other hand, anything past age 34 and you're asking for trouble. While some are panning what San Jose did with Pavelski, it isn't new for them. They did the same thing with Marleau when he was the same age. No, they aren't giving out 3 year contracts to 35 year old forwards no matter how good they played when they were 34. I think Armstrong works off the same mindset in regards to forwards. So Schenn for 5-6 putting him at 34-35 when it expires. One way to manage things in terms of salary try go get the last two years to be lower in salary than the prior one, so if something is going wrong, it's easier to move him. Some keep saying Schenn will need to be moved to give Thomas that Center slot. Well, Bozak is only signed for 2 more years, and I don't see him being a #3 center at 35 being paid 5M per year. With the Blues finally rolling 4 lines, it'd be more like 2A/2B with the Sundqvist/Barbashev line being the "3rd/4th" line. So Schenn doesn't have to go, unless one is solely looking at cap savings. IMO, move Bozak and use that 5M to give Pietrangelo and Schenn raises.

The big problem - these guys won the Stanley Cup and it's going to increase their value significantly. I won't be surprised if both wait until the free agent talking period begins (the week before July 1st - yes, they changed the rules I don't know when to allow guys to talk prior to the 1st, but only for a week long window) to determine their market value. Of course, Armstrong has been really good about a) moving someone he doesn't expect to sign or b) getting guys signed before that free agent talking time begins.

[theohall]

Interesting that Copp actually went all the way through the arbitration hearing. The award is right in line with Sundqvist's contract. Slightly less production. Slightly less AAV. I do believe Sundqvist is a better overall contributor in things that don't show up on the stats sheet, but it seems Copp's contract result should have been worked out without going all the way through a hearing. Only thing I can figure is Copp wanted more term than the Jets wanted to commit.

[WaukeeBlues]

I can see giving a defenseman a contract to age 36, especially good ones. It's the ones that have them playing from 37 and beyond for ridiculous salary that are a problem. Fortunately, Armstrong doesn't seem to be the kind of GM who will even consider the bonehead contracts Bowman gave Seabrook and Keith. Look at what Armstrong did with Bouwmeester when he was 29. 5 years and what looked like reasonable AAV at the time, but injuries took their toll until he finally started playing reasonably well the 2nd half of this past season. Won't be surprised to see Pietrangelo signing for 5. There is something to be said for "staying in St Louis" apparently when it comes to hockey players.

Forwards on the other hand, anything past age 34 and you're asking for trouble. While some are panning what San Jose did with Pavelski, it isn't new for them. They did the same thing with Marleau when he was the same age. No, they aren't giving out 3 year contracts to 35 year old forwards no matter how good they played when they were 34. I think Armstrong works off the same mindset in regards to forwards. So Schenn for 5-6 putting him at 34-35 when it expires. One way to manage things in terms of salary try go get the last two years to be lower in salary than the prior one, so if something is going wrong, it's easier to move him. Some keep saying Schenn will need to be moved to give Thomas that Center slot. Well, Bozak is only signed for 2 more years, and I don't see him being a #3 center at 35 being paid 5M per year. With the Blues finally rolling 4 lines, it'd be more like 2A/2B with the Sundqvist/Barbashev line being the "3rd/4th" line. So Schenn doesn't have to go, unless one is solely looking at cap savings. IMO, move Bozak and use that 5M to give Pietrangelo and Schenn raises.

The big problem - these guys won the Stanley Cup and it's going to increase their value significantly. I won't be surprised if both wait until the free agent talking period begins (the week before July 1st - yes, they changed the rules I don't know when to allow guys to talk prior to the 1st, but only for a week long window) to determine their market value. Of course, Armstrong has been really good about a) moving someone he doesn't expect to sign or b) getting guys signed before that free agent talking time begins.

Army has also been really good about letting guys walk when they want too much term and money (Backes, Brouwer) and let them be someone else's problem.

An interesting dynamic with the cup win is that Armstrong doesn't have to feel "obligated" to re-sign Pietro and Schenn at ALL quite honestly. Had the Blues not won the Cup and we were still in the "window" of going for it I'm not sure how you don't re-sign these guys; the fan base would revolt. Now that being said, the fan base (myself included) would be pretty pissed if either or both of these guys just walked for nothing but HEY this group already won a cup. There isn't *quite that urgency to "have to keep the band together" if each of these guys is asking 8 years, $8 AAV and will not come down on the term.

The term is going to be the biggest problem. Every NHL'er knows this late 20's/30 year old contract is the "pay day" where you get as much money as you possibly can because it's the last best chance with the most UFA leverage.

[glen a richter]

The free pass period won't last forever. The fanbase would be more pissed if Pie and/or Schenn were allowed to walk and then won a Cup for Toronto or god forbid Nashville. Now I'd rather no one gets an 8 year contract too and Army will have some tough decisions to make soon, but I think he'll make the right calls and not overextend anyone for the sake of keeping the fans happy.

[theohall]

The only 8 year contract I'm aware of Armstrong offering anyone is Tarasenko. Even before the lockout, I don't believe he ever signed anyone to a ridiculous term deal. The most likely players I see actually getting 8 year offers from Armstrong would be Parayko, since he'll be 29 in his UFA season and potentially Thomas - the same way Armstrong locked up Tarasenko. His style of play is the kind that ages well, plus his reach will wind up making up for the inevitable loss of speed which happens around 35 for hockey players. There's a reason good, big defenseman (see Pronger and Chara) are able to play so long compared to the guys who are even slightly shorter.

But those are a ways down the road.

[theohall]

Blues add Marc Savard as assistant coach. Yes, he's going to run the power play. Yes, he's an offensive minded coach. Good. Not much experience from what I can find as an assistant coach, but it's the right kind of hire, IMO.

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