Remaining Blues RFAs

[theohall]

So the Blues have 8.5M in cap space left.

4 RFAs to to sign.

Barbashev (arb eligible) - last contract 1.475 AAV 2 years.
Sanford (arb eligible) - last contract 1.5 AAV 2 years
Kyrou .758 AAV (entry level contract)
Thomas 1.177 AAV (entry level contract)

Even without raises, that's almost 5M already. Does anyone honestly believe the Blues could sign all 4 for under 8? I don't. Would be surprised if that happens. I expect Sanford to be the one squeezed out/traded/something. Of all the Blues "roster" forwards, he brings the least value.

I don't know a good comparable for Barbashev with him being a 3rd/4th line center who is also a PK specialist other than Sunkdqvist.

Trying to project:
Barbashev 2.275 if they match what Sundqvist got paid.
Thomas should be around 4
Kyrou between 3 and 4

and that's already over 8.5, even with Kyrou at the low end.

As to why the seemingly higher 1st contracts after ELCs, thank Toronto for inflating the market.

Not sure where this is going to go...

[JCShutout]

Nice projection on Barbie!

[theohall]

So how do they pay the remaining 3? I don't see it at all. Still waiting for the inevitable Sanford trade, but have a terrible fear we will be stuck with watching him continue to play crappy hockey.

Doing a little further digging... didn't take much.

Kyrou is getting paid. Last season for Kyrou projects to 21G and 31A.
Thomas isn't. Thomas played 33 games, yes, 33, yet only produced 12 points?? That's not getting it done, especially in a contract year. Yes, the Blues jacked with him by moving him around the lineup, but the same was done to Kyrou, which eliminates that excuse. Last season for Thomas projects to 4G, 13A. Seriously? And he is supposed to be the Blues up and coming Center?? When multiple defenseman and Sanford have better projections than Thomas does, it's an issue. So this is who is going to get screwed on a contract if the Blues keep Sanford.

Edit: Someone else pointed out once Tarasenko is traded, this is a non-issue. My reply is the Blues can go over the cap to sign these guys, but need to be under when the season starts. What I suspect will happen is some team is going to have an injury in the preseason and that's where Tarasenko gets traded. The issue is what's the return and how does it impact the cap? If the Blues are over the cap, due to the RFA signings, the other GMs will know this and the Blues will get even less of a return than the returns Armstrong already turned down just to get under the cap. Bottom line is the Blues need Tarasenko moved - even if it means Armstrong not getting the return he wants. If one considers how many deals Armstrong has "won" losing on a Tarasenko deal isn't that bad, given the situation.

[JCShutout]

I can see Sanford and Thomas getting around $1.5-$1.6 each. (Down year for Thomas as you said) that leaves about $3m for kyrou, and I could see $2.5-$2.8.

Gets us juuuuust under the cap with tank

[theohall]

I suspect Kyrou is going to get paid more. He produced essentially the same as Schenn while putting up with being moved wherever in the lineup Berube wanted him while Schenn played consistent top 6 minutes. Average Time on Ice was 5 minutes less per game, yet Kyrou only had 2 fewer goals and 1 more assist. Comparables matter when it comes to contracts. Will he gets Schenn money? No. But I see it being way closer to 4 than 3.

If Sanford gets 1.5 again, I'll be disgusted. He doesn't deserve it. Pat Maroon, as a 4th liner with very limited ice time, out performs him. And Sanford is playing almost a full 3 minutes more per game while occasionally playing with top 6 forwards. Only time that happened with Maroon is when they threw him on the power play due to someone else being hurt. What's truly sad, the Blues could've kept Maroon and let Sanford walk. Instead, they payed Sanford 600K more per year than Maroon is currently making. Yes, Maroon got a 3 year deal with Tampa, but at 900K AAV?? That leadership and attitude wasn't worth it? Of course, no one really expected Sanford to implode like he's done. Still...

