Biggest surprises of the young season

[WaukeeBlues]

There's several, but I'll list what I think are the top three, there aren't necessarily in order...

1) Arizona Coyotes. Starting the season on a TEAR. They've opened the season 3-0 and if that wasn't enough have only allowed two goals. Two. Not only that: they're scoring. They just shut out the Ducks last night (a widely picked cup team this year) 4-0 last night. This from a team that's supposed to be in the Auston Matthews sweepstakes at the end of the year. Yea it's early, but I'm shocked.

2) Columbus Blue Jackets. On the polar end of the spectrum is the team with high expectations that has had every appearance of a dumpster fire to open the year. 0-4 to open the campaign, and an UGLY loss last night to the Senators where CBJ players threw the puck around with reckless abandon and at least two of the Sens goals came directly off turnovers. Brobovsky has looked awful in the process. Despite the fact they return a majority of the roster from last season they look like they've never played organized hockey together.

3) Martin Jones. His numbers don't appear to be sustainable but if, IF he keeps this up, he'll single handedly carry the Sharks to the playoffs. The Sharks open the season 3-0, allowing one goal off of back to back shutouts by Jones. Many pundits expected him to be good but he is roaring out of the gate.

[ecbm]

Martin Jones. His numbers don't appear to be sustainable but if, IF he keeps this up, he'll single handedly carry the Sharks to the playoffs.

Jones is good, but Niemi was pretty good last year too: 2.59, .914, 5SO in 61 starts. That wasn't really the Sharks' problem.

Also, just saying, Jones' numbers now are product of nothing but a small sample size. I mean, .987sv%? That's about as sustainable as a $1000/day coke habit...

[glen a richter]

Arizona has a slew of really good young talent. I'm not surprised that they're doing better this year.

To me, the biggest surprise of the year (so far) is right under our noses. That being the fact that Hitch was willing to carry three rookies onto the club going into the regular season.

[cardsfan04]

Arizona has a slew of really good young talent. I'm not surprised that they're doing better this year.

To me, the biggest surprise of the year (so far) is right under our noses. That being the fact that Hitch was willing to carry three rookies onto the club going into the regular season.

I'm still shocked at that. Not even from a Hitch standpoint (although that's a good point, I hadn't thought of that). How often do you see a team as talented as the Blues have 3 players make their NHL debut on opening night without the aid of injuries? That's pretty unusual.

[theohall]

...as sustainable as a $1000/day coke habit...

When did this not become sustainable? It's only 365K per year, sometimes 366K.

[Fradi]

Important things in life, you just find a way

[ecbm]

...as sustainable as a $1000/day coke habit...

When did this not become sustainable? It's only 365K per year, sometimes 366K.

Good point. No problem at all if you're getting Jarrett Stoll money!

[Robb_K]

I think Parayko's incredible rise from his playing level in a fairly low-level Us College league to playing extremely well and getting spoken of in the same sentence as The Calder Trophy is more of a surprise than Clumbus losing their first 6 games, or The Coyotes doing so well.,

[glen a richter]

The last time we had a Calder winning defenseman he turned into just Barrett Jackman. I'd rather Parayko doesn't win it and turns into Al MacInnis 2.0

[ecbm]

The last time we had a Calder winning defenseman he turned into just Barrett Jackman. I'd rather Parayko doesn't win it and turns into Al MacInnis 2.0

True, but that was a very weak class. For Parayko (or anyone not named Eichel or McDavid) to get any burn at all this year is a bit more meaningful.

[WaukeeBlues]

Arizona has a slew of really good young talent. I'm not surprised that they're doing better this year.

To me, the biggest surprise of the year (so far) is right under our noses. That being the fact that Hitch was willing to carry three rookies onto the club going into the regular season.

I'm still shocked at that. Not even from a Hitch standpoint (although that's a good point, I hadn't thought of that). How often do you see a team as talented as the Blues have 3 players make their NHL debut on opening night without the aid of injuries? That's pretty unusual.

Well we did have Lehtera and Berglund out on opening night...

[cprice12]

The last time we had a Calder winning defenseman he turned into just Barrett Jackman. I'd rather Parayko doesn't win it and turns into Al MacInnis 2.0

True, but that was a very weak class. For Parayko (or anyone not named Eichel or McDavid) to get any burn at all this year is a bit more meaningful.

Jackman did beat out Zetterberg.
But yeah...this year would be crazy for anyone to beat out McDavid or Eichel.
But with the way Parayko has been going, he'll be up there if he does this all year. Sustaining this is the tough part though. He has been outstanding.

[cardsfan04]

Arizona has a slew of really good young talent. I'm not surprised that they're doing better this year.

