JR: Petro and Blues aren't close

[WaukeeBlues]

Pierre Lebrun on NHL Radio yesterday paraphrased: the majority of GMs who need to move players to create cap space are all extremely worried, because they aren't finding trade partners thanks to the flat cap. Also, the teams who have the space might not want to take on said salaries, because of the flat cap for the 21-22 season, as well.

Big problem for St Louis who needs to create space just to have a chance at signing Pietrangelo when essentially no one is willing to take on salaries. They were fortunate Montreal agreed to the Allen trade which many folks questioned Montreal's angle on it - other than short season/2 goalies - but that amount of money for 2 goalies??

It cannot be overstated how big of a trade that was to get a team to take 100% of Jake Allen's cap hit. That was YUGE. Huge props to Army getting that done and pulling the trigger.

If there are zero takers, the Blues could buy out Bozak. I know Armstrong is loathe to do that though and maybe never has before. But, that'd clear almost $3 million in cap space, leaving the blues with $8.686 in cap space for Petro and Dunn with 13 forwards and 2 G. If they move an ancillary piece like Bortuzzo or Gunner after that then they'd be done. Those smaller contracts are going to be easier to move anyway.

Ottawa is penny pinching like nobody's business. I'm sure they're waiting for the perfect "cash to AAV ratio" salary cap dump with a desperate team looking to overpay. As are probably the Red Wings and Devils. But these teams with cap space have internal budgets and especially with Ottawa I have no doubt they're just trying to get to the floor, which, after signing RFA's, might only mean they're like $6 millionish away.

This offseason is going to be crazy. The teams that have space don't want to use it and the teams without space HAVE to shed it. Something's gotta give. Heck, look at that Staal trade: it's widely reported part of why the Sabres did it was to save $1 million bucks on a roster spot. ONE million. This is going to be interesting.

World record number of buyouts for any offseason ever?

[theohall]

I don't see how Armstrong can create the space needed without someone being bought out. No matter Armstrong's record on never buying anyone out, circumstances are very likely going to force his hand - but another point of the LeBrun conversation was the Blues supposedly told Petro to look when FA opens, because the Blues can't even come close to an offer.

Yes, the Blues could go 10% over the cap and sign Petro to what he wants, but that puts every team in the NHL knowing the Blues have to shed salary before puck drop of the 20-21 season (or 21 season) and aren't going to help.

[gaijin]

Pierre Lebrun on NHL Radio yesterday paraphrased: the majority of GMs who need to move players to create cap space are all extremely worried, because they aren't finding trade partners thanks to the flat cap. Also, the teams who have the space might not want to take on said salaries, because of the flat cap for the 21-22 season, as well.

Big problem for St Louis who needs to create space just to have a chance at signing Pietrangelo when essentially no one is willing to take on salaries. They were fortunate Montreal agreed to the Allen trade which many folks questioned Montreal's angle on it - other than short season/2 goalies - but that amount of money for 2 goalies??

This might work out to be an advantage to the teams. If teams can't/don't want to take on inflated salaries (or sign free agents to overly large contracts) because they don't have room due to the flat cap, then as a free agent you may have to "settle" for a smaller contract. Maybe Petro ends up signing with the Blues for closer to what the Blues are offering. Some room would still have to be cleared, but less so than before.

[glen a richter]

If I were Petro I'd be all over what the Blues offered. Dude (plus the entire rest of the team) are permanently engraved as legends in St. Louis sports and that's worth more than any dollar amount when you're already being offered 8 million a year as it is. Then again, I'm not a pro athlete by any stretch and maybe I'd think different if I was.

I just honestly doubt he's paying for his own dinners every night since winning the Cup and he sure as hell wouldn't get that kind of treatment in a new city.

[WaukeeBlues]

If I were Petro I'd be all over what the Blues offered. Dude (plus the entire rest of the team) are permanently engraved as legends in St. Louis sports and that's worth more than any dollar amount when you're already being offered 8 million a year as it is. Then again, I'm not a pro athlete by any stretch and maybe I'd think different if I was.

I just honestly doubt he's paying for his own dinners every night since winning the Cup and he sure as hell wouldn't get that kind of treatment in a new city.

The Brayden Schenn extension is really enlightening as what Armstrong is willing to do vs. not.

Willing to Do

Front-load and no-trade protection: Schenn signed an 8 year, $52 million dollar contract extension, AAV is $6.5. Four of those years his salary is $8 million. If the AAV were $8, Armstrong could get Petro about $10.6 million a year (with Stillman's blessing, which I assume at this point) over the first four years for $42.4 million of the $64 million over that time, that's 66.25% of the contract value over 4 years. He'd be at about 75% of the contract value at the end of year 5 if the salary dropped to the minimum allowed $5.3 in that scenario.

Full NTC: Schenn got a full no trade for 5 years and a partial for the last 3. I would assume Army would be willing to do the same or maybe just because of who Petro is do a full NTC for the whole contract.

Not Willing to Do

Signing Bonus and NMC. One big motivation for NMC is to prevent embarrassment being sent to the minors. Do we really ever have to worry about that with Petro? Honestly?

