Blues Top Ten Pick Push 2011!!

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kodos
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Re: Blues Top Ten Pick Push 2011!!

Post by kodos »

So...

If Toronto wins, we're 10th regardless of what happens in our game

If we lose, we pick 10th no matter what they do

If we win and they lose we pick 11th (and lose the pick)

If they lose and we get a point we pick 11th (and lose the pick)

Correct?
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cprice12
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Re: Blues Top Ten Pick Push 2011!!

Post by cprice12 »

If you want the best shot at a better player, you'll root for the Blues to win as much as possible and finish outside the bottom 10 this year so Colorado takes the pick and we keep our first round pick next year. If we finish in the bottom 10 this year, we keep the pick this year (or we have the option of keeping it) and Colorado gets our first rounder next year.
So either way we are losing a 1st rounder.

1) The draft is much deeper next year (this year's draft sucks).
2) We'd have a #1 pick to possibly trade at the deadline next season to acquire a need.
3) They could package their #1 pick next year with something and always move up in the draft if they really want to.

Some have said that if we lose the pick this year, "we'd be a year behind on development of our next 1st round pick." I don't think that's worth rooting for the Blues to keep the pick this year because:
1) Players develop at different rates. Besides, there is no guarantee that a player drafted this year will be in the league before a player drafted next year anyway...if he ever makes the club at all.
2) A chance at a better player is worth waiting another year to get.
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Re: Blues Top Ten Pick Push 2011!!

Post by kodos »

I disagree. I want them to get the pick this year.

I think the reason they are calling this draft weak is the lack of real gamebreakers in the in the top 5. I think depth wise it's probably fine. I mean, how much variation can there really be from year to year?

I do admit that I'm speaking purely hypothetically and don't really know.
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Re: Blues Top Ten Pick Push 2011!!

Post by cprice12 »

kodos wrote:I disagree. I want them to get the pick this year.

I think the reason they are calling this draft weak is the lack of real gamebreakers in the in the top 5. I think depth wise it's probably fine. I mean, how much variation can there really be from year to year?

I do admit that I'm speaking purely hypothetically and don't really know.
I dunno. Everything I am reading says the 2012 draft is going to be killer. Lots of top end talent. Granted, it's over a year away...but that's what people are saying.
It would absolutely suck for the Blues to not have a 1st round pick that year.

The 2011 draft has a few guys who could be franchise guys, then some so-so talent, and then it really drops off in the middle of round 1.
They're saying anyone outside the top three or four are going to be career depth players and that's about it.
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Re: Blues Top Ten Pick Push 2011!!

Post by kodos »

Well, it's out of our hands anyway. Whatever happens will happen.

All I know is that whatever it is, we all know it will be the worst possible outcome.

The Avs will probably get our 11th pick this year and draft the next Petr Forsberg or something. Or we will pick this year get a nobody... and then completely suck next year and give our great pick to the Avs who will pick the next Joe Sakic.
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Re: Blues Top Ten Pick Push 2011!!

Post by WaukeeBlues »

cprice12 wrote:If you want the best shot at a better player, you'll root for the Blues to win as much as possible and finish outside the bottom 10 this year so Colorado takes the pick and we keep our first round pick next year. If we finish in the bottom 10 this year, we keep the pick this year (or we have the option of keeping it) and Colorado gets our first rounder next year.
So either way we are losing a 1st rounder.

1) The draft is much deeper next year (this year's draft sucks).
2) We'd have a #1 pick to possibly trade at the deadline next season to acquire a need.
3) They could package their #1 pick next year with something and always move up in the draft if they really want to.

Some have said that if we lose the pick this year, "we'd be a year behind on development of our next 1st round pick." I don't think that's worth rooting for the Blues to keep the pick this year because:
1) Players develop at different rates. Besides, there is no guarantee that a player drafted this year will be in the league before a player drafted next year anyway...if he ever makes the club at all.
2) A chance at a better player is worth waiting another year to get.
That #2 you have there (the first one) is a good thought and I hadn't considered that. If this team is really kicking some arse next year and we have a shot to do something at the trade deadline, it would be nice to have that 1st rounder to even have the option of doing so.

As far as packaging... meh. You normally don't package anything to get into the top 10 anyway, it's usually for the bottom half of the first round which, hopefully, the Blues will have as their first rounder anyway.
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Re: Blues Top Ten Pick Push 2011!!

Post by flyingnote38 »

Well, I for one am happy the Blues won tonight. Give the Aves this year's pick and get the 32nd overall back. Keep next year's for a stronger class.

One of the draft commentators a few years back said that a deep draft basically means there is a consensus over who the top 20ish players in the draft are and in an off year, once you get past the first 4 or 5 picks, there is no consensus.
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Re: Blues Top Ten Pick Push 2011!!

Post by STLADOGG »

flyingnote38 wrote:Well, I for one am happy the Blues won tonight. Give the Aves this year's pick and get the 32nd overall back. Keep next year's for a stronger class.

One of the draft commentators a few years back said that a deep draft basically means there is a consensus over who the top 20ish players in the draft are and in an off year, once you get past the first 4 or 5 picks, there is no consensus.
ahhh thats right...
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