To me, the biggest surprise of the year (so far) is right under our noses. That being the fact that Hitch was willing to carry three rookies onto the club going into the regular season.

I'm still shocked at that. Not even from a Hitch standpoint (although that's a good point, I hadn't thought of that). How often do you see a team as talented as the Blues have 3 players make their NHL debut on opening night without the aid of injuries? That's pretty unusual.

Well we did have Lehtera and Berglund out on opening night...

Yeah, but neither of them play defense like Parayko and Edmundson. And I could be mistaken, but I don't think Lehtera was on IR. Maybe Berglund's injury added a spot for Fabbri, but I get the impression that Fabbri is here because he earned it, not because of Berglund's shoulder.

[Robb_K]

The last time we had a Calder winning defenseman he turned into just Barrett Jackman. I'd rather Parayko doesn't win it and turns into Al MacInnis 2.0

True, but that was a very weak class. For Parayko (or anyone not named Eichel or McDavid) to get any burn at all this year is a bit more meaningful.

Jackman did beat out Zetterberg.
But yeah...this year would be crazy for anyone to beat out McDavid or Eichel.
But with the way Parayko has been going, he'll be up there if he does this all year. Sustaining this is the tough part though. He has been outstanding.

The way Parayko has been playing, if he doesn't hit the rookie wall, he might score 10 goals and 30+ assists. If he scores 40+ points, AND plays decent defence, averaging 18+ minutes a game, he WILL give McDavid and Eichel are run for their money.

[glen a richter]

Parayko is a damn beast out there. He's huge, he has a rocket for a shot, he plays well beyond the level one would normally expect from a rookie, and he's got a work ethic like none other. Remember his draft year we were all hyped about Jordan Schmaltz... look how smoothly the kid from the 3rd round jumped the kid from the 1st round.

[cprice12]

Parayko is a damn beast out there. He's huge, he has a rocket for a shot, he plays well beyond the level one would normally expect from a rookie, and he's got a work ethic like none other. Remember his draft year we were all hyped about Jordan Schmaltz... look how smoothly the kid from the 3rd round jumped the kid from the 1st round.

As good as Parayko was to start the season. He's better now...which is a great, great sign.

And this is exactly why, back in the 2005, 06, 07 era, when the certain folks (who I believe no longer post here) were glad the Blues were playing poorly so they could get better draft picks which would give us the best chance of being a cup contender, didn't know what the hell they were talking about.

Our rebuild was a success, it didn't take long, and it didn't take a bunch of top 5 picks to get here.

Here are our 1st rd. picks over the past 10 years. The ONLY key player on our roster from the last 10 years that we picked in the top 10, was Pietrangelo at pick #4 in 2008. But let it also be noted, that the 15th overall pick that same year has won the Norris trophy since...Petro hasn't really come close to a Norris yet. And in the year we drafted Johnson at #1 overall, the best players in that draft (Toewes, Backstrom, Giroux, etc.) came later that round.

It's a crap shoot. High picks don't guarantee jack squat and that shouldn't be anyone's "recipe for success". You're much better off (financially and overall) as a franchise to be competitive on the ice, create/sustain a winning & positive environment in the locker room (which is hugely important), and put good money into scouting to get the best available in the mid-late 1st rd., 2nd & 3rd rd picks.

Just look at Edmonton. They have had 8 top 10 picks in the last 9 years including 4 #1 overall picks & a #3 overall pick. They should be a cup contender now and dominating the league based on the logic that high draft picks are the best route to success...but Edmonton still sucks after years of sucking and a truckload of very high draft picks. Yes, they have McDavid now...who should be/could be a star. It only took a decade of sucking to get him (and a very lucky draft lottery incident as well)...and they could STILL suck for years to come.

And this is not to say I wouldn't want the high picks if we had them, I'll certainly take them after the fact...I'm just not going to actively root for the team to fail to get the best draft pick possible...because that is quite simply an exercise in futility. It's kind of like playing the lottery every week and actually thinking you are going to win.

2005 - T.J. Oshie (24th overall pick)
2006 - Erik Johnson (1st overall pick)
2006 - Patrick Berglund (25th overall pick)
2007 - Lars Eller (13th overall pick)
2007 - Ian Cole (18th overall pick)
2007 - David Peron (26th overall pick)
2008 - Alex Pietrangelo (4th overall pick)
2009 - David Rundblad (17th overall pick)
2010 - Jaden Schwartz (14th overall pick)
2010 - Vladamir Tarasenko (16th overall pick)...we traded Rundblad (2009, 17th overall pick) to the Senators for this pick.
2011 - No 1st Rd. Pick
2012 - Jordan Schmaltz (25th overall pick)
2013 - No 1st Rd. Pick
2014 - Robert Fabbri (21st overall pick)
2015 - No 1st Rd. Pick