The above is one of the things about RFAs. It seems like almost all GMs who have them will over-value them, instead of letting them go when it's more prudent to let them go or trade them.

[JCShutout]

Agreed on Sanford, but he did have that big month (ish pre pandemic and had like 16 goals in under 60 games. I could see him getting the same money. (He did have 10 goals in the short year this past year)

I only figured kyrou may get less because he has only done it once (in a shortened year, which isn’t kyrou’s fault) and isn’t arbitration eligible (iirc). schenn has produced 55+ points for years). Barbie and Sunny had similar years goals and points-wise in 18-19, but sunny got just under double barbie’s aav, and double the term.

I can see da telling kyrou, do that again for a full year or two and you’re looking at Perron money.

I could be wrong, just spitballing hope.

I’d love to see tank moved regardless and they bring back bozak for a year and get a big d man on short term.

[theohall]

If I'm Kyrou's agent, my argument would be Kyrou produced more per minute than Schenn while spending considerable time on 3rd and 4th lines and deserves considerable compensation for that - 3M isn't considerable compensation. Kyrou's game took a big jump this season. Yes, we would like to see if it continues, but with what RFAs are getting on 1st contracts after ELCs now, especially if their performance makes big strides, I don't see it being a 3Mish deal. I get your point about DA trying to pull the "do it again" thing, but I don't think that's going to fly with Kyrou's camp. Were this 4 years ago, before Toronto started handing out mega-contracts to RFAs on 1st contracts after ELCs, I could see DA getting away with the "do it again" thing. In today's atmosphere, I don't see that flying at all, even with the limited cap space.

[JCShutout]

I see what you’re saying, but then why did Barbie get half of sunny’s salary and term after 18-19? That was only two years ago.

Barbie: 80gp 14g 12a
Sunny: 74gp 14g 17a

Heck buch scored 21g in 64 games after 18-19 and signed a 2 year deal for a little over $3m. The year before that he had scored 14g in 74 games.

[theohall]

Those were 3 years ago... the culture has changed. We'll see... If Kyrou does sign for around 3, I'd be surprised. Happy for the Blues management group and the team being able to have some flexibility, just not expecting it.

[JCShutout]

Yeah, I mean, you may be right, I’m just guessing based on the couple examples I remember from the blues. It would be interesting to try to find comps who signed last year, but I’m unwilling to dig that deep. We’ll see.

[JCShutout]

I think this ensures we get everyone in under the cap, so now the blues can deal tank on their own time.

[glen a richter]

That’s a damn steal for Kyrou.

[WaukeeBlues]

Great deal. Gets a little money in Kyrou's pocket and by the time the contract is over he'll have 2 more years of stats and he'll be arb eligible and can start throwing some leverage around.

Great deal for both parties.

[theohall]

Definitely a steal. Good call, JC!

Interesting with Sanford applying for arbitration. I'm guessing the Blues offered him the same as his prior contract (1.5M AAV) which is the minimum qualifying offer and he thinks he deserves a raise. I don't see that going well for either side if it actually reaches arbitration. There is a reason marginable to average players who actually reach arbitration wind up traded a ridiculous percentage of the time. Largely because the team has to layout why they believe said player doesn't deserve a raise.

[JCShutout]

Ruh roh… if Sanford is getting 2… how are we going to afford Thomas?

Edit: I guess since rt isn’t arbitration eligible, maybe he gets Sanford’s old deal putting us juuuuuust barely under the cap

[theohall]

At least it's only 1 year for Sanford. And next season Sanford reaches UFA status, so he won't have the guarantee of a minimum contract offer matching his current contract (or slightly more) which applies to RFAs.

As to Thomas - if he comes in at 1.5, great. If not, it will take moving Tarasenko. That's it. Given Thomas dramatic drop in production, I can see 1.5 for 1 or 2 years easily happening. Just like Kyrou, he'd still be an RFA afterwards, but will have the advantage of arbitration if he improves like he should.