The signing bonus isn't just a guaranteed payout it's more money in the event of a buyout.

The ultimate question for Petro is if the front loading and NTC protection is enough?

Hell, the Blues would never buy out a contract with 4 or 5 years left on it anyway. Front load the hell out of this thing, he knows he's locked in for at least (probably) 4 years of this deal where he'll get 66.25% of his money by then... I don't know. Maybe I just don't think is as big a deal as it actually is to get that bonus money. But I know Petro's agent seems to think so and I wonder how much influence they're pushing on Petro to get those things regardless of what Petro wants.

[WaukeeBlues]

Speaking of Schenn, it's worth noting he dumped Newport and switched agencies in the summer prior to signing his 8 year extension with the Blues.

I wonder if he and Petro have talked.

Or if Petro has called Backes. And what Backes would say now looking back? Maybe it's not a fair comparison because with the way Backes plays the game he wanted the most money and most term he could get which, especially for someone in his position, makes more sense than it does for Petro.

[goon attack]

I just honestly doubt he's paying for his own dinners every night since winning the Cup and he sure as hell wouldn't get that kind of treatment in a new city.

I don't know about you but I wouldn't want a free meal everywhere I went. It's emasculating.

[theohall]

More NHL Radio Talk

Blues have offered somewhere between 8.6 and 8.8/yr for 8 years (my comment - means someone has to go or 91 is LTIR)
Meehan (I think), Pietrangelo's agent, wants 9.3/yr for 8 years

The radio guys believe Armstrong has encouraged Pietrangelo to keep the Blues in mind IF he tests the market - which is likely. (my comment: He's not going to find playoff caliber suitors other than Colorado for 9.3/yr - unless the other playoff level teams are able to dump cap space somewhere. This is probably one of the worst possible years to be the top FA defenseman on the market considering the cap won't go up next year either).

Aside - Brisebois, Tampa's GM, is already on record as saying his Stanley Cup winning team will look different next season. They only have 5M+ (under 6M) in cap space with only 3 defenseman currently signed and Cirelli and Sergacheev deserving reasonable contracts as RFAs. That will be interesting to watch to see who goes where.

[JCShutout]

If the Blues are really offering $8.7 ish over 8, then that’s a pretty reasonable offer. I know its not just that, but when the money gets paid and movement clauses and free toothbrushes and the like, but the term and aav, considering the flat cap, is pretty darn reasonable.

And yeah, 91 LTIR and then nail-biting next year with Schwartz.

[theohall]

The other factor which is getting lots of airplay - how much can the owners of the various teams actually afford to spend, regardless of cap space, with the massive hit to hockey related revenues in all it's various forms. The Blues are one of the teams that needs the playoff revenue to stay in the black - still - as they have been for almost forever.

[WaukeeBlues]

More NHL Radio Talk

Blues have offered somewhere between 8.6 and 8.8/yr for 8 years (my comment - means someone has to go or 91 is LTIR)
Meehan (I think), Pietrangelo's agent, wants 9.3/yr for 8 years.

That's very reasonable. That's as high as I've ever heard the Blues go. That's encouraging.

... (my comment: He's not going to find playoff caliber suitors other than Colorado for 9.3/yr - unless the other playoff level teams are able to dump cap space somewhere. This is probably one of the worst possible years to be the top FA defenseman on the market considering the cap won't go up next year either).

Colorado is interesting. They have our buddy Erik Johnson and Cale Makar on the right hand side. That seems to me if they intended to keep EJ (I think they would: modest cap hit for a solid stay at home Dman) that Torrey Krug on the left side makes way more sense for them than Petro. But, hard to say. They certainly have the cap space. Word on the street though is that Colorado looking to upgrade at goaltender so they may get one of these big name FA goaltenders. They could do a goalie and one more big contract after that but that's about it. Plus they got Cale coming due next offseason so that's looming on the horizon for them.

The other factor which is getting lots of airplay - how much can the owners of the various teams actually afford to spend, regardless of cap space, with the massive hit to hockey related revenues in all it's various forms. The Blues are one of the teams that needs the playoff revenue to stay in the black - still - as they have been for almost forever.

That is very true. If Petro wants that huge signing bonus $$ right out of the gate, whoever signs him is going to have to go to the owner and ask him to cut a check for $9-$12 million+ dollars cashed immediately. For some owners that may have the cap space that's a gut punch. I don't think it's THAT big of a deal, and more owners than not would be willing to do it but it's a reality. It's a factor.

[WaukeeBlues]

If the Blues are really offering $8.7 ish over 8, then that’s a pretty reasonable offer. I know its not just that, but when the money gets paid and movement clauses and free toothbrushes and the like, but the term and aav, considering the flat cap, is pretty darn reasonable.

And yeah, 91 LTIR and then nail-biting next year with Schwartz.

And don't forget, Army may not do signing bonuses but he has no qualms about front loading the s*** out of contracts, so Petro can still get a boatload of money really quickly without leaving town.