Other key players and where they were picked/how they were acquired:
Parayko? - 3rd rd. pick
Allen? - 2nd rd. pick
Backes? - 2nd rd. pick
Jaskin? - 2nd rd. pick
Lehtera? - 3rd rd. pick
Rattie? - 2nd rd. pick
Edmundson? - 2nd rd. pick
Elliott? - Free agent signing
Shattenkirk? - Traded for
Steen? - Traded for
Stastny? - Traded for
Brouwer? - Traded for
Bouwmeester? - Traded for

Hmmm...what started out as a simple ++ comment, turned into a full blown rant.
</rant>

[ecbm]

The last time we had a Calder winning defenseman he turned into just Barrett Jackman. I'd rather Parayko doesn't win it and turns into Al MacInnis 2.0

True, but that was a very weak class. For Parayko (or anyone not named Eichel or McDavid) to get any burn at all this year is a bit more meaningful.

Jackman did beat out Zetterberg.
But yeah...this year would be crazy for anyone to beat out McDavid or Eichel.
But with the way Parayko has been going, he'll be up there if he does this all year. Sustaining this is the tough part though. He has been outstanding.

The way Parayko has been playing, if he doesn't hit the rookie wall, he might score 10 goals and 30+ assists. If he scores 40+ points, AND plays decent defence, averaging 18+ minutes a game, he WILL give McDavid and Eichel are run for their money.

I appreciate the positivity, Robb...but you may be underestimating North Americans' appetite for hype. If either one of McDavid or Eichel have a decent year (stay healthy, 50-ish points, 15 minutes + per game) one of them will win it as long as he doesn't, you know, get arrested for possession of narcotics or beat the shit out of his girlfriend.

[WaukeeBlues]

2009 - David Rundblad (17th overall pick)
2010 - Jaden Schwartz (14th overall pick)
2010 - Vladamir Tarasenko (16th overall pick)...we traded Rundblad (2009, 17th overall pick) to the Senators for this pick.

Which may end up being the best trade in Blues history.

2011 - No 1st Rd. Pick
2012 - Jordan Schmaltz (25th overall pick)
2013 - No 1st Rd. Pick
2014 - Robert Fabbri (21st overall pick)
2015 - No 1st Rd. Pick

This still concerns me. To a point Curt I agree with you, you have to find value in later rounds from time to time to keep the farm stocked and have kids constantly coming through the system.

But take a look at the Rangers, Penguins and Bruins. All have traded away first round picks and even second round picks, repetitively, and in the Rangers case, MANY picks, to go all-in on cup runs. To their credit, the Bruins and Pens won one and the Rangers nearly have. But IMO the Rangers got one, MAYBE two more years to have a legitimate chance to win the cup and then that bubble is going to burst.

If you don't get first round picks, the percentages are still against you to get regular NHL players on your roster in the later rounds. And in the Penguins and Rangers cases they've also traded away second round picks.

I'm not crazy about the fact the Blues have made the bad habit of trading first round picks lately. They're too valuable and in that Ryan Miller trade we just got outright fleeced. Yea we've gotten lucky (which is what I've considered it because once you get outside of the top 15-30 players I think it's a total crapshoot) with some value in later rounds but it's not sustainable.

Even Tarasenko was an aberration. He was, to many, the top rated Euro/Russian in the entire draft that year and we got a steal with the Russian factor dropping him in the rankings. If his home country was ignored he was a top 5 talent in 2010.

[Robb_K]

Other key players and where they were picked/how they were acquired:
Parayko? - 3rd rd. pick
Allen? - 2nd rd. pick
Backes? - 2nd rd. pick
Jaskin? - 2nd rd. pick
Lehtera? - 3rd rd. pick
Rattie? - 2nd rd. pick
Edmundson? - 2nd rd. pick
Elliott? - Free agent signing
Shattenkirk? - Traded for
Steen? - Traded for
Stastny? - Traded for
Brouwer? - Traded for
Bouwmeester? - Traded for

Stastny was signed as a $7 million per year UFA. But, I agree, to some extent,with your main point. But, it is better on average, and in the long run, to not trade away 1st Round draft choices. It is also good to foster a winning atmosphere, and not "tank" just to get super high draft choices, as we saw when we got the #1 choice, and no "generational players" were available.

[glen a richter]

Bear in mind that Shattenkirk, who was a #14 overall pick the year after we took Johnson, was traded for Johnson... and yes, I get that I'm ignoring the other players in that deal, but what happened was essentially trading the #1 pick this year for the #14 pick next year and the #14 turned into the better player. Aside from drafting Toews instead of Johnson, that couldn't have really worked out a whole lot better in the long haul.