[glen a richter]

I realize this is probably nowhere near Army's thought process, and I don't like the Sanford signing one bit, but given Thomas' drop in production, Tarasenko's trade request and the apparent difficulty in trading him, and the existence of about 1000 centers in the system is it possible that Tarasenko and Thomas get packaged to sweeten a return? Sanford holds a place for another season while they figure out what to do with some of the guys who are maybe ready to get a shot at the NHL level and then he's gone after this year?

[WaukeeBlues]

I realize this is probably nowhere near Army's thought process, and I don't like the Sanford signing one bit, but given Thomas' drop in production, Tarasenko's trade request and the apparent difficulty in trading him, and the existence of about 1000 centers in the system is it possible that Tarasenko and Thomas get packaged to sweeten a return? Sanford holds a place for another season while they figure out what to do with some of the guys who are maybe ready to get a shot at the NHL level and then he's gone after this year?

Depends what the return is (as always) but in a vacuum man I hope not. He's our best young center by far.

I'm over it with this team. Between Petro and Tarasenko we are so incredibly mediocre now. Who's our best player? O'Reilly I guess? Schenn? With the benefit of hindsight it's looking more and more like the cup window slammed shut when Petro left and Tarasenko's health re-failed. I think it's over, I don't see another run in this group.

The Athletic puts the Blues at 18th in their recent offseason power rankings. I guess you can argue some spots higher, but still... we are in the sh**y messy middle of the league. I'm so pumped to struggle to make the playoffs to be a quick out for the next 2-3 years until management decides it's time for a full-on rebuild.

</rant>
</pessimistic>

[theohall]

There is also the question about Parayko's back. Has it healed with rest? Will it flair up again with contact? If it hasn't healed or flairs up again, that's a major issue with the lack of RHD on this team. Not re-signing Petro was largely based on having both Faulk and Parayko - but Parayko is a huge question mark right now for that single reason. If he is healed and it doesn't flair up, I can see this team rebounding defensively. There is some LHD talent that needs to be given a real opportunity. Among the forwards, though, Berube is going to have to let some younger forwards "play through it" without pulling the crap of benching them for most of a game, healthy scratching them for the next, followed by sticking them on 4th lines - like they repeatedly did with Thomas and Kyrou. IMO, there isn't enough scoring in the Top 6 without a) Kyrou getting consistent top 6 minutes and b) someone like Kostin stepping up. There is also the "chemistry" question. Which of the new guys will work best with Schenn?

Lines:
1) Perron/ROR/Buchnevich
1a) Saad/Schenn/Kyrou
3) Sanford/Thomas/Kostin
4) Clifford/Barbashev/Sundqvist
MacEachern as the 13th forward unless someone else steps up.
Why Sanford 3 and Sundqvist 4? It puts a LH center and a RH center on each line, so where faceoffs happen doesn't matter. Faceoff location determines which player takes the draw. I'd prefer seeing Sundqvist get more time, but Barbashev isn't a 3rd line center.

Defense:
Krug/Faulk
Scandella/Parayko
Mikkola/Bortuzzo
Plenty of options for 7th D with the possibility to play up between Perunovich, Santini, Tucker, and Walman. IMO, Perunovich and Tucker are the two most likely to take that 7 spot - Perunovich on skill and Tucker on size. The only issue being a bunch of lefties other than Santini. There is zero RHD signed by the Blues for the minor league level right now (Reinke has not been re-signed, yet). My bet is Santini winds up in the minors and gets recalled if Bortuzzo gets hurt, which is inevitable.

No, it doesn't look like a true contending team, unless someone makes a major jump in production - the two big ones being Thomas and Kyrou - along with the defense actually playing defense like they haven't since the beginning of the bubble playoffs.

[glen a richter]

For the longest time I argued about the importance of a functional 4th line and lo and behold they finally put one on the ice and win the Cup.

Now how long have I been saying they need to address RHD in the system, maybe when they finally do they'll win another one.